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This AV referendum mularkey (Read 26827 times)

DaveC

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#50 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 07, 2011, 11:12:13 am
If I pointed out to you that what you'll end up with is something like we have here in Australia then which way would you vote?!  :worms:

I would generally agree that any change from FPTP is good but at the moment we're not a good advert for the alternative.

No, the pun was not deliberate!

chris05

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#51 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 07, 2011, 11:20:40 am
If I pointed out to you that what you'll end up with is something like we have here in Australia then which way would you vote?!  :worms:

I would generally agree that any change from FPTP is good but at the moment we're not a good advert for the alternative.

No, the pun was not deliberate!

I don't know a lot about Australian politics but having quickly googled it there seems to be a problem with an unrepresentative senate as a result of the voting system. What are the key points for/against the alternative system in your opinion?

slackline

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#52 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 07, 2011, 11:44:49 am
There is also the fact that you are legally obliged to vote in Australia and face a fine if you do not.

I was surprised to find this out when I lived there, because to my mind it will screw up the voting when people who simply want to avoid a fine go along and scribble their numbers down in an essentially random order. 

If all things were equal AV should be relatively robust to such approaches (one random order is just as likely as another), but because of likely bias in campaigning there will be a subtle effect that those doing so will preferentially go for those who had the flashiest campaigns/most advertising.

DaveC

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#53 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 07, 2011, 11:53:15 am
...there seems to be a problem with an unrepresentative senate as a result of the voting system. What are the key points for/against the alternative system in your opinion?

The senate is theoretically more representative than the lower house as it is elected by full proportional representation (state-by-state) - although the senate as elected last year won't sit until June this year for some reason so I guess you could say the current senate is unrepresentative..confused? Join a very big club!

I would generally support AV over FPTP simply because it allows voters to express their support for minor parties without feeling that their vote is wasted, particularly if a seat is tightly contested as the 2nd preferences from minor candidates votes will be used to break a deadlock where no candidate has 50% of the vote. That is a crucial point btw, you must finish with over 50% of the vote to win a seat, if two candidates finish with 45% & 42% then the preferences from the candidates who polled the other 13% will decide it. Whether you think this is better than FPTP is entirely up to you.  :shrug:

DaveC

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#54 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 07, 2011, 12:01:43 pm
Slackers
I think you're right about compulsory voting being a bit of a game changer compared to the UK.
I will say in defense of people here that all the research I've seen suggests that most people who really don't want to vote but don't want the fine just put blank papers in the ballot box (I saw two people do it at our local polling station during the state election here a few months ago - just picked up their ballot papers then walked straight out the other door dropping their papers in the boxes as they went!)

john horscroft

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#55 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 07, 2011, 05:07:01 pm
Also, Jasper and Slackline tend to have similar, sensible views to mine regarding these sort of things be appalling bullies so I am just going to do what they tell me.  :thumbsup: ...Jasper almost makes sense on Twitter and I have seen pictures and he has good hair. ;D


....there, that all makes sense now.....  :whistle:

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magpie

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#57 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 08, 2011, 04:37:07 pm
I actually got a wee leaflet through the post the other day which explained how AV worked rather well, why they don't have that online I don't know. :shrug:


JT

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#59 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 09, 2011, 01:12:33 am
Also, what with being rather busy and all, I'm currently an undecided. Is anyone here pro FPTP? Or is that just too much political controversy for one thread... :P

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Jaspersharpe

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#61 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 18, 2011, 01:06:11 pm
For anyone still undecided....


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#62 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 19, 2011, 04:07:49 pm
Your two votes will also eventually deprive some conservative (small and big c) voters of their stash of smarties and force them to eat shit. ;-)

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#63 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 19, 2011, 06:50:11 pm
Also, what with being rather busy and all, I'm currently an undecided. Is anyone here pro FPTP? Or is that just too much political controversy for one thread... :P

Yes but I'm too busy destroying the worlds natural resources, jetting around clocking up an enourmous carbon footprint and stroking my white cat to debate the issue on here.


aLICErOBERTSfANkLUB

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#64 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 19, 2011, 08:44:13 pm
Come on people, what are we all doing to deliver the "Yes" vote?*






* Those of us voting "no" - what are you doing?

Lund

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#65 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 19, 2011, 11:32:24 pm
The BNP want proportional representation as they would get some MPs that way. They see AV as an "even less fair" system than FPTP for what they call "smaller parties" (but mean themselves) as it wouldn't actually increase the likelihood of them gaining a seat.

I would much prefer that we had PR despite the fact that the BNP would get a few MPs. As we've seen before, the more rope you give them the quicker they hang themselves anyway.

