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the shizzle => shootin' the shit => two wheel spiel => Topic started by: mr__j5 on July 01, 2010, 07:39:02 am

Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 01, 2010, 07:39:02 am
It must be time to see how stupid I can look, with some leftfield predictions for this race that starts on Saturday.

I am going for:

GC:
1) Cadel Evans
2) Alberto Contador
3) Bradley Wiggins
4) Lance Armstrong
5) Andy Schleck

Green Jersey:
Oscar Friere or Thor Hushovd. (Basicially, I don't think Cav will manage it this year)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Darren S on July 01, 2010, 07:50:34 am
My top four are:

1) Contador
2) Armstrong
3) Schlek (either one) Frank is a good bet for an each way bet @33/1
4) Wiggins

Going to see the second stage on Sunday as it is close to my house, it will be the first time I have seen a stage in person so looking forward to it.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 01, 2010, 09:22:22 am
Contador
Schleck
Wiggins

Armstrong in 5th
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 01, 2010, 01:56:54 pm
right then:

first off i will state that Fabian Cancellara will win the prologue on saturday with wiggo a close second.

GC as follows:

contador
andy schleck
wiggins

inside top 10 - armstrong, evans, rogers, vande velde, frank schleck, kreuziger, basso.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 01, 2010, 04:25:55 pm
right then:

first off i will state that Fabian Cancellara will win the prologue on saturday with wiggo a close second.

I agree. Certainly Cancellara for the win.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 01, 2010, 05:03:12 pm
I'll go for

1. EPO
2. Continuous Erythropoiesis Receptor Activator (CERA)
3. Dehydroepiandrosterone
4. stanazol
5. cocaine
 ;)

Sorry - thats a cheap shot really - I'm looking forward to the tour.. and hope Wiggins whips Armstrongs ass...


(btw - this is quite a page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling))
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Baron on July 01, 2010, 06:04:53 pm
bike doping
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: joel on July 01, 2010, 08:16:01 pm
1. Contador
2. Wiggins
3. Basso

Both Schlecks and Armstrong in the top 10, Evans outside I think he's knackered himself out by riding hard at too many events this year?

Hushovd for the green jersey without winning any sprints outright; Cavendish won't make it to the end.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 02, 2010, 12:58:27 pm
rounding off the top 10, in no particular order, I'm going for:

Leipheimer
Basso
Rogers
F Schelck
J van den Broeck
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 02, 2010, 01:40:44 pm
Contador to win.

Others to feature: Andy Schleck, Basso, Vande Velde.

Cancellera for the Prologue.

Armstrong - who knows, I suspect he'll try a scrap with Alberto and get pissed on.
Wiggo I don't hold much hope for - I reckon his high was last year.

Cavendish won't make it over the mountains leaving the Green Jersey for Hushovd or Friere.

No doubt there will be some Italian climber who comes out the wood-work who thinks they are the the new Pantani and be found to be up to his eyeballs on EPO etc

Nicholas Roche if he gets to ride must be in with a shout for the Young rider jersey.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 05, 2010, 08:39:42 am
bit mental that yesterday. got a feeling that cav's lead out train is going to get swamped like that on all the sprint stages, garmin look strong.

enjoyed watching cancellara crush everyone in the prologue.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 05, 2010, 01:06:45 pm
Seen this?
http://www.google.com/intl/en/landing/mytrackstour/ (http://www.google.com/intl/en/landing/mytrackstour/)

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 05, 2010, 08:58:41 pm
Pave tomorrow! Although apparently some are trying to neutralise the stage. Otherwise it could be a huge day for the standing.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 06, 2010, 10:24:27 am
I'm still not sure what the protest was about yesterday.
Was it that they thought the stage was unsuitable for the tour as it was too steep/slippy in the wet and therefore unjustifiable ?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: slackline on July 06, 2010, 10:39:38 am
I predict several of the top cyclists and winners of stages will test positive for banned substances at some point in the Tour, and there will be the usual circus surrounding such "revelations"  :P
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 06, 2010, 08:21:26 pm
I'm still not sure what the protest was about yesterday.
Was it that they thought the stage was unsuitable for the tour as it was too steep/slippy in the wet and therefore unjustifiable ?

Cancellera seemed to get it neutralised - due to it being unsuitable???

Today's pave was an awesome stage. Shame old Lance got a puncture, when riding in the gutter. All cobble riders know you need to be in the centre of the pave. Some surprises by Andy Schlek and Alberto keeping with the pace.

Frank Schlek's crashing out may mean that Andy is free to ride and not hang about in the montain for his Bro.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 07, 2010, 10:20:08 am
Apparently (I heard from some bikey) its to do with not taking advantage of someone else's misfortune to gain a lead.
The misfortune being the slip on the oil from the motorbike engine that crashed rather than slipping because its hard to ride a bike downhill on wet cobbles
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 07, 2010, 01:24:36 pm
yesterday was amazing. really exciting stuff, loved it.
my brother made an epic effort to watch the stage, they drove to dover, parked, got the ferry with bikes, rode from dunkirk to the final section of cobbles, then rode back. 170 mile round trip.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 07, 2010, 08:42:46 pm
cav = slow.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: SteveM on July 07, 2010, 10:08:08 pm
my brother made an epic effort to watch the stage, they drove to dover, parked, got the ferry with bikes, rode from dunkirk to the final section of cobbles, then rode back. 170 mile round trip.
Respect. Went out for a short spin this evening and found two stretches of "pavé" around Ilkley and Otley :-)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: squeek on July 08, 2010, 12:25:11 pm
cav = slow.

Are you going to have him a race?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Percy B on July 08, 2010, 01:12:18 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/picturegalleries/7873504/Agony-for-cyclists-in-Tour-de-France-2010-crashes-in-pictures.html?image=4 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/picturegalleries/7873504/Agony-for-cyclists-in-Tour-de-France-2010-crashes-in-pictures.html?image=4)

Lots of knarly crash pictures here after the first 4 days - skip to image 5 of Robbie McEwan - I predict that that is going to hurt when he gets in the bath!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: slackline on July 08, 2010, 01:20:06 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/picturegalleries/7873504/Agony-for-cyclists-in-Tour-de-France-2010-crashes-in-pictures.html?image=4 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/picturegalleries/7873504/Agony-for-cyclists-in-Tour-de-France-2010-crashes-in-pictures.html?image=4)

Lots of knarly crash pictures here after the first 4 days - skip to image 5 of Robbie McEwan - I predict that that is going to hurt when he gets in the bath!

Rider in picture 8 looks seriously unhealthy.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 08, 2010, 01:32:57 pm
cav = slow.

Are you going to have him a race?

errr. slower than other pro tour sprinters i should have said.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 08, 2010, 04:27:21 pm
cav = slow.

