[lagerstarfish]

Also worth noting the context of local rates of infection. Yorkshire and Humber currently has the lowest in the country and my attitude to recreation will take that into account.

Yes. Don't stray into that Derbyshire. Way too dangerous

[Stuart Anderson]

Also worth noting the context of local rates of infection. Yorkshire and Humber currently has the lowest in the country and my attitude to recreation will take that into account.

Things do look very bad in the south-east, but I'm hopeful the timing of the lockdown in this region was not so tragically late.

Sheffield is on the up again.

290 cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 29 Dec-4 Jan.
The average area in England had 576*.

1,696 cases in the latest week 29 Dec-4 Jan

+652 compared with the previous week

31,610 total cases to 8 Jan

Source: BBC

[Johnny Brown]

The national context being that that rate is one of the lowest in the country, lower than it was here throughout October, and rising more slowly than it was in October, when we were put into Tier 3. I don't recall you popping up then to urge caution?

[Bonjoy]

There is widespread reporting today that the present surge in covid cases, hospitalisations and fatalities are present far worse than the March\April wave - and set to get worse.

The number of deaths at today’s rate (that will increase - but will dip - I know) equates at 500 000 a year. By a disease spread by people being near to other people - that is now 50-70% better at being transmitted than in March. 

In this context - I’m surprised that anyone who doesn’t literally have a crag within a short distance of their house is going out - or trying to self justify it. As for people climbing in groups - clearly not all from the same household - 🤦‍♂️

People just don’t seem to get that it’s WORSE than in March/April and some are behaving like it’s October...

Any increase in transmisibility is academic if you are multiplying by zero.
 Arguments regards ultra low/non zero risk have been done to death already. I won't rehash.

[Oldmanmatt]

The national context being that that rate is one of the lowest in the country, lower than it was here throughout October, and rising more slowly than it was in October, when we were put into Tier 3. I don't recall you popping up then to urge caution?

It is different this time.

Obviously I don’t know how different, because we are in a lockdown and everything is screwed up by the Xmas (inevitable) protocol breaches, but everywhere this new variant has popped up, r has exploded.

Torbay, was well below 1, less than 10 days ago. We were so far below the national average, it almost felt safe. Lower, even, than rural Devon.

As of yesterday, we were reassessed at r=1.89 or 8th worst region of England. From best, to 8th worst in a little over a week.
I’ve not seen much flouting of mask rules.
People out and about weren’t taking the piss much, even before lockdown.
The degree of polite space granting on pavements etc is remarkable.

My Uncle and his wife, started to get sick on Tuesday (actually, my dad’s cousin and a couple years older, 75/6). They’ve been, essentially, shielding since before Xmas. Both got positive tests back yesterday. Neither are doing well.
He’s such a cantankerous, loud, misogynistic, xenophobic (former RN) sweary, old coot; I’ve muted him more than once on FB, but I thought he was indestructible. No ordinary human could consume that much rum in a single sitting.
So odd to see him so scared. Cannot wrap my head around a “humble” Uncle Bob.
Strange days.

[Oldmanmatt]

There is widespread reporting today that the present surge in covid cases, hospitalisations and fatalities are present far worse than the March\April wave - and set to get worse.

The number of deaths at today’s rate (that will increase - but will dip - I know) equates at 500 000 a year. By a disease spread by people being near to other people - that is now 50-70% better at being transmitted than in March. 

In this context - I’m surprised that anyone who doesn’t literally have a crag within a short distance of their house is going out - or trying to self justify it. As for people climbing in groups - clearly not all from the same household - 🤦‍♂️

People just don’t seem to get that it’s WORSE than in March/April and some are behaving like it’s October...

Any increase in transmisibility is academic if you are multiplying by zero.
 Arguments regards ultra low/non zero risk have been done to death already. I won't rehash.

Low. Yes.
Zero. No.

And, you don’t know, like the rest of us, exactly what the risk is yet. Your data is out of date.

