[mrjonathanr]

You forgot the slashing the laptops for disadvantaged children scheme...

Well, disadvantaged children are simply not a priority for this administration.

Edit. - not right thread for the comment

[Offwidth]

You forgot the slashing the laptops for disadvantaged children scheme...

Well, disadvantaged children are simply not a priority for this administration.

Edit. - not right thread for the comment

Unless UNICEF are feeding them.

Anyhow back on topic a Belgium minister has accidently leaked the vaccine costs to the EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/belgian-minister-accidentally-tweets-eus-covid-vaccine-price-list

[tomtom]

Nice report on one of the rna vaccines. Fairly easy to understand- esp the infographic and main chart at the beginning

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

Anyone doubting how effective a vaccine is should look at the placebo vs vaccine incidence graph.

[tomtom]

Better late than never Boris.

But this is the third time (at least) he’s late to making the obvious call.

Data presented on the new strain looked scary and fairly clear.

Stay safe everyone.

Edit: the one Q that wasn’t at all answered in the presser was - if cases of the new strain were increasing rapidly in Kent during the November lockdown what makes you think these new measures will work?

[ali k]

Better late than never Boris.

16th December: Johnson accuses Starmer of wanting to ‘cancel xmas’ when he suggests the relaxations should be tightened.

19th December: Johnson tightens the relaxations.

[tomtom]

Yup. Can’t stand the twat - but I think he’s made the right decision - but at the wrong time.

Having reflected on the presser - I’m left reading between the lines that they’re shitting themselves about the new strain... maybe I’m going into tin foil hat territory there but that’s my reading of their language ...

Edit - seen a couple of tweets just going around that he’s planning to resign in Jan..

[Fultonius]

Nic's closed the border. I think they're all shitting bricks!

[teestub]

Was there any clarity about whether these new restrictions are going to have a legal basis or just remain guidance?

[abarro81]

Anyone seen the tier 4 rules written down properly anywhere? Trying to work out if you can enter a Tier 4 area in order to use it to leave the country (airport or tunnel)?

[tomtom]

Was there any clarity about whether these new restrictions are going to have a legal basis or just remain guidance?

On the BBC news channel they had one talking head who said that there was a mechanism where it could be made law without going to parliament etc. I expect backbencher tory shire uproar...

Anyone seen the tier 4 rules written down properly anywhere? Trying to work out if you can enter a Tier 4 area in order to use it to leave the country (airport or tunnel)?

Heard you are not allowed to travel abroad from T4... but I expect you can travel through to leave. It’s all allowed if it’s business anyway! So get a letter of invitation to give a talk (or something) where you’re heading and I’m sure that’ll get you out... 

[abarro81]

Looks like they just put the full rules out for tier 4:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home

Looks like it's legit to fly from London or get tunnel from Folkstone if you live in tier 3 (or at least it's not explicitly breaking the law!)..

[Oldmanmatt]

Any idea how strict the Border closure is?

This is the first time it’s gone this far isn’t it?
Things are shutting down all over Europe, even Sweden, apparently.
Seems unlikely that it’s a minor mutation.
Even if it makes no difference to the lethality of an infection, per se, increasing the rate of increase and incidence will increase the mortality rate overall. It was already capable of overwhelming our health services, unchecked, and this seems to be rendering the current checks null.

[teestub]

Looks like it's legit to fly from London or get tunnel from Folkstone if you live in tier 3 (or at least it's not explicitly breaking the law!)..

Have they sorted out the whole Euros not wanting Brits ton travel to their countries after Brexit now?

[petejh]

Looks like they just put the full rules out for tier 4:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home

Looks like it's legit to fly from London or get tunnel from Folkstone if you live in tier 3 (or at least it's not explicitly breaking the law!)..

Wondered the same. Was planning to go ski-touring in the French Alps next week. Looks like the Welsh gov just made it illegal to leave Wales though from midnight tonight.

[tomtom]

@OMM aside from increased cases, illness and ultimately fatalities - a more transmissible virus means we (all) have to recalibrate our distancing measures and behaviour. From how careful we personally are in shops, street - even the crag, to how schools and business is organised. By trial and error we have worked out what level of tier or lockdown reduces or controls spread - now that has to be rethought/toughened up.

Maybe.

[abarro81]

Have they sorted out the whole Euros not wanting Brits ton travel to their countries after Brexit now?

No, you need to be out there before 1st Jan... we're currently working out whether the wrath of my mum if we cancel Christmas is more scary than the risk of a more comprehensive lockdown before we're due to escape (just before new year)!

Looks like the Welsh gov just made it illegal to leave Wales though from midnight tonight.

Run while you can!

[Offwidth]

@OMM aside from increased cases, illness and ultimately fatalities - a more transmissible virus means we (all) have to recalibrate our distancing measures and behaviour. From how careful we personally are in shops, street - even the crag, to how schools and business is organised. By trial and error we have worked out what level of tier or lockdown reduces or controls spread - now that has to be rethought/toughened up.

Maybe.

As hardline as I am on pandemic control I don't agree with that. The same social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing are very likely just as effective. The virus seems more efficient in attacking inside the body (which might also mean higher viral load). If so the virus of whatever mutation only likely spreads indoors in close proximity and outdoor risks should still be low.

