[petejh]

You're saying King's incompetency means we shouldn't trust Carney now?

No! This is torturous.

I'm simply making the subtle point, so subtle that it seems to fly over your head, that your use of 'The Governor of the Bank of England' as if the title in itself makes your argument totally sound, is bullshit. You should have said 'I'd take Mark Carney's opinion over yours' or 'I'd take financial expert Y's opinion over yours'.
Just saying G of the BoE (as in the institution) isn't nailing your argument, because as I've just pointed out the previous Governor of the BoE holds views completely at odds with your own, and the next one may also. So whatever views a GofBoE holds, they are clearly open to question - not by me, but evidently by other 'experts'^TM.

Edit - and JB, what do you actually know about, in your words, 'the currency issues' beyond the £ being at a lower level than it has been for a long time (some people give this in itself as 'a terrible thing' and I get the impression they see it as a league table which if you go down it's not good). I mean, what do you actually know a weaker pound will mean for you going forward? - more expensive hols, more expensive imports, sure, but you're talking about the UK economy here. For e.g. are you aware of another widely held view among financial types that the £ has been too high for too long and a re-balancing is probably a healthy thing in the long term? I don't claim to know much myself about how currency Xchange-rates will effect things , but I've read around different views on it somewhat.

[seankenny]

I'm simply making the subtle point, so subtle that it seems to fly over your head, that your use of 'The Governor of the Bank of England' as if the title in itself makes your argument totally sound, is bullshit. You should have said 'I'd take Mark Carney's opinion over yours' or 'I'd take financial expert Y's opinion over yours'.

This is of course completely true.

It also rather misses the point.

[Offwidth]

It's the ftse all-share Offwidth. Not the 100.  FFS?! I typed it clearly enough. A.l.l.-s.h.a.r.e.

See what narrative you can think up that would explain how the positive performance of the all-share - and the 250 overall - isn't indicative of the UK economy. I'm sure you can, you're smart enough to justify any position you wish.

If he meant 'post-vote' then you are seriously trying to tell me that that large spike up on the day of the 23rd leading up to the vote is meant to represent anything meaningful other than trader's buying ahead of a presumed 'yes'? The ftse 250 today is at the same level it was on the Monday of the week of the vote, and higher than one month ago today. Just look at the chart. The consensus prognosis on here of short-term market collapse in the event of a 'leave' vote was simply incorrect panicky bed-wetting. Long-term, who knows. I'm optimistic you're not.

[Johnny Brown]

I'm simply making the subtle point, so subtle that it seems to fly over your head, that your use of 'The Governor of the Bank of England' as if the title in itself makes your argument totally sound, is bullshit. You should have said 'I'd take Mark Carney's opinion over yours' or 'I'd take financial expert Y's opinion over yours'.

Well, it's 'tortuous' and 'flying over my head' because that implication is in your head not mine.

I said Governor not Mark Carney because it is as Governor that he will be the one deciding whether to pump billions into the economy. Past governors, other 'experts' and other Mark Carneys will not.

And the original point was I'd take his opinion over yours. Even if Mervyn was still in that'd remain true. I'm not after confirmation bias, I'm after opinion from people who are directly involved. So in my book Carney>King>Harrison, based mainly on directness of involvement, but also on what I can garner about their economic reputations. Whereas, were the subject north wales limestone, you'd be top dog. Ok?

On the £, I run a business partly based on imports from France. I'm also involved with a big environmental scheme which has just has a massive sum wiped off the budget. I enjoy going abroad. I'm aware we export less than we import. And, yes, I'm aware some experts (your caveats on economic experts' opinions above notwithstanding) think it was over valued. But it did need something to trigger that devaluing, whether latent or not. It does seem to be a broader monitor of the value of brand Uk than the stock markets.

[jfdm]

Are people blaming Mervyn King for the financial crisis now? This is liquid gold! I actually liked him when he played darts.

I thought it was common knowledge that it was Flash Gordon and labour that caused the global financial meltdown.
Not the dart player.

[Offwidth]

It's the ftse all-share Offwidth. Not the 100.  FFS?! I typed it clearly enough. A.l.l.-s.h.a.r.e.

See what narrative you can think up that would explain how the positive performance of the all-share - and the 250 overall - isn't indicative of the UK economy. I'm sure you can, you're smart enough to justify any position you wish.