Are you going to have him a race?

he didn't just look slow
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Richie Crouch on July 08, 2010, 05:55:19 pm
Made up to see Cav get a stage after the negative press over the last few days!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 08, 2010, 07:59:44 pm
kept myself *blind* on the net to see the highlights...


lump in throat moment....

good luck tomorrow Cav... he was the fastest today... lets see some more... fuckin great TV!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 08, 2010, 08:11:47 pm
looks like i was well wrong there then.

pretty touched watching that interview, good to see how much it all means to him.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Percy B on July 08, 2010, 09:02:17 pm
I spend all afternoon avoiding finding out who's won, saving myself for the highlights and then the bloody news reader on 6music of all places announced that Cav had won whilst I was driving home from work. Gutted! Bloody 6music - and I campaigned to save you lot, you bastards!

I'm well happy that Cav won though.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 08, 2010, 11:36:55 pm
6music  :o :o

you  deserve it mate  ;)

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: BB on July 09, 2010, 09:58:03 am
Well done Cav. What a great post race interview. It was really touching to see how emotional he was about making sure he didn't let his team down.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 11, 2010, 09:26:48 pm
great exciting racing this weekend, shame to see wiggins blow in the last kms, i thought he was looking good.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 12, 2010, 10:02:01 am
Reminded me of when he got dropped on Ventoux last year.

Still, he only lost 1m45, it's not like he trailed in almost 12 minutes down on the lead group....

Nice to see Andy Schleck put in a proper attack - although his windmilling victory celebrations were a bit too disturbingly sapling-in-a-storm. At least he didn't snap off an arm.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: squeek on July 12, 2010, 12:36:59 pm
great exciting racing this weekend, shame to see wiggins blow in the last kms, i thought he was looking good.

It's those black socks that do it.  Roche looked wrecked when he got dropped.

It's good to see these athletes say it straight when they don't make it too, rather than make a load of excuses up. 

Should be a good one tomorrow.  Maybe Lance will do a Landis and get the yellow?  ;)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 12, 2010, 08:09:11 pm
i think lance has been "doing a Landis" his whole career, but he has just avoided getting caught!

why would team sky ride in black in the 35 degree heat? is brailsford mad?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 13, 2010, 09:24:09 am
They have white panels on the back, and mesh sides:

(http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/02DUbxA8Zd671/610x.jpg)

(but this doesn't rule out DB being a fruitcake...)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mjh on July 13, 2010, 10:19:06 am
why would team sky ride in black in the 35 degree heat? is brailsford mad?

More to the point was Team Sky's suicidal push up the penultimate climb, so that BW was left with little/no help on the last climb...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 13, 2010, 12:56:53 pm
why would team sky ride in black in the 35 degree heat? is brailsford mad?

More to the point was Team Sky's suicidal push up the penultimate climb, so that BW was left with little/no help on the last climb...

tdf suicide! no surprise that he couldnt hold on at the end!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 13, 2010, 12:58:52 pm
interesting to see Contador unable to follow Schleck at the end the other day. Was he just fucked, or what? Do the roadies know?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 13, 2010, 01:36:43 pm
I'm not really a roadie, but...

Reading some of the rest-day press reports, contador made it sound like he started responding, then decided to wait for the rest of the group. Bear in mind that Contador is apparently aiming to peak in the third week...

However, I've also seen suggestions that he'd had breathing difficuties during the stage, so he might not have been able to follow - far better to let AS get a few seconds and not show the world that he couldn't counter the attack.

Those few seconds are probably not too important. The final "real" stage this year is a 50km time trial in Bordeaux. Contador can expect to take at least 3 or 4 minutes out of Schleck. If AS wants to win then he has to have a lead of around 5 minutes before then. That means attacking at every opportunity in a real rabid-badger Hinault style. Of course now he doesn't have to wait for his slower big bro, which should help.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mjh on July 13, 2010, 01:50:57 pm
It was the first I ever remember seeing Contador in any sort of trouble in the TdF, so I think it was significant.  It will give Schleck real confidence that he can put time between himself and Contador (though perhaps not on today's stage - 30km from top of the Madeleine to the finish).

Palomides is right that Schleck knows he needs a decent time gap for the TT stage, but that just makes it more likely he will attack.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 14, 2010, 06:38:18 pm
(http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j272/the_third_eye/9_600.jpg)

Cofidis rode my favorite ever bike today (mine would have campagnolo super record and lightweight wheels - im my dreams like (logs onto national lottery site)).
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 15, 2010, 01:44:10 pm
I think I'm most impressed with the cranks on that bike - a one-piece carbon monocoque that has to be threaded through from the drive side:
(http://cdn.mos.bikeradar.com/images/news/2010/07/01/1277975935110-13z24pzt86och-500-90-500-70.jpg)

It'll never catch on...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 15, 2010, 09:28:58 pm
well...what the fuck was renshaw up to this afternoon? does that by default put cav out of the tour too?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tlr on July 15, 2010, 11:01:15 pm
Certainly wouldn't be surprised if Cav throws his toys out of the pram and goes home too.

Renshaw's second action did seem pretty blatant; look left then veer violently across to block.

Loved the  :wall: though....nutcase.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on July 16, 2010, 05:57:05 am
well...what the fuck was renshaw up to this afternoon? does that by default put cav out of the tour too?

He was leaned on, if u see the helicopter shot, dean moves them all to the left so Renshaw didn't start it. As tlr says, the veer to his left after cav had already gone was wild though.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mjh on July 16, 2010, 09:57:33 am
Renshaw was treated pretty harshly - Dean came across him and pushed him to the barriers so he used his head to tell him to get off his line (it was hardly the violent headbutt that some of the media have made it out to be).  Using his head was brighter than sitting up and taking hands off the bars.  OK his second move where he blocked Farrar was cynical, but that was essentially what Dean had tried to do to him....
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 16, 2010, 10:07:13 am
Cav did seem pretty gutted when interviewed afterwards didn't he ?
He hardly knew what to say.
I guess that's why I quite like him - cos he's not a PR trained platitude delivering automoton
and... he's pretty fucking good at riding a bike extremely fast
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: squeek on July 16, 2010, 12:16:36 pm
well...what the fuck was renshaw up to this afternoon? does that by default put cav out of the tour too?

Lets see how he did without Renshaw in 2008:

"On the road, Cavendish won his first stages of a grand tour, by picking two victories in the 2008 Giro d'Italia.[26]  Cavendish won four further stages in the 2008 Tour de France, his first coming in stage 5 from Cholet to Châteauroux.[27]  He won again on stage 8, stage 12 and Stage 13, making him the first British rider to collect four stages in a single Tour."

Shouldn't be too bad.  Won't he just sit on Pettachi's wheel/leadout and then (try to) beat him in the sprint?

headbutting was okay IMHO, but the swerve was dangerous, could have easily caused a crash into the barriers.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 16, 2010, 12:31:33 pm
 :agree:

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: stevej on July 16, 2010, 12:41:02 pm
Video of the headbutt + swerve here: http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/1040 (http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/1040)  (pinched from Mark Twight's twitter)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: nash1 on July 19, 2010, 04:49:28 pm
Total lack of class and respect from AC today. I really hope he gets battered on Thursday. Not impressed  :thumbsdown:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: clm on July 19, 2010, 05:13:17 pm
Fuck off.  This kind of crap is all over the cycling forums.  Shrek is only up on AC because of AC getting tied up in other Shreks crash and a broken spoke on the cobbles - mechanical?  Did Shrek wait for Chavanel when he had mechanicals or attack - hard? Don't forget that Shrek would be 6 mins or so down if Spartacus hadn't nullified the stage for him in the Ardennes.  There seems to be a lot of Bertie hatred around.

