[andy popp]

Holland, Belgium, Italy and just announced Ireland not accepting travellers from the UK.

Come on Mette, shut the bloody door.

[Ru]

As one professor (McNally) said: "We know there's a variant, we know nothing about what that means biologically...It is far too early to make any inference on how important this may or may not be."

They seem to know a bit about it:

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_19-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations.pdf

[tomtom]

Germany, France, Czech Republic, Austria. All banned flights from the UK. For the next 48 hours at least.

Pretty severe as this is the flights - not just stopping UK citizens but everyone..

[tomtom]

As one professor (McNally) said: "We know there's a variant, we know nothing about what that means biologically...It is far too early to make any inference on how important this may or may not be."

They seem to know a bit about it:

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_19-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations.pdf

Having read that - it doesn’t really say much apart from what distinguishes the different types and their occurrence.

[Ru]

They seem to know a bit about it:

Having read that - it doesn’t really say much apart from what distinguishes the different types and their occurrence.

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic. Perhaps I would have been better saying "this is what they do know about it," or something like that.

[tomtom]

Summary from the govts NERVTAG group meeting here

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

Some things in there that have not really surfaced in any media reports - that the new variant is less detectable in PCR tests (I think) and that 4 of the c 1000 examples were re-infections... Increase in cases was exponential during lockdown - and that the change to the R rate of the new strain/variant was between 0.43 and 0.9 (0.43 quoted by the media is the bottom end of the range)...

[mrjonathanr]

+0.9? Not a lot of ´headroom’ there.

[abarro81]

What's the lowest R we've ever achieved with the previous version? I can't find a graph from a quick Google, but IIRC it's never been low enough that anything near the middle of that range from this version would get us below 1.. maybe full lockdown like march including schools closed plus unis closed plus now being better at reducing transmission in hospital and care homes might just get you there?? Looks like a pretty crap few months coming up  full lockdown by new year?

[petejh]

+0.9? Not a lot of ´headroom’ there.

None..?
If the March lockdown reduced R by 0.6(?) and this variant increases R by 0.4-0.9. Say average 0.65

Has to be a UK-wide strict lockdown within a day or two at most? At those levels of transmission a lockdown as strict or more strict than March could still see constant high levels of infection, with all that implies.
If any more indication was needed of how shit things may be about to get, countries wouldn’t ban all inbound travel ‘that’ rapidly, with the associated logistical shitstorm, unless the consequences of not doing so were v.serious.
Roll on mass vaccination. And hopefully the hints are completely wrong.

Edit - more positively, this report suggests ‘R’ may have reduced from 3.something to 0.7 during first lockdown: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-53414363

[Offwidth]

You're right Pete but how long before the public realise this? How will they behave then, especially since it seems these threats of policing in England and Scotland are looking toothless??

[Offwidth]

@offwidth - you misunderstood my post. We simply don’t know at the moment - but a major shift in the transmissibility of the virus may mean we have to rethink (towards harsher measures) how we deal with it at the moment.

I agree we don't know everything but hands, face, space is always the best way to start and is the key messaging from the epidemiologists on the news. Any harsher restrictive measures (which I would welcome) are a much more complex balance of many other factors dealing mainly with population effects of indoor social distancing. If we debated in detail we would  probably agree but I think it is important people need to understand the basic advice will still work best and 2m almost certainly won't change and mask wearing outdoors at 2m almost certainly won't have much effect on transmission. The spread of C19 is pretty much all indoors and this new mutation likely won't change that.

[tomtom]

Pete - exactly. If it’s the higher end of this value then that means a lockdown with all the measures would slow/halt it but not lead to much reduction. That’s schools out, unis out, proper stay at home measures, all work stopped.

Guess we’ll find out - but there was also comment on the NERVTAG report (it’s only 2 pages) that exponential growth continued in Kent despite the lockdown. Either Kent was shit at lockdown 2 (possible) or the virus is very effective.

[Offwidth]

I forgot to copy the Tony Cox tweet last night showing the scary prevalence data for the new mutation.

https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/1340349639946629120?s=20

This is important because the exponential growth despite current restrictions is clear and it shows if any minister claims they didn't have clear evidence of a need for urgent action before Friday they are telling lies.

[Offwidth]

The Guardian On the rise UK map has gone from bad to grim in just a few days.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/covid-cases-and-deaths-today-coronavirus-uk-map

Tier 1 Cornwall is now up 242% on the week

[nic mullin]

the new variant is less detectable in PCR tests (I think)

Don’t think this is the case, the new variant seems to be detectable after fewer PCR cycles (lower ct). This implies more copies the viral RNA are present in the test sample and so suggests a higher viral load.

The degree of restrictions rolled out on Saturday (in the context of how much the government has been banging on about Christmas, their libertarian attitude to all things and that London was in tier 2 until a week ago) say pretty clearly that shit just got very real, and the graph offwidth posted says it has been for some time.

Agree with the other posters above that we’ll be in last-March level lockdown very soon and running to stand still at best. Grim.

[tomtom]

Thanks Nic. Glad I was wrong!

Reading the sage/nervtag report I was (pleasantly) surprised to see that we sequence 10% of all positive tests to see which strain it is and how it develops. Think how bad it could be if we didn’t know...

