[Oldmanmatt]

I like this version...

[Oldmanmatt]

How does this poll stack against peoples feelings for the mood north of the wall?

 https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/support-independence-50-cent-finds-ipsos-mori

[Fultonius]

Out of my facebook group of friends I've already had 4 or 5 say they were no last time and are now on the fence/leaning yes.

I'm yes, unless the economics look farcically dire. Basically, the numbers need to stack up sans-oil. I think maybe EEA membership for a couple of years then re-application to the EU if it seems like a good idea - it's seems as if we'll be out of the EU to start with, as the noises from Brussels don't make it sound possible to stay in on our own.

Just being in the EEA might be quite good but I think it would mean we still aren't part of the research funding bodies?? which would be a blow.

I think May is handing it to us on a plate. I really can't see what platform a unionist campaign would start from, and who has any credibility to lead it. Everyone who was involved last time has fucked it big time with "better together" & "stay with the UK to stay in the EU". May is fully toxic. Corbyn is a joke (as much as I defended his position during the onslaught from the PLP...he has shown himself to be a fairly inept leader of the opposition I sad to say)...who's left? Kezia "I tried to join the SNP but they didn't want me" Dugdale and Ruth Davidson....good luck!

[mrjonathanr]

I really can't see what platform a unionist campaign would start from, and who has any credibility to lead it.

Cometh the hour, cometh the... Foreign Secretary, shirley?

[SA Chris]

I think Sturge has a right to feel pissed off, since the last referendum when all 3 then leaders made promises for more devolution to Scotland, they all started reneging on promises before the last vote was even counted. And now May is conceding precisely fuck all, and then acts outraged when this happens. I could have seen it coming in June last year.

I'm one of Fultonius's aforementioned FB friends on the fence. Interesting to see how this plays out.

[Johnny Brown]

The problem with both the last two referendums was the lack of knowledge on all sides about what might happen. The Scots will be going into this second referendum with eyes wide open. As it stands I'll be amazed if they choose to stay.

[GazM]

I'm also starting to sway.  Look higher up this thread and you'll see I was a firm NO in the 2014 referendum, but so much has changed since then. I generally try to remain skeptical of the arguments from all sides, but I find myself swearing at the radio more and more...

[i.munro]

What do people make of the timing?
It seems like an early date would improve the chances of a) remaining in the EU b) getting a share of all the businesses currently scampering out of the SE of England as fast as their legs will carry them (which is exactly what the Scottish economy needs).

OTOH major constitutional change on a narrow majority in a referendum is clearly a very bad idea & delaying hopefully reduces the chances of that.

[Teaboy]

What do people make of the timing?
It seems like an early date would improve the chances of a) remaining in the EU b) getting a share of all the businesses currently scampering out of the SE of England as fast as their legs will carry them (which is exactly what the Scottish economy needs).

If you were leaving the SE of England because of Brexit why would you relocate to Scotland?

[petejh]

I like this version...

Except it's bollocks. May doesn't have to convince people to be in favour of brexit because that vote's been had, the outcome was a majority in favour of brexit and the decision to leave has been made (the will of da peeple innit).

The Scottish indy ref 2 however hasn't yet happened, probably won't until after we've left the EU (if May gets her way) and all is to play for.

But I suppose if we were back to the time before the brexit referendum.. one way to phrase it which would have resonated with many of the unwashed, would have been something like:

It might be a hassle and a risk for those who don't want Indepenence, but the hegemony of Westminster Brussels needs to be challenged.

[Oldmanmatt]

Out of my facebook group of friends I've already had 4 or 5 say they were no last time and are now on the fence/leaning yes.

I'm yes, unless the economics look farcically dire. Basically, the numbers need to stack up sans-oil. I think maybe EEA membership for a couple of years then re-application to the EU if it seems like a good idea - it's seems as if we'll be out of the EU to start with, as the noises from Brussels don't make it sound possible to stay in on our own.

Just being in the EEA might be quite good but I think it would mean we still aren't part of the research funding bodies?? which would be a blow.

