[tomtom]

Back to CV19.

Here in Manchester there has been an uptick in case numbers (c20%) in the last week. I suspect thats driven partly by the large number of lateral flow tests being taken by school children at the moment (the figures show reported test results increasing massively). Wondering how much of this uptick in cases is down to increased testing or increased transmission (e.g. schools going back)? Or of course both.

My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?

It’s rising in most areas in greater Manchester (eg bury, Bolton etc..). not just in Manchester... the GM region had lagged behind the England rate for a few weeks until a couple of weeks ago when it dropped quite sharply. Now rising...

[SA Chris]

My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?

A prison sounds to me like the perfect breeding ground for transmission. Add to the inmates x amount of people who work there and enter and leave on a daily basis and I'd have thought you would have a crazy amount of possible transmission vectors?

[Oldmanmatt]

Back to CV19.

Here in Manchester there has been an uptick in case numbers (c20%) in the last week. I suspect thats driven partly by the large number of lateral flow tests being taken by school children at the moment (the figures show reported test results increasing massively). Wondering how much of this uptick in cases is down to increased testing or increased transmission (e.g. schools going back)? Or of course both.

My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?

Locally, we’ve had a couple of outbreaks, in wealthier areas, that turned out to be care home related.
This has included several deaths amongst vaccinated residents. I’m not sure on ages, but it’s slightly odd, in as much as the police have become involved:
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/more-deaths-sidmouth-care-home-5175457

Unfortunately, locally this is giving rise to plenty of antivax talk.

[battery]

My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?

A prison sounds to me like the perfect breeding ground for transmission. Add to the inmates x amount of people who work there and enter and leave on a daily basis and I'd have thought you would have a crazy amount of possible transmission vectors?

The secure estate spent a long time being very proud of their very low infection rates. They effectively locked down all prisons right at the start - 23 and a half hour a day bang up, no visits, no education or support staff allowed in etc. - this has led to a lot of concerns around residivism (education and family connections are known to be the best motivator in desistence) as well as mental health.

I'm not sure what has changed recently, but you're right, once it's in it is inevitably going to run rife.

[spidermonkey09]

I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?

[Oldmanmatt]

My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?

A prison sounds to me like the perfect breeding ground for transmission. Add to the inmates x amount of people who work there and enter and leave on a daily basis and I'd have thought you would have a crazy amount of possible transmission vectors?

The secure estate spent a long time being very proud of their very low infection rates. They effectively locked down all prisons right at the start - 23 and a half hour a day bang up, no visits, no education or support staff allowed in etc. - this has led to a lot of concerns around residivism (education and family connections are known to be the best motivator in desistence) as well as mental health.

I'm not sure what has changed recently, but you're right, once it's in it is inevitably going to run rife.

Would that mean eating in cells? I don’t really know much about conditions in Cat A/B, I sort of assume it’s communal dinning/bathroom, but apart from watching old episodes of “Porridge” and visiting the Dartmoor prison museum, i have no clue. We got some info on Cat C and open, before the parole hearings (as an aside, it seems it was odd for a convicted murderer to go from B straight to open).

I’m imagining it to be as hard to stop the spread of infection in a prison as it has proved to be on several ships, or care homes. Once it’s in, it’s in virus heaven.

[Oldmanmatt]

I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?

And hospital admissions stay low, too.

I suppose the mutation risk goes up with the case rate though?

[spidermonkey09]

I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?

And hospital admissions stay low, too.

I suppose the mutation risk goes up with the case rate though?

Yes, agreed.

I think the mutation risk is misrepresented, because it exists in every single case of covid around the world. The chances of a totally vaccine evading variant are pretty low anyway, but the chances of one emerging due to us opening up and having a slightly higher case rate are really minimal.

 In any case, viruses mutate whatever you do, there is no scenario where unlocking doesn't lead to an increased risk of mutation. Zero covid is a non starter: instead we can handle it via booster vaccines in the winter, something that pleasingly is already being planned for by the government (makes a change). The manufacturers are already sorting out a booster to that end for the autumn.

[battery]

My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?

A prison sounds to me like the perfect breeding ground for transmission. Add to the inmates x amount of people who work there and enter and leave on a daily basis and I'd have thought you would have a crazy amount of possible transmission vectors?

The secure estate spent a long time being very proud of their very low infection rates. They effectively locked down all prisons right at the start - 23 and a half hour a day bang up, no visits, no education or support staff allowed in etc. - this has led to a lot of concerns around residivism (education and family connections are known to be the best motivator in desistence) as well as mental health.

I'm not sure what has changed recently, but you're right, once it's in it is inevitably going to run rife.

Would that mean eating in cells? I don’t really know much about conditions in Cat A/B, I sort of assume it’s communal dinning/bathroom, but apart from watching old episodes of “Porridge” and visiting the Dartmoor prison museum, i have no clue. We got some info on Cat C and open, before the parole hearings (as an aside, it seems it was odd for a convicted murderer to go from B straight to open).

