[spidermonkey09]

No, not pointless, but for me it probably falls into the category of 'interesting, but essentially useless in a practical sense' because people simply aren't going to go and get tested if they have a headache I don't think. I don't think I would without a bit more understanding of type/longevity/other elements of the headache. (eg if it sticks around for two days or something).

[mrjonathanr]

I get very uneasy about the calls to 'shut the borders' from liberal/left leaning people or media, or from the Labour Party as it runs completely counter to my world view. It plays completely into the hands of the nativist and isolationist right wing who think we can wall ourselves off and be safe from all the worlds ills, which coincidentally (for them) all seem to materialise in non-white majority countries 

I agreement with your sentiment there, but in a pandemic, some control measures are needed for public health. We can debate what they may be (quite stringent for UK citizens) but shutting borders and insisting on quarantine are not the same thing at all. What’s particularly egregious here is the delay in applying the measures to India which were applied to its neighbours Pakistan and Bangladesh.

[slab_happy]

So Tim Spector reckons symptoms from Delta variant are headache, sore throat, runny nose and then fever. Not cough. So all those young people filling the pubs who think they’ve got a headache/summer cold aren’t going to bother getting a test as there’s nothing from the gov, nor media about this.

FFS.

To be fair, looks like he said that on the 9th, so it's very very recent info. The ZOE data's been really early picking up on some things (IIRC they picked up loss of smell/taste as a marker before anyone else did), but I'd still expect people to want to confirm that from other sources before they launch a government publicity campaign to notify everyone about changed symptoms.

But yeah, if it turns out we've got changed symptoms on top of everything else, not really ideal ...

[Will Hunt]

I'd still expect people to want to confirm that from other sources before they launch a government publicity campaign to notify everyone about changed symptoms.

Not least because public health messages need to be as simple as possible. The Delta variant is replacing the previous iteration but it's still not the only game in town. I know quite a few people who reported other cold-like symptoms with the Alpha variant but the messaging remained as the distinctive new, continuous dry cough, high temperature, loss of taste/smell. These weren't the only symptoms, but I expect they policy makers wanted to avoid slews of false positives.

[seankenny]

I get very uneasy about the calls to 'shut the borders' from liberal/left leaning people or media, or from the Labour Party as it runs completely counter to my world view. It plays completely into the hands of the nativist and isolationist right wing who think we can wall ourselves off and be safe from all the worlds ills, which coincidentally (for them) all seem to materialise in non-white majority countries  I know nobody on here is saying that (obviously!) but |I think its worth considering whether its a wise position to take, no matter how nuanced we think it is.

In normal times, I totally agree with this as shutting borders doesn't tend to solve the problems its proponents want solving. But in this case, stricter border controls clearly would have had an effect, so should definitely be a policy option.

I have a lot of in-laws in South Asia (thankfully not India), my partner would clearly love to be able to visit her mum but is holding off for now as it's just not sensible. But if for any reason she absolutely had to, then I think it's totally reasonable that she should be able to and should be made to quarantine on her return. Ideally in some kind of paid for/subsidised accomodation with a degree of oversight by the authorities.

I'm more pissed off at the government cutting the aid budget, both for the moral reasons (we are rich) and the self-interested one (we benefit from poor countries being healthier). I can foresee a situation in a year or two where we will still find it hard to visit relatives but most Brits can enjoy travel in Europe/the US/Australia, completely unaffected by travel restrictions.

[TobyD]

I'm more pissed off at the government cutting the aid budget, both for the moral reasons (we are rich) and the self-interested one (we benefit from poor countries being healthier). I can foresee a situation in a year or two where we will still find it hard to visit relatives but most Brits can enjoy travel in Europe/the US/Australia, completely unaffected by travel restrictions.

It's the stupidest foreign policy decision outside of leaving the EU that they've made, it's even stupider given that we've left.
Both for the reasons you cite and that it's a great way to increase migration, people trafficking etc
Ultimately it probably cost less than Dido Harding and her useless track and trace.

[seankenny]

I'm more pissed off at the government cutting the aid budget, both for the moral reasons (we are rich) and the self-interested one (we benefit from poor countries being healthier). I can foresee a situation in a year or two where we will still find it hard to visit relatives but most Brits can enjoy travel in Europe/the US/Australia, completely unaffected by travel restrictions.

It's the stupidest foreign policy decision outside of leaving the EU that they've made, it's even stupider given that we've left.
Both for the reasons you cite and that it's a great way to increase migration, people trafficking etc
Ultimately it probably cost less than Dido Harding and her useless track and trace.

What's really frustrating is that after all that fucking bollocks Cummings came out with about wanting some data driven, analytically minded civil servants, they close the Dept for International Development which actually did all that stuff. I studied a great paper on improving teaching in rural Indian schools, it was a huge RCT involving hundreds of primary schools, a variety of incentives for teachers to turn up (they frequently don't), obviously very expensive to do and partly funded by DfID to give them a better idea of how to spend their budget. Now it's all folded into the FCO and used as a carrot to encourage trade. Shocking, and short sighted.

