[petejh]

Of course the accuracy of your analogy depends on whether or not you believe the UK economy to be suffering a heart attack Matt. Panicky hyperbolic comparisons with cardiac arrests seems a bit short-sighted and slightly neurotic, which continues your form so far on this thread.

I'm more of a view that it's just a(nother) passing virus, and so far not a particularly nasty one. Of course I could be proved totally wrong.


Slackers - bit of a blinkered negative viewpoint, unusual from you. My UK investment in the ftse all-share tracker has never been higher than of today. It isn't just foreign shares that are up, UK market trackers are too.
Teaboy - it's just plain incorrect and misleading to say 'the ftse250 is down'. Down on what timescale? It's up on the day, it's up on the week, it's higher than a month ago to the day (pre-brexit), it's barely lower than 3 months ago to the day (pre-brexit), it's lower than 1 year ago to the day, and it's much higher than 5 years ago to the day. Which part of that 5 year chart (if you care to google it) suggests 'the signs are all pointing one way', unless you meant upwards? 

But in the spirit of this thread the economy and the whole country is fucked   

[Johnny Brown]

depends on whether or not you believe the UK economy to be suffering a heart attack

Well I'll take the governor of the Bank of England's opinion over yours Pete. Clearly he doesn't take the kind of recent action over blips.

[Oldmanmatt]

Honestly Pete, I feel compelled to counter your relentless optimism, rather than hold deep feelings of gloom myself.
Your prognostications rely heavily on "It'll be alright in the end, chin up" and little on expert opinion, which is far more "well, it's not great is it" in nature.

I had a friend tell me that Siemens had reversed their decision to scale back investment and that that "was all back on track".
Then I read their announcement. They assured production for the UK domestic market would continue, but also stated that they were reviewing their long term export production and location would depend on trade deals reached.
You reckon they'll hang around 5-10 years on that? On the off chance that the UK will have a better US/China et al deal than the EU does now?

Why would any major manufacturer (read employer) do that?


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[Offwidth]

"My UK investment in the ftse all-share tracker has never been higher than of today. It isn't just foreign shares that are up, UK market trackers are too. "
Teaboy - it's just plain incorrect and misleading to say 'the ftse250 is down'. Down on what timescale?

According to wikipedia: "FTSE 100 companies represent about 81% of the entire market capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange.......A large slice of these are international companies, however, so the index's movements are a fairly weak indicator of how the UK economy is faring."... all LSE stocks are quoted in pounds.

On the second point it was pretty obvious he meant post vote.

On the subject of hyperbole, your skyrockets must be really shit if they don't qualify.

[petejh]

It's the ftse all-share Offwidth. Not the 100.  FFS?! I typed it clearly enough. A.l.l.-s.h.a.r.e.

See what narrative you can think up that would explain how the positive performance of the all-share - and the 250 overall - isn't indicative of the UK economy. I'm sure you can, you're smart enough to justify any position you wish.

If he meant 'post-vote' then you are seriously trying to tell me that that large spike up on the day of the 23rd leading up to the vote is meant to represent anything meaningful other than trader's buying ahead of a presumed 'yes'? The ftse 250 today is at the same level it was on the Monday of the week of the vote, and higher than one month ago today. Just look at the chart. The consensus prognosis on here of short-term market collapse in the event of a 'leave' vote was simply incorrect panicky bed-wetting. Long-term, who knows. I'm optimistic you're not.

[shark]

I had a friend tell me that Siemens had reversed their decision to scale back investment and that that "was all back on track".
Then I read their announcement. They assured production for the UK domestic market would continue, but also stated that they were reviewing their long term export production and location would depend on trade deals reached.
You reckon they'll hang around 5-10 years on that? On the off chance that the UK will have a better US/China et al deal than the EU does now?

Why would any major manufacturer (read employer) do that?