Plus, it wasn't a mechanical. It was a fluffed gear shift - amateurish.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Percy B on July 19, 2010, 08:25:37 pm
Coupled with the fact that Shrek hasn't got a chain catcher fitted on his bike (probably to save the 20 grams it will add to his bike) which are pretty standard on all pros bike nowadays and prevent you from dumping your chain at an inopportune moment.

I can understand he's pretty pissed, so lets hope he uses the anger and smashes Contador in over the next 2 stages, as opposed to just giving up like a loser. All this sportsmanship deal is OK in small doses, but if everyone is super nice to everybody else all the time, no-one will be allowed to win in case they hurt someone elses feelings...... Let's not turn bike racing into a non-competitive sport now.

On a different note, I notice that Tyler Farrah has finally thrown in the towel after busting his wrist on stage 2 and continuing to ride the next 10 stages (including all the alpine stages)... Hard as nails!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 19, 2010, 10:43:38 pm
What a stage next tho -I can hardly wait. Those hills are fookin massive. I've ridden the Col d'Aspin (which is only Cat 1) and it was nails and driven up the Tourmalet - which was hard to drive up.
AS has got to go for it - even tho he might lose it on the descent. What else can he do ?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: butters on July 20, 2010, 12:23:39 pm
You get the feeling that Nicolas Roche is just a little bit pissed off (http://fwd4.me/XfD) with Gadret?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 20, 2010, 01:31:01 pm
That's a great read though.
Its good to see professional sportspeople telling it like it is
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 20, 2010, 10:59:24 pm
It was all a bit disappointing today wasn't it ?
Hardest stage of the tour on paper but the downhill/flat last 60 k spoiled it as a race.
At least there's a finish on top of the Tourmalet on Thursday which should hopefully mean that Schlek will attack and we'll get some good racing
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 21, 2010, 09:24:34 am
Toe clip waddage from Jens Voigt  (http://www.bicycling.com/tour-de-france/tour-features/saying-no-sag-wagon)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: robertostallioni on July 21, 2010, 09:33:48 am
Thats great!
(http://www.bicycling.com/sites/default/files/images/TDF10_stg16_voigt.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 21, 2010, 09:35:39 am
Toe clip waddage from Jens Voigt  (http://www.bicycling.com/tour-de-france/tour-features/saying-no-sag-wagon)

That one and the Roche article are brilliant.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 21, 2010, 10:56:38 am
(http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/tdf2010_07_16/t20_24260499.jpg)

More bangers here from The Big Picture (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/07/2010_tour_de_france_-_part_i.html).
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Percy B on July 21, 2010, 09:32:35 pm
Thats great!
(http://www.bicycling.com/sites/default/files/images/TDF10_stg16_voigt.jpg)

Jens Voigt is my hero.

http://www.bigringriding.com/post/707584392/chuck (http://www.bigringriding.com/post/707584392/chuck)

Watching the insane turn on the front he did for Shrek the other day just confirms the suspicions highlighted in the link above. Jens is basically prepared to ride until he dies for his team leader. He is the man, and is apparently impervious to pain  :bow:

The bigringriding blog is worth a look anyway if you're into road racing and like a laugh - a treasure trove of spicy goings-ons

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 21, 2010, 11:07:33 pm
Jens Voigt is doing nothing to alleviate my suspicions that all cyclists are grade-A fruitcakes

Quote
I'm doing 70 kilometres an hour on the first descent when my front tyre explodes," explained Voigt. "Before I hit the asphalt I actually manage to think that this is going to hurt. Both knees, elbows, hands, shoulders and the entire left side of my body were severely hurt.

My ribs are hurting but hey, broken ribs are overrated anyway. Fortunately, I didn't land on my face this time and I'm still alive. I was offered a ride on the truck that picks up abandoned riders but I'm not going to quit another Tour de France.

"Now, there's a rest day and Paris is not that far away.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: jfw on July 22, 2010, 09:49:15 am
 :bounce: can't wait til todays stage 2:41 to go  :bounce:

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 22, 2010, 09:52:03 am
pissing it down in pau this morning according to armstrong's twitter. should be good...!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Percy B on July 23, 2010, 09:10:19 pm
cav = slow.

Are you going to have him a race?

errr. slower than other pro tour sprinters i should have said.

So, we're nearing the end of the Tour - any change in your assessments as to Cav's slowness yet, Chappers? I reckon 4 stage wins, the last of which was won by a long way without the assistance of a lead out train.... Cav is undoubtedly the fastest sprinter in the pro-peleton at the moment.

£5 bet for a win on the Champs-Elysees?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tlr on July 25, 2010, 07:49:47 pm
Cav's accleration at the end of that was savage. Unbelievable.

Any one got a hat Chappers can eat?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 25, 2010, 09:09:41 pm
just got back from france...

hand me all your hats, looks like i have to eat the lot. the guy is amazing.

pics soon...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 25, 2010, 09:15:41 pm
trying to get back on as contador attacked to take the yellow jersey.
(http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j272/the_third_eye/IMG_0050.jpg)

wiggo (dont really know what to say here...not doing so good...)
(http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j272/the_third_eye/IMG_0053.jpg)

cav on the same climb - note his podge belly. as i said before, ill eat my words, fast as fuck.
(http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j272/the_third_eye/IMG_0060.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 25, 2010, 09:20:05 pm
the ITV commentary was incredible at the finish: "is hushovd going to cause the shock of the day? Where is Cavendish?!" (Cav zips past in the background like hushovd is stood still).

He might not have the green jersey, but there's no doubt who the best sprinter is.

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 25, 2010, 10:39:55 pm
Cav is unbelievably good isn't he ?
Has anyone noticed how desparate AC is to get Schlek's OK for the victory ? He's very tactile/matey which has increased since "that stage"
IMO he's looking for for Schlek's approval or absolution from the bad thing he thinks he did
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 26, 2010, 07:57:38 am
what i find incredible about cav...in the early stages he really didnt look like he had the legs. then the winning started, but he took a huge knock by losing renshaw and he still managed to outclass the rest of the field.
he showed at milan san remo that he can sprint without a lead out, but after their dominance at the 2009 tour i (wrongly) thought he had become a one trick pony. those later stages its incredible to see him battle for the wins alone.

amazing. he is with no doubt the fastest in the field.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 26, 2010, 09:31:24 am
I loved that clip when he was smiling and whipping his boys along in front. Obviously enjoyed himself this time after the first few days.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 26, 2010, 12:47:38 pm
(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/7/25/1280087173395/Mark-Cavendish-sprints-cl-035.jpg)

"I am at least 5 times faster than the rest of you"

Like this one too:

(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/7/25/1280087157267/Bradley-Wiggins-021.jpg)

All from Guardian.  (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/gallery/2010/jul/22/tour-de-france-2010-paris)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: squeek on July 26, 2010, 01:18:09 pm
amazing. he is with no doubt the fastest in the field.

