[ali k]

I'm just not sure the government are that Machiavellian for this to all be part of the strategy.

You’re probably right of course. It’s just hard to disentangle what is and isn’t sometimes, especially when this government* has the history it does in terms of its ability to control message and manipulate thinking.
*Vote Leave strategists

[ali k]

As per Hanlon's Razor, never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity!

I now completely agree. It was just a complete shit show of mixed messaging kicked off by a remark made on the hoof by BJ at PMQs and then amplified by the Downing St briefings. No strategy. Just incompetence as per usual.

[tomtom]

A long read: but interesting - how the pandemic played out in Lombardy. Includes lots of details about how Lombardys health system is organised (50/50 private/public) and some shocking/bad numbers about death rates in care homes (30%) and how in the chaos of everything these were somehow not considered in detail.

It’s well written - lots of detail - but long. If you’ve a spare 30 min.

https://www.ilpost.it/2020/05/07/two-months-that-shook-lombardy-to-the-core-coronavirus/

[Sidehaas]

My biggest takeaway from that is that despite the talk of the system there being overwhelmed, what actually happened reads very similarly to what has been happening in the UK. (Not the governance system, but the impact on the health system and the consequences that have played out)

[tomtom]

stay at home as much as possible

🤦‍♂️

Still time for a U turn.....

[seankenny]

The daily briefings are “number theatre” from a government that isn’t treating us like grown-ups, according to a top statistician.

https://twitter.com/tobyontv/status/1259416363556376576?s=21

[mrjonathanr]

Dr Ami Jones, tweeting graph of international death rates,

Showing our supremacy in the world stats as we irresponsibly flount lockdown to celebrate VE Day in the worst fashion. Glad I’ve had a couple of weeks away from ITU to recuperate as the next wave is going to make this horrific statistic even worse. Things are about to get busy .

https://twitter.com/JonesTheBosher/status/1259373302289772545

Sir David Spiegelhalter, from Sean’s tweeted interview

I think this {gov briefings} is untrustworthy communication of statistics.

Stewart Lee:

Britain now has the highest coronavirus death rate of any European country, and unpatriotic critics are already trying to connect this data, in some way, to the government’s response to the crisis, as if they were somehow related.

Edit-tweet addded

[SA Chris]

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

I found this very interesting and enlightening, worth reading through.

[mrjonathanr]

 Worth reading. Thanks.

[tomtom]

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

I found this very interesting and enlightening, worth reading through.

Really good read. I encourage anyone browsing the thread to have a look.

[Offwidth]

From the link (so important it's worth quoting)

"As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, as of May 3rd the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.

So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It's going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk."

[ali k]

Great bit of unplanned sentence juxtaposition on the Today programme just now trailing ‘More or Less’...

Martha Kearney: “Tell us what’s coming up later today”

Tim Harford: “The R value...”

[petejh]

So as per my posts on B3 from here: https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070

and here:
://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488


There's now more evidence to back this up.

Preclinical research on NR and its role in covid-19 infected cells has now been released today in pre-print form, available here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.047480v3

Note my disclaimers - I'm a shareholder in Chromadex (which are up 22% on this news)

Further research adding evidence to the B3 / NAD+ hypothesis.

https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810

[mrjonathanr]

embed issues

[andy popp]

No deaths here today.

[Oldmanmatt]

This is worth reading, the Times article is quite good, too, but paywalled:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england14may2020

Same link as the other thread, but thought it worth putting here as well.

[mrjonathanr]

Artículo asombroso, para los que hablan español
https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/05/09/ciencia/1589059080_203445.html

Excellent article, explains exactly how the virus is able to get into human cells so effectively. In Spanish.

[remus]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf

Interesting piece of analysis on risk factors in CV19 patients. Uses a huge dataset of 17million patients in the UK (based on GP records and deaths recorded through a national CV19 tracking system). Summary: don't be an old, fat, non-white male from a deprived background and have uncontrolled diabetes.

[Offwidth]

Some epidemiological insight that seems to be getting missed.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/19/second-coronavirus-wave-r-number-uk-test-and-trace-mass-gatherings-travel

[tomtom]

I found this twitter thread interesting https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1262863846387134470?s=21

We’ve heard a lot about the R value - but not k - which is how transmission is clustered around certain people. CV19 has a very low k value - that means only a few people with it are responsible for most of the spread. Interesting for the dynamics of its spread... and may explain why it’s taken off in some places and not in others.

[Johnny Brown]

Interesting. Seems to validate the Quillette piece I shared a couple of months ago which was not received well here?

[Stu Littlefair]

My complaint about the quilette piece was not that it raised the possibility of super spreading events, but that it did so as if the epidemiologists working on CV-19 were unaware of it, which is far from the case. You often see it in the papers discussed as "over dispersion". Most modelling papers at the time of the quillette piece discussed it in some sense.

[mrjonathanr]

ccu cgg cgg gca

[Oldmanmatt]

ccu cgg cgg gca

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/05/18/ciencia/1589818040_544543.html

[SA Chris]

Thanks, the parts of that that I understood are fascinating.