[Nails]

Leading German virologist Christian Drosten has said he expects the new strain of Covid-19 discovered in the UK to be already in circulation in Germany, but that he was “everything but worried” about the viral mutation at the moment. “The question is: is this virus being washed up by a coming new wave in that region [in South East England], or is this virus responsible for creating this wave in the first place”, Drosten said. “That’s an important difference”.
Drosten noted that the viral strain had also been detected in other countries, like the Netherlands, where it didn’t appear to have multiplied in a significantly more rapid way. “I am open to new scientific insights, and in science there are always surprises, but I am everything but worried in this respect”.

[stone]

the new variant is less detectable in PCR tests (I think)

Don’t think this is the case, the new variant seems to be detectable after fewer PCR cycles (lower ct). This implies more copies the viral RNA are present in the test sample and so suggests a higher viral load.

My understanding:- the test used for the UK Pillar2 testing multiplexes three PCR primer pairs to SARS CoV2 (along with another pair to an internal MS2 control). One of the three pairs doesn't work on this 69-70del new variant but the other two primer pairs do still work fine and, as you say, have been detecting this variant with lower ct.

[ali k]

Drosten noted that the viral strain had also been detected in other countries, like the Netherlands, where it didn’t appear to have multiplied in a significantly more rapid way.

Shapps doing the rounds this morning used the example of his mate's wedding recently where he said 13 out of 15 guests tested positive afterwards despite all being asymptomatic - claiming that "this is something we didn't know about before" presumably to stress that the new strain is causing the huge rise in cases and the science has changed dramatically in the last few days. Sounded like a man clutching at straws to defend the late decision about xmas. We've known about asymptomatic transmission from the very start. I'm increasingly cynical the govt are using this new strain as cover.

[Nails]

My main point is really that with or without the new variant, the rise in cases in London and the South East has not been particularly sudden, and is explained quite reasonably with bog standard Covid. Plenty of examples of cases continuing to rise in the North West back in September whilst effectively being in the equivalent of tier 3. Bolton was a good example. Trouble is, that leaves the government with very difficult explanations as to lack of action. Hence the sudden supposed massive importance of the new variant. Gets them off the hook.

Standard Covid is highly transmissible. If we're social distancing then the risk of transmission is very low (variant or otherwise). The notion of significant amounts of transmission via surfaces seems to have been largely debunked. The main factor that varies is human behaviour. My guess is that regardless of tiers it takes time for people's behaviour to alter. The South East had been in Tiers 1 and 2 prior to lock down. The North West has had significant restrictions since August/September and took a long time for cases to really come down. It's good news, in that the new variant is probably not changing anything significantly, but the hysteria that the government have created whilst covering their arses is going to cause some major real-world problems.

[petejh]

The best case is that you and Ali are absolutely correct in your cynicism (better posted on the covid & politics thread?) that this is all just a government ploy to ‘cover their arses over not cancelling xmas earlier’.

The much worse case is that there actually IS a much more virulent strain of covid spreading uncontrollably across the UK.

I wish that you were correct, but the facts suggest that you’re completely wrong.

[stone]

It's good news, in that the new variant is probably not changing anything significantly, but the hysteria that the government have created whilst covering their arses is going to cause some major real-world problems.

I'll be relieved when/if it's shown that the vaccine is effective against the new variant.

[Offwidth]

My main point is really that with or without the new variant, the rise in cases in London and the South East has not been particularly sudden, and is explained quite reasonably with bog standard Covid. Plenty of examples of cases continuing to rise in the North West back in September whilst effectively being in the equivalent of tier 3. Bolton was a good example.

The recent rise in Kent accelerated and was much faster than Bolton. In any case the tweet I linked shows the new variant went from  minor to dominant in a few weeks from sequence sampling test results. Look at the Guardian map 'On the Rise' , the huge number of areas doubling in a week are much more likely to be due to the new variant (as per the tweet sequencing evidence) than some massive behavioural change. The scientists have published R is 0.4 to 0.9 highe for the mutationr.This is unfortunately a game changer.

[Offwidth]

The best case is that you and Ali are absolutely correct in your cynicism (better posted on the covid & politics thread?) that this is all just a government ploy to ‘cover their arses over not cancelling xmas earlier’.

The much worse case is that there actually IS a much more virulent strain of covid spreading uncontrollably across the UK.

I wish that you were correct, but the facts suggest that you’re completely wrong.

My cynically mind sees this the other way round entirely. As much as I think our government is incompetent at times on covid some of the tory backbenches are plain insane on the subject. I think Boris needed the additional evidence on Friday before he could be confident they would win the internal political battle. I think the data and hospital spare capacity indicates we need a March style lockdown now. Tory backbenchers in the Covid Recovery Group and the ERG are talking about forcing a commons vote to try and reverse Tier 4.

[Stu Littlefair]

To add a glimmer of hope to the outlook, it’s possible that nervtag are wrong about the R increase. 

How quickly a disease grows depends both on R - how many people each case infects - and the serial interval - how long between subsequent infections. It’s not clear from the brief notes if they have reliable data on the serial interval of the new strain, but I’d doubt it at this stage.

If - and it’s a big if - the sudden increase is due in part to a drop in the serial interval then the R increase may be very much towards or below the lower end of the range in those minutes.

The devil is very much in the details here.

If this estimate is correct we are pretty much screwed. The lowest we got R nationally in the lockdown was just over 0.6 - see modelling by imperial college:

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/United_Kingdom

So it will need tough restrictions and much more widespread compliance with them to control this variant.