[Will Hunt]

My concern is that this is going to go on for a year or more and it's not practical to isolate for that entire period. I think we will end up in a complete lockdown because that will be the only way to get the careless to comply, but is responsible climbing/walking as discussed above really that dangerous when compared against the threats associated with a housebound population? For instance, I'm quite worried about my kids' development if housebound for a year. Then there's obesity etc

[TobyD]

Yesterday I was a 3 on the poll list - today I’m a 4.

I see all the articles about idiots going out in groups and doing things - and realise that really I’m an idiot. My trip to the boulders - whilst very good for my wellbeing - is completely non-essential.

I'm beginning to come to the same conclusion. I went out but it just didn't really feel right. It's hard because it's objectively less risky than so much of life that's continuing but, as you say, non essential.

[TobyD]

My concern is that this is going to go on for a year or more and it's not practical to isolate for that entire period. I think we will end up in a complete lockdown because that will be the only way to get the careless to comply, but is responsible climbing/walking as discussed above really that dangerous when compared against the threats associated with a housebound population? For instance, I'm quite worried about my kids' development if housebound for a year. Then there's obesity etc

I'm increasingly not sure that something not being practical is an argument against it. The world is really changing at the moment. What's now every day I wouldn't have believed a few months back.

[tomtom]

@will.

I day or two ago I’d have agreed with you. But the problem I see is that our ‘sneak out for solo exercise on a nice day’ strategy relies on most other people in the country NOT doing the same. Which clearly from yesterday didn’t happen.

Everyone I saw yesterday (the pennine way at Blackstone was busy with walkers) were couples or small family groups.  So I expect most people thought the same as me/us - let’s find somewhere quiet and do some self isolated exercise. I’ll wager many of those who flocked to the seaside yesterday thought the same too - but everyone had the same idea.

Having our kids cooped up or just doing garden/back yard based activities is far from ideal - but better do this for a year than 100k people die?? Etc..

Wish it wasn’t like this. I guess we can’t ignore that our activity however esoteric we make it still engages with going outside and travelling.

[Murph]

Same here tom. I took the kids out of school & nursery a couple of days early and have since been a bit disappointed by the disregard going on out there still. Parents groups really are arranging meet ups and fun things for kids, people are going on holiday and it's all innocent fun but it's ridiculous. If that medium article is only half right the healthcare system really is going to collapse and when it does 100k is going to seem like a birthday present. I dont think the message has been communicated at all really let alone not really getting across.

If outside has turned into a bank holiday weekend then though I'm sure where I was going wouldn't be busy I really don't think I should go and add to it even at 7am. It isn't essential by any means.

Probably an overreaction as where I would go really wouldn't be busy...hmm..anyway spent so long thinking about it it isn't 7am any more!

[kac]

Having a poll is a bit like turkeys organising one for whether Christmas should go ahead and the it helped my mental health argument is irrelevant to why we are being asked to do this. I hate to judge others and if I wasnt ill, hopefully just with a cold, I know how tempted I would be to go climbing. However, Tomtom is spot on. Anyone who thinks its fine needs to consider why its banned in France and Italy. Do you really think its just an unnecessary over reaction? I suspect theres a fair bit of lock in style pub drinking going on by those who think the same. Its easy for us to see how selfish this would be and we are finding arguments to justify what we want to do as individuals. If everyone does that we really will be in the shit

[Oldmanmatt]

There is a photo doing the rounds today, of a piece of Chinese graffiti (supposedly) that translates (again supposedly) as:

“ We can’t go back to normal. Normal was the problem”.


Fake or not, it’s not far off the mark.

[Bradders]

is responsible climbing/walking as discussed above really that dangerous when compared against the threats associated with a housebound population?

This I think is the salient point. Responsible, solo, bouldering and walking, from everything I've seen, is pretty much completely safe from a transmission perspective and has multiple benefits.

Separately, we might end up having to stop doing it because people are simply incapable of acting responsibly in general. It has nothing to do with whether the activity itself is a risk (which it really isn't).

Anyway, I'm going to follow the official advice. There's enough to worry about without trying to second guess things myself.

[Oldmanmatt]

Actually, if this becomes prolonged, Organization is likely the best option.

