[Johnny Brown]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Fucking hell. We didn't even need them to fuck up the behavioural 'science', they managed to fuck up the basic stuff. No wonder people have had enough of experts.

[petejh]

Kids in school are a much lower risk than adults mingling, surely that's clear to everyone by now.

What do you mean by ‘lower risk’?
Less likely to develop serious complications? Less likely to increase transmission of the virus than adults?

The former is well known. Do you have any evidence for the latter? Share it please if you do.

 Re the latter, child-child, child-adult and subsequent adult-adult transmission will increase mortality rates as it accelerates the epidemic.

Well-known that they are at less risk of developing serious illness (by orders of magnitude). Also well-known that they will increase transmission rate. Therefore obviously increase overall mortality rate.

Unfortunate reality of a virus like this is that being alive right now increases the transmission rate 

[eastside]

Tbh I don’t really know what’s alllowed.

From what we are reading you must carry a signed attestation of your reason for travel when you leave the house. You are allowed to exercise in the vicinity of your domecile. Very vague but I assume this means walking a few hundred meters through the woods is ok but driving is verboten. Not that there will be gendarmerie in the forest but they may stop people on the road and I doubt saying you're going out to the boulders is going to cut the mustard.

[petejh]

JB, my reading of the situation is that the response the UK started with - the mitigate response -  was the most sensible response given the modelling and the data they had back then - bearing in mind the total shutdown for 6-18 months alternative was complete economic destruction. The data from # of Italian hospitalisations requiring ICU has changed the outlook, and the government has changed the response. I don't see cause for anger, they were doing what they should - acting on the advice of the best science at the time, and they've changed their approach according to new data. That's good.
(not suggesting you personally BTW, but more the social media mob).
Worth restating that we're still ahead of other countries on the curve, obviously London is closer to beginning the rapid exponential rise than the rest of the UK.

Glad I live in a relatively underpopulated part of the country.

Where I do see potential cause for anger is if they don't support businesses and the unemployed.

[tk421a]

I'm posting here because I think this is a much more likely to have a reasonable discussion vs ukc.

Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.

We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).

For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.

[Johnny Brown]

No Pete, they made a very basic error of judgement in using rates of critical care for a different virus. The data was already out there and increasing by the day for this one, as everyone doing back of the envelope calcs could see. Presumably they thought the difference between us and China would be greater than this virus and another. Not angry, just dismayed at what looks a lot like yet more misguided English exceptionalism.

[petejh]

I'll reserve judgement JB as that isn't what I've seen, but fair enough.

TK421a: I understand your thinking but three obvious points that spring immediately to mind are:
a. when lead climbing, you're touching multiple surfaces (which others have touched) and then putting your hand in your mouth when clipping (most people's clipping looks like: grab rope, rope goes in mouth, grab more rope and make clip).

Just based on that makes me think this can't be the right thing to encourage.
Two other points:
b. climbing is a sweaty activity. Imagine you filmed a crowd of climbers for 1 hour. And then imagine watching back the film and seeing how many times those climbers will wipe their brows, touch their faces, etc. All while repeatedly touching potentially infected surfaces.
c. increased risk  of injury - especially a+e type injury.

The whole activity of indoor climbing seems, to my non-expert eyes, to go against what we should be doing to reduce transmission. Also factor in that many indoor climbers will be in the high risk group of older people.

I don't envy your position. That's my take.. But I'd love to keep on climbing indoors or out as well!

[Ru]

JB, my reading of the situation is that the response the UK started with - the mitigate response -  was the most sensible response given the data we had back then. The data from # of Italian hospitalisations requiring ICU has changed the outlook, and the government has changed the response.

That's a pretty generous take on things, given people were demonstrating that it couldn't work from the outset. The ICU admission rate in china, known in early Feb, was 5%. Italy is 8%. Happy to be proved wrong, but that 3% difference isn't enough to tip between mitigation working and not working based on some simple sums.

[tomtom]

Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.

We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).

For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.

Thats hard doors. I hope the Government takes steps like Macron seems to have done to help businesses like yours.

I have to say - that I think you being open right now is wrong. You say you can mininise spread by handwashing, the main vector via aersols and regarding fomites on surfaces cite some government agencies. Thats a few ifs buts and maybe's in there...

According to the modelling cited in the thread above the difference between social distancing being implemented (AND people abiding by it) or not implemented  in the UK is 180 000 deaths. Can we afford to take the chance that you are right?

I'm not. I am steering well clear of climbing walls until this has gone.

