[andy popp]

MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??

Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.

I’,m slightly confused by the vaccine stories I’m hearing.
I’m 50 and I had my second shot (AV) three weeks ago. It had been booked for Aug 6, but I got a text on May 17 with a rescheduled appointment for May 22. I didn’t have to do anything or request it.
It seems strange that so many people in the bracket above me, still seemto be waiting for shot 2.

It depends on the area how quickly you'll get done.

It does seem relatively random or variable. My son (27, Widnes) has had both.

[slab_happy]

Yeah, the 50+ group (and everyone else in the top 9 priority groups) were all supposed to be re-scheduled with the reduced interval if they hdn't yet had their second shot, but it seems like that may have been happening in a rather patchy way -- Mr Mainwood is wondering wtf:

https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1403676278717399040
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1403774149936418821

I know at one point at least, if you'd booked through the NHS booking website, you'd be contacted and asked to rebook, which could only be done by cancelling your original appointment and then booking another (without being able to see availability in advance, so some people are worried that if they cancel they'll lose the original appointment and won't be able to get one sooner).

So I wonder if some people fell through the cracks and didn't get contacted when they should have been, or didn't want to rebook.

Both my younger sisters recently got texts with "hey new appointment on this date", re-scheduling their second appointment, while I haven't (we're all in our 40s, but in different areas of the country), so that's certainly variable.

[galpinos]

But to ignore any other factor that could possibly contribute to the three output numbers (cases, hospitalisations, deaths) and focus attention on one factor - perceived failure of border policy - is pushing a political agenda, not looking for truth.

Pete, if border policy isn't a factor and low vaccine uptake in certain communities is (I'm paraphrasing to make a point, sorry!), how come the Delta variant has taken control in the UK but in France and Germany, where they have a lot lower number of 1 or 2 dose vaccinated people due to a comparably very poor roll out of vaccinations, they have managed to control the Delta variant?

Genuine question, not spoiling for a fight, and the most compelling reason, imho, why I think the reluctance to red list India in line with Bangladesh and Pakistan was a very poor decision and, though not wholly responsible, is a significant contributing factor to why we are looking at a third wave now.

[Evil]

Yeah, I tried to move my 2nd appointment a bit closer but I can't, so I guess it depends on where you live. The earliest possible is at exactly 11 weeks.

[TobyD]

...why I think the reluctance to red list India in line with Bangladesh and Pakistan was a very poor decision and, though not wholly responsible, is a significant contributing factor to why we are looking at a third wave now.

Is the reason why delta has become prevalent here because we have a relatively large Indian population who were likely to be traveling there to see families etc? It doesn't mean the government is blameless, but perhaps even if Germany had the same border policy it wouldn't be as bad there anyway?

[tomtom]

Uk has easily the largest Indian diaspora in Europe. >Ten times the next on the list - Italy.

https://www.nriol.com/indiandiaspora/statistics-indians-abroad.asp

Dwarfed by the number (and percentage) in Saudi, Malaysia and UAE. Be interesting to see (a) what their respective travel policies are and (b) what their Delta rates are...

Answers:

Saudis rates are flat.
Malaysia has a (less severe) peak and drop like India (possibly a month behind)
UAE growing (2k cases a day).

https://boi.gov.in/content/advisory-travel-and-visa-restrictions-related-covid-19-1
Saudi has no restrictions. UAE does, Malaysia did (for a ten day period).

[slab_happy]

Is the reason why delta has become prevalent here because we have a relatively large Indian population who were likely to be traveling there to see families etc?

I'm sure that contributed to more seeding of it, but how that played out would still have been very heavily affected by the border policy, because India being on the amber list meant people returning from India were home-quarantining rather than in hotel quarantine.

And the combination is a reason why Delta is hitting us sooner than other European countries, but it does also look like it moves horribly fast once it gets established anywhere.

Various US epidemiologists seem to be bracing for impact and watching the UK, because Delta's now accelerating over there too (and their overall vaccination percentage is not too dissimilar from the UK):

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1404089689934471171

[Wellsy]

MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??

Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.

I’,m slightly confused by the vaccine stories I’m hearing.
I’m 50 and I had my second shot (AV) three weeks ago. It had been booked for Aug 6, but I got a text on May 17 with a rescheduled appointment for May 22. I didn’t have to do anything or request it.
It seems strange that so many people in the bracket above me, still seemto be waiting for shot 2.

It depends on the area how quickly you'll get done.

It does seem relatively random or variable. My son (27, Widnes) has had both.

I've had both. I had my second one in May. And I'm 31, I don't work in health and social care provision, and I have absolutely no medical conditions (other than being shit at slab climbing). There's definitely a lot of outliers.

[tomtom]

MrsTt’s WhatsApp is busy tonight. New cases in her work and mum friends. It’s not felt this covid ‘busy’ since April last year tbh. Bloody hope that link between catching it and hospitalisation is severed or close to - else it feels like it’s going to be a right mess: part 3.

