[abarro81]

The evolution of the red columns looks like they've taken that into account (hence red column now bigger than a week ago, but the daily rise in the red column has flattened). Promising...

[petejh]

Yep the missed days are accounted for in the average. But simple to work out:

15m target
Subtract 5,383,103 vaccs done to date = 9,616,897
Days until 15th Feb = 24

9,616,897/24 = 400,704 vaccinations required per day.
Which is what the chart shows.

[tomtom]

Yes it’s great news. Hope supply holds up.

AstraZ having to cut deliveries to EU next month due to production hiccup... hopefully we’re higher up the order que/list.

[teestub]

AstraZ having to cut deliveries to EU next month due to production hiccup... hopefully we’re higher up the order que/list.

😬 I’m sure you didn’t mean this the way it comes across to me! It sounds a little bit ‘fuck everyone else as long as we are alright’

[tomtom]

AstraZ having to cut deliveries to EU next month due to production hiccup... hopefully we’re higher up the order que/list.

😬 I’m sure you didn’t mean this the way it comes across to me! It sounds a little bit ‘fuck everyone else as long as we are alright’

Yeah - sorry. Almost sounds a bit grateful for brexit too :D

Hopefully it’s not affecting all supplies would be a better way of putting it...

Been following the Yorkshire post scoop about “Yorkshire” allocated doses now being sent elsewhere to balance up the national coverage. Levelling down they may call it. Interesting tit for tat with a co-ordinated govt ministerial attach on the editor - who was then proved absolutely correct. Normally a very blue facing paper too...

Funny to see the Yp retweeting Alastair Campbell’s support...

[sdm]

Big increase today. It's good to have a bit of positive news to focus on for a change.

Edit: now with graph included

[Oldmanmatt]

‘Deaths within 28 days”, have surpassed “Deaths with Covid on the death certificate”.
Over 97k now, so at current rates, we’ll pass 100k before midweek.

I’m not trying to rub it in, just illustrating the modelling’s veracity and pointing out we are on the “worst case if we do nothing” trajectory, that was discussed in October, with a modification from the  Nov. lockdown.

Balls.

I keep trying to avoid commenting on this page as i find it so depressing and negative, something I am not, but the last graphs got my back up again.

Over 100k deaths in the next three months. More than Double what we have had already ?????

Did this same group do a forecast back in March and is it possible to see it. Guess they were one of those saying 250k would die.

Finally we need a function that allows you to block out topics on here, I just want to look at climbing stuff from now on.

[sdm]

...and so much for the good news bubble!

[spidermonkey09]

Don't think gme has been seen since that post. 

If you accept that these deaths are all baked in from Xmas unlocking still things are still going in the right direction. Good vaccine numbers, cases dropping, London getting things under control. I see everything else (Israeli research, new variant, first jab strategy) as noise at this stage as the data is too messy to draw meaningful conclusions from what I've seen

[Oldmanmatt]

...and so much for the good news bubble!

Yeah. Made the mistake of ducking out of family time ( because the girls want to watch “Casualty” ) and opening the Sky news app...

[SamT]

Its all unfolding for me, staff at work suddenly dropping like flies.  Nobody's in the office, so not being transferred there ( I hope, I crossed paths with both members who've gone down with it, but only for less than 10mins, not within 2m).

I also thought about gme whilst watching the headlines re the netherlands, who IIRC, was all like 'they're just going for herd immunity and they're going to be fine'

My wife (NHS) has had her first jab, but I'll be well well down the queue.

Cracks starting to show in the supply chain and I'm fully expecting some sort of total govenment fuck up, where by nobody gets a second jab cause of the decision to go to 12 weeks followed by supply chain issues.

(sorry to be pessimistic)

[tomtom]

The vaccination figures are good. I suspect our capacity to deliver jabs is actually greater than 600k per day - as there are many reports of places with no or limited supply.

This is encouraging - as when supply from the manufacturers increases we will be in a position to get those first and then second doses in.

Theres also going to be an increasing number of people who won’t take it as you move to younger groups... and more people not registered to a GP etc.. this means it’ll end up rattling down through the list of people to get it faster - but isn’t good news for the herd immunity angle.

[sdm]

Theres also going to be an increasing number of people who won’t take it as you move to younger groups... and more people not registered to a GP etc.. this means it’ll end up rattling down through the list of people to get it faster - but isn’t good news for the herd immunity angle.

I could be wrong but I don't expect there will be a big shift in people refusing in the younger age groups.

My main reason for this is that there are already travel companies saying that they intend to refuse business to people who aren't vaccinated. If many companies/countries do the same, I expect people's objections to having a vaccine will disappear rather quickly.

[spidermonkey09]

As I understand it there is a quite significant issue with uptake in minority groups due to long standing healthcare inequalities and distrust of govt. I would have thought this will be a significantly bigger hurdle than youth refusing to be jabbed? Can't see why the young would refuse TT, unless you mean the middle aged boomers who are seemingly uniquely susceptible to Facebook conspiracy theories? Edit: just saw you said younger not young so I've probably answered my own question.

The single dose strategy is an interesting one. From my reading it seems like a judgement call, with reasonable people on both sides. "balance of probabilities" vs stringent adherence to evidence based medicine. I think the latter is well represented on social media via some noisy sceptics of the policy but I'm not convinced it's representative of the whole cohorts views. In any case, this wasn't a political decision so I'm much more willing to give it the benefit of the doubt because I trust Whitty more than Johnson.