[tomtom]

Don’t know how it is for everyone else, but we’ve got four friends up here  (inc out next door neighbour) who’ve been pinged by the app this week…

[teestub]

What’s the deal if you get a track and trace alert but are fully magnetic 5g’ed up, do you still need to isolate?

[mrjonathanr]

Chatting to my partner today. She has a lot of contacts amongst pubs, reps, brewery trade. Depressing to hear how many publicans say, that after spending in preparation for full reopening on June 21st, they may well go to the wall if it can’t go ahead. That shillyshallying over the borders could cost a lot of livelihoods in hospitality.

[petejh]

Furlough doesn't end on June 21st (extended to September), business relief neither*. To open, staff have to be employed and drinks/food/consumables ordered. They require money, or the promise of money, upfront. So why, if you run a business, would you be so utterly stupid as to place all your financial eggs in the so-obviously-not-certain basket of opening on June 21st. That doesn't make any sense.



*NICs and 10% of missed wage have to be paid though.

[mrjonathanr]

It is easy to oversimplify and underestimate the costs and exposure of hospitality businesses. Supply is not meeting demand due to unpredictability of sales. That means a lot of pubs have had to get orders in significantly in advance if they are to serve customers. Overheads in a range of hospitality venues Van be very significant. Staffing costs are not the only business costs that have to be covered. There are loans, leases, rates, taxation and a lot of businesses  are at the end of their capacity to manage. It isn’t just about now, a lot of money has been lost this last year or so. The unpredictability of lockdown decisions has hit businesses hard with a lot of setting up and product costs entirely wasted and unrecouped.

[petejh]

I don't doubt any of that. But it doesn't lead on that your point about border policy is the reason for their struggle and possible failure. There's no way you can isolate that one factor among a myriad of interconnectedness to do with a pandemic and trying to come out the other side of it, and single it out as the reason for any business to fail. Opening on June 21st was uncertain from the day they announced the staged process months ago. No prudent business owner would ever bank on that date as 100% certain.

[mrjonathanr]

Opening on June 21st was uncertain from the day they announced the staged process months ago. No prudent business owner would ever bank on that date as 100% certain.

I’m sorry, but this is pompous nonsense. And an irrelevant aunt sally which ignores the pressures of trying to stay afloat after 16 months of pandemic.

My point, which you are free to -and clearly do- object to, is that the failure to exercise basic control over borders despite evidence of the potential dangers of the delta variant has seeded and accelerated a new wave. The policy cannot have been truly evidence based when Pakistan and Bangladesh were on the red list but not India. Whilst Johnson was hoping to meet Modi, it’s obvious why.

The variant would arrive at some point, but the rapid loss of control causes chaos. And businesses, as you know, need to plan.

The government owes the country a duty of competence. Instead, it’s cavalier.

[TobyD]

I don't doubt any of that. But it doesn't lead on that your point about border policy is the reason for their struggle and possible failure. There's no way you can isolate that one factor among a myriad of interconnectedness to do with a pandemic and trying to come out the other side of it, and single it out as the reason for any business to fail. Opening on June 21st was uncertain from the day they announced the staged process months ago. No prudent business owner would ever bank on that date as 100% certain.

I pretty much agree with Pete here, the only thing that's set up the 21st as 'freedom day' is various newspapers and a chunk of conservative backbenchers. Originally all the dates were earliest possible unlocking dates. Unfortunately,  Johnson's rhetoric has played along with this narrative however in an attempt to cultivate popularity,  so it is in significant part still his fault.

[petejh]

Opening on June 21st was uncertain from the day they announced the staged process months ago. No prudent business owner would ever bank on that date as 100% certain.

I’m sorry, but this is pompous nonsense. And an irrelevant aunt sally which ignores the pressures of trying to stay afloat after 16 months of pandemic.

My point, which you are free to -and clearly do- object to, is that the failure to exercise basic control over borders despite evidence of the potential dangers of the delta variant has seeded and accelerated a new wave. The policy cannot have been truly evidence based when Pakistan and Bangladesh were on the red list but not India. Whilst Johnson was hoping to meet Modi, it’s obvious why.

The variant would arrive at some point, but the rapid loss of control causes chaos. And businesses, as you know, need to plan.

The government owes the country a duty of competence. Instead, it’s cavalier.

You're clearly upset about this. And yes I do clearly think you're talking rubbish. I'll leave you to it.

[mrjonathanr]

Likewise, but we can agree to differ.

[danm]

I think perhaps that you are both right to some extent. A tighter control of borders would have helped prevent or slow new strains entering the country, that is fairly indisputable.

Regarding reopening dates, yes business owners should be aware that these dates were just putative. That doesn't alter the fact that for hospitality businesses, hiring staff in order to be ready in time is non-trivial at the minute, plus if you want to serve your customers with beer etc, that has a lead time too. Many were put in an unenviable position - hold off until certain and risk not being able to open giving competitors a head start, or take a bit of a punt. The point is, many saw the later as the best option out of desperation as they will go under otherwise.

