[erm, sam]

Is anyone going to London tomorrow for the people’s march?

We will be there. We happen to be in London anyway, but went down specially for the last one..

[Oldmanmatt]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/18/how-much-johnson-great-new-deal-actually-new?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1571394455

[Bonjoy]

Prediction time:

• Parliament sits on Saturday
• No weight behind move to amend motion to tack on confirmatory referendum(
• Meaningful vote doesn't pass
• Boris writes letter(s) to EU, reluctantly ends up with an extension
• Parliament either votes through election, or motion of no confidence ends up with an election
• Boris campaigns on "look, I had a deal - those bloody parliamentarians wouldn't vote for it - vote for me if you want Brexit"
• Tory win, substantial majority
• Boris deal passes
• Tories begin wholesale deconstruction of NHS, worker's rights etc, probably just before / during impending global recession

Sounds about right.
I'd add that the economy will tank with or without world recession and austerity two will be rolled out and all the election spending promises cancelled. Recession will be used as the excuse for the coming bonfire of worker's rights and environmental protections, which was the right's whole reason for brexit all along.

[i.munro]

Chances of avoiding the nightmare below just got worse.
Having fled the U.K. for a country with , you know a working Govt,I just had an e-mail saying effectively that my postal vote isn't worth jackshit! So that's the votes of the millions most affected by this shitshow neatly discounted then.

Prediction time:

• Parliament sits on Saturday
• No weight behind move to amend motion to tack on confirmatory referendum(
• Meaningful vote doesn't pass
• Boris writes letter(s) to EU, reluctantly ends up with an extension
• Parliament either votes through election, or motion of no confidence ends up with an election
• Boris campaigns on "look, I had a deal - those bloody parliamentarians wouldn't vote for it - vote for me if you want Brexit"
• Tory win, substantial majority
• Boris deal passes
• Tories begin wholesale deconstruction of NHS, worker's rights etc, probably just before / during impending global recession

[tommytwotone]

I think Magic Grandpa has gamed this one really badly - or been out-gamed by the Tories, I can't work out which.


I'll happily be proved wrong come the election but given his general poll ratings re: public confidence, the fudging and re-fudging of the Brexit position - I can't help but feel like the rule of the game changed with Brexit, and the Labour party haven't caught up yet.


And yes - the recession is coming, no doubt about that, and it'll be nothing to do with domestic matters but will probably shape the fiscal and political landscape for the next generation.

[TobyD]

I think Magic Grandpa has gamed this one really badly - or been out-gamed by the Tories, I can't work out which.


I'll happily be proved wrong come the election but given his general poll ratings re: public confidence, the fudging and re-fudging of the Brexit position - I can't help but feel like the rule of the game changed with Brexit, and the Labour party haven't caught up yet.


And yes - the recession is coming, no doubt about that, and it'll be nothing to do with domestic matters but will probably shape the fiscal and political landscape for the next generation.

Corbyns best hope electorally as Phillip Collins observes in the times today is to campaign strongly for remain in a hypothetical second referendum. Unfortunately for him this isn't what he believes in, so it's very unlikely.

I wonder how effective Landsmans threats of deselection will be at swinging Labour MPs. Frankly I can't see the deal getting through anyway, the lesson of Brexit so far is that if it can get more chaotic and difficult then it will.

I'd like the deal to pass, reluctantly; because if Farage is against it, it must be a good thing.

[Will Hunt]

Remain felt well and truly snookered yesteday. Seeing the display of back-slapping from the EU27 and Johnson was one of the most depressing scenes of the whole saga. It doesn't matter if the deal is better or worse than May's, it is Boris' deal, and that for most Leavers will be enough to convince them. With the EU27 and the Leavers on board, any rejection by Parliament is a clear indicator of their being against The Will Of The People. The only logical way to proceed being to call a general election which will result in a more compliant parliament stuffed with Leave supporters.

[James Malloch]

The Letwin amendment is an interesting one - where the deal will not pass until the required legislation has also passed. This is an effort to ensure the UK doesn't end up leaving with no deal if the deal is voted for.

What an awful time we live in where a government can't be trusted to go along with parliamentary votes...