[duncan]

Vaccine hesitancy is a concern. If the surveys suggesting only ~72% intend to get vaccinated, we’ll be on the borderline of achieving herd immunity. You’d hope, and data suggests, opinions will shift in a positive direction as millions are vaccinated with no major ill-effects. A vocal minority on social media may be middle-aged blokes but hesitancy is slightly more prevalent in the young (and women and low waged). All these are small effects so there isn’t a ‘typical’ vaccine refuser.

As spidermonkey09 says, hesitancy is worryingly high in people self-reporting black and Pakistani ethnicity.

How to Vaccinate the World podcast (an offshoot of More or Less) is good listening if you’re into all this.

[tomtom]

My uptake hesitance ideas were all based on a survey a few weeks back - where uptake in 80+ was 97% dropping to 65% in 20-30 year olds.. with a sliding scale between these groups.

That was inthink before the new strain concerns that might shift that a bit - but there’s a sizeable (double digit?) percentage of people out there who may not have it.

Again - many people - especially younger - may not have a GP. I didn’t from the age of 21 to 36... used to just use ‘emergency appointments’. This may have changed in 15 years of course (and at that age I’d be at the bottom of the que etc) but a chunk of people may just be hard to find!!

[spidermonkey09]

I think once people are offered it, if they refuse to have it it shouldn't be a barrier to loosening restrictions. Obviously outreach work needs to and should be done on this but our uptake seems to be high enough that I can't see this being a huge issue. Unlike in, say, France!

Would have thought an ad campaign for young people to register at a GP/drop in appointments will solve the registration issue. We are months away from that point yet in any case.

[mrjonathanr]

This looks interesting. - a website set up to debunk COVID denialism: https://www.covidfaq.co/

[Offwidth]

Useful FAQ to help fend off covid deniers, lockdown deniers and anti -vaxers. Tory MP Neil O'Brian (of Twitter scraps with Toby Young fame) is one of the authors.

https://www.covidfaq.co/

Plus a new guardian article explaining why the authors set up the site.

[mrjonathanr]

Oh, had not spotted that!

[Offwidth]

A statement from the British Society of Immunology on the UK approach to the vaccination dosing schedule, supporting the delay of the second dose to week 12.

https://www.immunology.org/policy-and-public-affairs/briefings-and-position-statements/COVID-19-vaccine-dosing-schedules

[SA Chris]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/ons-figures-show-uk-passed-100000-covid-deaths-by-7-january

his government “did everything we could”

Shows the level of delusion,.

[Bonjoy]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/ons-figures-show-uk-passed-100000-covid-deaths-by-7-january

his government “did everything we could”

Shows the level of delusion,.

Within the unspoken caveats...

"We did everything we could" given our:
- rank incompetence
- lack of imagination
- ideological biases
- disdain for experts
- self imposed brexit shitshow
- enormous commons majority... of reactionary sociopaths
- braindead optimism bias
- inability to look beyond next Thursday's headlines
- crony capitalist agenda
- thinly veiled contempt for the NHS
- etc...
...I guess you could say it was an accurate statement.

[Oldmanmatt]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/ons-figures-show-uk-passed-100000-covid-deaths-by-7-january

his government “did everything we could”

Shows the level of delusion,.

Within the unspoken caveats...

"We did everything we could" given our:
- rank incompetence
- lack of imagination
- ideological biases
- disdain for experts
- self imposed brexit shitshow
- enormous commons majority... of reactionary sociopaths
- braindead optimism bias
- inability to look beyond next Thursday's headlines
- crony capitalist agenda
- thinly veiled contempt for the NHS
- etc...
...I guess you could say it was an accurate statement.

And yet, there’s no public outcry, hardly even an angry opinion piece.
Introduce a curfew in NL= riots.
Let your nation carry the heaviest death toll in Europe, whilst probably experiencing the heaviest economic hit to boot and still hold a lead in the opinion polls.
You can do unspeakable things, to the British public, blatantly; as long as you tell them how great they are, that everything will be fine if they just keep a stiff upper lip and not to grumble (which is a terribly “foreign” thing to do).

[tomtom]

Half the deaths have happened since the 7th November. Everyone involved with the NHS said - be prepared for winter. Instead - our government was easing a lockdown at that point. 

The Govt and the PM are of course culpable here - but equally to blame are the 50-100 Tory MP's who have fought what I think are sensible measures, at every step along the way to preserve 'liberty', free trade and business. They (the BRG? Brexit Research Group) will largely go un-noticed once this is all over but have continually had the ear of the PM chipping away at every measure that comes along. Of course the PM could ignore them  - at his own peril (and that is another weakness of his) - but its those bastards who dilute every measure.

Hotel quarantine will be another one of these (as expected today). Instead of a blanket application (which might work) lets just do it to flights from certain countries (where arrivals are already banned!!!). If you want to fly from SA to the UK - just go to Schipol, Frankfurt, Madrid or Paris - then get a separate flight in.... Its bonkers.

In balance, I think the Govt has done two things well. 1. The financial compensation has at first worked - and is holding fast(ish) at present (it could have been done much worse) 2. Vaccine procurement and rollout looks like its working pretty well (maybe because its been left to the NHS, hospitals, GP groups rather than SERCO et al.,). Neither are perfect - but bloody fantastic compared to everything else...