Just off the top of my head:

Because it may be cheaper here due to weakness of sterling
Because the government will be at greater liberty  to offer tax inducements
Because the government will be at greater liberty to offer financial inducements
Our employment laws are less vigorous / more lax (depending on your bias)
Because we have stable govertnment and legal system
There is negligible corruption
We have reasonably educated workforce
We have a track record of successful long term inward investment (Toyota, Nissan etc)
We speak the world business language

Im sure I could add a few more if I put my mind to it

[shark]

I'm failing to see where the upside of Brexit it is and if you say it's early days I'd agree but the signs are all pointing one way.

Is it possible you subconsciously want things to fail to fully justify your in vote 

[a dense loner]

I don't have to be eloquent slackers, couldn't spell it if I wanted to. If someone has no idea what I mean because I don't put "gadzooks" or "Linux" at the beginning of a sentence then I have no interest if they understand my post or not. It was quite obvious.

[Fultonius]

It's the ftse all-share Offwidth. Not the 100.  FFS?! I typed it clearly enough. A.l.l.-s.h.a.r.e.

See what narrative you can think up that would explain how the positive performance of the all-share - and the 250 overall - isn't indicative of the UK economy. I'm sure you can, you're smart enough to justify any position you wish.

If he meant 'post-vote' then you are seriously trying to tell me that that large spike up on the day of the 23rd leading up to the vote is meant to represent anything meaningful other than trader's buying ahead of a presumed 'yes'? The ftse 250 today is at the same level it was on the Monday of the week of the vote, and higher than one month ago today. Just look at the chart. The consensus prognosis on here of short-term market collapse in the event of a 'leave' vote was simply incorrect panicky bed-wetting. Long-term, who knows. I'm optimistic you're not.

OK, ignoring my previous jibe at the QE money going to the wealthy. I agree that the FTSE 250 isn't looking so bad; however, the QE is what's shored it up. Imagine where it would be:

a) without QE
or
b) with QE and no brexit! 

QE , from my limited understanding (i.e. recent googling) seems to have quite a correlation with boosting share price. Generally, improving share prices benefit those with capital to invest and, maybe, GDP....  They really don't affect the average worker very much though, unlike consumer prices which are predicted to go up with the weak pound.

[Oldmanmatt]

I had a friend tell me that Siemens had reversed their decision to scale back investment and that that "was all back on track".
Then I read their announcement. They assured production for the UK domestic market would continue, but also stated that they were reviewing their long term export production and location would depend on trade deals reached.
You reckon they'll hang around 5-10 years on that? On the off chance that the UK will have a better US/China et al deal than the EU does now?

Why would any major manufacturer (read employer) do that?

Just off the top of my head:

Because it may be cheaper here due to weakness of sterling
Because the government will be at greater liberty  to offer tax inducements
Because the government will be at greater liberty to offer financial inducements
Our employment laws are less vigorous / more lax (depending on your bias)
Because we have stable govertnment and legal system
There is negligible corruption
We have reasonably educated workforce
We have a track record of successful long term inward investment (Toyota, Nissan etc)
We speak the world business language

Im sure I could add a few more if I put my mind to it

All true.

However (sorry[emoji3]), we are looking at some extended period of uncertainty and that is the biggest hurdle. We, even with substantial erosion of work rights; are unlikely to be able to compete with (say) China in any meaningful manufacturing industry and their education/skill level is rapidly advancing. So there the question  is who will be where in 5-10 years. If you are looking to invest in something that might take 2+ years to build/establish, why risk an uncertain environment?
Corruption comes in many forms and is usually manageable in an established manufacturing base.
Languages can be learned and are. The Eastern and African markets look to be more expansionist, long term, than the West.

In fact that argument, which I hope is true and persuasive, sounds a lot like the ones I heard British Expats expound in the early 00's across the middle east; shortly before they were replaced by Poles/Chinese/Well educated Indians etc etc... 


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[Fultonius]

Come on Shark....really....