[spidermonkey09]

Hard to conclude anything else from the PHE data on the vaccines yesterday surely? Particularly if those in your wife and MIL's friends are double jabbed, which presumably they would be by now? Obviously I share your hope; had my first jab yesterday!

On Monday, Public Health England also released encouraging data suggesting Covid jabs appeared to offer substantial protection against hospitalisation from the Delta variant. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 94% effective against hospital admission after one dose, rising to 96% after two doses. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is 71% effective against hospital admission after one dose, rising to 92% after two.

[TobyD]

MrsTt’s WhatsApp is busy tonight. New cases in her work and mum friends. It’s not felt this covid ‘busy’ since April last year tbh. Bloody hope that link between catching it and hospitalisation is severed or close to - else it feels like it’s going to be a right mess: part 3.

If you look at the I newspaper today,  it has quite a good article detailing best / medium  / worst case scenarios for the next few weeks. 

The messaging from the government is probably directly responsible for a lot of various people's anger about the delay in lifting restrictions.  Boris Johnson, always in a rush to sound upbeat,  makes each stage sound like definitely the end of any restrictions.  It's just not honest.  If, and I really hope this isn't the case,  the number of vaccine refusers and unvaccinated youngsters is enough to send cases higher, and deaths are soaring,  theres no way they can keep to the July date, and may instead have to start increasing restrictions,  but let's hope vaccination keeps the numbers down and at some point all the bullshit will be gone. 

[slab_happy]

Hard to conclude anything else from the PHE data on the vaccines yesterday surely?

Yeah, hopefully the case/hospitalization link is severely weakened if not broken for the fully vaccinated (not 100% broken, because you've still got some breakthrough with the vaccines, and the older/more vulnerable groups who are most of the fully-vaxxed right now are also the most likely to be hospitalized if they do get ill, and also more likely to have a lower immune response to the vaccines, either because of age or being immunocompromised).

But right now you've got cases spiking in the unvaccinated (and to a lesser degree half-vaccinated) age groups. Who are much less likely to need hospitalization -- but Delta looks like it's around twice as likely to hospitalize people as Alpha is:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

That plus the increased transmissibility makes it fucking nasty.

People are hoping that the hospitalization cases may still tend to be shorter stays, lead to fewer deaths relative to numbers of hospitalizations, etc., but that picture's not clear.

Hopefully the 4-week delay will be enough to keep the lid on it, but it could still be rough.

[slab_happy]

had my first jab yesterday!

Congrats! May your side-effects be mild and your immune response robust!

[slab_happy]

Fuck yeah -- it's expected that the NHS booking service will be open to 18+ by the end of the week, apparently:

https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1404725071692898309

[andy popp]

Various US epidemiologists seem to be bracing for impact and watching the UK, because Delta's now accelerating over there too (and their overall vaccination percentage is not too dissimilar from the UK):

I think the US is at about 52% with at least one dose, definitely behind the UK. More importantly, the program is stalling badly because most people willing to get a jab have done so. There are huge regional variations. Some states are at about 30% somewhat vaccinated and it's even lower at the level of individual counties in some places. It could be horrible if the Delta variant gets into those communities.

[slab_happy]

I think the US is at about 52% with at least one dose, definitely behind the UK.

Almost identical when it comes to full vaccination, though -- 44% and 43%. Which, given that Delta seems to reduce the protection you get from a single dose, might mean the UK's not too bad a model. Certainly enough that they're watching us very closely.

Some states are at about 30% somewhat vaccinated and it's even lower at the level of individual counties in some places. It could be horrible if the Delta variant gets into those communities.

Yep. Was just chatting yesterday with a close friend who lives in Arkansas. The state is 32.6% fully vaccinated and Covid cases are rising again; not surprisingly, she's worried it could get really bad.

[TobyD]

BBC News - Covid vaccine to be required for England care home staff
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57492264

On the face of it this seems like a good idea,  although I'm open to being told of unintended consequences or downsides.  When I was working in the NHS,  it used to really piss me off when colleagues would refuse the seasonal flu vaccine,  despite the fact that we were working with people aged 70-100+ everyday. 

[slab_happy]

Aha:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/06/C1324-Letter-to-vaccination-sites-15-June-2021.pdf

From the 21st, they're going to be inviting people in their 40s who've got their 2nd appointment more than 9 weeks from the first dose to rebook.

Also they're "shortly" going to have the booking system fixed so people can see availability before cancelling their original appointment.

[spidermonkey09]

Also they're "shortly" going to have the booking system fixed so people can see availability before cancelling their original appointment.

I rebooked mine last night using the cancel/rebook system and whilst it briefly felt risky and 'wrong', I had the new appointment booked within about 35 seconds. If anyone else is putting this off I would suggest just crack on.