What if the BNP became the equivalent of Major's ulster unionists?  You'd have the BNP in a coalition with another party.  Would you swap Clegg for Nick Griffin?

Just askin'.

Lund

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#66 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 19, 2011, 11:40:03 pm
How on earth can anyone quantify how the last election would have panned out if AV had been used?  Exit polls ask who you voted for, not to rank them.

Some SCIENCE: http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/64/1/5.short

Quote
The 2010 BES conducted a three-wave national internet panel survey
with nearly 17,000 (16,816) respondents. The survey was in the field
immediately before, during and immediately after the official election
campaign. In addition to being asked how they actually voted, respon-
dents in the post-election wave were asked to complete an electronic
ballot form that mimicked an actual AV ballot

From the abstract, for the lazy... AV would have produced this:

Quote
The results suggest an outcome for the three main parties of Conservatives 284, Labour 248 and Liberal Democrats 89. This outcome would have radically changed the arithmetic of post-election coalition building, with the Liberal Democrats being able to form a majority coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.


Jaspersharpe

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#67 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 20, 2011, 08:01:09 am
Would you swap Clegg for Nick Griffin?

Just askin'.

That's not a very good example as Tom Elliott isn't the deputy Prime Minister and I might just not have noticed but the 8 Ulster Unionist MPs don't appear to have any great sway on government policy.

psychomansam

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#68 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 20, 2011, 08:59:02 am
Come on people, what are we all doing to deliver the "Yes" vote?*






* Those of us voting "no" - what are you doing?


Well I've put my opinion on my fb status along with a couple of links (thanks for those). Any other thoughts?

slackline

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#69 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 20, 2011, 09:13:28 am
Would you swap Clegg for Nick Griffin?

Just askin'.

That's not a very good example as Tom Elliott isn't the deputy Prime Minister and I might just not have noticed but the 8 Ulster Unionist MPs don't appear to have any great sway on government policy.

Also it would be political suicide for the cuntservatives to form a coalition with the BNP, they'd have no hope in the subsequent elections.

Good work finding some evidence, it would be so much easier if everyone quoted their sources in the first place (primarily news agencies who are fucking shit at doing so, then when a news story is linked here or in a blog people can go and read the primary source for themselves, if they're so inclined, which they should be because a lot of details are often lost in mass media).

Lund

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#70 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 20, 2011, 09:56:54 am
Would you swap Clegg for Nick Griffin?

Just askin'.

That's not a very good example as Tom Elliott isn't the deputy Prime Minister and I might just not have noticed but the 8 Ulster Unionist MPs don't appear to have any great sway on government policy.

[To be annoying: the current UUP has zero westminister seats.  (The DUP has 8 - but Tom Elliott isn't the head of the UUP).]

Sorry, was unclear: what I was referring to was (although I might be mis-remembering) John Major in the early 90s needed the ulster unionists to keep a majority in the face of eurosceptic rebellions within his own party.  (He only had a small majority anyway.)  They were the smallest bunch he could ally with in order to get stuff through.  If I'd been a UUP - I'd have wrung something out of him.

BUT.  I know Clegg is in an official coalition, and it's different.  So perhaps I was being a bit provocative.  Sorry.

My point is that with PR you have to accept that extremist politicians gain a measure of power, credibility and a platform on which to enlarge their position.  This means having your tax money paying Griffin's expenses at the very least.  I for one don't like the idea of that.  Nor do I like the idea of the other problems with PR when you have a divided electorate - and for better or worse, that is the kind of society we have in the UK; we're never going to vote on merit for one party massively over the other.  We'd have coalition after coalition.

This isn't an argument against AV.  It makes a coalition slightly more likely, but I can live with that as a compromise for my vote being a bit more useful.

In any case, a more interesting question is what are the chances of the no campaign because of self-selecting bias.  The people who go to vote in the referendum value their vote more and are more likely to vote yes because of that?

slackline

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#71 Re: This AV referendum mularkey
April 20, 2011, 10:19:20 am
My point is that with PR you have to accept that extremist politicians gain a measure of power, credibility and a platform on which to enlarge their position.  This means having your tax money paying Griffin's expenses at the very least.  I for one don't like the idea of that.  Nor do I like the idea of the other problems with PR when you have a divided electorate - and for better or worse, that is the kind of society we have in the UK; we're never going to vote on merit for one party massively over the other.  We'd have coalition after coalition.

This isn't an argument against AV.  It makes a coalition slightly more likely, but I can live with that as a compromise for my vote being a bit more useful.

In any case, a more interesting question is what are the chances of the no campaign because of self-selecting bias.  The people who go to vote in the referendum value their vote more and are more likely to vote yes because of that?

Sounds like you're confusing matters here because Proportional Representation != Alternative Vote  ;)



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