I think May is handing it to us on a plate. I really can't see what platform a unionist campaign would start from, and who has any credibility to lead it. Everyone who was involved last time has fucked it big time with "better together" & "stay with the UK to stay in the EU". May is fully toxic. Corbyn is a joke (as much as I defended his position during the onslaught from the PLP...he has shown himself to be a fairly inept leader of the opposition I sad to say)...who's left? Kezia "I tried to join the SNP but they didn't want me" Dugdale and Ruth Davidson....good luck!

Well, t's going to be hard to make a call on "the numbers"; at least this man thinks so.
But he's probably an expert or something worthless like that...

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/15/more-on-why-gers-might-properly-be-called-crap-data/

[i.munro]

If you were leaving the SE of England because of Brexit why would you relocate to Scotland?

If it was clear or even v.likely that Scotland was going to remain in the single market then it would seem an attractive alternative to e.g Dublin.

[Fultonius]

Yeah, the numbers game is going to be used, but probably quite meaningless. Brexit UK vs Indy Scotland. I'm pretty sure the unionists will be banging hard on that GERS drum/deficit figures, despite the fact it has been widely discredited by last, right, unionist and independence types. http://wingsoverscotland.com/gers-by-economists/

Sent from my E5823 using Tapatalk

[Oldmanmatt]

I like this version...

Except it's bollocks. May doesn't have to convince people to be in favour of brexit because that vote's been had, the outcome was a majority in favour of brexit and the decision to leave has been made (the will of da peeple innit).

The Scottish indy ref 2 however hasn't yet happened, probably won't until after we've left the EU (if May gets her way) and all is to play for.

But I suppose if we were back to the time before the brexit referendum.. one way to phrase it which would have resonated with many of the unwashed, would have been something like:

It might be a hassle and a risk for those who don't want Indepenence, but the hegemony of Westminster Brussels needs to be challenged.

Nah mate.

A huge number of people, very nearly half of the people around you everyday; think the whole thing is and was bollocks.
It also seems highly likely that your majority has eroded hugely from that first referendum.
It also looks increasingly like May and her ilk are intent on exploiting the situation to erode rights and push their rightwing, neoliberal agenda and not (surprise, surprise) fund the NHS.
In fact, you might find your "freedom" somewhat curtailed, if they have their way. The "Snoopers charter" has already done that (funny, certain "experts" were recently speculating that the charter would not have withstood a challenge at the European courts, but that challenge seems unlikely now; given the situation).


So.

Do you, Pete, support (or even recognise) their right to determine their own future?
If they vote for independence by a 2% majority (even if a huge number of those votes might have been cast by Non-Scottish EU citizens settled in Scotland and English people who just happen to live north of the border)?

I mean, how do we even know who's a Scot and who's not? My Grandmother was Scottish, for certain. My Mrs' Father is Scottish too.

Mind you, I've got a strong Italian ancestry too, including another Grandparent and Dutch Great-grandparents...

And my kids are half Romanian...


So, for me, personally; the whole thing is utter bollocks. It's unjustified Nationalist crap, nothing more.

Now, to me, it seems, if you want Indepenence because you think you are "special" or for "Tribal" reasons, then you are lumped in with the "Bollocks".
If, on the other hand, if the Scots (in this instance) wish to dissolve the Union expressly to avoid the Nationalistic crap of their Southern neighbours; all power to them.
You know, if they are looking to cooperate with the world and move humanity forward and not be dragged down by backward looking Luddites.


I think there will be huge amusement to be had from the break up of the Union and the diminishing of Britain. Massive sadness, of course and I will be suffering along with my countrymen but should the EU fall to this tidal wave of Nationalist crap, I'm confident you would be grinning from ear to ear too.

This is retreating into petty tribes. You still haven't explained how this is going to make for a better life for my kids?

Baring in mind, a Zombie apocalypse, a big sword and a strong arm; also provide many opportunities for social advancement (albeit with limited retirement comforts or medical care).

[tomtom]

:D the last paragraph

[SA Chris]

If you were leaving the SE of England because of Brexit why would you relocate to Scotland?

If it was clear or even v.likely that Scotland was going to remain in the single market then it would seem an attractive alternative to e.g Dublin.