BMC (?) organised, authority sanctioned, monitored sessions.


Now,

Doesn’t that sound like dystopian, hellish, soul crushing, shit?

Yes, it does.

However, it’s not really any worse than A.N.Other climbing club weekend meet, or even a night at the wall.

[205Chris]

For me even if I go somewhere esoteric by myself there's still a risk I'll be involved in an RTC on the way to the crag, or at the very least at some point I'm going to need to put fuel in my car, which even if I take precautions still increases the risk of transmission.

I get both of the above seem like tiny details but I think on the scale of impact that's being talked about, the tiny things will make a difference.

I'm concerned that Italy has far stronger social distancing measures in force than the UK at the moment but currently it doesn't seem to be working.

[Bonjoy]

This weekend is showing that people don't 'get it' and lock down is necessary, the sooner the better IMO. In the meantime people with the intelligence to find a truly isolated corner to mourn the death of all fun should perhaps keep it to themselves.

[abarro81]

My concern is that this is going to go on for a year or more and it's not practical to isolate for that entire period.

Having our kids cooped up or just doing garden/back yard based activities is far from ideal - but better do this for a year than 100k people die?? Etc..

The following post may prove controversial...
Initially I would have agreed with you without thinking about it too much tomtom. Then I googled how many people die in the UK, it's ~600k/yr. Obviously 100k is a number plucked somewhat from thin air, but (big but), were this to be accurate, that's a 17% increase in death rates for a year (would actually be less than this given that those closest to death are the most likely to die from this - let's plump for say 10-15% since these are swags anyway). is a 15% spike in death rates for a year worth locking the entire population inside apart from a 2hr visit to the shop each week, for a year? We're back to Pete's ethics question here, but when you frame it with those numbers (huge swags obviously), it seems to me that you're into the realm of the answer not necessarily being obvious.

[Doylo]

I'm concerned that Italy has far stronger social distancing measures in force than the UK at the moment but currently it doesn't seem to be working.

And just under 800 died there in a day.

[ali k]

Weird for an arch Libertarian to be taking the lead on this

I have to say I respect what Johnson is doing. I think he's trying his best to give people s chance to behave sensibly before legally enforceable measures are brought in.

I disagree completely with this. You can’t blame people for doing what they’ve been doing when there’s been no clear and consistent advice from the government. In his Friday press conference Johnson said about mother’s day that he would “certainly be sending her my very best wishes and hope to get to see her”. Today that’s shifted to advising everyone to stay away from their mothers. The journalists asking the question re: Mother’s Day could see that people might need advice on what to do and he didn’t have the foresight to come up with an answer in advance and just waffled.

Similarly, the public health advice has been vague guidance that getting outside and exercising with family members is ok. So it’s not really a surprise that on a sunny Saturday people are going to flock to parks, beaches, national trust properties etc thinking that they’re going to be relatively isolated.

There’s been no foresight or proactive advice. It’s all been reactive.

[teestub]

is responsible climbing/walking as discussed above really that dangerous when compared against the threats associated with a housebound population?

This I think is the salient point. Responsible, solo, bouldering and walking, from everything I've seen, is pretty much completely safe from a transmission perspective and has multiple benefits.

Separately, we might end up having to stop doing it because people are simply incapable of acting responsibly in general. It has nothing to do with whether the activity itself is a risk (which it really isn't).

I think the problem is that the relative risk of things is not what is at issue, rather the perception of the situation.

I was going to go to a remote crag where you park in a small hamlet today, and the more I thought about it, I just saw this as a microcosm of what happened in all the honeypots yesterday. I just imagined the people in the hamlet thinking ‘who is this incomer spreading the virus’. People are not particularly rational at the best of times and even less so in extreme circumstances.

It’s for these sorts of reasons I’ve come down on 2T’s side of the line now.

[mrjonathanr]

Abarro, that is back to the fallacy the govt promoted 2 weeks ago -that a number from a data model represents completely controllable reality.

It is also wildly out because if the virus spreads uncontrollably the NHS will crash and mortality will be very high. Deaths from accidents and other illnesses will also soar as a result.

Take the initial assumption of 80% infection, 4% of 53m is well over 2 million  people. I see no reason to view that as improbable or exaggerated.