[SamT]

On the outdoor transmission potential - it was interesting to go out on a walk over the christmas period on a sunny, frosty morning and see just how far our breath vapour was travelling and intermingling.  Quite startling to see it actually 'lit up' and highlighted.  Made me think twice. 
Remember, what we were seeing was water droplets, from our lungs, suspended in the air.

[Stu Littlefair]

It’s zero if you’re on your own, which I’m guessing is how Jon normally does things.

That’s why I think the focus on “local” is misjudged regardless of what the guidelines say. Better to be alone and 10 miles from home than packed round remergence 5 miles from home.

[abarro81]

And both probably better than walking around the busier parks in Sheffield

[Bonjoy]

It’s zero if you’re on your own, which I’m guessing is how Jon normally does things.

That’s why I think the focus on “local” is misjudged regardless of what the guidelines say. Better to be alone and 10 miles from home than packed round remergence 5 miles from home.

Yes, exactly.
Alone, or with household.
Practically zero is also reasonable IMO, because it's still below the baseline of day to day risk. E.g. the risk associated with a single socially distanced walk in the park, in an otherwise stay at home day. To eliminate the baseline minimum is to all intents and purposes impossible (you do the maths).


Ps. For me this is all currently academic as I'm resting an elbow injury.

[Bonjoy]

I also totally agree with Stu's point about 'local'. As mentioned earlier, there could be messy scenes at Burbage today with Sheffielders trying to stay in postcode.

[Oldmanmatt]

It’s zero if you’re on your own, which I’m guessing is how Jon normally does things.

That’s why I think the focus on “local” is misjudged regardless of what the guidelines say. Better to be alone and 10 miles from home than packed round remergence 5 miles from home.

Ok Stu, correct me if I’m wrong and view this as a question not a statement.

This is how it has been explained to me (or how I interpreted what was said).

The new variants (more than one) appear to be more infectious, by a significant factor, probably greater than 1.5.
This appears to follow from an improved affinity that reduces the viral load threshold for infection.
This significantly reduces the required exposure times to and (therefore) quantities of, virus required to achieve infection.

This change, brings Fomite transmission, once thought a low risk, back into play.

It’s not that the half life of the virus on a given surface has changed, it appears to decay at the same rate; it’s that the length of time it remains at viable transmission levels is extended in line with it’s reduced infectious load requirement. 
Still a lower risk than aerosol of droplet transmission, but no long negligible.

Going climbing, especially alone, is still a very low risk activity.

However, the total risk to be considered is not simply the act of climbing.

The total administrative burden and associated support activities factor into the equation, significantly.

If you drive, that is increasing the total risk. Not, specifically the act of driving, the ancillary activities that are required or become more probable, because you have increased the complexity of the activity.

Increased need for fuel, perhaps, being the obvious ancillary activity increased beyond your baseline, lockdown, requirement.
If (if) the Fomite transmission hypothesis is borne out, even using pay at pump, increases your risk of either catching or transmitting the virus, significantly.

That is, climbing is not a zero risk activity and potentially has a greater than negligible to a lower end of moderate, risk attached to it and significant caution and thought is needed to control that risk.

Somebody, earlier in the thread said something about people saying something so egregious that they felt compelled to counter it. For me, describing the risk as “zero” or “minimising” (failing to acknowledge) a low, but real, risk is to encourage (by omission) people (less thoughtful people) to ignore basic precautions.
Precautions that might well be shown to have been unnecessary in time, but cost little to indulge now and might be, actually, wholly necessary.

Like, seriously, do what you want. Just be careful. For all the various reasons people have mentioned.   

