[Loos3-tools]

An interesting letter in the Lancet

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00193-8/fulltext?rss%3Dyes

[SA Chris]

There were also suggestions that the initial direction of the App's development was also poorly considered. (e.g. originally, deliberately, not based on the Apple/Google framework)

No suggestion really, i think it's a fact and anyone not directly involved would tend to agree. And for "poorly considered" substitute "fucking stupid".

[tomtom]

64. For these reasons, a significant proportion of the population could still be infected, either because they have not been vaccinated or because the vaccine is not effective for them. This is illustrated by Figure 7. This could mean that some measures to limit transmission are still needed after all adults have been offered a vaccine. These could include guidance such as “hands, face, space”, maintaining the Test, Trace and Isolate system and controls at the border (see chapter 4). The extent to which such measures will be required after all adults have been vaccinated is still unknown. As set out in chapter 3, the Government is exploring what measures may be required.

Yes - there will be a percentage of the population who won't or can't be vaccinated. Its an issue thats being explored a bit (directly and indirectly) with a guardian article yesterday (hold yer horses WonkySpanner!) about a two tier society - split along vaccination lines that coincided with ethnic/financial groups.. Article in the MEN too this morning about why certain areas of Greater Manchester have such persistently high rates... So if much of this percentage (of non vaccinated people) is concentrated in certain groups (social/ethnic/both) in certain areas of the UK... In some places it simply won't disappear.

The quoted statement reads a bit like a catch all paragraph in a contract terms and conditions....

[slab_happy]

The argument was never that the App was "useless". More that the money spent on the centralisation of contact tracing may have been more cost-effective spent supporting/expanding existing LA contact tracing teams.

There were also suggestions that the initial direction of the App's development was also poorly considered. (e.g. originally, deliberately, not based on the Apple/Google framework)

Oh, complete agreement -- I wasn't implying that the app was useless as an idea, just thinking about the string of cock-ups in the design and development process (and how it's been tied in -- or not -- with other systems). E.g. the point when it wouldn't accept certain positive test results, the period when it was set to the incorrect risk threshold and wasn't warning people when it should have, the period when people told to self-isolate by the app couldn't claim the £500 self-isolation payment that they theoretically could if the human Test and Trace service told them to self-isolate, etc..

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-covid-app-failed-to-record-potential-exposures-due-to-error-12120910
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55259272

All of which have affected its potential usefulness.

Which is why the fact that it's now reasonably functional and doing some good is noteworthy, and should encourage more people to download it.

[Loos3-tools]

64. For these reasons, a significant proportion of the population could still be infected, either because they have not been vaccinated or because the vaccine is not effective for them. This is illustrated by Figure 7. This could mean that some measures to limit transmission are still needed after all adults have been offered a vaccine. These could include guidance such as “hands, face, space”, maintaining the Test, Trace and Isolate system and controls at the border (see chapter 4). The extent to which such measures will be required after all adults have been vaccinated is still unknown. As set out in chapter 3, the Government is exploring what measures may be required.

Yes - there will be a percentage of the population who won't or can't be vaccinated. Its an issue thats being explored a bit (directly and indirectly) with a guardian article yesterday (hold yer horses WonkySpanner!) about a two tier society - split along vaccination lines that coincided with ethnic/financial groups.. Article in the MEN too this morning about why certain areas of Greater Manchester have such persistently high rates... So if much of this percentage (of non vaccinated people) is concentrated in certain groups (social/ethnic/both) in certain areas of the UK... In some places it simply won't disappear.

The quoted statement reads a bit like a catch all paragraph in a contract terms and conditions....

Poor and marginalised people do seem to bear the brunt of it all.

[Tony]

There were also suggestions that the initial direction of the App's development was also poorly considered. (e.g. originally, deliberately, not based on the Apple/Google framework)

No suggestion really, i think it's a fact and anyone not directly involved would tend to agree. And for "poorly considered" substitute "fucking stupid".

I think we are broadly agreeing.
The trouble with the opinions of people "not directly involved" is that those people probably have even fewer of the facts.

[SA Chris]

What I mean is, anyone who is getting any share of the billions spent developing it thinks the app is fucking great, even if it doesn't work.

[galpinos]

An interesting letter in the Lancet

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00193-8/fulltext?rss%3Dyes

I am not saying that we should objectively review the effectiveness of the lockdown strategies but.....