I think they should have given a time difference between him and 2nd yesterday.  :)  Also liked the commentary:
"Cav looked like he could have gone sooner there too."

Did you get much cycling done chappers?
"Yes, it's lucky for the other riders he didn't or else he would have finished even more bike lengths in front"
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 26, 2010, 03:05:30 pm
yeah, did a fair bit...but i was ill and we suffered a few days bad weather.

did do a 180km day over the aspin, tourmalet and the col de coup. mega.  the last 7km of the tourmalet were in the cloud and really cold on the decent, but an amazing day in the saddle.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 26, 2010, 03:15:01 pm
Which side did you go up the Tourmalet from Chappers ?
How did you find the narrowing road at the top ? (I haven't done it BTW am just curious)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 26, 2010, 03:26:39 pm
we rode up the side with the ski station of la mongie> which i guess is the east?? the way the tour did it when they finished in pau. The col is steady away until 4km to go then it gets wildly steep - which is not ideal after riding uphill for 18km or so!!

there are lamas up there though.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 26, 2010, 03:29:47 pm
That last bit just looks mad. I drove up it thinking it looked enough to wipe you out if you didn't have anything in the tank.
Chapeau for doing it tho'
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 26, 2010, 06:25:21 pm
More bangers from the big picture (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/07/2010_tour_de_france_-_part_ii.html)

(http://akmcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/tdf2010_07_26/t07_24361161.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on July 27, 2010, 01:57:34 pm
What is going on with Fabien's calves here? Looks like scars up the back of each...

(http://akmcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/tdf2010_07_26/t32_24431381.jpg)

Must be where they put the pistons in.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 27, 2010, 03:18:15 pm
so thats where they hid the motors not on the bike.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 28, 2010, 08:16:37 am
i like the bionic man idea but i assume it is the seams from leg warmers worn whilst warming up?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 28, 2010, 08:27:41 am
(http://akmcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/tdf2010_07_26/t08_24360813.jpg)

i like this one best. Vino for me was amazing this tour, great to watch just how tough someone can be. And Daniel Nevvaro, watching him bury himself on the climbs for contador was an inspiration. Everyone said that contador had a weak team, but so wrong, when schleck dropped his chain only contador had a rider with him - Vino!!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Percy B on July 28, 2010, 09:37:32 pm
But Vino is mental (attacking his team leader in the tour?!), and I can't forgive him for doping. Give me Jens Voigt over Vino any day of the week. Jens is older than me but I'll bet a large sum of cash that he rides the tour again next year at the age of 40, and still buries himself for his team leader whilst the rest of the team are back crying at the team car. If you require further proof, Here's an interview with Jens after this years massive crash...

Tour De France 2010 - Funny interview with Jens Voigt after his crash on stage 16 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfiBbZJTx9s#ws)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 29, 2010, 10:05:06 am
ill give you that one percy, watching him ride up the aspin holding onto the broom wagon refusing to get in, covered in blood was quite amazing.

i loved the 2008 tour interview in paris: (no seat on his bike).
"what happened to your saddle yens?"
"it fell off" - totally deadpan.

I dont want to get into a doping debate but there are plenty of riders who have been forgiven, yet vino still gets loads of shit off the press - i guess you need to give a hollow apology to get the media back on your side which he refuses to do...as for attacking contador, i think that "mental streak" is what i like, i just imagine his typical soviet block voice saying "i must win race".

i am pretty psyched by the news of contador leaving astana and taking "the spanish block" with him. and rumored to ride alongside cancellara under riis! what a team this could be, classics and grand tours. contador has stated that he wants to ride two tours next year too.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: jfw on August 03, 2010, 11:04:39 am
What is going on with Fabien's calves here? Looks like scars up the back of each...

Must be where they put the pistons in.

if he's about to start, is it not just seams from his warm up tights?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on August 03, 2010, 02:13:18 pm

i am pretty psyched by the news of contador leaving astana and taking "the spanish block" with him. and rumored to ride alongside cancellara under riis! what a team this could be, classics and grand tours. contador has stated that he wants to ride two tours next year too.

Word is that Bertie and Riis are talking about going for all three Grand Tours in 2012.

Given how every single one of the big-name riders who did the Giro completely collapsed during the Tour (OK, apart from Vino but he's not a man - he's a piece of iron...) that looks like crazy talk.

But if anyone can do it, why not Bertie-boy?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on September 30, 2010, 10:03:14 am
Contador dope shocker:


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11441045 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11441045)

Sad. I'm pretty sure you cant get clenbuterol in food though.
Not really a suprise either, whole Astana team banned 2008 for doping.
2009 He blows away Cancellara in the time trial.  :spank:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: stevej on September 30, 2010, 10:19:42 am
Contador dope shocker:

Sad. I'm pretty sure you cant get clenbuterol in food though.

To put the BBC science to shame (yep, def. no capitals deserved there, I had to do a bit of looking to convert "a concentration of 50 picograms" into something that wasn't GSCE-FAIL-science) and put the numbers into perspective I reckon you can get 0.000000000005g/ml of anything you want to find. If I've got the numbers right, that's roughly equivalent to them detecting 1/123,000 of a dose of ibuprofen in my body assuming it all gets equally spread through everything.

[50e-12 g/ml, 65kg body is ~65e3 ml, g of clenbuterol in whole body is 50e-12*65e3=3.25e-6g, fraction of a 400mg dose of ibuprofen is 3.25e-6/400e-3 = 123e3] Right this time?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on September 30, 2010, 10:28:16 am
It says the amount is 400 times less that the detection limits the labs have to meet, so I assume this concentration will be below whatever guideline they work to.  From this article http://www.iol.co.za/sport/cycling/contador-blames-food-poisoning-1.682573 (http://www.iol.co.za/sport/cycling/contador-blames-food-poisoning-1.682573)  they seem to be talking about food tampering rather than a natural occurrence?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: stevej on September 30, 2010, 10:39:05 am
To shit on that previous science,

Quote from: JJL@UKC
Prescription clenbuterol is around 40 micrograms/day and the half life is about a day and a half (http://www.ukclimbing.com/forums/t.php?n=427391)
Sounds like if you could take a supplement at a concentration hundreds of times lower than previously could be detected by labs then we might see a few more cropping up.

Judgement=reserved...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on September 30, 2010, 10:42:35 am
Fair enough. I'm not sure why the UCI have suspended him then though if it is beneath the 'dodgy' level?
At the end of the day, his whole team being baned 2008 for dope, and this now: smoke - fire.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: stevej on September 30, 2010, 10:53:14 am
They don't have a 'dodgy' line, it's not a natural substance and there's assumed to be no way an athlete can get it in their bloodstream without foul play or contamination of some kind. Sounds like the 400x thing is a bit of a red herring, that's the minimum accuracy for a lab to be certificated to deal with piss samples rather than either the minimum accuracy that they can either do anyone for, or the accuracy that their equipment is judged to be.