[tomtom]

if this deal passes - it gives Johnson and his team the green light to negotiate the future deal (inc no deal) however they want.

It is a colossal mistake to suggest it’s ‘alright’.

If it passes - then I bet there won’t be an election... and Labour Lib snp will have been very successfully played.

I had little bit some trust in Mays govt to handle future negotiations reasonably - this lot? Nutters.

I truly truly hope it doesn’t pass tomorrow. I see no benefits to the country if it does.

[teestub]

If it passes - then I bet there won’t be an election... and Labour Lib snp will have been very successfully played.

This seems an unlikely outcome given the conservatives current minority govt. Passing the deal (“getting Brexit done”) will surely put Joris in a stronger election position?

[tommytwotone]

Yes - I think that while some kind of anti-Boris / anti-Brexit alliance had a fighting change were an election to have been called a month or so ago, now he's got his deal the only possible outcome of an election is a sizable Tory majority.

Part of me just wants it all to just happen now, rip off the plaster etc - let the turkeys see what Christmas really means for them.

[tomtom]

If it passes - then I bet there won’t be an election... and Labour Lib snp will have been very successfully played.

This seems an unlikely outcome given the conservatives current minority govt. Passing the deal (“getting Brexit done”) will surely put Joris in a stronger election position?

Or - once its done gets the DUP to swing back behind him. Starts to re-instate the whip on the 21...

[teestub]

What would be the logic for not having an election when you’re in the cards for a sizeable majority, rather than having to rely on confidence and supply with DUP who you have just pissed off?

[abarro81]

What would be the logic for not having an election when you’re in the cards for a sizeable majority, rather than having to rely on confidence and supply with DUP who you have just pissed off?

Especially as if the deal goes through with Labout rebels help, Labour will suffer a hit from remain voters pissed at that and at Corbyn's general incompetence over Brexit

[tomtom]

What would be the logic for not having an election when you’re in the cards for a sizeable majority, rather than having to rely on confidence and supply with DUP who you have just pissed off?

Especially as if the deal goes through with Labout rebels help, Labour will suffer a hit from remain voters pissed at that and at Corbyn's general incompetence over Brexit

True - but that was Mays line of thinking - and see how that payed off.

At the moment he is prime minister - and I think he's going to cling on to that for as long as he can.
Once the 'deal' is passed (OK - or if) then does he need parliament to ratify the future/further trade agreements?? If he does then yes it will be GE time.. but if not I bet he won't...

I dunno. I find this all so utterly depressing at the moment... there is nothing we can do about it (apart from demonstrate) its now all in the hands of our MP's who seem to be following a very divergent and fluid set of directions...

[teestub]

Putting Brexit aside for the moment, he will certainly need parliament on his side to get any of his domestic agenda going, including passing a budget!

[Teaboy]

I'd like the deal to pass, reluctantly; because if Farage is against it, it must be a good thing.

Are you on drugs? It's a fucking awful deal, NI aside it contains all the worst things of May's deal and adds to them taking by us further away from any sort of alignment with the EU. This opens the door to a fucking Pandora's Box of a deal with the US and the burning of any regulations that EU have imposed (generally these have not been bad).

Not that I give a flying fuck what Garage thinks but if he is genuinely against it (and who knows, he's a lying cunt) it's because it's the end of the gravy train for him if it passed. Much as I'd like to see the smug twat shafted it's nothing compared to the shafting the country will take. Remember this deal is the most economically damaging possible short of a no deal, 6% GDP gets you an awful lot of welfare services.

[tomtom]

I did wonder if someone had hijacked your account Toby..!

[petejh]

I'd like the deal to pass, reluctantly; because if Farage is against it, it must be a good thing.

This opens the door to a fucking Pandora's Box of a deal with the US and the burning of any regulations that EU have imposed (generally these have not been bad).

I thought regulations are made by elected governments. Labour can propose whatever regulations to uphold workers rights they want... if they can convince the country to believe in their policies and vote for them in a democratic election, they would then have the authority to introduce those regulations.

[Teaboy]

I thought regulations are made by elected governments. Labour can propose whatever regulations to uphold workers rights they want... if they can convince the country to believe in their policies and vote for them in a democratic election, they would then have the authority to introduce those regulations.

