[tomtom]

So,
Those living north of the border - is this going to happen? All the rumblings I hear on the news point towards a no to Scottish independence...

[Fultonius]

A dinnae hink so pal!

I'm a bit torn. I like being part of the UK, have a lot of English friends and don't feel any need to be separated.

However; your fvcking government is a shower of shites!  On both sides of the coin. The last lot were useless, this lot are useless and dangerous!

I'm not a big fan of Salmond, he's a bit smarmy, but he's a clever politician and seems to have the people's best interests at heart. (conversely, I think he panders to business people a bit too much) The SNP seem to have managed to prevent most of the wild fuckups that are going on in England just now: NHS privatisation, school curriculum, tuition fees etc.


But, my concern is, as we've seen from what's happened in Ireland (small country in the Euro) or Iceland (Small country with own currency) there is something to be said for the strength of the union. I'd be scared to join the Euro. I'd also be scared to keep the pound, but set our own taxes and interest rates etc. The Euro has shown that monetary union needs fiscal union. (Well, I think it has...I'm no economist)

I reckon what we need is all politicians who have not worked at least 5 years in a "proper job" (teaching, accountancy, engineering, stacking shelves, enforced labour, medicine etc. etc.) to be given the boot. Then current gravy train of Eton-Oxbridge (to do arts an humanities) bag carrying for a few years then given an easy seat is just a total farce.


Anyway - feel free to challenge any or all of that - I'm genuinely interested in this subject and want my mind expanded!

[Fiend]

         

[aLICErOBERTSfANkLUB]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/scotland-to-be-offered-independence-or-sugary-snack-2-2012101544981

[moose]

I'm a bit torn. I like being part of the UK, have a lot of English friends and don't feel any need to be separated.

That sentence is perilously near to "some of my best friends are English"! 

I forecast dangerous times if independence occurs.  Northumberland and the borders will become bandit country; riven by violent gangs of smugglers, trafficking tartan rugs in return for Buckfast.  I'm going to invest all my money in shortbread and wait for the price to explode.

[magpie]

The SNP seem to have managed to prevent most of the wild fuckups that are going on in England just now: NHS privatisation, school curriculum, tuition fees etc.

My understanding of it is that if we become independant they'll be the first things to go, no more free prescriptions, no more cheap uni fees, all the benefits we currently have from being Scotland as part of the UK will go to try and pay for independance.  I reckon we'll end up in a worse position with regards to everything you've mentioned.

I'm not fully decided yet but I reckon it's a bad idea, I don't see what the major issue with being part of the UK is and why we'd be so much better on our own, so it'll probably be a no from me.

[SA Chris]

Me neither. Can't see any major benefit from independence, and can't see the country being any better off financially in the long term, unless midges suddenly become a harvestable foodstock.

And the bunch of dicks in Holyrood aren't that much better than the bunch of dicks in Westminster

[Jaspersharpe]

I'd be scared to join the Euro. I'd also be scared to keep the pound, but set our own taxes and interest rates etc.

I'm not an economist (fortunately) but I do find this shit interesting.

From what I've read, the former would require the consent of the other EU member states some of whom (e.g. Spain) might not be too happy about a "region" being given autonomy seeing as they have a bit of trouble with that sort of thing themselves. Salmond & Co. have already completely backtracked on this idea anyway given the total fucking mess that the Euro is in and besides all this, they'd only be swapping control from the BoE to control from the ECB.

The latter is not an option. If Scotland were to keep the pound then they would need to keep the support of the BoE and would therefore need currency union with the rest of the UK. This would obviously affect/restrict policy setting as you're not going to be able to spend spend spend while being tied to Dickhead Osborne's Austerity Death Slide.

All the "experts" seem to think that keeping the pound and currency union are the only way it would work as I think the only other option is for Scotland to create it's own currency (but I don't think that's really an option as it'd be too risky).

One other thing is that although everything may look peachy at the moment, Scotland's economic reliance on oil needs to be addressed and (however badly the Tories may be fucking things up at present) I reckon that'll be easier to do as part of the UK instead of on it's own.

Aside from making Salmond even more smug than he already is, I'm struggling to see the point of all this. It's not like it's going to make your football teams any better.

[SA Chris]

I think oil revenues are subject to debate too as Scotland wouldn't automatically get all the revenues, plus the income isn't guaranteed in perpetuity with little else to fall back on.

And football teams can't really get any worse can they?

[chris j]

I'd also be scared to keep the pound, but set our own taxes and interest rates etc.

Problem is that isn't an option. If you keep the pound and a currency union with the rest of the UK then you don't get to set interest rates. At best you might have a seat on the BoE MPC to argue Scotland's case but let's be honest it would be like the European Central Bank has always set the interest rate to suit Germany and the north rather than the Mediteranean countries. It's also a strange option to go for as the Euro is currently demonstrating a currency union doesn't work well without political union as well.