The drugs labs always seem to be way behind the cheats (genuinely pointing no fingers here, hope it turns out some nasty bastard is sneaking around sprinkling stuff on food) so any way they can get an edge seems to stay under their hats until they catch a winner. Wouldn't be surprised even if they let small-fry go that they detect with new tech to try and lure everyone into a false sense of security and net the big ones.

Hmm, don't think I've ever used that many fishing-related clichés in the same plaice before.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on September 30, 2010, 10:55:47 am
I was simply trying to make the point that if they were testing to the prescribed detection limit, the results would have been <20 ng/l (for example of urine, rather than blood as it says in UKC) rather than a detected amount and as such would have counted as a negative test. 
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on September 30, 2010, 11:53:05 am
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/sport-headlines/tour-de-france-bans-terry%11thomas-201009303129/ (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/sport-headlines/tour-de-france-bans-terry%11thomas-201009303129/)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on September 30, 2010, 01:03:07 pm
Crikey, Contador, Mosquera, Dapena and possibly Ricco in the same day.

For Contador, there is precedent for Clenbuterol being present in beef - apparently unscrupulous farmers can use it to (illegally) increase growth rates in cattle.

He's saying that he (and only he, from the whole team) ate steak from Spain on the day in question.

Given that the amounts are tiny (too tiny to actually have any benefit I think?) this is actually quite plausible.

Suspicious folk on other websites have already suggested that an alternative to this is that AC has been using Clenbuterol as a weight-loss aid during the off-season, stored some of his own blood a day or two earlier than intended and then had a small re-transfusion, which would have topped him up, not just with his own red blood cells, but with traces of clenbutrerol too.

The only way he can prove his explanation is to trace the beef... not easy.

The day in question was the second rest day - just before the key Tourmalet stage.

Given that this is a confirmed positive, I get the impression that the best he can hope for is being stripped of this years TdF win, and a one year ban.

Sucks to be Bjarne right now!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on September 30, 2010, 01:06:57 pm
Was his food spiked by jealous locals out to discredit him?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on September 30, 2010, 01:48:47 pm
Jealous Americans maybe...

... the French know that they don't have any GT winners amongst their ranks.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on September 30, 2010, 09:15:05 pm
And veulta runner up Ezequiel Mosquera and his teammate David Garcia Da Pena have been caught as well.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: JonI on October 01, 2010, 02:34:17 pm
Good article with more info about clenbuterol and the ins and outs of anti-doping legislation here...

http://bicycling.com/blogs/boulderreport/2010/09/30/contador-case-means-hard-choices-for-anti-doping/ (http://bicycling.com/blogs/boulderreport/2010/09/30/contador-case-means-hard-choices-for-anti-doping/)

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 28, 2011, 12:28:05 pm
Well I guess it's time to nail my colours to the mast and see how stupid I can look in 3 weeks time.

This year I am going for:

1. Contador
2. A Schleck
3. Evans
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Leipheimer
6. Wiggins
7. Gesink
8. S Sanchez
9. Horner
10 Menchov
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Danger on June 28, 2011, 10:46:23 pm
1) Contador
2) Schleck
3) Evans
4) Horner
5) Wiggins
6) Van den Broeck
7) Gesink
8  Sammy Sanchez
9) Vinokourov
10) Cunego


This year I am going for:
10 Menchov

He isn't riding. Geox didn't get an invite.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 29, 2011, 09:20:25 am
This year I am going for:
10 Menchov

He isn't riding. Geox didn't get an invite.

Ah yes, of course. Probably a good thing.

In that case in 10th I'm undecided between Vande Velde, Hysedal or some random Spaniard, but I'm going to go for Vande Velde just because I'd like to see him have some good luck again and get back to his best.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on June 29, 2011, 09:39:56 am
1) Contador
2) Schleck
3) Evans
4) Horner
5) Wiggins
6) Van den Broeck
7) Gesink
8  Sammy Sanchez
9) Vinokourov
10) Cunego


This year I am going for:
10 Menchov

He isn't riding. Geox didn't get an invite.

I find it quite depressing how in this recent effort to 'clean up cycling', Contador dopes and yet is still riding TdF 1 year later. I know the political reasons ya ya, but it's a preety shit message to send out.
Anyways I think Andy Schleck will get it this year, Contador should be knackered. Evans is getting to old for the podium.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on June 30, 2011, 09:06:33 am
From l'Equipe, who the various managers/DSs think will win:

Quote
AG2R-La Mondiale - Vicent Lavenu:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Evans

Astana - Giuseppe Martinelli:
1. Contador

BMC - John Lelangue:
1. Evans;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Gesink

Cofidis - Eric Boyer:
1. Contador;
2. Frank Schleck;
3. Basso

Europcar - Jean René Bernaudeau:
1. Contador;
2. Evans;
3. Kern

Euskaltel-Euskadi - Igor González de Galdeano
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Samuel Sánchez

FDJ - Thierry Bricaut:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Evans

Garmin-Cervélo - Lionel Marie:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Evans

HTC-Highroad - Valerio Piva:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Van den Broeck

Katusha - Andrei Tchmil:
1 Andy Schleck;
2. Contador;
3. Vinokourov

Lampre-ISD - Orlando Maini:
1. Contador;
 2. Andy Schleck;
3. Evans

Leopard-Trek - Kim Andersen:
1 Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Frank Schleck

Liquigas-Cannondale - Stefano Zanatta:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Basso

Movistar - Yvon Ledanois:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck:
3. Samuel Sánchez o Kloden

Omega Pharma-Lotto - Marc Sergeant:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Van den Broeck

Quick Step - Patrick Lefevere:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck:
3. Gesink

Rabobank - Erik Breukink:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Gesink

RadioShack - Alain Gallopin:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck;
3. Gesink

Saur-Sojasun - Stephane Heulot:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Shcleck;
3. Gesink

Saxo Bank-SunGard - Bradley McGee:
1. Contador

Sky - Dave Brailsford:
1. Contador;
2. Andy Schleck

Vacansoleil - Michel Cornelisse:
1. Andy Schleck;
2. Contador;
3. Gesink

Nice to see that Brailsford is being diplomatic, Tchmil has more confidence in Andy Schleck than Kim Anderson does and that John Lelangue is apparently smoking crack (not even a podium for Contador!)

My predictions:
Contador will win (even if he's tired from the Giro, he is with Riis - if Andy Schleck had listened to Riis last year, he might have won)
Andy Schleck will lose big chunks of time from bad luck/mechanical ineptitude/waiting for Fränk
Wiggins will hold it together in the Pyrenees but crack in the Alps (but still finish top ten)
Evans will do really well, but blow his chances with a huge, magnificent and totally mis-timed attack
Christophe Kern for top 5

Green jersey for Cav or Hushovd, depending on how many intermediate sprints Hushovd gets.