[Johnny Brown]

Yep, the new strain is a real concern. However I don't think that's the only thing going on. Current stats are almost the exact opposite of when the tier system was introduced. The stats show the previous higher tier areas and subsequent lockdown-lite was largely successful in bringing down case numbers in those areas to low levels by early Dec. However those areas going into the xmas period off the back of a low-tier/ doing ok period are now in big trouble. For those areas it looks like xmas and the subsequent delay in locking down will be very costly and may well require further escalation. For us in Sheffield this lockdown is early and hard, and off the back of a long period where we were conscious of doing badly in the national context - so I think highly likely to be effective without escalation. But like many I'll be monitoring levels closely and modifying my behaviour and business as appropriate.

[Stu Littlefair]

Everything you say is true Matt. These are all downsides to someone driving for a solitary boulder somewhere. As is the small but non zero risk of landing badly and breaking an arm, say.

I’m worried about transmission with the new virus. I don’t want to be around people any more than I have to at the moment indoors or out. It’s a gorgeous sunny day in sheffield today. I wouldn’t even think of going to burbage.

But getting out into open space also does a lot of good that should be offset against the harm. My judgement is the benefits could outweigh the risks for some people - and they should feel able to go out and climb if they want.

Others won’t have that option and will have to find other releases.

Others still will be able to manage without going climbing. Perhaps they have a nice walk from their door, or an attic board they enjoy? If they can avoid driving out to climb that’s great IMO.

I’m not quite sure how to word this but I think there’s space to say thanks to all those who choose to be rigid in their adherence to the guidance without pillorying those who wish to ignore the letter of the guidance whilst following its spirit.

[tomtom]

Yep, the new strain is a real concern. However I don't think that's the only thing going on. Current stats are almost the exact opposite of when the tier system was introduced. The stats show the previous higher tier areas and subsequent lockdown-lite was largely successful in bringing down case numbers in those areas to low levels by early Dec. However those areas going into the xmas period off the back of a low-tier/ doing ok period are now in big trouble. For those areas it looks like xmas and the subsequent delay in locking down will be very costly and may well require further escalation. For us in Sheffield this lockdown is early and hard, and off the back of a long period where we were conscious of doing badly in the national context - so I think highly likely to be effective without escalation. But like many I'll be monitoring levels closely and modifying my behaviour and business as appropriate.

JB - it seems to be shooting up everywhere in the last two weeks. Here in Manchester the Nov lockdown following T3 (which had stopped the rot abs was bringing it down) saw cases in the city come down from 600 to just above 100 per 100k. At present it’s back up to over 400 - with 100% increases each week for the last two weeks. Under T4 (since Boxing Day) and now lockdown. It’s only going one way fast at the moment here.

As OMM said - Torbay going from 1 to near 2 R rate in less than two weeks.

Something about either how the new strain operates - or whether we’ve reached some threshold with levels of community infection (or both) means it’s going up rapidly everywhere.

I wonder if it’s a bit of both - looking at Hull as an example from earlier. Hull had low rates - since May - right through until Oct when it almost overnight went up to the worst spot in the country. There I think it was a case of community complaceny - and then it became embedded and took off.

Personally I’m much more concerned now than I have been since March/early April. Something - as yet unknown - makes this version much better. If it’s through droplets (as before) as there is a square to cubic drop off with distance of concentration from source - a 50-70% increase in transmission indicates (to me at least) a much greater - much greater viral load.

I’ve gone back to avoiding all shops (even a takeaway coffee etc.. that I liked from the great shop up the road) and wearing a mask all the time outside (unless there really is no one else around). Maybe I’m over-reacting - and judging by responses to my posts on here many do - but I reall don’t like how this surge/peak is shaping up.

We’ll know a lot more in a week when the numbers ‘should’ (I really hope) drop off again. If they don’t (doom warning - sorry..) then I suspect we’ll see an even stronger lockdown. Maybe with full stay at home orders.

I know the above should probably go in the other thread.

[abarro81]

Given the new variant, how many kids are still in school, and how many people seem to still be going to non-essential workplaces in some way I'd be kind of surprised if we got notable declines in cases in the next couple of weeks.

[iain]

A few things to consider:

- The current lockdown is not as strict as last spring and will not have the same effect at dampening infection rates, particularly of the new variant.