[Will Hunt]

My second (Pfizer) is booked 11 weeks after the 1st dose, which was the default when I originally booked. If I cancel and move this forward (what are people going for? 8 weeks after 1st?), is this not taking a slot in late July from a younger person who could be looking for their first dose? Is uptake the limiting factor at this point, as opposed to capacity to administer vaccines/supply?
Also, isn't it worth waiting the few extra weeks during the lower risk summer period and getting better overall protection for the winter waves?

[sdm]

When I was working in the NHS,  it used to really piss me off when colleagues would refuse the seasonal flu vaccine,  despite the fact that we were working with people aged 70-100+ everyday.

At the trusts around here, staff are free to refuse the flu vaccine. But if they refuse the flu vaccine and subsequently take time off work with flu symptoms, they face disciplinary action.

I'm not sure it's the best way to incentivise uptake (it could incentivise unvaccinated people to go in to work with flu symptoms) but the uptake is very high. I'm also not sure what the legal position of it is, but as far as I know, it hasn't been challenged.

[slab_happy]

Also, isn't it worth waiting the few extra weeks during the lower risk summer period and getting better overall protection for the winter waves?

As far as I know, Pfizer's pretty bombproof at any interval -- 8 weeks seems to be the minimum interval the current system allows with any vaccine, but Pfizer's handed out at a 4-week interval (the one originally studied) in plenty of places round the world. There was one study showing that a 12-week interval can improve antibodies in a group of older people, but it's gilding the lily; really doesn't need it.

It's AZ where stretching out the interval can really make a difference to the final level of protection. Though in the current situation, getting double-dosed sooner (so you have excellent protection against hospitalization) probably trumps trying to maximize absolute protection.

[Will Hunt]

Also, isn't it worth waiting the few extra weeks during the lower risk summer period and getting better overall protection for the winter waves?

As far as I know, Pfizer's pretty bombproof at any interval -- 8 weeks seems to be the minimum interval the current system allows with any vaccine, but Pfizer's handed out at a 4-week interval (the one originally studied) in plenty of places round the world. There was one study showing that a 12-week interval can improve antibodies in a group of older people, but it's gilding the lily; really doesn't need it.

It's AZ where stretching out the interval can really make a difference to the final level of protection. Though in the current situation, getting double-dosed sooner (so you have excellent protection against hospitalization) probably trumps trying to maximize absolute protection.

Thanks Slab. I've rebooked. Just checked the figures and I'd forgotten that, while 1 dose is still very good for preventing hospitalisation, it will only be about 36% effective at preventing symptomatic disease - as opposed to the 88% effectiveness after 2 doses. Still a number to make an XCOM player sweat, but massively better than the 1 dose figure.

[Offwidth]

BBC News - Covid vaccine to be required for England care home staff
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57492264

On the face of it this seems like a good idea,  although I'm open to being told of unintended consequences or downsides.  When I was working in the NHS,  it used to really piss me off when colleagues would refuse the seasonal flu vaccine,  despite the fact that we were working with people aged 70-100+ everyday.

There is a bit of a heavy handed approach to an 'easy target' about it... largely non unionised minimum wage staff... plus the sector has massive staff shortages already and can ill afford to lose more over this combative style. There were also various legal questions that might add large costs and I'm not sure if they are all covered by the government action.

https://www.carehome.co.uk/news/article.cfm/id/1642095/can-care-homes-force-staff-have-covid-vaccine

https://www.carehome.co.uk/news/article.cfm/id/1647914/Fears-grow-mandatory-staff-vaccination-could-make-care-home-workers-unemployable

[slab_happy]

Just checked the figures and I'd forgotten that, while 1 dose is still very good for preventing hospitalisation, it will only be about 36% effective at preventing symptomatic disease

Yeah, that's why they're shortening the interval to push second doses hard. "Stretch out the interval to get first doses to the maximum number of people" was a great strategy with Original Flavour Covid and the subsequent variants -- until Delta came along.

Still a number to make an XCOM player sweat, but massively better than the 1 dose figure.

There's a interesting phenomenon where we've all gotten used to the near-100% numbers the mRNA vaccines get against Original Flavour, and lost track of (or never knew to begin with) how absurdly, ridiculously good even the somewhat reduced numbers are.

The original bar the FDA set was that they'd consider for approval anything that got over 50% effectiveness, and at that point Fauci was apparently hoping that maybe they might get lucky and get something that hit 70-75%.

Really interesting piece on how very lucky we got and why: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/mrna-covid-vaccine-success

Plus, speaking from Team AZ And Not Bitter About It At All Really (I was in the placebo group for the J&J trial) -- the key figure from a personal survival standpoint is the effectiveness against hospitalization; as long as that stays very high, then you've basically reduced Covid to a very bad flu.