KOM could be interesting. Gadret? Cunego if he slips down the GC? Don't think Chartreau will be able to get it again.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Plattsy on June 30, 2011, 09:29:40 am
Have I missed something and Evans has improved a lot recently? Wiggins beat him in the Dauphine.

Contador will win a race he shouldn't start. Schleck will push him but it will be all in vain. Wiggins is in good form and should make top 5 and take a TT stage.

Cav for green. I hope.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tunaficiency on June 30, 2011, 09:57:22 am
andy lost about 18 minutes in tour of switzerland. top 5 maybe but his confidence must be rock bottom. Wiggins is the man on form, team sky might be able to beat astana
in the ttt looking strong recently. ill stick my neck out and say 1 contador 2 wiggins
3 frank scleck 4 andy schleck 5 evans
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on June 30, 2011, 10:00:26 am
Evans and Schleck both looked a bit shakey in the Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse respectively (as did Basso)

However, this is said to be because they're aiming to peak for the Tour (and more precisely the 2nd and 3rd weeks). Evans has actually had quite a good season so far, not many racing days but a couple of good wins.

There are some comments that Wiggo has peaked too early.

Cynics may also refer to the "Dauphiné effect" where riders are performing below their best because they have been filling up blood bags to be used in the later stages of the TdF. I seriously doubt that this is the case with Evans.

There's also a rumour that DefLeppardTrek will announce a new sponsor just before the Tour - Starbucks Coffee.

This will make them StarTrek. And put green on their shirts to continue the Sky/Leopard lookalikes game.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 30, 2011, 10:38:32 am
andy lost about 18 minutes in tour of switzerland. top 5 maybe but his confidence must be rock bottom.

Andy wasn't riding for GC at Tour of Switzerland. He was supporting Frank and Fuglsang, assumably because they will be supporting him at the Tour.



I'm also thinking Gadret for K.o.M
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on June 30, 2011, 10:45:44 am
The whole contador thing makes it a bit of a farce in many ways. I'm no cycling follower, but like catching up on the tour highlights every night.. but this just makes it daft.. Will everyone ride just ignoring Contador, treating him as a busted flush?

Sadly the most interesting predictions may be on what day the first +ve drugs test emerges... :/

Anyway, hoping Cav lights things up a bit and is outspoken as usual :)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 01, 2011, 11:50:44 am
TTT - sky.
ITT - cancellara.
cav will win, all of, some of or none of the following stages: 3, 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, 21.
yellow - contador.  :no:

wiggins top 10.

there will be amazing support riding by dani navvaro which will be the highlight of the tour for me, just a shame who it will be in support of.
philipe gilbert will win either stage 4 or 9.


Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 03, 2011, 08:18:52 pm
TTT - sky.
ITT - cancellara.
cav will win, all of, some of or none of the following stages: 3, 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, 21.
yellow - contador.  :no:  now im like this:  ;D lets hope it lasts!

wiggins top 10.

there will be amazing support riding by dani navvaro which will be the highlight of the tour for me, just a shame who it will be in support of.
philipe gilbert will win either stage 4 or 9. errr or stage 1, didnt look at the profile of that one!!!!!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 08, 2011, 04:25:04 pm
Wiggins out, had looks like it might be a collar bone. Lot's of riders in the crash.
Nightmare, a day before they start to hit some hills.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mark s on July 09, 2011, 11:02:04 am
Good article with more info about clenbuterol and the ins and outs of anti-doping legislation here...

http://bicycling.com/blogs/boulderreport/2010/09/30/contador-case-means-hard-choices-for-anti-doping/ (http://bicycling.com/blogs/boulderreport/2010/09/30/contador-case-means-hard-choices-for-anti-doping/)

i though clen was used for loosing a few pounds,suppose drugs have more than 1 effect on the body
http://www.steroid-supermarket.co.uk/product-clenbuterol.html (http://www.steroid-supermarket.co.uk/product-clenbuterol.html)

personally, i have no prob with ped's in the tour.if i was expected to do what is possibly the hardest sport on the body.i would want everything i could get my hands on
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Percy B on July 10, 2011, 10:00:39 pm
(http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/stage-9/photos/181777/)

Thats what a trip through a barbed wire fence will do to your shorts/arse. Johnny Hoogerland (who's arse it is) finished the stage, collected his king of the mountains jersey, then was taken off to hospital for 30-odd stiches. And all cos he got knocked off by a TV car.... French driving..! ::)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: peewee on July 11, 2011, 12:37:10 am
The rider from SKY took a fair tumble on the road too, wasn't just a slight knock either. must of had a grudge against one of the riders.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: gingerninja on July 11, 2011, 09:55:41 am
it was carnage. did you see vinocourov fall and brake his femur. there have been loads of bad falls and its only a week in.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 11, 2011, 02:50:02 pm
Le tour has been mad this year - with all the main contendors hitting the deck.

I'll got mad at the camera car - get wipped out due to no fault of your own and end up way down the pack.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 11, 2011, 10:41:31 pm
more injuries than a week DH in les Gets  :smart:

sad to see the big bad boy Vino crash out of his last grand tour.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 12, 2011, 08:44:07 am
im gutted about Vino, he is often such a decisive rider, look at the stage before, he blew that up nicely just to fade on the finish line!

i dont think there are more crashes, just more serious ones, and to the main GC contenders.

i feel for the two hit by the car, that break won the day and either of them could have been stage winner.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 12, 2011, 12:37:48 pm
Well, so far my predictions have been almost entirely wrong (Gadret not recovered from the Giro, Kern and Wiggins out, Evans holding it together really well)

Contador looks shakey, but Andy Schleck clearly hasn't noticed as he's been too busy staying exactly 2.75mm from his rear wheel.

The GC battle will really light up this Friday. Contador has been saying that he's not planning on taking big chunks of time in the Pyrenees (maybe because he's already knackered?) so who's going to go for it? Will the Schlecks finally realise that you're allowed to attack? Will Evans try to take yellow? Will Basso and Cunego show what they've got?

I strongly suspect that the Gilbertron will take green all the way to Paris (sorry Cav).
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 13, 2011, 11:11:49 pm
hear what you say for the GC.

Cav however....

do it mate!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 14, 2011, 10:10:03 am
Think today might be the start of the real fight for the GC. Hoping that either of the Schleck bros takes loads of time out of Bertie C
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 14, 2011, 10:30:48 pm
looks like baby Schleck is on it....

conti .... doomed...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 14, 2011, 11:24:03 pm
Good.
He's to cycling what Woods is to Golf.
A miserable fucking self important prima donna
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 15, 2011, 08:47:10 am
Frank is older is he not?

loved that yesterday as the other favorites rounded the last corner and contador was dropped.

come on Cadel!!!!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 15, 2011, 12:30:42 pm
That Welsh kid - Gerraint Thomas looks like he may have a good future - when he stops going for the direct approach to coming off the mountain.