If he meant 'post-vote' then you are seriously trying to tell me that that large spike up on the day of the 23rd leading up to the vote is meant to represent anything meaningful other than trader's buying ahead of a presumed 'yes'? The ftse 250 today is at the same level it was on the Monday of the week of the vote, and higher than one month ago today. Just look at the chart. The consensus prognosis on here of short-term market collapse in the event of a 'leave' vote was simply incorrect panicky bed-wetting. Long-term, who knows.

I'm optimistic you're not.

The 100 dominates the all share index hence the % from my wikipedia quote... nothing clever just simple research. The narrative is also simple and research based: the pound has devalued and those indices are quoted in pounds and they are dominated by assets outside the UK.

I agree the choice of start point is very debatable but it was a reasonable attempt to measure an effect and more so than your skyrocket growth  (as an example the FTSE all share has been depressed or pretty static since 2008, not even taking inflation into account, so most growth has to be dividend based; assuming your fund includes this).

I'm actually still optimistic (just a bit less than before), I'm just not basing this on bollocks. My optimism is based on research led growth that was un(der)predicted time and time again... the transistor, the chip, the internet etc

[petejh]

Not really OK JB    Because this is UKB not the BofE or Westminister and if your view is that no-one's opinions on here count much compared to the opinions of your chosen head of a national institution - a pretty tough act to follow - then until Shark persuades Carney to join it leaves the forum a little thin on content. You may as well leave this thread now and just watch the news.

It also leaves your argument open to this very obvious conclusion - using your own line of reasoning you yourself would rather take King's opinion over your own: because he's a financial expert and you're not - which is the logic you just used on me.

But that isn't very useful except for point-scoring.

[petejh]

I'm actually still optimistic (just a bit less than before), I'm just not basing this on bollocks. My optimism is based on research led growth that was un(der)predicted time and time again... the transistor, the chip, the internet etc

Hmm.. what makes you conclude that I'm not optimistic for similar reasons - just that I haven't said those specific things?

[Oldmanmatt]

I said are people blaming Mervyn King for the financial crisis now. Omm said of course dense don't you? That's not really got any grey areas in there, in whole or in part.

Sorry.
Sarcasm missed target there.


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[Oldmanmatt]

I took that as a response to your gag about the darts player. So do you think he played a part or was just a victim of circumstance?

It was.

I think he forgot he made the joke.

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[petejh]

On the £, I run a business partly based on imports from France. I'm also involved with a big environmental scheme which has just has a massive sum wiped off the budget. I enjoy going abroad. I'm aware we export less than we import. And, yes, I'm aware some experts (your caveats on economic experts' opinions above notwithstanding) think it was over valued. But it did need something to trigger that devaluing, whether latent or not. It does seem to be a broader monitor of the value of brand Uk than the stock markets.

Right, as you know I'm aware of your French imports. End of the day for you as a distributor you'll end up distributing what companies want to purchase. So hear me out - a lower pound is very good news for UK companies who compete against foreign companies in our line of business. That's healthy for the ISCs, HeightTecs, DMMs etc. etc. All of a sudden if ISC D4's become cheaper to purchase than Petzl IDs then - as a person responsible for a large budget and deciding which items of equipment to purchase - I know whose descender we'll be ordering from you. Caernarfon-based ISC at the expense of Grenoble-based Petzl. More growth for Welsh ISC. More local jobs. (and the D4 is good, typical that a UK company struggles against cheaper foreign imports, not better quality foreign imports).
Same goes for other lines of business where small innovative UK companies operate. And the export market opens up for these small companies too - the US and beyond. The market for equipment manufacturers in the US is massive (and note: somehow UK companies such as ISC manage to successfully produce equipment rated for the NFPA regs without us being a party to them).
And you're trying to make a case that a lower pound is a bad thing - it might be, but it isn't necessarily. I don't think you've thought it through enough in our specific industry.

[tomtom]

Pete - I've noticed your posts seem to focus on scoring points/trying to prove remainders wrong. Would it be possible to focus more on the positives you see coming down the road from Brexit?

I found sharks Siemens post interesting on that front (whether or not it's true it's a different perspective. Plus I've managed to put shark and siemen next to each other and not make a gag... Or gag reflex..)