[TobyD]

I think perhaps that you are both right to some extent. A tighter control of borders would have helped prevent or slow new strains entering the country, that is fairly indisputable.

Regarding reopening dates, yes business owners should be aware that these dates were just putative. That doesn't alter the fact that for hospitality businesses, hiring staff in order to be ready in time is non-trivial at the minute, plus if you want to serve your customers with beer etc, that has a lead time too. Many were put in an unenviable position - hold off until certain and risk not being able to open giving competitors a head start, or take a bit of a punt. The point is, many saw the later as the best option out of desperation as they will go under otherwise.

I'm sure that there has been and is a fairly hefty chunk of people of all dispositions on rules hearing what they want to hear from government announcements and not listening to the bits that are inconvenient for them. I'd say that business support is one of the few things that the government haven't completely screwed up, but the kicker is that when the support fails off, many of them are going to fail unfortunately.  This may in part be to do with Brexit as much as covid, which is influencing staff shortages and would have affected tourism without covid. I'm looking for a job at the moment and seriously considering doing a catering qualification,  as there are literally hundreds of jobs going absolutely everywhere. 

[petejh]

Likewise, but we can agree to differ.

Said I'd leave it there but the point is an interesting one. Look at it another way:

The issue you're vexed about - some hospitality venues not being able to open on a particular date - can be boiled down to three numbers, their rate of change, and their relation to each other i.e. how does one influence the other. There are only three numbers that matter* in this issue: cases, hospitalisations, deaths.

Focussing on border closures being a possible contributing factor to those 3 important numbers, while ignoring all other possible contributing factors, seems a short-sighted way of working out what causes change within a dynamic system with myriad contributing factors. If you really were interested in trying to understand what's going on, then here's an idea - how about considering other possible contributors that don't involve dogmatic allegiance to a coloured rosette. Here are two:

1. A small delay in vaccine shipments (from India.. hmm) during a 4-week period in March/April. Resulting in a slightly slower rate of vaccination than would have occurred in a parallel UK where this delayed shipment didn't occur, all other things being equal.
2. Lower take-up of vaccination compared to the national average among the BAME population, from December through to present day. The results of which are evident in the stats. Compared to a parallel UK where take-up of vaccination among the BAME population was in line with the national average, all other things being equal.   

That's not meant to blame either of the above factors for the 3 important output figures (case/hospitalisations/deaths). Merely to highlight that there are lots of moving parts, and I'm sure we could think of other contributing factors in long chains of events within a dynamic system that could possibly contribute to three important output numbers and their rate of change. If any of them had been slightly different it may not have mattered about border policy with India. It may not matter anyway. Or it may.

But to ignore any other factor that could possibly contribute to the three output numbers (cases, hospitalisations, deaths) and focus attention on one factor - perceived failure of border policy - is pushing a political agenda, not looking for truth. You're free to push your political agenda on here. I'm free to call it what it is.



* https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/04/08/what-is-behind-the-low-covid-19-vaccine-take-up-in-some-ethnic-minorities/
* https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n781
* https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-18/astra-shipment-from-india-said-to-be-behind-u-k-vaccine-delay

* Yes obviously there's people's stupid politics as well - or stupid people's politics if you want - but if you're trying to make the case that the UK's border policy for India is directly responsible for some hospitality venues not being able to open on a particular day, then it boils down to those three numbers as they underlie most of the decision to allow the venues to re-open.

[Stabbsy]

I doubt anyone would argue that there are lots of factors affecting your 3 figures, Pete. However, for some of those the government has minimal control or the effect will take too long to feed through (vaccine delay, vaccine take-up) and for some it has significant control (border control). It isn’t the only factor, but it would have a marginal impact in the right direction and the government can do something about it.

[tomtom]

MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??

Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.

[Oldmanmatt]

MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??

Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.

I’,m slightly confused by the vaccine stories I’m hearing.
I’m 50 and I had my second shot (AV) three weeks ago. It had been booked for Aug 6, but I got a text on May 17 with a rescheduled appointment for May 22. I didn’t have to do anything or request it.
It seems strange that so many people in the bracket above me, still seemto be waiting for shot 2.

[tomtom]

MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??

Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.

And another two neighbours (only 12 houses in the road) have been told to isolate by the app. Perhaps they’ve tweaked the app due to Delta spreading faster.

[TobyD]

MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??

Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.

I’,m slightly confused by the vaccine stories I’m hearing.
I’m 50 and I had my second shot (AV) three weeks ago. It had been booked for Aug 6, but I got a text on May 17 with a rescheduled appointment for May 22. I didn’t have to do anything or request it.
It seems strange that so many people in the bracket above me, still seemto be waiting for shot 2.

It depends on the area how quickly you'll get done. They've been pretty speedy in Sheffield, with large pop up vaccine centres a lot.