[Davo]

Personally I am also concerned about the balance here between who (and how many ) we are saving and the harms we are doing to achieve this. We have and are about to shut down the country with no clear end game and I am not sure we have had enough discussion of whether or not this is overall the right thing. We are asking many young people, families, etc to make enormous sacrifices to save a large number of elderly people, of whom many would die anyway. Shutting businesses, the schools and the country down will undoubtedly cause much financial hardship and damage mental health, I see no easy way to balance this out myself. For example we have a six year old that is an only child, is it really fair to keep him on his own for the next 3-6mths? That seems like nigh on child cruelty to me...

Also, I wonder about those older people who are currently fit eg someone who is 78 with good health and lives alone but is out and active and social. To them 3-6 mths of isolation is actually a significant part of their quality life expectancy and I am not certain that in their position I would isolate.

I would not question the lockdown so much if I felt that the scientists and the govt had debated this and have us an idea of the costs and benefits here.

I suspect this sounds harsh to many here but it is just my uninformed opinion

[TobyD]

Dave, I hate to point out that everyone will die at some point and you get into pretty muddy ethics with the best interests of one individual against another arguments. 
In Wuhan,  extremely draconian measures seem to have improved the situation.  Noone knows that much about this virus yet but doesn't this seem worth a go?

[Davo]

Hi Toby

Yep I agree, I just think that we need to talk about it rather than just assume that everyone agrees with what is happening. In terms of Wuhan I also agree it looks promising but I do wonder whether or not it will just resurface somewhere else. In terms of value of life, the NHS does this all the time when it allocates scarce resources

[nai]

I'm concerned that Italy has far stronger social distancing measures in force than the UK at the moment but currently it doesn't seem to be working.

They introduced isolation on 9th March and shut the shops on 11th yet still the cases rise.  Hopefully they might be about to peak if it is a 2 week incubation.  Looks like we're about three weeks behind them

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

We need to isolate so that the NHS have a dripping tap to deal with rather than a bursting dam although I fear now that it's too late.  It's going to be very messy for anyone in the NHS, everyone I know who works in healthcare is pretty scared right now.  Lack of direction from management and lack of PPE equipment. Can you believe Sheffield have no FFP3 masks.

And it's not just old people dying, it's other patients not getting their treatment and operations because all resources are being deployed on this.

I was also a 3 but now a 4.  Everyone stay at home.

[TobyD]

It's going to be very messy for anyone in the NHS, everyone I know who works in healthcare is pretty scared right now.  Lack of direction from management and lack of PPE equipment. Can you believe Sheffield have no FFP3 masks.

And it's not just old people dying, it's other patients not getting their treatment and operations because all resources are being deployed on this.

I'm absolutely shitting myself at work at the moment. Half of my colleagues are in denial, the others seem to be constantly on the edge of a nervous breakdown

[Muenchener]

If your climbing is more important than someone else’s life, you are a fucking cunt.

It’s going to be hard, after this, to respect a lot of people.

Couldn't agree more. I'm reading elsewhere that some tosser took a big fall off of Cyrn Las yesterday and had to be rescued. Should have been left to die, or self-rescue by crawling back to fucking Sussex. I hope they're being treated with the contempt they deserve in Ysbyty Gwynedd

[Murph]

how many people die in the UK, it's ~600k/yr. Obviously 100k is a number plucked somewhat from thin air, but (big but), were this to be accurate, that's a 17% increase

Totally get your thinking here Alex but i reckon 100k would be a really good outcome from where we are now if the medium article is right, social distancing is applied loosely and the virus mutates etc. It could be really bad. 100k would just be a really bad flu season (sometimes claiming c25k) and the economy wouldn't have been turned off to prevent it.

[Oldmanmatt]

Simon.

I will post it again

Even if I moderate the language.

Ban me if you will.

What is being said here is disgusting.

[36chambers]

We are asking many young people, families, etc to make enormous sacrifices to save a large number of elderly people, of whom many would die anyway.
...
For example we have a six year old that is an only child, is it really fair to keep him on his own for the next 3-6mths? That seems like nigh on child cruelty to me...

and my good friend has an otherwise healthy 5 year old, who is in the uber high risk category. It's about way more than just old people.