[Johnny Brown]

I have thought it through Pete, I'm just looking at the whole picture rather than picking up the odd positive scrap. Construction looks like it will slow down. We might pick up a few more trainees from overseas due to the weak £, but it's not likely to compensate form any general effect on the uk economy. When the oil price bottomed out in Feb it had a surprisingly direct effect on business.

On kit, yes we supply uk made as well. Ropes and bags here sell well, hardware less so. ASAPs/ Harnesses not at all. There are already cheaper uk-made harnesses available, but you aren't ordering them are you? Because they're shit. I'd love to think leaving Europe will suddenly make us great at making harnesses again, but it's not likely in the short term. And I still think losing input to the EN standards is a big negative. I don't hear much good about NFPA standards from those involved in them. Sure, manufacturers will make gear to meet them, it doesn't make it preferable. To choose to lose influence is retarded IMO.

[a dense loner]

Johnny when i asked you at your centre a while ago face to face if the massive downturn in the North Sea and beyond had any effect on your numbers, you said no you don't get that much custom from oil and gas anyway. So how has this affected you massively?

Omm you've had to explain a few times on here recently when you was being sarcastic. Surely this shows you something? I wasn't being sarcastic.

[Oldmanmatt]

Johnny when i asked you at your centre a while ago face to face if the massive downturn in the North Sea and beyond had any effect on your numbers, you said no you don't get that much custom from oil and gas anyway. So how has this affected you massively?

Omm you've had to explain a few times on here recently when you was being sarcastic. Surely this shows you something? I wasn't being sarcastic.

Only to you Dense old boy, only to you.

Edit.
Damn forgot emoji again! [emoji13]
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[Offwidth]

I'm actually still optimistic (just a bit less than before), I'm just not basing this on bollocks. My optimism is based on research led growth that was un(der)predicted time and time again... the transistor, the chip, the internet etc

Hmm.. what makes you conclude that I'm not optimistic for similar reasons - just that I haven't said those specific things?

Why would I have tried to guess your other sources of optimism?

Research led growth will happen slower if research support drops and researcher movement slows. It is an area where we are massive net gainers from the EU. I'd be delighted if a conservative government suddenly became serious about much more state control of investment for growth but it doesn't fit their history nor ideals.

[Johnny Brown]

Johnny when i asked you at your centre a while ago face to face if the massive downturn in the North Sea and beyond had any effect on your numbers, you said no you don't get that much custom from oil and gas anyway. So how has this affected you massively?

It hadn't affected us when I last saw you. Then it did, much more than we'd expected, very quiet for a few months. It was picking up again, but since brexit that seems to be slowing. Early days though.

[Oldmanmatt]

I'm actually still optimistic (just a bit less than before), I'm just not basing this on bollocks. My optimism is based on research led growth that was un(der)predicted time and time again... the transistor, the chip, the internet etc

Hmm.. what makes you conclude that I'm not optimistic for similar reasons - just that I haven't said those specific things?

Why would I have tried to guess your other sources of optimism?

Research led growth will happen slower if research support drops and researcher movement slows. It is an area where we are massive net gainers from the EU. I'd be delighted if a conservative government suddenly became serious about much more state control of investment for growth but it doesn't fit their history nor ideals.

Still waiting for Systemaian to chime in, since this is his field. Uniting researchers with industry and EU money. We had a beer the week before the referendum and there was already a draw back in funding/collaboration then. In our conversations since, he's been a tad negative (it's possible he's avoiding this conversation because he might find it hard to be diplomatic, he often does).

When I was working with CMC on the low energy electric propulsion/stabilisers/thrusters; it was an EU brokered collaboration between CMC, Mitsubishi and the Uni's in Genova and Milano. Much of my consulting fees cane out of the EU pot...


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[Johnny Brown]

Timely piece on the value of sterling, for those of us who haven't heard enough from experts:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sterlings-slide-is-not-good-news-despite-what-some-will-tell-you-qqhz3bjzm?shareToken=85037b35d8d690a99edf10e7ddeecf26

In summary:

You don’t make British people better off by getting them to work hard to make stuff for others to enjoy on the cheap, while themselves paying more for things produced overseas. You do it by ensuring, through effective policies on education and skills and competition and infrastructure and trade, that British workers produce more in each hour they work so that the actual value of what they produce is higher, so they can earn more and consume more

[Offwidth]

Interesting latest take by (the euro-sceptic) Mobiot

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/13/billionaires-bought-brexit-controlling-britains-political-system.