As far as my wife's family goes (who all live in Glasgow) the whole independence idea sounds very jolly (but said in a more Scots vernacular) but isn't something they'll be voting for anytime soon.

[Jaspersharpe]

Nobody reads the shit I write do they.

[slackline]

Seems to happen when posts are > two lines in my experience.

[Fultonius]

My understanding of it is that if we become independant they'll be the first things to go, no more free prescriptions, no more cheap uni fees, all the benefits we currently have from being Scotland as part of the UK will go to try and pay for independance. 

Interesting - can you point me in the rough direction where you heard this? That would be the final nail in the coffin for me.

And the bunch of dicks in Holyrood aren't that much better than the bunch of dicks in Westminster

Probably not, I guess it just seems like being 1 voice in 5 million has a bit more impact that 1 in 65 million.

Jasp, if all the experts think the only way is pound and fiscal union - what's the point?  I think the situation we have just now kind of works - we missed the independence about by 40 years in my opinion, although, I doubt Scotland would have done as good a job of managing their sovereign wealth fund as Norway has!


Also, the Tories are doing such a good job of fucking the place up that I can't imagine them being re-elected, but stranger things have happened...

[battery]

At this stage, I haven't seen enough information about the ins and outs of it all to make an informed decision about economics etc. This is in part due to me not researching it but it has a lot to do with the fact that most of the arguments so far have been based on centuries old bias and anti English feeling.

As an English person living in Scotland, I have been sworn at and abused for being English. This narrow minded bullying is only being fuelled by the arguments which are going on at the moment. Bannockburn was 100s of years ago and yet the 'national anthem' of Scotland is all about it and is sung with enthusiastic interjections which leave the English in no uncertain terms intimidated.

And is the Scottish Government campaigning to unite people and promote tolerance? No, it is fuelling the fire with talk of independence, pushing 2014 as the year of homecoming and planning huge celebrations of the 700th anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn. Coincidence that this is the same year as the referendum? I think not.

[moose]

My understanding of it is that if we become independant they'll be the first things to go, no more free prescriptions, no more cheap uni fees, all the benefits we currently have from being Scotland as part of the UK will go to try and pay for independance. 

I have heard no actual proof that Scotland's "benefits" will be scrapped (promises to make voters' lives worse rarely crop up in election manifestos, odd that), but it would not surprise me. 

Under the Barnett formula, when compared to England, Scotland gets around 20% per capita more from the UK treasury for those public expenditures they have control of (largely a legacy of outdated population measurements I think).  The 2007 figures (according to Wikipedia admittedly) were £7100 for England and £8600 for Scotland, per person per year.  Perhaps, oil revenue etc might compensate for this "subsidy", but perhaps not....

[Jaspersharpe]

Jasp, if all the experts think the only way is pound and fiscal union - what's the point?

Cos some people reckon they can have their cake and eat it. As in just cos they are tied to BoE monetary policy, they can still have control over tax revenues and spending.

I say bullshit.

[tomtom]

Nobody reads the shit I write do they.

Sorry?

[chris j]

Nobody reads the shit I write do they.

I assume that was pointed at me? Not sure why? I agree with you that in the short term then yes the currency union is the only practical way given the problems of setting up a new currency but it doesn't work in the long term without political union - small countries tied to currencies of larger countries/regions tend to suffer from massive boom and busts (but hey Scotland can have Gordon back to put an end to those).

You're spot on with your 11:07 post.

Ref the Barnett formula from moose I'm sure I saw somewhere a paper that said what came back to Scotland through the Barnett formula pretty much matched what went the other way through oil revenues.


(from another opinionated non-economist who likes to read)

[tomtom]

Talking oil....

My Geologist pals in the oil industry say there are some interesting issues in the ownership of the Shetland and Hebredian fields.. which apparently don't belong to Scotland or the UK, but England!

[SA Chris]

I think oil revenues are subject to debate too as Scotland wouldn't automatically get all the revenues,

Me, earlier. I think there also are issues regarding ownership of "Crown Estates" and the original issuing of exploration licences in the early days.

[mrjonathanr]

Offshore oil will get more expensive to extract before too long according to a Norwegian oil-worker friend of mine. And the fields are much bigger on their side.

[Fultonius]

As long as we all keep driving cars and burning gas in power stations the rise in price will always get passed on to the consumer.

[mrjonathanr]

But if the consumer can drive to a different garage then margins will fall for the oil extracted at higher cost and so treasury revenues, won't they?

[Jaspersharpe]

Nobody reads the shit I write do they.

I assume that was pointed at me? Not sure why?

Yes for once I wasn't trying to be a dick, just that both your and SA Chris' posts seemed to pointing out exactly the same things I was trying to say in my post immediately prior to them.

Anyway, I agree with all your points.

[Jaspersharpe]

And regardless of who actually owns what and when the revenues might fall, one thing everyone agrees on is that Scotland can't blithely rely on oil to be such a huge part of it's economy for the foreseeable future. Nobody is, or what do you think the arabs are doing in Manchester?