I'm going to set up a business forming Scottish LLCs for British businesses to continue free trade with Europe. Going to rake it in

[petejh]

Nah mate.


It also seems highly likely that your majority has eroded hugely from that first referendum.

Care to share your source for this statement?

[petejh]

Do you, Pete, support (or even recognise) their right to determine their own future?

Wondered for a second if you were giving me the marriage vows there....

I do.

[petejh]

If, on the other hand, if the Scots (in this instance) wish to dissolve the Union expressly to avoid the Nationalistic crap of their Southern neighbours; all power to them.

If enough people in Scotland are more strongly wedded to the idea of ceding much of their countries power and decison-making authority to a centrally-governed European state than to the idea of ceding power to to another part of the UK government than yes, all power to them.

[petejh]

I think there will be huge amusement to be had from the break up of the Union and the diminishing of Britain. Massive sadness, of course and I will be suffering along with my countrymen but should the EU fall to this tidal wave of Nationalist crap, I'm confident you would be grinning from ear to ear too.

Confident of your belief no doubt. But misplaced.

[petejh]

You still haven't explained how this is going to make for a better life for my kids?

'Better' (than if we'd stayed in the EU) isn't the pre-requirement for making a rational decision - even if it might make it easier for you to make simplistic points on a climbing forum.
If difficult choices came with guarantees of one option leading to 'better' and one to 'worse', then life would be a simple tickbox exercise. 'Not any worse off (than if we'd stayed), with more responsibility for decision-making laying with the government we elect' would be my pre-requirement. And I'm confident that's turning out to be the outcome.

[Oldmanmatt]

You still haven't explained how this is going to make for a better life for my kids?

'Better' (than if we'd stayed in the EU) isn't the pre-requirement for making a rational decision - even if it might make it easier for you to make simplistic points on a climbing forum.
If difficult choices came with guarantees of one option leading to 'better' and one to 'worse', then life would be a simple tickbox exercise. 'Not any worse off (than if we'd stayed), with more responsibility for decision-making laying with the government we elect' would be my pre-requirement. And I'm confident that's turning out to be the outcome.

As opposed to the simplistic argument which are the best you have ever presented?

You know, the "Central European Bogeyman Dictator" (so much worse than our home grown version? (May)be) that you harp on about.
Google the latest polls on Brexit support yourself and while your at it look at:
A: how many people over 60 have died since the referendum.
B: how many people came of age since the referendum.
C: the demographic spread of voting during the referendum.

Then make a wild guess if anything has changed, or, more to the point; how much will change over the next couple of years. This statement applies to both referendums.
The point being, opinion is not fixed and nor should it be.

So, apart from refutation of my (clearly stated) opinion, with nowt more than your own opinion.

Why are we going to be better off?

I'm pretty sure I have only ever asked that question, from the start. Just that one.
So far the only answer given has been "Blah blah Bogeyman European Parliament, blah blah I'm British not European, and blah blah immigration".

Incidentally, British is not a Nationality.
Neither is European.
Those are geographic tags.
Being part of the EU doesn't make you European, though living in the British isles does.
Co-operating with neighbours to create community, makes the EU. We as a species recognise (in general) communities to be stronger than individuals.
How far should we take this Pete?

You live in Wales don't you? What if they move for independence?
Would you support that?
Is there a time limit, perhaps?
If you haven't been independent for 500 years or more you can't ask for it now?

If there's no time limit, let's take this shit show all the way! We need a referendum for Wessex to cede from England! Vive la Mercia! Bring back the Danelaw!

Yes, I'm being deliberately obtuse, exaggerating and building straw men. It's a humorous illustration, a cartoon, to indicate how ridiculous the whole thing is. Because, though straw it may be, the argument for each degree of split is identical. It merely becomes more patently ridiculous as you distil it.

Because the larger argument was straw to begin with.





Also, there's a multi-quote function.

[dave]

Actually British is a nationality. Check your passport.

[Oldmanmatt]

Actually British is a nationality. Check your passport.

Tell that to the Irish.

[dave]

Will do, since it's a fact.