And the start of problems on EU collaborative research:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/uk-scientists-dropped-from-eu-projects-because-of-post-brexit-funding-fears

[petejh]

Timely piece on the value of sterling, for those of us who haven't heard enough from experts:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sterlings-slide-is-not-good-news-despite-what-some-will-tell-you-qqhz3bjzm?shareToken=85037b35d8d690a99edf10e7ddeecf26

In summary:

You don’t make British people better off by getting them to work hard to make stuff for others to enjoy on the cheap, while themselves paying more for things produced overseas. You do it by ensuring, through effective policies on education and skills and competition and infrastructure and trade, that British workers produce more in each hour they work so that the actual value of what they produce is higher, so they can earn more and consume more

That sounds great, so why hasn't the UK done it? How does high productivity relate to our membership or not of the EU, and how does Brexit damage it? Because I'm struggling to relate the above with the UKs relatively shite productivity during its decades of membership of the EU, going by the official ONS statistics:

Source
Britain’s poor productivity record has been highlighted by government figures showing the biggest gap with other leading western economies since modern records began in the early 1990s.

Output per hour worked in the UK was 18 percentage points below the average for the remaining six members of the G7 group of industrial nations in 2014, the Office for National Statistics said.

The gap – up one percentage point on the previous year – was the widest since 1991 and showed a particularly marked deterioration since the onset of the financial crisis and deep recession of 2007-09. The shortfall was slightly smaller than the 20-point gap reported in the ONS’s preliminary estimates released in September 2015.

In the first half of the 2000s, the UK narrowed its productivity gap with the rest of the G7 to just 4 percentage points but the period since has seen that trend go into reverse.

The ONS’s final international estimates of productivity in 2014 found that output per hour in the UK was now 36 percentage points behind that in Germany - the biggest gap ever recorded with a fellow G7 country and up two points on 2013.


You seem doing what a lot of people against brexit do - Grass 'was' greener. In this case claiming leaving he EU will be bad for productivity, when in actual fact productivity is nothing to be proud about at the moment, while members of the EU.

[Oldmanmatt]

So, what your saying is, we're not ready for Brexit?


[emoji16][emoji12]JK.


All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. Looking at you, here, Dense. 

[Johnny Brown]

The ONS’s final international estimates of productivity in 2014 found that output per hour in the UK was now 36 percentage points behind that in Germany - the biggest gap ever recorded with a fellow G7 country and up two points on 2013.

You do know Germany are in the EU too Pete? As were we in the first half of the 2000s where we narrowed the gap. So what's the argument for leaving again? It's just worth a try, bit of a change? Surely it might make more sense to look at Germany and try to work out where we're going wrong?

You seem doing what a lot of people against brexit do - Grass 'was' greener.

Oh the irony! A huge part of the Brexit vote support was due to harking back to a 'better' past and 'making Britain great again'. I don't see that, nor do I think we were doing great until the 23rd. I think we've been failing to invest in the future of Britain for much of my lifetime, and the chickens are coming home to roost. The EU has been a responsible for significant investment in infrastructure outside London which I doubt would have happened otherwise. I expect productivity will decline even further if we leave the EU.

[petejh]

This is too easy.
Become like Germany? You mean, become one of the world's largest exporters?

In 2014 Germany exported $1.41T, making it the 3rd largest exporter in the world. Imports. In 2014 Germany imported $1.13T, making it the 3rd largest importer in the world. Trade Balance. As of 2014 Germany had a positive trade balance of $271B in net exports.

Well yes that would be a very positive development in my view.

The UK hasn't been that sort of export economy for decades and before the 23rd there wasn't anything to suggest any change from the status quo. Now for the first time in a long time an opportunity has arisen for UK exporters to thrive due to sterling's drop. That the UK today isn't full of manufacturing exporters able to take immediate advantage is a shame, but not set in stone for evermore - the economy is dynamic and people will adapt to make the most of the circumstances.

[tregiffian]

There are innovative start-ups on Industrial Estates all over everywhere.