I’m imagining it to be as hard to stop the spread of infection in a prison as it has proved to be on several ships, or care homes. Once it’s in, it’s in virus heaven.

Eating is normally communal however it isn't at the moment. The 30 minutes release is by enlarge for exercise or washing.

I obviously can't comment on a specific case of which I know nothing but a couple of points that may or may not be relevant: a person has a catagory as well as the prison: there are companies out there who's entire business is getting people into cat D: being recalled from cat D back to secure is a one way ticket, there is no going back to cat D after that.

[tomtom]

I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?

And hospital admissions stay low, too.

I suppose the mutation risk goes up with the case rate though?

Testing numbers have (more than?) doubled since the schools went back... that’s got to be a factor surely here in increased (or not suppressed) case rates

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Hospital admissions continue to plummet too.

[Oldmanmatt]

I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?

And hospital admissions stay low, too.

I suppose the mutation risk goes up with the case rate though?

Testing numbers have (more than?) doubled since the schools went back... that’s got to be a factor surely here in increased (or not suppressed) case rates

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Hospital admissions continue to plummet too.

Problem being, as always the lag between the two. We’re just waiting find out if rising cases will mean rising admissions two to three weeks from now, again.

I feel pretty positive (and no side effects yet, can’t even tell where the needle went in) that the vaccine program is going to prevent/drastically reduce that third wave of hospitalisations and deaths (he said, rapping his knuckles on his own head, in the absence of a handy bit of wood)...

[IanP]

Testing numbers have (more than?) doubled since the schools went back... that’s got to be a factor surely here in increased (or not suppressed) case rates

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Indeed, without wanting to appear like 'Donald Trump', since we've had very significant increase in testing there are definitely difficulties in comparing case rates over the last couple of weeks. 

Overall we're still seeing a slight decrease in the seven day rolling rate at nationwide level but it is basically flat - we should get a better idea whether this an actual change from the previous falling case rate trend in the next few days once any effect from the increased testing has worked through.

[Oldmanmatt]

Well, 24 hrs later and I can’t find where the jab was and my only possible side effect is feeling so sleepy, I was in bed before 10 last night and CBA on getting up this morning.
No headache, no fever, muscles aches or tenderness.

On the other hand, a friend had hers on Monday, spent all of Tuesday talking to God on the great white telephone and only went back to work yesterday.

[Fiend]

It's happening....

[Fiend]

And... https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/five-ways-boris-johnson-will-fk-up-getting-his-jab-20210319206325

[AJM]

Do you mean specifically in terms of Covid? (The "in this context" bit)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020

I don't know if they'll do an update at some point to bring in the full year. But in terms of what I was looking for it's pretty good, from initial inspection, in that it shows standardised mortality rates, then compared to the five year average weekly and cumulatively, amongst other things, for cities and countries in western Europe (including, for the purpose of this discussion, Stockholm and Sweden).

Not looked at it, but an update.....

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/2020

[andy popp]

Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing.

.

Just came across some data on this; UK and Denmark are 1 and 2 in openness to taking the vaccine at 76.3% and 72% respectively (why it isn't 90%+ everywhere I willl never understand).

There's then quite a steep drop to Sweden at 61.8%. Netherlands, Italy, Norway & Germany are all in the 59-61% range. The US is at 47.2% (you wonder if they'll run out of people willing to be vaccinated quite soon, or if people will begin changing their minds?). Japan, Singapore, & S Korea all under 50%.

In France, shockingly, the figure is just 40.7.

In some ways, the real question is not why is vaccine hesitancy so much higher in Europe, but rather why is it so low in the UK (and DK, to a pretty similar degree).

Source: Imperial College, 17/03/21

[andy popp]

Hmmm, just seen a report of poll last week that found 71% of Germans willing to be vaccinated, a fall of 2 percentage points on the start of March, so who knows what the true figures are. I can imagine exactly how the question is asked could produce varying results - "are you willing to consider vaccination?" is a very different question to "do you feel any hesitancy?"  - but it's hard to imagine that explaining a 20% gap.

I wonder if much vaccine hesitancy is pretty soft? I know more than one person who expressed significant hesitancy but did then get vaccinated when offered the opporunity.

[Andy W]

Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing.

.

Just came across some data on this; UK and Denmark are 1 and 2 in openness to taking the vaccine at 76.3% and 72% respectively (why it isn't 90%+ everywhere I willl never understand).

There's then quite a steep drop to Sweden at 61.8%. Netherlands, Italy, Norway & Germany are all in the 59-61% range. The US is at 47.2% (you wonder if they'll run out of people willing to be vaccinated quite soon, or if people will begin changing their minds?). Japan, Singapore, & S Korea all under 50%.

