[abarro81]

Pete, I've dipped very sporadically into this thread, but as far as I can tell you've said the following at some point:
- Trying to make economic predictions 20 years in the future is worthless
- Brexit will cause short term pain/hiccups

I may be wrong on the above, if so sorry and Ignore this post.
Presuming the above is right, then what sort of logic would allow Brexit to be a sensible decision economically? It eludes me...

Of course your main psyche for Brexit may be some vague notion of freedom or governing ourselves r whatever, in which case I'll just have to agree to disagree on whether I'd trust Brussels or Whitehall to do a better job.

[Teaboy]

Economic predictions for 20 years hence, really??? Total and utter bollocks and a complete waste of time. You might as well ask the tea leaves.

I'm mindful to agree except this is the sort of time frame we're told is when the economic benefits of Brexit will start to be felt. Obviously we can't take his prediction as gospel but it's an opinion worth considering. Besides, he's saying this is what he thinks it'll be like in 20 years and presumably represents an end game of sorts. The implication being that the decline will begin way before, probably in the sort of timeframes you would consider more predictable.

[slackline]

Most people that voted for it didn't understand what they voted for.

Not a single person who voted for Brexit understood what they voted for because there was and still isn't a clear definition of what it will mean.

[dave]

Pete in cartoon dog form.

[petejh]

 
Jesus.

[seankenny]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-guy-hands-says-cut-wages-30-percent-twenty-years-private-equity-a7540986.html

Just read it.


All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. I always forget to put those smiley things...

Economic predictions for 20 years hence, really??? Total and utter bollocks and a complete waste of time. You might as well ask the tea leaves.

Clearly the man's predictions are guestimates based on an extrapolation of current trends, and as such unreliable, as you rightly point out. Of course, rather than make overall forecasts (a mug's game), people have and will make conditional forecasts which tend to be more accurate.

But let's ignore those, to level the playing field in your direction because clearly you're in the minority here and it's good to play nice with minorities (isn't it?).

We could instead look at the short term outlook for employment and wage growth. That isn't good.
http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-rf-earnings-outlook-q3-2016/
Is this acceptable as part of the inevitable adjustment process, or do you worry that it might be a long-term loss?

And moving away from forecasting, what's your view on Mrs May's suggestion that we might become, basically, a tax haven? Is this what you voted for?

[i.munro]

Interesting stuff from the (IMO extremely r-wing) Standard about a report on UK manufacturing.
The manufacturing sector is split into 5 categories  according to vulnerability to Brexit of which the first 3 (the least vulnerable) are

1) Innovative producers with a genuine competetive edge (e.g. Rolls-Royce)
2) Strongly branded products with specific British connections (e.g Scotch & Burberry)
3) Locational producers which need to be close to their market (e.g. Food products)

However the 1st 2 provide only  9% and 5% of manufacturing jobs respectively.
Their conclusion - 64% of manufacturiing jobs are likely to be "wiped out".

[Oldmanmatt]

I had to double check, but it seems the Economist is considered right wing.
However, they don't seem to like May or Trump (or Brexit) very much:

"A fact of the modern world, sadly overlooked in the referendum, is bringing itself to bear on Britain: control and autonomy are not the same thing. The country is party to some 700 treaties, member of myriad international organisations and spends tens of billions on a nuclear deterrent unusable without America (this week it transpired that, at Washington’s behest, Parliament had been kept in the dark when a missile went off course in a test). In each of these cases, Britain trades pure self-determination for real influence: the ability to shape its economic, security and environmental circumstances. Its membership of the EU is just one of many such deals. Leaving the club reinstates some control to Britain but requires it to trade away control in other ways. Will the result be a country any more able to chart its own course, as chosen by its own democratically elected leaders? Watch the prime minister’s excruciating embrace of Mr Trump and decide."

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21715652-leaving-european-union-means-country-has-less-not-more-control-over-its?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/britainsexcruciatingembraceofdonaldtrumpshowshowlittleindependenceithasgainedfrombrexit


All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. I always forget to put those smiley things...