Just off the top of my head:

Because it may be cheaper here due to weakness of sterling What about most of the component parts, which need purchased from overseas - I don't see many iron ore mines in the UK Long term, it is arguable whether a weak currency really does much for exports.
Because the government will be at greater liberty  to offer tax inducements Great UK Tax Haven .PLC that'll help pay for public services
Because the government will be at greater liberty to offer financial inducements
Our employment laws are less vigorous / more lax (depending on your bias) Grind that workforce down...I'm sure they can work harder, long and for less than the Chinese...
Because we have stable govertnment and legal system
There is negligible corruption Guffaw!
We have reasonably educated workforce
We have a track record of successful long term inward investment (Toyota, Nissan etc)
We speak the world business language

Im sure I could add a few more if I put my mind to it

[a dense loner]

ffs

[shark]

Come on Shark....really....

Answering your two more sensible points that you put in bold type - yes raw material costs have an effect but can be less direct than you seem to assume - inter company transfer pricing with big manufacturing companies can do strange and wonderful to purchase costs especially if you send "semi-finished" components rather than raw materials and secondly Corporation Tax is only one tax - the benefits of having the company office ior factory is that it adds to the economy generating other tax receipts from employees and local suppliers and of course mitigating unemployment and other welfare costs to the State.     

[petejh]

depends on whether or not you believe the UK economy to be suffering a heart attack

Well I'll take the governor of the Bank of England's opinion over yours Pete. Clearly he doesn't take the kind of recent action over blips.

Quite right, you should. And in this spirit will you also take heed of the words of the previous governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, regarding the potential fall-out from brexit? I think all the naysayers on here should read his recent interviews from 2016 if you're going to use 'the Bank of England' as such a cornerstone of your opinions surrounding brexit. Or is it only confirmation bias you were after?

[Johnny Brown]

My impression of them both is that King is a long time euro sceptic, whilst Carney appears fairly independent. Carney was credited as piloting Canada through the 2008 financial crisis to a better position than either the US or Europe by as early as 2009, making him 'most trusted Canadian 2011'. Whereas King was actually implicated as part of the root causes of the crash. But yeah Pete, let's listen to King.

[petejh]

 

Whereas King was actually implicated as part of the root causes of the crash. But yeah Pete, let's listen to King.

  Yep, because that's exactly what I meant isn't it. I mean I distinctly remember saying 'let's listen to King and not to Carney'.

When you used 'The Governor of The Bank of England' as an institution that has unquestionable authority to help prove whatever your point was, you of course didn't really mean 'The Governor of the Bank of England is an institution with unquestionable authority on this issue' - you just meant 'the current governor, who said something that chimes with my view of the situation, is unquestionable on this issue. Previous Governors who said things that don't align with my view, nah they don't count'. Hilarious.

[Johnny Brown]

You're saying King's incompetency means we shouldn't trust Carney now? But King agrees with you remember. And Carney didn't 'say something that chimes with my view', he said he would pump £250 billion into the economy (which rallied the markets but dropped the pound further, keep ignoring the currency issue though in your upbeat reading please). I'd really rather he agreed with you that this was all short term volatility.

[seankenny]

Whereas King was actually implicated as part of the root causes of the crash. But yeah Pete, let's listen to King.

  Yep, because that's exactly what I meant isn't it. I mean I distinctly remember saying 'let's listen to King and not to Carney'.

When you used 'The Governor of The Bank of England' as an institution that has unquestionable authority to help prove whatever your point was, you of course didn't really mean 'The Governor of the Bank of England is an institution with unquestionable authority on this issue' - you just meant 'the current governor, who said something that chimes with my view of the situation, is unquestionable on this issue. Previous Governors who said things that don't align with my view, nah they don't count'. Hilarious.

Mervyn King's forecasting ability was a question the FT looked into a few months ago.
Link is here:
https://next.ft.com/content/70d2c34a-ded9-11e5-b7fd-0dfe89910bd6

But if you can't get past the paywall, the body of the article is below:



1. 2004: the “not-so-bad” decade ahead
Having coined the phrase in 2003 that the previous decade had been “nice” — standing for non-inflationary, consistently expansionary — Lord King said in 2004 that the coming decade would be “not-so-bad”, which he defined as not of the same order but also desirable. Britain’s economy had a terrible decade with volatile inflation and the largest recession for 80 years. Miss