Using the lung cancer stats, they reckon there will be an increase in number of deaths of up to 5.3% through delayed treatment and diagnosis. My wife is a lung cancer consultant so I have a working knowledge of the effects of Covid and the lockdown oh the service and how difficult it is to manage and treat patients during this time. The decision to leave the patients to die without treatment or bring them in and kill them with a hospital caught Covid infection is not an easy one. The only thing she seems sure of is that not controlling the spread of the virus in some manner would have lead to lung cancer covid related death figures to show a increase far in excess of 5%.

[petejh]

So as per my posts on B3 from here: https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070

and here:
://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488


There's now more evidence to back this up.

Preclinical research on NR and its role in covid-19 infected cells has now been released today in pre-print form, available here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.047480v3

Note my disclaimers - I'm a shareholder in Chromadex (which are up 22% on this news)

Further research adding evidence to the B3 / NAD+ hypothesis.

https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810

Update on this. The next pre-clinical study was released last night US time. It reinforces the hypothesis that's been building around NAD depletion leading to worse outcomes from covid-19 infection; and the role of NAD augmentation using NR to slow virus replication.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chromadex-announces-study-results-highlighting-103600635.html
These are great times to be a mouse.
Human study coming soon..

(I'm an investor, I'm biased)

Something a bit more practical than whinging about how shit the world is...

Following my posts in March, April and July about vitamin B3 being possibly effective both as a prophylactic and a treatment for covid - results from a phase 2 human study in covid patients were released this week which add more evidence to the mouse studies, cell studies and original hypothesis. Trial was open label.. but with a placebo control. Shows 30% reduction in recovery time in patients with covid. Other compounds in the mix as well as B3.



(disclaimer: investor in Chromodex, manufacturer of Nigen).

Another follow-on from my tip in March, April, July and October last year regarding vitamin B3, specifically NR (nicotinimide riboside). 

Phase 3 study results in (pre print), which build on the pilot and phase 2 studies. Significant acceleration seen in recovery time from mild-moderate covid19 for NR versus a placebo, when taken in conjunction with a standard of care. It not only improved recovery time but also improved liver health and inflammatory markers. Randomised, placebo-controlled, double blind. 309 patients. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/phase-3-clinical-study-finds-113000203.html

Chromadex up 85% today on the news..  I'd noticed they started rising around 5 days ago from their normal level of $4-5 per share. Currently $18 

I've taken NR for years ever since back surgery in 2014, to aid recovery of damaged sciatic nerve. Also a long-term investor, although I sold too early in this case!

[tomtom]

MEN article flagging up the north south divide in stagnant and falling Covid cases...

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/north-south-divide-covid-rates-19918490

[spidermonkey09]

MEN article flagging up the north south divide in stagnant and falling Covid cases...

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/north-south-divide-covid-rates-19918490

Good piece. I've been following this lately as Leicester is trending dead flat in recent weeks in terms of case rates and I suspect that will remain the case for the foreseeable. The first local lockdown here made basically no difference to case rates and they remained at a higher level than elsewhere in the country over the 2020 summer as well, even once it had been lifted. Local lockdowns are not a solution to this problem and will simply entrench the inequalities that have caused it in the first place.

This is a great visual indicator: https://twitter.com/CovidLeics/status/1364965069952589828
Particularly interesting is the comment beneath showing deprivation indices; the dark purple areas showing high deprivation map very well onto high case rates.

Its a live issue and very politically charged as Johnson has committed to a national unlocking with no regional Tiers, but left himself some wiggle room to implement regional lockdowns if they suspect a new variant is involved. I hope they will resist the temptation to lock down regionally as they breed massive resentment and are probably quite politically toxic, especially if applies to red wall areas or northern constituencies. Hard to say you're levelling up if they end up letting the south unlock faster than the north!

[mrjonathanr]

I suspect if the HSE were able to classify COVID outbreaks at work as serious rather than merely significant Leicester’s rates would drop rapidly.

What is more serious than death, anyway??

[spidermonkey09]

I suspect if the HSE were able to classify COVID outbreaks at work as serious rather than merely significant Leicester’s rates would drop rapidly.

What is more serious than death, anyway??

I don't follow you, could you expand? Probably being dim, apologies!

[tomtom]

Health and Safety Executove. Have the power to close workplaces if unsafe. I think that’s happened twice nationally due to covid? Normally a slapped wrist and try harder seems to be the result of any changes investigation.

WRT Leicester assume this is due to High workplace transmission maintaining high rates.

(I think)

[Loos3-tools]

What is more serious than death, anyway??

Quite a lot of things, but you wouldn't think it.

