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Coronavirus Covid-19 (Read 681052 times)

tomtom

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Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 04:26:33 pm
Not wishing to start a panic (as if...) but its looking increasingly like containment to a few geographical locations is not going to work completely...

I guess the measures are all to slow the impact - stretch it out so medical services are not overwhelmed all at once and it gives vaccine research more time to come up with something.

Still - concerning times when the leaked UK govt worst case data suggests 500k people could die in the UK alone...

dunnyg

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#1 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 04:42:19 pm
It does seem to be popping up in a few more places. I'm starting to get less psyched to get on a plane to Turkey (work trip) in the near future. 500k is a grim figure, 1/140(!). Fingers crossed eh?

tomtom

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#2 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 05:05:36 pm
It does seem to be popping up in a few more places. I'm starting to get less psyched to get on a plane to Turkey (work trip) in the near future. 500k is a grim figure, 1/140(!). Fingers crossed eh?

based on 2% of population where 80% contract it IIRC.

We've a second year field course with 30 students to Tenerife in 2-3 weeks..... suspect that won't happen now.

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#3 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 05:17:55 pm
I started wondering last night whether booking a week in Font in September was a good idea or not. Not sure whether BMC insurance would cover cancellation if it was necessary.

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#4 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 05:28:01 pm
I've been following the Johns Hopkins dashboard to allay / enhance my fears of catching this. At least new confirmed cases are levelling out in China but its those outside without efforts of containment that concern. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I travel for work 12-14 weeks of the year and thus far haven't had the fortunate excuse to cancel travel. Worst part is speaking to 30+ different people a day when the longest incubation period recorded is 27 days. What can one do?! I suspect if it gets much worse I will start cancelling trips.

Didn't they have to quarantine an entire hotel in Tenerife? No please

dunnyg

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#5 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 05:32:07 pm
I imagine it will be difficult to claim back unless foreign office change their travel advice (for personal holidays).
Hadn't thought about student fieldwork, that sounds like a bit of a nightmare. The uni haven't said anything yet, but I think the risk assessment got submitted today, we will wait and see.

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#6 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 06:19:48 pm
I’m in Glasgow, for the next 3 weeks, busy at the academy and not paying attention...
Mrs OMM texted me an hour ago, because my eldest son’s football training has been cancelled. One of the lads on his team had just returned from a ski trip in Italy and three of the kids had become ill on the journey back. They were in  quarantine (might still be).
By the time I saw the text and checked the story on Devon live, theschool announced the kids had tested negative.
Frankly, that all seems a bit quick (I thought incubation was estimated at twi weeks and the test results seem pdq.).
But, Ican see panic coming soon. Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...

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#7 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 06:43:34 pm
Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...

Plenty of time to get to dumby then. Look on the bright side. Also coronavirus is no match for the plague infested broken glass at dumby so it may be the safest place in the country.

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#8 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 06:46:40 pm
Everyone thinks readzas vast knowledge is logging grit routes above e5.
Although it was one, studying dieses and virus is the one he makes money from.
Ive asked him about it and the outlook doesnt look good.

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#9 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 07:24:31 pm

Still - concerning times when the leaked UK govt worst case data suggests 500k people could die in the UK alone...

Just had a quick google of this and the first thing I clicked on was this; https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-worst-case-scenario-government-document-a4371726.html%3famp

Hardly a trustworthy news source as I don’t believe a word the sun prints.

Looking down the search page only the shitty papers like the express, the mirror, the sun etc are running stories with that sort of data. So probably just trying to sell papers/click bait.

Oldmanmatt

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#10 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 07:56:06 pm
Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...

Plenty of time to get to dumby then. Look on the bright side. Also coronavirus is no match for the plague infested broken glass at dumby so it may be the safest place in the country.

OT:

On that note, young Mr MacLeod was in TCA this evening. I nearly had one of those embarrassing moments where you see a familiar face, say hello like you’re old mates, and only then realise that it’s not an old acquaintance and the only reason you recognise them is because they’re famous...

Father in law is a very senior Naval Surgeon, retired now but only a year ago, used to be the Commanding officer for the Portsmouth medical dept/hospital. He’s been on our backs about all the traveling I’ve been doing. Gave me a lecture about washing hands, last Thursday.

Edit: actually I should clarify. I’m trotting around the country doing courses. Seven so far. The other delegates are Merchant Navy officers from all over the world, many who have flown in from here, there and everywhere for that course, quite afew from cruise ships...
Seriously, nobody is shaking hands and making a point of not doing so.
 
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 08:01:49 pm by Oldmanmatt »

tomtom

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#11 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 08:23:56 pm

Still - concerning times when the leaked UK govt worst case data suggests 500k people could die in the UK alone...

Just had a quick google of this and the first thing I clicked on was this; https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-worst-case-scenario-government-document-a4371726.html%3famp

Hardly a trustworthy news source as I don’t believe a word the sun prints.

Looking down the search page only the shitty papers like the express, the mirror, the sun etc are running stories with that sort of data. So probably just trying to sell papers/click bait.

I originally read about it in the Indy.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-latest-deaths-uk-infection-flu-a9360271.html

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#12 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 08:48:51 pm
I’m in Glasgow, for the next 3 weeks, busy at the academy and not paying attention...
Mrs OMM texted me an hour ago, because my eldest son’s football training has been cancelled. One of the lads on his team had just returned from a ski trip in Italy and three of the kids had become ill on the journey back. They were in  quarantine (might still be).
By the time I saw the text and checked the story on Devon live, theschool announced the kids had tested negative.
Frankly, that all seems a bit quick (I thought incubation was estimated at twi weeks and the test results seem pdq.).
But, Ican see panic coming soon. Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...