Why don't the UCI just put Contador out of his misery and ban him???
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 15, 2011, 06:03:47 pm
Frank is older is he not?

loved that yesterday as the other favorites rounded the last corner and contador was dropped.

come on Cadel!!!!!
baby as in ranking...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tlr on July 15, 2011, 07:09:55 pm
Well boys, I'm sat on the boat to Rotterdam before driving down to alpe d'huez for a weeks road riding and tour watching. I'll get to climb alp d'huez at the end of every ride, so I'll see if I can get up it in under an hour. I don't think Pantani's record is under threat....

Look out for me on t' telly, I'll be the one NOT running round in my underpants.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 15, 2011, 10:02:16 pm
you fit man you...

seriously mate... go for it!

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: clm on July 20, 2011, 07:06:56 pm
What a pussy Andy schleck is! How do you get so good at going up and end up so shut at going down?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 20, 2011, 08:59:44 pm
It's the moaning about the descents I can't believe. As far as I'm aware LE tour has always had stages that go up and down mountains. Maybe the Schlek's need to practice going down a bit more. They clearly know that Evans and Contador have more to offer than they do.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 20, 2011, 09:16:33 pm
fuckin gay fuckin roadies.... it's not all about going up hill... you are meant to be able to cycle round the whole of France to win the GC.

to paraphrase  "no one wants to see the tour won on a descent"


yeah? well piss off Schleck....

why the fuck not???

I'm terrified doing 50kph down a big, wet, slippy hill on a road bike.... for all of 4 mins.... do it near twice the speed for up to 15mins...


you bloody deserve to win!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 20, 2011, 09:30:59 pm
So who do I support now?

Schleck x2 - No : Moaning about descents.
Contador - Come on UCi ban him - He clearly has cheated at some point - Last year & caught up in Operation Puerto.
Evans - Looks more grumpy than me.

Tommy Voecler - He's French.
Sanchez - Contador is clearly paying him for assistance.
Cunego - No chance.

So it's either a grumpy Australian or a Frenchie ???
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatdoc on July 20, 2011, 10:34:07 pm
under dog...

on the hill today... suddenly thought.... shit the french bloke can win


until i remembered the time trial.

talk about the tour being won on a descent.... on a time trial.... ffs, now that is dull IMO

cont is probs gonna get there

thankfully... the stage tomorrow will see us all good... the galibier is under snow.

a man's day, wins the tour that day hopefully.


Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 20, 2011, 11:04:33 pm
Tomorrow should be a great stage and quite possibly the decider.
Great bunny hop skills from TV today though
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Fultonius on July 20, 2011, 11:42:32 pm
I wish remy absalon would take up road racing and show them how it's done! Bunch of pansies!

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on July 21, 2011, 10:10:09 am
I wish remy absalon would take up road racing and show them how it's done! Bunch of pansies!

Don't brand them all with the pixie (Schleck) brush - Thor 112km/hr:

http://www.roadcycling.com/articles/World-Champion-Thor-Hushovd-Brings-Great-Thunder-to-Pyrenees-Winning-Stage-13-of-Tour-de-France-2011_004462.shtml (ftp://www.roadcycling.com/articles/World-Champion-Thor-Hushovd-Brings-Great-Thunder-to-Pyrenees-Winning-Stage-13-of-Tour-de-France-2011_004462.shtml) ;D
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: El Mocho on July 21, 2011, 07:33:57 pm
Schlek the younger finally manned up today and stopped looking over his shoulder, also went for it pretty hard on the descent to - perhaps all the wimping about descents was a ploy.

Schlek the older looked pretty happy sat with all the other GCs and took a little gap at the end.

Should be good tomorrow as I feel A.S. will want more than the 1 min he has over Cadel, but Cadel would prob want it to be less than 1 min before the TT so both could be after a move. Frank could be itching for some time after taking it easy today and if Bertie wants the GC he will have to do something pretty special - hope he is having a big steak tonight.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on July 21, 2011, 09:35:38 pm
I love Cadel, and i would love to see him win the tour.

but...today Andy Schlek stepped up as a worthy winner.

Its coming together for an epic stage tomorrow on the 'alp, then hopefully Cadel will win the GC by a few seconds on saturday...then cav will win green and the stage on sunday.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Fultonius on July 21, 2011, 09:55:17 pm
I'm not all that fussed about Evans either way, but damn, that was some gear he was churning on that chase!  :bow:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: robertostallioni on July 21, 2011, 10:04:33 pm
I was wondering why they left it so late to reduce the gap, but it was explained afterwards that if Evans et al caught Andy S with kms left, they expected Frank S to lay one on straight away, after sitting on the wheel 'til then. Interesting stuff all round.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 22, 2011, 10:01:56 am
Was a great stage yesterday.
Makes today's stage extremely interesting. I wonder if Andy will have the legs for another tough day after how he rode yesterday ?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: schloosh on July 22, 2011, 10:07:43 am
More of the same today hopefully.
Schlandy can win it today with another massive effort, Contador has cracked and only pride and a monster Armstrongesque attack can keep him in the running. Cadel will potter up the hill as normal, always so close but just not good enough, and lose too much time to win in the time trial.
Could be some fireworks from Frank....
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: nash1 on July 22, 2011, 11:01:22 am
A very cool Tour. The final proper stage and we are still totally unsure who's gonna come out on top. Damn even Voekler is still there. Andy, Frank, Cadel, Contador or Voekler?

I am going for Cadel to win on Sunday...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: nai on July 23, 2011, 07:50:33 am
How HTC put Cav In position:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jul/22/mark-cavendish-htc-sprint-train?CMP=twt_gu (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jul/22/mark-cavendish-htc-sprint-train?CMP=twt_gu)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: DaveC on July 24, 2011, 12:14:39 am
An Australian to win yellow, a Brit to win green, should be a happy day but somehow it all seems rather unimportant...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: peewee on July 24, 2011, 01:21:38 am
An Australian to win yellow, a Brit to win green, should be a happy day but somehow it all seems rather unimportant...

I know the death of Amy Winehouse has come as a shock to us all.  :sorry:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: DaveC on July 24, 2011, 03:20:49 am
(http://www.shredguitars.com/images/smilies/twak.gif)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 25, 2011, 09:38:18 am
This year I am going for:

1. Contador
2. A Schleck
3. Evans
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Leipheimer
6. Wiggins
7. Gesink
8. S Sanchez
9. Horner
10 Vande Velde

Well a small improvement on last year. 4 of my predictions made it into the top ten. These guys should pay me to not tip them.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 25, 2011, 10:14:47 am
Cav amongst the greats:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jul/24/mark-cavendish-tour-de-france?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jul/24/mark-cavendish-tour-de-france?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on July 25, 2011, 11:58:40 am
David Millar has his view.

A British athlete who can actually deliver what he is suppose to.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cycling/14269959.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cycling/14269959.stm)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on July 25, 2011, 12:09:03 pm
[Anyways I think Andy Schleck will get it this year, Contador should be knackered. Evans is getting to old for the podium.