[erm]

I had to double check, but it seems the Economist is considered right wing.

In case it interests anyone.

"What, besides free trade and free markets, does The Economist believe in? "It is to the Radicals that The Economist still likes to think of itself as belonging. The extreme centre is the paper's historical position." That is as true today as when former Economist editor Geoffrey Crowther said it in 1955. The Economist considers itself the enemy of privilege, pomposity and predictability. It has backed conservatives such as Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. It has supported the Americans in Vietnam. But it has also endorsed Harold Wilson and Bill Clinton, and espoused a variety of liberal causes: opposing capital punishment from its earliest days, while favouring penal reform and decolonisation, as well as—more recently—gun control and gay marriage."
-- The Economist

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_editorial_stance

[jfdm]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/26/corbyn-to-impose-three-line-whip-on-labour-mps-to-trigger-article-50-brexit
Labour lost its way a while ago.
Looks as though the Brexit vote will maybe cause St Jez a lot of problems.
Possibly enough to remove him, who knows maybe the bye election in Stoke might?
I don't understand Jez positioning, majority of Lab voted Remain.
If there was an early election (I know about the fix term bit) I would expect Lab wipe out. 
Lots of family have been Lab members but have not renewed membership this time around.

[i.munro]

Didn't Corbyn say quite recently something about British working people not being able to affoed withdrawal from the single market  (obviously true) and I saw an interview with Umuna (about as anti-Corbyn as you can get) spouting some nonsense about voting for Article 50 but then opposing it later.   Can anyone explain Labour's position I'm lost.

[jfdm]

Didn't Corbyn say quite recently something about British working people not being able to affoed withdrawal from the single market  (obviously true) and I saw an interview with Umuna (about as anti-Corbyn as you can get) spouting some nonsense about voting for Article 50 but then opposing it later.   Can anyone explain Labour's position I'm lost.

The position is referred to as "flip-flop."
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/608678/Labour-conference-2015-Jeremy-Corbyn-red-socks-sandals-speech-Twitter
Shame from the express, forgive me...for I have sinned...

[i.munro]

Shame from the express, forgive me...for I have sinned...

Indeed! Nicely juxtaposed with a climate change denial article. Thanks.
That wasn't a rhetorical question I actually want to find out.

[jfdm]

Shame from the express, forgive me...for I have sinned...

Indeed! Nicely juxtaposed with a climate change denial article. Thanks.
That wasn't a rhetorical question I actually want to find out.

I asked myself the same thing the other day.
I went and had a look at the Labour Party website.
http://www.labour.org.uk
It isn't very clear.
The main page concentrates on NHS and getting new members.
There are no really defined bullet point policies about Brexit, Trident etc.
Or links to deeper thinking about these issues.
All bits and bobs taken from twitter and facebook.
It looks a bit of a shambles to me.

[Oldmanmatt]

Again, assuming this is based on intelligence and not just supposition, it must be alarming. The difference in taxation rates and labour laws, though, seem likely to be major barriers.
It does piss me off a tad, that the only thing that makes the UK attractive is lack of worker protection and low taxation (ie lack of social conscience); especially given these seem the most likely "rights" and "duties" to be eroded post Brexit.

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21715720-paris-frankfurt-and-dublin-all-hope-pick-up-some-post-brexit-business-firms-consider-upping?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/leaveorremainfirmsconsideruppingsticksfrombrexitboundbritainasforeigncapitalsmountacharmoffensive


All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. I always forget to put those smiley things...

[tomtom]

I went and had a look at the Labour Party website.
http://www.labour.org.uk
It isn't very clear.
....It looks a bit of a shambles to me.

Yup - my membership is going to be cancelled soon...

[seankenny]

I went and had a look at the Labour Party website.
http://www.labour.org.uk
It isn't very clear.
....It looks a bit of a shambles to me.

Yup - my membership is going to be cancelled soon...