[spidermonkey09]

I see, thanks. Yes, I would be astonished if the high case rate wasn't connected to workplace transmission. It is striking how much lower the case rates are in the leafier suburban areas in the south east of the city for example.

[tomtom]

I see, thanks. Yes, I would be astonished if the high case rate wasn't connected to workplace transmission. It is striking how much lower the case rates are in the leafier suburban areas in the south east of the city for example.

I saw (lost in my Twitter feed) an article relating cases to wfh rates. As you suspect in the wealthier areas more folks wfh and lower incidences.

[mrjonathanr]

Sorry to be unclear, typing on my phone. I have not read of any workplace closures by HSE, though TT may be ahead of me there. btw number of reported covid outbreaks at work is c3,500.

I understand this is because it is classified as 'significant' rather than 'serious' which makes it extremely difficult for HSE inspectors to serve a prohibition notice.

Look at RIDDOR guidance: https://www.hse.gov.uk/coronavirus/riddor/index.htm

You should only make a report under RIDDOR when one of the following circumstances applies:
...
a person at work (a worker) has been diagnosed as having COVID-19 attributed to an occupational exposure to coronavirus. This must be reported as a case of disease

a worker dies as a result of occupational exposure to coronavirus.

My highlights. Tell me how an inspector could ever prove that Covid was NOT caught in the community when there is a massive outbreak at work?

Swansea DVLA outbreak (350-500 cases) did not result in closure, presumably for that very reason. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55785912

[slab_happy]

Sorry to be unclear, typing on my phone. I have not read of any workplace closures by HSE, though TT may be ahead of me there.

Guardian piece from the 14th says there had been no Covid-related prohibition notices by then:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/14/hse-refuses-to-close-workplaces-that-are-putting-employees-at-risk

Amazing quote:

Employment minister Mims Davies last week said Covid had been classified as “significant” rather than “serious”, as it “best supports inspectors in making sensible, proportionate regulatory decisions”. She added that effects of Covid were “non-permanent or reversible, non-progressive and any disability is temporary” for the working population as a whole.

[mrjonathanr]

The reversibility of death is something of a breakthrough I feel.

[Loos3-tools]

There is a national obsession with death and covid death. The government and MSM pump it out. They act like abusive parents looking to sanction, punish and control on one hand and share in a lie of empathy and understanding of grief and loss on the other. Deeply disturbing eh

[Oldmanmatt]

There is a national obsession with death and covid death. The government and MSM pump it out. They act like abusive parents looking to sanction, punish and control on one hand and share in a lie of empathy and understanding of grief and loss on the other. Deeply disturbing eh

There is an obsession, in certain quarters, with death and covid death. Those people and alternative media pump it out. They act like anything that doesn’t fit their weird world views, can’t be real, seeking to deny it all and showing no empathy or understanding for the grief and loss, that has been the reality of the last 12 months. This is deeply disturbing.

Edit:

Going for a run and then a long shower, so I can forget certain people exist.

[Will Hunt]

Meanwhile, North Yorkshire Police fine people £200 for a trip to Almscliff while people go into offices and have face to face meetings indoors (Source: a friend who recently had a 6-person meeting in a 16-person meeting room).

I'm amazed at all this. I haven't been into the office since last March. Somehow we've (a regional utility) still managed to keep our work going, still managed to arrange work with contractors, progressed liaison with the regulator, had in depth discussions with consultants etc, keep model runs going, etc etc etc.

[Loos3-tools]

Don't forget the new commandment Will

'all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others'

[slab_happy]

There is a national obsession with death and covid death.

Yeah, weird that people would give a shit about the potentially-avoidable deaths of 120,000 people (disproportionately poor, disabled, BAME and otherwise marginalized ones)!

This whole "caring about people dying" thing must be an invention of the government and "mainstream media" (the Daily Mail and the Guardian, they're in it together). They just want to control you! WAKE UP SHEEPLE!

Seriously, there's absolutely been the low-level "fine people for driving slightly outside their local area to go for a socially-distanced walk" petty bullying crap, but what we've seen again and again is the government making things far far worse by delaying lockdowns, lifting restrictions way too fast, and refusing to police some things (like employers forcing workers back into unsafe workplaces) at all.

Then the brakes get slammed on at the last minute when someone points out that if the line on the graph goes up any further the NHS is going to collapse.

Jolly old BoJo doesn't want to be the big meanie who cancels Cheltenham or Christmas, that's nasty nanny state stuff, so we have one of the highest death rates in the world and we're on lockdown number three.