Sorry TK421a - I hate to think what is going to happen to thousands of small businesses like yours and the people who are employed by them over the next year.

[Oldmanmatt]

I'm posting here because I think this is a much more likely to have a reasonable discussion vs ukc.

Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.

We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).

For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.

It’s going to be hard to not shut down.

The attacks and “slagging off” have already started. Even if, like us, you are just waiting to discuss with your staff and other affected parties, before you hang a sign on the door.

People stand to lose their livelihoods and the government have not given any clear indication of any intent to mitigate this. The extent, so far, is a promise to provide a grant of £3k, but no indication of how to claim.
Our staff stand to lose, our landlord stands to lose and we will lose everything we had left.

And, no, the insurance doesn’t cover this.

[spidermonkey09]

Economic reality bites. Just fielded a phone call from my boss and hung up having taken a 1/3 pay cut. Simultaneously feels prudent and fair enough and like I've been kicked in the nads.

[Duma]

I have no problem with walls, or any other business, staying open in an attempt to stay afloat and avoid redundancies whilst the government has not instructed them to close. Advising their customers to abandon them whilst offering no support or guaruntees is outrageous.

[tk421a]

I'll reserve judgement JB as that isn't what I've seen, but fair enough.

TK421a: I understand your thinking but three obvious points that spring immediately to mind are:
a. when lead climbing, you're touching multiple surfaces (which others have touched) and then putting your hand in your mouth when clipping (most people's clipping looks like: grab rope, rope goes in mouth, grab more rope and make clip).

Just based on that makes me think this can't be the right thing to encourage.
Two other points:
b. climbing is a sweaty activity. Imagine you filmed a crowd of climbers for 1 hour. And then imagine watching back the film and seeing how many times those climbers will wipe their brows, touch their faces, etc. All while repeatedly touching potentially infected surfaces.
c. increased risk  of injury - especially a+e type injury.

The whole activity of indoor climbing seems, to my non-expert eyes, to go against what we should be doing to reduce transmission. Also factor in that many indoor climbers will be in the high risk group of older people.

I don't envy your position. That's my take.. But I'd love to keep on climbing indoors or out as well!

Sorry, I should add, I fully support everyone staying at home. I certainly would for a few days while the picture develops.
(a) Don't lead?
(b) I agree - current CDC guidance - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmission.html
"It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."
(c) This I agree I don't know how to deal with. I can only assume that if the government wanted everything to stop they would have said so.

[Duma]

That's shit spidermonkey, commiserations. And OMM, hope you can get through this.

Feeling very lucky to have secure work atm (so secure my boss has to provide the gov with daily updates on staff health...)

[spidermonkey09]

I have no problem with walls, or any other business, staying open in an attempt to stay afloat and avoid redundancies whilst the government has not instructed them to close. Advising their customers to abandon them whilst offering no support or guaruntees is outrageous.

I agree with this.

[tk421a]

Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.

We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).

For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.

Thats hard doors. I hope the Government takes steps like Macron seems to have done to help businesses like yours.

I have to say - that I think you being open right now is wrong. You say you can mininise spread by handwashing, the main vector via aersols and regarding fomites on surfaces cite some government agencies. Thats a few ifs buts and maybe's in there...

According to the modelling cited in the thread above the difference between social distancing being implemented (AND people abiding by it) or not implemented  in the UK is 180 000 deaths. Can we afford to take the chance that you are right?

I'm not. I am steering well clear of climbing walls until this has gone.

Sorry TK421a - I hate to think what is going to happen to thousands of small businesses like yours and the people who are employed by them over the next year.

I agree and support your choice. See my above post for the CDC guidance on surface transmission. I agree there's many variables but we're doing our best to control what we can control (and you should too, if going to the wall is too much of a risk for you). Not much else but to try and follow the current advice.

[seankenny]

I think the problem we have is that if climbing walls, cafes, pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, etc etc all close, it is quite impossible for the insurance industry to cover those losses. The state has to step in and become the insurer of last resort. It can rely on tax receipts years and years into the future to pay for this now. Otherwise millions of people face ruin.

If the government don’t get this then they are screwed, especially given we can look to France and see what they’re doing.

[tk421a]

I'm posting here because I think this is a much more likely to have a reasonable discussion vs ukc.

Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.

We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).

For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.

It’s going to be hard to not shut down.

The attacks and “slagging off” have already started. Even if, like us, you are just waiting to discuss with your staff and other affected parties, before you hang a sign on the door.