I'm hanging on in there for the time being but increasingly frustrated. I actually called them to say I'm thinking of leaving to try and get the message across. Not one but two officials slammed the phone down on me (after getting their facts wrong and saying I didn't make sense).

Utterly unprofessional.

[Will Hunt]

I think we joined at the same time and for the same reason, TT.
It's clear to me that that battle has been lost but I'm reticent about cancelling my membership. a) because I doubt they let you back in once you've left; b) because I don't really want to give up hope that the Labour party can be the party of opposition.

I used to look at the news years ago and get cross but the events of the past year are on a new level. Alternative Facts reigning on both sides of the Atlantic. The Americans have elected a bona fide dictator who has already started to strip away the civil liberties of the poor foolish people who trusted him. The far right are on a roll; what can we do about it?

[i.munro]

The far right are on a roll; what can we do about it?

If you find out please let me know!

[slackline]

The government revealed on Thursday that Brexit would involve the UK leaving Euratom, which promotes research into nuclear power and uniform safety standards.

EDF, which is building two new reactors at Hinkley in Somerset and hopes to build other nuclear plants, has told MPs that “ideally” the UK would stay in the treaty, as it provides a framework for complying with international standards for handling nuclear material.

Without mentioning Hinkley, the French state-owned company has also warned that restrictions on movement of people because of Brexit could delay delivery of new energy infrastructure.

Antony Froggatt, a research fellow at the Chatham House thinktank, said: “Outside of Euratom and the single market, the movement of nuclear fuel, equipment and trained staff will be more complicated.”

 

[seankenny]

One wonders if "liberal Leavers" saw this one coming. Stay classy, Britain.

"The logic of a hard Brexit is that our trading links with our biggest trading partner will diminish. The only question is by how much.

"That gap will be filled – at least initially – with grubby deals with the likes of Turkey and the Gulf States. We’ll do those deals both because we need the markets and because domestic politics will need quick wins. And those are the quickest “wins” we’ll be able to pick up. The image of the “free trading, buccaneering global Britain” will give away to a reality of Britain as the despot’s friend."

https://medium.com/@DuncanWeldon/global-britain-the-despots-friend-73c2c8d4f17a#.7o4hy47z0

[mrjonathanr]

Beggars can't be choosers, that cliché so obviously applies now - and was always going to. It's not like we took a principled stand re Saudi when fully a part of the EU did we?

[jfdm]

Beggars can't be choosers, that cliché so obviously applies now - and was always going to. It's not like we took a principled stand re Saudi when fully a part of the EU did we?

Yes just look at Theresa M cozying up to Turkish PM
UKIP/Cons were hot under the collar that Turkey would join EU.
Thinking there would be a great rush of migration to U.K.
Now happy enough to accept Turkish money but not workers.
The Uk could not trade with other countries while in eu, is an imaginary Brexit thinking.
I seem to remember BAE defence agreements with unsavoury gov around world, so obviously we couldn't do deals whilst part of EU.
For me this all harks back to Thatcher and Pinochet.
Will prop up dictators if the money's right, all very sad really.

[Johnny Brown]

Shit American food coming our way: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/britain-us-trade-deal-gm-food-eu-rules?CMP=share_btn_tw

Stay classy NFU.

[jfdm]

Breakdown of BMW Group's worldwide automobile sales in FY 2015, by region
US 20.6%
China 18.1%
Germany 12.7%
UK 10.3%
France 3.5%
Italy 3.2%
Japan 3.1%
Other 28%

Was having a think about this as I drove past petrol station yesterday.
Since Christmas petrol seems to have gone up quite a bit maybe 20p.
So yes at the moment for BMW the U.K. is a player.
But if prices go up by 20% because of fall in £ these cars will become prohibitively expensive. This is without taking into consideration any traiffs that might be added on in the future, or if things get even worse for the £? So I would expect UK BMW sale share over time to fall. BMW will will plug gaps with emerging markets e.g. India, Russia, other countries not on the list.
In the future I can see myself riding round in a horse and cart post Brexit.