I'm still worried this is a game changer. In London, hospitals are full and we have two weeks of hospitalisation growth built in (todays changes will affect numbers from two weeks time). If R is 0.4 higher the virus will not be dropping fast under Tier 4 (we know this as it will be slower than  the normal mutation decline rates during lockdowns). We might be facing a couple of months of beyond hospital capacity. Vaccination versus growth looks much more like a race now.

I was chatting to our triathlete pals with long covid last night who are very active on support groups.  They say evidence is building that athletes are more susceptible than the general public for those with long covid that doesn't arise from severe hospitalisations. Some are said to have been tested with virus hanging around for months, so not post viral as such as it never went away. I've not seen much research evidence on this yet so for the moment it needs to be regarded as anecdotal. Still, it might be wise not to overtrain as a result of frustration.

[andy popp]

Was there any clarity about whether these new restrictions are going to have a legal basis or just remain guidance?

Trying to disentangle this for my daughter, who has a train ticket south from Edinburgh booked for Monday morning - the level to which it will be enforced is as clear as mud. At this point I'm going to tell I don't think she should travel anyway.

By-the-by, Sweden's new "tough" measures are laughable - masks now "recommended" on public transport etc.

[tomtom]

@offwidth - you misunderstood my post. We simply don’t know at the moment - but a major shift in the transmissibility of the virus may mean we have to rethink (towards harsher measures) how we deal with it at the moment. That was my point. It may not of course - but given how the govt has clamped down on travel they clearly thing this is an issue. From my reading of the science - at the moment we have the data showing the new strain is growing much faster - implying it’s better at being transmitted - but how is at the moment unknown.

@andyP saw an article on sky news today saying the govt can legally impose the restrictions (they are law) and have 28 days to pass them retrospectively in parliament. The law was updated at 6am apparently.

[205Chris]

Have they sorted out the whole Euros not wanting Brits ton travel to their countries after Brexit now?

No, you need to be out there before 1st Jan... we're currently working out whether the wrath of my mum if we cancel Christmas is more scary than the risk of a more comprehensive lockdown before we're due to escape (just before new year)!

Looks like the Welsh gov just made it illegal to leave Wales though from midnight tonight.

Run while you can!

Looks like Brits abroad might not be welcome:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55385768

[danm]

Listening to Radio 4 at lunchtime, the backbench Tory MP from the 1922 Committee was about as enraged and scathing about the Government as I've ever heard anyone be. Stormy waters ahead.

[chris j]

I despair at the collective idiocy and thoughtlessness of people...

Govt: Londoners, stay at home because there's this extra virulent strain of the virus around that spreads really easily.

Londoners: Stuff that, let's all catch a train tonight and go stay with Grandma...

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/trains-packed-people-flee-tier-4816981

[teestub]

To some extent I find it hard to blame these people after the govt and particularly Johnson have been saying all week that Christmas is on and there’s no reason to cancel, when he’d seen the evidence and just wanted to delay the decision until it wouldn’t come under scrutiny from his own MPs. I feel like they’ve eroded people’s trust so much now that there’s very little good will left to listen to what they are saying and people are just doing their own thing.

[Oldmanmatt]

A US perspective from an actual epidemiologist, on the implications of the new strain:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.com/

“ New COVID19 strain in UK...

Yes, there is another strain in the UK that MAY be increasing transmissibility. Cases are increasing at exponential rate in Wales. But there are a few things to keep in mind...

To mutate and change is what viruses do. Most of the time it’s meaningless tweak. Sometimes the virus gets worse at infecting us and the new variant just dies out.

Sometimes the virus just gets lucky, in that a new strain hits the right people at the right time. This happened in Spain during the summer. Headlines called it the the “Spanish strain", but the exponential cases was explained by simply people catching it on vacation and bringing it home. It wasn’t due to the new strain. It’s important to keep in mind that the virus spreads with political and social contexts in the background. The UK may be placing the blame of new Christmas shutdowns on science, rather than taking the blame of soaring cases due to lax policies. In other words, this could be political.

Sometimes, though, viruses do find a new winning formula. But, we honestly don’t have the data yet to know the full picture. The World Health Organization is working on it. It will take laboratory experiments to figure out if this variant really is a better spreader than all the others.

Will this impact the effectiveness of the vaccine? Probably not. It takes a collection of mutations to impact vaccines. Vaccines are made with mutations in mind. This UK strain has a mutation on the spike protein of the virus. It’s not the first time we’ve seen a mutation on the spike protein. This gains the attention of scientists, though, because the spike is the virus’s key to unlock the door into our cells. Any changes made to that key can make it easier for the virus to get inside. This mutation is certainly something to keep an eye on.

As one professor (McNally) said: "We know there's a variant, we know nothing about what that means biologically...It is far too early to make any inference on how important this may or may not be."

So, in the meantime, everyone take a big, deep breath. Including those in charge of news headlines. Keep doing what you’re doing. This has no implications (yet) on how we should change behavior. Keep washing those hands, keeping your distance, and wearing masks.

Love, YLE”

Edit:
Just realised this isn’t on her site yet, only in the news letter and FB page.

[tomtom]

Holland, Belgium, Italy and just announced Ireland not accepting travellers from the UK.

@OMM also heard that a strain ‘dying out’ can also lead to proportionately higher amounts of the new strain showing up in the stats. But given the prevalence of the other strains in the rest of the country I doubt that’s the case here.