[tomtom]

A GE will not sort out anything though.

Whoever wins - 45-55% of the population will be unhappy with their brexit position...

Like a toddler riding a bike - the UK needs to fall over and hurt itself before it understands what the dangers are and what to do and not do.

I'm increasingly coming to the unsavoury view that maybe we need to hard brexit and experience all the shit that brings - so the stupid, shortsighted, deluded Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party that have driven this whole process (going back over 40 years) and those that have followed them most leave voters realise what a really really bad idea it was. 

Not sure I can see a different way out of this (looking at the longer term)....

[tomtom]

To add...

Last week I was in Utrecht for a publication meeting - and there were journal editors from all over Europe (who I all know quite well now). Many people asked about Brexit... three people (separately) from NL, Austria and Germany all said to me that the one positive thing about Brexit was that in their own countries - it had killed off stone dead any 'leave EU' type movements. The far right was there still - but leave EU parties had all shrivelled up. In the NL gone from 15-20% support to sub 5%.

[Oldmanmatt]

+1

[teestub]

A GE will not sort out anything though.

Well it will sort out is having a minority government and an essentially unelected PM, so I guess that’s a step in the right direction!

Agree with you overall though.

[mrjonathanr]

I'm increasingly coming to the unsavoury view that maybe we need to hard brexit and experience all the shit that brings -

People like you and me will manage though, Tomtom. Old, infirm, disabled, trapped in areas where the main employment has tanked without the skills to adapt or move- these people will pay a different sort of price.

The misery of a hard Brexit will definitely not be spread evenly.

[TobyD]

I'm increasingly coming to the unsavoury view that maybe we need to hard brexit and experience all the shit that brings -

People like you and me will manage though, Tomtom. Old, infirm, disabled, trapped in areas where the main employment has tanked without the skills to adapt or move- these people will pay a different sort of price.

The misery of a hard Brexit will definitely not be spread evenly.

I agree entirely. Many farmers, smaller food businesses will be ruined overnight. I'd like to think that at least some medical supplies have been planned for by the government, but they are likely to have disregarded or not thought about things like incontinence pads, commodes etc etc  used in many thousands in care homes and by agencies, which would be a massive decrease in quality of life for an awful lot of people.

[tomtom]

Yup. Agree MrJA and Toby. It was posted with heavy heart.

[tomtom]

Interesting commentary from a history prof at Kings.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/09/brexit-crisis-global-capitalism-britain-place-world

some choice quotes below:

RE: Links between capitalism and the conservative party (or lack there-of in recent years) "Since the 1970s things have changed radically. Today there is no such thing as British national capitalism. London is a place where world capitalism does business – no longer one where British capitalism does the world’s business."

"Brexit is a necessary crisis, and has provided a long overdue audit of British realities. It exposes the nature of the economy, the new relations of capitalism to politics and the weakness of the state. It brings to light, in stunning clarity, Brexiters’ deluded political understanding of the UK’s place in the world. From a new understanding, a new politics of national improvement might come; without it we will remain stuck in the delusional, revivalist politics of a banana monarchy."

[TobyD]

Interesting commentary from a history prof at Kings.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/09/brexit-crisis-global-capitalism-britain-place-world

some choice quotes below:

RE: Links between capitalism and the conservative party (or lack there-of in recent years) "Since the 1970s things have changed radically. Today there is no such thing as British national capitalism. London is a place where world capitalism does business – no longer one where British capitalism does the world’s business."

"Brexit is a necessary crisis, and has provided a long overdue audit of British realities. It exposes the nature of the economy, the new relations of capitalism to politics and the weakness of the state. It brings to light, in stunning clarity, Brexiters’ deluded political understanding of the UK’s place in the world. From a new understanding, a new politics of national improvement might come; without it we will remain stuck in the delusional, revivalist politics of a banana monarchy."

Interesting,  the Times has a comment piece by Daniel Finkelstein saying a similar thing about the leave lobby's assumptions about the USA cooperating on trade, and British power relations.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-america-only-looks-after-itself-q2ggk7jdj?shareToken=7c6104ab7f9a4e4a2b4a06c5e753ef2c

Also, my previous comments about really important medical supplies having been planned for are rebutted by this NHS report:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/winter-crisis-will-be-worse-under-no-deal-say-doctors-5pz5vxpnf?shareToken=1804c7b5e496b6f82244cc4975562396

[SA Chris]

The misery of a hard Brexit will definitely not be spread evenly.