In the last 40 years Labour have been in power for 13 of them. There seems a dim prospect of that figure being extended in the next 5, at least.

[sdm]

What would be the logic for not having an election when you’re in the cards for a sizeable majority, rather than having to rely on confidence and supply with DUP who you have just pissed off?

The Conservatives can't call an election without Labour support or we would have had one already. Labour have said they won't support an election until the possibility of no deal has been ruled out.

With the backstop now being toast, my understanding is that under Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement, the transition period lasts until November 2020 (?), after which we would have to request an extension or the default would be that we (the mainland) leave without a deal (should familiar).

So under Corbyn's previous conditions, he shouldn't agree to an election until we have actually signed a deal and left the EU. But I expect he will be out manoeuvred and we'll end up with an election before the electorate understands the reality of the withdrawal agreement.

[TobyD]

I did wonder if someone had hijacked your account Toby..!

  I wasn't being entirely serious,  sorry. It is an extremely bad deal, I fully acknowledge.  I personally would 100% rather be in the EU,  if i could apply to be French i would.  However,  I'm British, pragmatic,  and realistically it may be the best way to avoid no deal. It's pretty bloody depressing but there you go. As its almost universally recognised,  May's deal was better,  and I wonder how many MPs regret voting it down repeatedly. 

[Stabbsy]

What would be the logic for not having an election when you’re in the cards for a sizeable majority, rather than having to rely on confidence and supply with DUP who you have just pissed off?

The Conservatives can't call an election without Labour support or we would have had one already. Labour have said they won't support an election until the possibility of no deal has been ruled out.

With the backstop now being toast, my understanding is that under Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement, the transition period lasts until November 2020 (?), after which we would have to request an extension or the default would be that we (the mainland) leave without a deal (should familiar).

So under Corbyn's previous conditions, he shouldn't agree to an election until we have actually signed a deal and left the EU. But I expect he will be out manoeuvred and we'll end up with an election before the electorate understands the reality of the withdrawal agreement.

My interpretation was that the Corbyn condition refers to the withdrawal agreement. Once that’s signed, we leave the EU. I think the transition period is a separate thing and refers more to the trade deal, not the deal for leaving the EU. The EU won’t negotiate on trade until we’ve left and we can’t negotiate with other non-EU states until we’ve left, so the transition period gives us time to do this (not very much time admittedly, but we know trade deals are pretty simple so should be a piece of piss). So, if this passes Parliament, we will leave the EU with a deal, but could end with no EU trade deal.

So I don’t think it’s a question of Corbyn being outmanoeuvred into calling an election. His conditions will have passed.

[sdm]

I would consider any situation that sees Corbyn supporting an early election that is likely to lead to a Conservative majority as being outmanoeuvred.

If they have an election where Johnson can claim to have a "deal" but before reality bites, I expect he'll get his majority.

[TobyD]

What would be the logic for not having an election when you’re in the cards for a sizeable majority, rather than having to rely on confidence and supply with DUP who you have just pissed off?

The Conservatives can't call an election without Labour support or we would have had one already. Labour have said they won't support an election until the possibility of no deal has been ruled out.

With the backstop now being toast, my understanding is that under Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement, the transition period lasts until November 2020 (?), after which we would have to request an extension or the default would be that we (the mainland) leave without a deal (should familiar).

So under Corbyn's previous conditions, he shouldn't agree to an election until we have actually signed a deal and left the EU. But I expect he will be out manoeuvred and we'll end up with an election before the electorate understands the reality of the withdrawal agreement.

 The EU won’t negotiate on trade until we’ve left and we can’t negotiate with other non-EU states until we’ve left, so the transition period gives us time to do this (not very much time admittedly, but we know trade deals are pretty simple so should be a piece of piss).

The idea that this government can get a trade deal with the eu by the end of 2020 is laughable.  Anything less than a decade would be pretty good going.

This article  may have rather changed my view on the deal
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mps-must-beware-becoming-brexiteers-useful-idiots-3ksg68w68?shareToken=5887eed1d003a72061171221d2e71496