You at both TCAs?  Won't be down this week (mildly tweaked my shoulder on a pink yesterday, noticed a little crunch at the time but not much, fingerboarding felt fine). This morning it was a bit twingey, so I'll just stay off it for a bit.

Oldmanmatt

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#13 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 09:18:05 pm
I’m in Glasgow, for the next 3 weeks, busy at the academy and not paying attention...
Mrs OMM texted me an hour ago, because my eldest son’s football training has been cancelled. One of the lads on his team had just returned from a ski trip in Italy and three of the kids had become ill on the journey back. They were in  quarantine (might still be).
By the time I saw the text and checked the story on Devon live, theschool announced the kids had tested negative.
Frankly, that all seems a bit quick (I thought incubation was estimated at twi weeks and the test results seem pdq.).
But, Ican see panic coming soon. Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...

You at both TCAs?  Won't be down this week (mildly tweaked my shoulder on a pink yesterday, noticed a little crunch at the time but not much, fingerboarding felt fine). This morning it was a bit twingey, so I'll just stay off it for a bit.

I’m using The News Room at the moment. I have been crap and done virtually nothing since I ruptured the disc last October. I realised a few weeks ago I’d gained 10kg and was desperately unfit. I figured three weeks in an hotel and then an AirB&B with no family around and nothing to do after 15:30; was a good time to start pushIng my lardy arse off the couch. In three days, I’ve walked 20miles (4 mile round trip to TCA from the hotel and 3 mile round trip to the college). I’m starting to feel almost human again. Always was a square on climber, preferring to thug through and lacking finesse, but by god! I think someone implanted steel rods into my hips and waist! That and I now have a mortal fear of “pinging” off and landing awkwardly.
Didn’t bring a harness, but with hindsight, top roping/auto belay would have been a safer option. 🤦🏻‍♂️

So I’ve confined myself to jug swinging on the Orange circuit. There’s a Pink through the roof on the left of the Moonboard that I spent some minutes considering tonight. Then bottled it and found anther jug ladder.
Getting old sucks.

TobyD

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#14 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 10:34:19 pm
Amazing that according to the report I've just read the US had tested fewer than 500 people, a small fraction of the number even the comparatively small UK has tested.

jwi

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#15 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 10:42:14 pm
Well Trump did cut the funding for CDC and fired almost everyone in the senior administration who was vaguely competent...

TobyD

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#16 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 26, 2020, 10:52:27 pm
Yup the report mentioned that.

On the projected scale of the virus in the UK from a new statesman article:

An early epidemiological model, from scientists at Imperial College London, estimated that up to 60 per cent of the population of the UK (66.4 million) could become infected within the first year of transmission. We still know little about how many infected people become seriously ill. As many as 90 per cent may suffer only mild symptoms or nothing at all. But even this would leave six per cent of the UK’s population, around four million people, suffering a serious illness.

If estimates of a 2 per cent fatality rate among sick people translate here, then we might expect 80,000 coronavirus-related deaths in the UK over the next 12 months.

Will Hunt

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#17 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 12:37:49 am
Republicans are missing a trick and the Conservatives ought to be throwing everything we've got at it. If it's mainly the elderly that die, just think what 500k fewer Conservative voters would mean for them!

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#18 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 06:42:21 am
For god's sake, Trump has just appointed Pence to oversee the efforts against coronavirus. The man is virtually inanimate. Complacency and contradiction are the watchwords for the Trump administration. His only concern is to try and talk up the stock market.

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#19 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 07:40:34 am
Republicans are missing a trick and the Conservatives ought to be throwing everything we've got at it. If it's mainly the elderly that die, just think what 500k fewer Conservative voters would mean for them!
A mass outbreak could be good news for fit and healthy millenials hoping to get on the property ladder...

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#20 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 09:51:36 am
Think there's a heck of a lot of availability bias going on here:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic


Yes it's spreading fast, but my reading of it is that the mortality rate is higher than average from "normal" flu etc, but that it's only the young / old / vulnerable that are at risk.


Compared to the number of cases / deaths per day from heart disease, cancer, stroke (and probably car crashes and stairs to be honest), I think Covid-19 is small beer. Not that the media will report from that perspective, but hey, that's their business model.


TobyD

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#21 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 10:02:19 am
Yes it's spreading fast, but my reading of it is that the mortality rate is higher than average from "normal" flu etc, but that it's only the young / old / vulnerable that are at risk.

Not the young, apparently.  The mortality for less than 9 years old is 0% according to this analysis

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-children-are-safer-than-anyone-0l3b5tsc6?shareToken=7a217a73bc89305670c9349e957fd1cf

Comparatively,  its highest above 80 at nearly 15%.

andy popp

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#22 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 10:38:39 am
Republicans are missing a trick and the Conservatives ought to be throwing everything we've got at it. If it's mainly the elderly that die, just think what 500k fewer Conservative voters would mean for them!
A mass outbreak could be good news for fit and healthy millenials hoping to get on the property ladder...

And for the prospects of whatever Democrat is facing Trump in November.

tomtom

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#23 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 10:55:17 am
Quite a nice summary/comparison of Covid19 to regular Flu here
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Takehome message is regular flu has a mortality rate of c. 0.05% (US data) Covid19 ~2%

Covid19 - 5% of cases were 'critial' where "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure"

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#24 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 12:04:11 pm
I started wondering last night whether booking a week in Font in September was a good idea or not. Not sure whether BMC insurance would cover cancellation if it was necessary.

I have one booked mid April... Fingers crossed for the efficacy of the international effort.

 

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