2. Financial stability risk

The May 2007 BoE annual report, endorsed by Lord King, then the Bank’s governor, said financial stability risks “appeared to be low”. It was almost the eve of the financial crisis. Miss

3. Inflation control prevents crises

In August 2007, after the European Central Bank had already intervened to stabilise financial markets, Lord King espoused the view that controlling inflation would prevent a crisis in the UK. “The best contribution that central banks can make to ensuring the lack of disruption in international financial markets is to pursue domestic monetary stability in a predictable and sensible way,” he said, days before the financial markets blew up. Miss

4. Central banks can “sow the seeds” of financial crises

At the height of secret negotiations with the failing Northern Rock in 2007, Lord King wrote a public letter saying that the central banks’ effort to paper over the cracks in the financial system “encourages excessive risk-taking, and sows the seeds of a future financial crisis”. He was right about that, although previous complacency also played a part. Hit

5. Liquidity support would end the financial crisis

In April 2008, Lord King claimed ownership of the government’s “special liquidity scheme” for banks. “Now is the time to take the liquidity issue off the table in a decisive way,” Lord King said — only a few months before British banks failed, partly as a result of a lack of liquidity. Miss

6. Productivity predictions

Right from the start of the financial crisis, Lord King believed there was no reason for Britain's productivity to have been damaged. It would recover to the previous trend, he repeatedly and wrongly predicted.

In 2011, for example, he said: “I don’t see any reason in principle why this crisis should actually destroy the productive potential of which the economy is capable of operating.” Feeble productivity growth has been the Achilles heel of the UK economy since 2008 and shows no sign of recovering the potential lost in the crisis. Miss

7. Eurozone cohesion

Lord King had part of his conversations with Louis Susman, the US ambassador to the UK, revealed in the WikiLeaks revelations. In February 2010 he told the ambassador that the eurozone crisis would force “greater political cohesion” in continental Europe and this would compel Britain “to demonstrate that it has something meaningful to say and to be constructively engaged in the EU”. Britain is today debating whether to leave the EU. Miss

8. Predicting exchange rates 1

In 2004, Lord King said he had “no idea” where sterling was headed. “I have no intention of ever starting to forecast exchange rates. That’s a mug's game.” Although his sentiment was a hit, only three years later Lord King was predicting that sterling would stay strong. Miss

9. Predicting exchange rates 2

In November 2007, he lauded the stability and strength of sterling, saying the UK currency “has been remarkably stable. So whoever it is, people who won’t get out of bed to earn dollars, sterling’s a pretty good currency to look at”. This came a few days before sterling began its 25 per cent slide, proving his earlier comments that predicting currencies was a mug’s game. Miss

10. Pride comes before a fall.

In the same “not-so-bad” speech of 2004, Lord King warned of the dangers of hubris. He said that “starting from the Garden of Eden, there can be only a fall from grace”. He was entirely right about his own reputation as a forecaster. Hit

[a dense loner]

Are people blaming Mervyn King for the financial crisis now? This is liquid gold! I actually liked him when he played darts.

[rich d]

Are people blaming Mervyn King for the financial crisis now? This is liquid gold! I actually liked him when he played darts.

Can't work out whether he's Dense's or Lager's brother

[Oldmanmatt]

Are people blaming Mervyn King for the financial crisis now? This is liquid gold! I actually liked him when he played darts.

Of course Dense.

Don't you?


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[a dense loner]

No I don't I'm not a moron who's just stepped off the moon! All the banks were fucked, the markets were fucked, Lehman brothers fucked completely, states fucked, Asia fucked. To blame all that on the governor of the Bank of England is something that a knob jockey would do but only with the benefit of hindsight and a fantastic imagination!

Do you?

[Johnny Brown]

No one has 'blamed all that' on him. I just said he was implicated as part of the problem. Which he was. A PART. Not the sole root cause, but played a part.

[a dense loner]

I said are people blaming Mervyn King for the financial crisis now. Omm said of course dense don't you? That's not really got any grey areas in there, in whole or in part.

[Johnny Brown]

I took that as a response to your gag about the darts player. So do you think he played a part or was just a victim of circumstance?