I think it will also hit us at random in areas we never anticipated. Higher Ed, Commerce, Local or Regional "Government" dependant services, those of us in industries dependent on a volatile market. I think very few will not see significant impact in their immediate circle of family and friends in one way or another.

[slab_happy]

Also, my previous comments about really important medical supplies having been planned for are rebutted by this NHS report:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/winter-crisis-will-be-worse-under-no-deal-say-doctors-5pz5vxpnf?shareToken=1804c7b5e496b6f82244cc4975562396

See also: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/ministers-still-do-not-know-nhs-cope-no-deal-brexit-report
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/06/conservative-election-impact-on-securing-medical-supplies-before-a-no-deal-brexit

As a bonus, this is occurring on top of a situation where there are already shortages of various medications (including some anti-depresssants, epilepsy meds, painkillers, and blood pressure meds) occurring for non-Brexit-related reasons:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/hrt-hormone-therapy-medicine-shortage-exports-department-of-health-a9131776.html

[tomtom]

Indy commentary suggesting BJ may go for a second ref as a way out of his present zero sum game. Interesting idea...

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-boris-johnson-cummings-referendum-final-say-vote-no-deal-a9148876.html

[TobyD]

I really  empathise with many of the points in this article,  I'm increasingly confused and upset by the use of the language of conflict that has become the currency of, first the fringe erg extremists such as Marc Francois, and now Johnson and Cummings.  Its worrying,  and wrong.

Brexiters’ adoption of war language will stop Britain from finding peace

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/12/brexiters-adoption-war-language-will-stop-britain-finding-peace?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[winhill]

These figures are from YouGov which tends to overstate Tory positions but really, with Momentum calling for unpopular MPs to be recalled, what can they say about such an unpopular leader (esp given that the choice is Boris!)

Who'd make best Prime Minister?

Johnson 43% (+2)
Corbyn 21% (-)
Not sure 32% (-2)

Leavers 73-6 for Johnson
Women 38-20 Johnson
18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson
Working class 44-17 Johnson
Middle class 42-23 Johnson
London 32-29 Johnson

Apparently amongst Remainers Not Sure is a nailed on winner.

[teestub]

Well I for one am shocked that the Democratic UNIONIST Party have issues with a deal that treats NI differently to the rest of the UK...

[tommytwotone]

Deal done apparently.

Looks like parly will sit on Saturday, with potential for a motion for a confirmatory referendum to be attached to said deal...

[lukeyboy]

Looks like it's now just the worst ever game of 'would you rather'. An end result that literally no-one wanted.

Hoping the DUP won't cut off their nose to spite our collective face

[monkoffunk]

This is pretty much border down the Irish Sea. DUP were never going to back this.

[James Malloch]

This was interesting... the deal may be in breach of UK law following an amendment by the ERG last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/16/brexit-legal-action-stop-boris-johnson-putting-withdrawal-agreement-before-mps

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/22/section/55/enacted

[Oldmanmatt]

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-the-new-brexit-deal-explained

[tommytwotone]

Prediction time:

• Parliament sits on Saturday
• No weight behind move to amend motion to tack on confirmatory referendum(
• Meaningful vote doesn't pass
• Boris writes letter(s) to EU, reluctantly ends up with an extension
• Parliament either votes through election, or motion of no confidence ends up with an election
• Boris campaigns on "look, I had a deal - those bloody parliamentarians wouldn't vote for it - vote for me if you want Brexit"
• Tory win, substantial majority
• Boris deal passes
• Tories begin wholesale deconstruction of NHS, worker's rights etc, probably just before / during impending global recession

[SA Chris]

Happy days Nostradamus.

[James Malloch]

Is anyone going to London tomorrow for the people’s march?

[tomtom]

Or planning to move to NI?

[Oldmanmatt]

Happy days Nostradamus.

The big N was almost always wrong though...