- The north in general is already struggling with hospital admissions with the rates around or above spring's peak, and unlike other areas it has been like that since October. With rates rising again there are far fewer beds in hospital capacity to look after the ill.
Regardless of capacity anecdotally the hospitals and staff are already struggling with the ongoing stress of this.

- Sheffield specifically is already in that situation without the new variant being widespread, it's going to get worse.

I personally don't give a hoot about how people exercise or where they travel (in contrast to the police apparently), the important thing for me is minimising personal contact and transmission any way I can outside of bubble commitments and dealing with unavoidables like work/shopping in the best way possible. That's the best I can do.

[Oldmanmatt]

Sorry.
I’ll get my coat.

[tomtom]

Sorry.
I’ll get my coat.

Did you see the German covid stay at home advert Matt? Worth googling - a good idea.

I see the govt has launched a mission fear advertising campaign today....

[Oldmanmatt]

Sorry.
I’ll get my coat.

Did you see the German covid stay at home advert Matt? Worth googling - a good idea.

I see the govt has launched a mission fear advertising campaign today....

Government actively trying to scare not calm.

Says everything really.

[iain]

Sorry.
I’ll get my coat.

 

[sdm]

Increased need for fuel, perhaps, being the obvious ancillary activity increased beyond your baseline, lockdown, requirement.

If (if) the Fomite transmission hypothesis is borne out, even using pay at pump, increases your risk of either catching or transmitting the virus, significantly.

Filling up with fuel should be close to zero transmission risk if your aim is to make it so:

Pull up at pump, open app. Wash hands, put on gloves. Fill up with fuel. Throw away gloves. Wash hands. Drive away.

I see it as a similar situation to bouldering in that it should be close to zero transmission risk if sensible precautions are applied. But most people aren't applying those precautions (some bias here: the more precautions boulderers apply, the less visible they are).

If someone travels to go bouldering alone/with their household/bubble and takes every precaution to minimise spread (quiet/open venues, keeping large distances, avoiding busy paths, not sharing problems/areas, washing hands etc), I don't have a problem with that.

I do have a problem with the continued acceptance of far higher risk but allowed and generally accepted activities such as:

1) employers forcing people in to the workplace when their job can be done at home
2) token gestures to make places "covid secure" to force people in to workplaces
3) exploitation of 'key worker' definitions leading to far too many children still being in school
4) unnecessary shopping trips and failing to minimise transmission on these trips (not wearing a mask correctly, not distancing, shopping as a whole family etc etc)
5) unnecessary public transport use and failure to observe distancing and mask wearing
6) gatherings in homes

These are the sort of areas where education and enforcement should be focussed.

[mark s]

I've been to the roaches today. It's certainly quieter than of late. I didn't see any police while I was there but I would put money on them visiting today. I saw people I could tell were not local, you could tell same as people in a new pub trying to find the toilet. Also 2 cars in the disabled bay and both had parking tickets. That to me says they don't know about the parking issues up there.
I think this weekend will be a chance for the police to see what happens. The people who live on the roaches Road will soon be on the phone to the police if it gets busy as they have done before.

Anyway the rock is all minging wet and ice on the higher bits, not that it will stop all these new climbers thinking wet rock just needs chalk.

[mrjonathanr]

I saw people I could tell were not local, you could tell same as people in a new pub trying to find the toilet.

I went there the other week, before lockdown, and saw people who clearly weren’t regulars at the Upper Tier boulders.

There was a wedding party with bride and groom, fully dressed in white, photographer and people swigging champagne bottles. I didn’t see any chalk.

[mark s]

I did my good deed though. 2 women with a tribe of kids were just leaving the car parked in the disabled bay. I asked her if she had seen what was on the window of the car in front. Why, shouldn't I park there? She was right in front of the sign with the answer to her question. She said thanks and moved it. Right into the half space at the start of the proper parking. Half on the road, half in the bay. I didn't say anything else to her.