In France, shockingly, the figure is just 40.7.

In some ways, the real question is not why is vaccine hesitancy so much higher in Europe, but rather why is it so low in the UK (and DK, to a pretty similar degree).

Source: Imperial College, 17/03/21

For France it's the "French paradox" explained here   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/french-distrust-vaccines-politicians. The few neighbours and family around me all express negative reactions to the vaccine.

[SA Chris]

Hmmm, just seen a report of poll last week that found 71% of Germans willing to be vaccinated, a fall of 2 percentage points on the start of March, so who knows what the true figures are. I can imagine exactly how the question is asked could produce varying results - "are you willing to consider vaccination?" is a very different question to "do you feel any hesitancy?"  - but it's hard to imagine that explaining a 20% gap.

Lies, damned lies and statistics?

I do wonder if the UK thing is a bit of national pride? "At the front of vaccination" in the world, general faith in the NHS, and no hesitancy or suspension of vaccinations when any "issues" have been flagged up.

I was speaking to a friend in Kansas, and she said her husband has had the jab already, and she is due next week, they are both in their 40s. I was surprised they are that far down the line already, but it might be that he travels a lot for business?

[Oldmanmatt]

Both the people we knew who initially refused appointments, changed their minds and have now been jabbed.
Both were primarily worried by reports of terrible side effects, in the media, but having seen a few friends get by with nothing more serious than a headache, they went ahead.

[andy popp]

I do wonder if the UK thing is a bit of national pride? "At the front of vaccination" in the world, general faith in the NHS, and no hesitancy or suspension of vaccinations when any "issues" have been flagged up.

I was speaking to a friend in Kansas, and she said her husband has had the jab already, and she is due next week, they are both in their 40s. I was surprised they are that far down the line already, but it might be that he travels a lot for business?

I'm definitely picking up a bit of smug vibe from some US and UK press and social media - there was some real vaccine nationalism going on on a climbing friend's FB over the weekend.

As to the US, I have many friends in their 40s and younger who have received at least one dose. For some it's because of their job, but in many instances it's not. The programme has accelerated tremendously in recent weeks.

[Offwidth]

Lies, damned lies and statistics?

I do wonder if the UK thing is a bit of national pride? "At the front of vaccination" in the world, general faith in the NHS, and no hesitancy or suspension of vaccinations when any "issues" have been flagged up.

I was speaking to a friend in Kansas, and she said her husband has had the jab already, and she is due next week, they are both in their 40s. I was surprised they are that far down the line already, but it might be that he travels a lot for business?

Various experts have pointed out these opinion poll numbers don't match real numbers in the first age groups to be vaccinated. Nor do they take into account face-to-face evidence of the vast majority of family and friends having reactions from a slightly sore arm to minor flu like symptoms. Nor the practicalities of things like air travel for holidays.

[spidermonkey09]

Various experts have pointed out these opinion poll numbers don't match real numbers in the first age groups to be vaccinated. Nor do they take into account face-to-face evidence of the vast majority of family and friends having reactions from a slightly sore arm to minor flu like symptoms. Nor the practicalities of things like air travel for holidays.

What is your point? You seem to be saying uptake will be lower in the first two sentences, but higher in the last.

Edit: if you are saying uptake thus far in Europe has been higher than the opinion poll this morning suggests, that is hardly surprising given it took place before the last weeks messaging clusterfuck?

[duncan]

Lots of good work has been done on vaccine hesitancy over the last year. In the longer term I'm hoping this will increase the focus on health beliefs and behaviours.

Vaccine hesitancy is a concern. If the surveys suggesting only ~72% intend to get vaccinated, we’ll be on the borderline of achieving herd immunity. You’d hope, and data suggests, opinions will shift in a positive direction as millions are vaccinated with no major ill-effects. A vocal minority on social media may be middle-aged blokes but hesitancy is slightly more prevalent in the young (and women and low waged). All these are small effects so there isn’t a ‘typical’ vaccine refuser.

As spidermonkey09 says, hesitancy is worryingly high in people self-reporting black and Pakistani ethnicity.

Hesitancy is a spectrum from the die-hard to the slightly anxious. The hesitancy figures vary with the precise question asked (like religious belief). The term hesitancy is misleading too as societal and practical issues are major reasons why folk don't take up the offer to be vaccinated. Imagine someone a bit uncertain about vaccines in general, nervous about blood clots due to family history, suspicious of governments, suspicious of medical research that has - at best - historically ignored people of their ethnicity, and their boss insists they take the day off as unpaid leave. Why did they they not get vaccinated?

The best driver of health behaviour change is direct experience, next best is experience of friends, family and peers. Vaccine take-up has been spectacular in elderly white people the UK despite initially significant levels of hesitancy because very quickly everyone had heard from someone who had had a vaccine and - 99.9% of the time - it was no big deal. It becomes a virtuous circle.