People stand to lose their livelihoods and the government have not given any clear indication of any intent to mitigate this. The extent, so far, is a promise to provide a grant of £3k, but no indication of how to claim.
Our staff stand to lose, our landlord stands to lose and we will lose everything we had left.

And, no, the insurance doesn’t cover this.

Which insurance do you have? Town and Country have given us a "maybe some limited cover, we won't know until we start submitting claims" line.

I can see some small possibility where everything in the world continues to run to a much lower degree rather than a full shutdown for months.

[Andy W]

Tbh I don’t really know what’s alllowed.

From what we are reading you must carry a signed attestation of your reason for travel when you leave the house. You are allowed to exercise in the vicinity of your domecile. Very vague but I assume this means walking a few hundred meters through the woods is ok but driving is verboten. Not that there will be gendarmerie in the forest but they may stop people on the road and I doubt saying you're going out to the boulders is going to cut the mustard.

Eastside that's my take on the situation as well. We have to see how strict the police enforcement will be. Personally the fines they are talking about seem a bit low, if we are locked down for weeks, a 38 euro fine for a days bouldering (obvs avoiding all people) might seem like a good deal. Until then I am being a responsible citizen, I just hope the rest of France   does as well. Good luck with the project!

[teestub]

I have no problem with walls, or any other business, staying open in an attempt to stay afloat and avoid redundancies whilst the government has not instructed them to close. Advising their customers to abandon them whilst offering no support or guaruntees is outrageous.

100% that ‘we expect you to close’ or whatever it was is pure bullshit.

[spidermonkey09]

That's shit spidermonkey, commiserations.

I'm lucky as my overheads are pretty low at the moment (living with girlfriend in her house) so should manage fine, but doubtless there will be millions across the country who will very shortly be in dire straits.

[SA Chris]

Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based

Not sure if mentioned as well but;

1) Realisation that we don't all have to commute to work every single day of the week
2) Companies taking a view that it's not strictly necessary to fly halfway round the world to shake someone's hand, talk about the weather, reach an agreement on something and sign a bit of paper.

[petejh]

I think the problem we have is that if climbing walls, cafes, pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, etc etc all close, it is quite impossible for the insurance industry to cover those losses. The state has to step in and become the insurer of last resort. It can rely on tax receipts years and years into the future to pay for this now. Otherwise millions of people face ruin.

If the government don’t get this then they are screwed, especially given we can look to France and see what they’re doing.

Yeah this.
TK - another take on this situation.  If the gov don't introduce radical financial aid rapidly this week, then the public sentiment that may start to emerge after a number of weeks of sitting at home watching the economy be destroyed, will be at odds with the goal of staying at home. I say that because the government have used the term 'non-essential travel and contact'. A country full of businesses and individuals going to the wall (financially) through no fault of their own, without support from its government, will most likely begin to reason what is essential and what isn't. Possibility of saying fuck the government, and start going to the wall (climbing type). Obviously this sort of situation isn't a desirable or sustainable siatuaion. So the only rational way is financial aid.

Tough decisions ahead. What isn't sustainable is the status quo.

[tomtom]

I agree and support your choice. See my above post for the CDC guidance on surface transmission. I agree there's many variables but we're doing our best to control what we can control (and you should too, if going to the wall is too much of a risk for you). Not much else but to try and follow the current advice.

Sorry - what I have highligted above is a fundamental misunderstanding of the whole point of social distancing - it is really important to make the point below.

This is not about my personal risk - its about the risk to EVERYONE. I have a low mortality risk from CV19 - but all the people I may contact and the people they may contact and the people may contact etc.. etc.. may not.

This is so so important. It is not about you - its about reducing the spread for everyone - this in turn reduces the risk for the old and vulnerable. This is the fundamental shift from the 'let it spread a bit amongst the healthy but shield the vulnerable' approach we had up until yesterday.

[Offwidth]

Latest Guardian articles on front line concerns:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/16/not-fit-for-purpose-uk-medics-condemn-covid-19-protection

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/im-losing-faith-in-the-leadership-a-doctors-story-coronavirus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/everyone-is-scared-to-speak-up-nhs-staff-need-covid-19-tests

Plus some positive stuff on how people can add to those helping the vulnerable locally.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/covid-19-mutual-aid-how-to-help-the-vulnerable-near-you


....and to cheer people up (who are maybe desparing about the panic buying of guns in the US) some countries in the EU panic buy very differently

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/dutch-panic-buyers-queue-round-block-cannabis-12405192/