 :spank: I'll get my coat

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: DaveC on July 25, 2011, 01:37:52 pm
The mrs has reminded me how close I came to knocking Mr Evans off his bike in the middle of his home town over here a couple of summers back ... I told her the Schleck's offer wasn't good enough... :whistle:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: peewee on July 25, 2011, 05:03:13 pm
The mrs has reminded me how close I came to knocking Mr Evans off his bike in the middle of his home town over here a couple of summers back ... I told her the Schleck's offer wasn't good enough... :whistle:

What were they offering?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 25, 2011, 05:15:50 pm
First part of the Boston Big picture series

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/07/2011_tour_de_france_part_1.html (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/07/2011_tour_de_france_part_1.html)

(http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/2011_tour_de_france/bp7.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: duncan on August 04, 2011, 08:34:24 pm
HTC-Highroad disbands (http://www.bikeradar.com/news/article/htc-highroad-disbands-after-failed-sponsor-search-31229).  If Cavendish has moved to Sky it will be interesting to see how he fairs.  The HTC lead-out was one of the great sights in sport in the last quarter century. 
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on August 31, 2011, 10:22:11 pm
Due to the Sport news being cluttered up with football, you may have failed to notice that Brad Wiggins is leading La Vuelta, with team-mate Froome in second.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on August 31, 2011, 10:30:27 pm
 :great: Forced work to watch ITV4 this afternoon as I thought he might take red today. Looking really strong and not panicking at others attacks, just dieseling back to up to them. Massive props to Froome for the work he's put in for brad, and still only losing a handful of seconds. His TT on Mon was brilliant too.


Still reckon nibs will prevail in the end tho.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Danger on September 01, 2011, 03:24:23 pm
Still reckon nibs will prevail in the end tho.

Me too, I can't see Nibali not taking at least 11 seconds on the Anglirú on Sunday
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mrconners on September 05, 2011, 07:45:24 pm
Hmmmm  :-\


Cobo wins without even looking slightly in trouble, also his output was similar to that of Pantani when he destroyed the alp record.


I know all are innocent untill proven guilty, but you have to be a little suspicious.



Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on September 05, 2011, 10:09:54 pm
Was a little worried by how easily he seemed to destroy the field. Still, the Angliru looks awesome, those ramps that brad cracked on toward the end are insane!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on September 12, 2011, 08:53:19 pm
So 2 Brits finish 2nd & 3rd in a Grand Tour. (ADmittedly one was born in Kenya)

2 Brothers from Leeds finish 1st and 2nd in the World Triathlon Championship. (Alastair Brown-Lee - left after one term Cambridge Uni, he was studying medicine, to pursue Triathlon)

And a Welsh girl wins the Women World triathlon championship.

Look on BBC sports website and you'd never know. Why can't this stupid country accept we are shit at football and celebrate these great athletes.

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on September 14, 2011, 10:10:26 am
So 2 Brits finish 2nd & 3rd in a Grand Tour. (ADmittedly one was born in Kenya)


... and the other one was born in Belgium...

Amazing effort from both of them though.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on September 16, 2011, 03:36:18 am
... and the other one was born in Belgium...

to an australian dad...

im so glad that sky have come of age. and proof that wiggins was no one hit wonder. if only he hadn't fallen at the tour, what would he have done??!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on September 23, 2011, 04:35:56 pm
Two more medals at the world road champs.Gold for Lucy Garmer in junior womens road race and bronze for Andrew Fenn in mens under 23 road race.
3rd in medal table 5 medals so far.

However what do we get on the sports news golf for fucks sake.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on September 25, 2011, 05:12:15 pm
And the medal that we've waited 45 years to win again.What a performance by the whole british team and to stick with the game plan depite everyone else knowing.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: gremlin on September 26, 2011, 12:55:36 pm
What a race! The brits performed brilliantly and didn't panick when break went away.
They just stayed on the front and mile after mile while the rest of the teams took a free ride!
It nearly all fell apart at the end but somehow cav found his way through. Amazing!  :bounce:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on September 26, 2011, 03:46:02 pm
Well done Cav and the Team.

I liked David Millar's interview - as big as winning the 1966 world cup!!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on October 10, 2011, 04:53:16 pm
Whooops (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/2012-tour-de-france-route-revealed)

Bit light on the massive mountain days and bit heavier on the TT kilometres.

Looks like Andy S may have missed his chance last year.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on October 18, 2011, 02:36:52 am
made for wiggins that.
shame he will be riding for cav.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: BB on October 18, 2011, 03:03:57 am
made for wiggins that.
shame he will be riding for cav.

But Cav won't be going for a GC win will he? I see no reason why a team can't include contenders for both the green and yellow.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on October 19, 2011, 01:36:38 am
yeah...of course cav won't be going for the gc.   :-\
but he does require a group of riders to chase down breaks and deliver him 200m from the finish line every flat stage (i understand that he still won even after renshaw was ejected), and a group of riders to nurse him over the mountains.

so with that in mind you have to worry that wiggo, who would surely be a key part of the break catch team will have enough energy to get up the mountains the next day with cadel et al. let alone thomas, uran, froom, edvald etc... who will be required to do two jobs, lead out cav and protect wiggo.

at htc cav had an entire team of top flight riders working for him and him alone, can he win with half a team, or a tired team who are busy trying to also win the gc?
(http://www.explanationizer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/HTC-lead-out-train-2.jpg)
no one at htc came close to winning the gc with cav riding - rogers 37th in 2010, VELITS 19th 2011.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on October 19, 2011, 08:16:34 am

at htc cav had an entire team of top flight riders working for him and him alone, can he win with half a team, or a tired team who are busy trying to also win the gc?


I think this is the crux really, surely your GC rider has to come before your sprinter? Perhaps the deal is Cav helps Wiggo into yellow and then Wiggo and the team get Cav a gold medal?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on October 19, 2011, 09:51:20 am
As Dave Brailsford is in charge I'm sure all of this will have been dissected and discussed at length.
I don't think Cav would sacrifice more tour stage wins "just" to get a gold medal would he ?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on October 19, 2011, 10:00:57 am
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/editorial-how-can-sky-accommodate-wiggins-and-cavendish-at-the-tour-de-france (http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/editorial-how-can-sky-accommodate-wiggins-and-cavendish-at-the-tour-de-france)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Yossarian on October 19, 2011, 03:47:38 pm
I was convinced that a Wiggo / Cav pairing at Sky would entail Wiggo actually targeting GC in events other than the Tour - on the basis that Wiggo probably can't win the Tour and thus their energies would be better spent getting Cav stage wins.

Wiggo could then have full team support in the Giro / Vuelta / Dauphine, etc.

But now the Tour is so tester-friendly, my theory has gone to shit.

Changing the subject slightly, are any of you guys riding any Euro sportives next year?  I'm quite keen to do the Marmotte again, and maybe the GF Sportful...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fatkid2000 on October 19, 2011, 07:26:58 pm
Yoss - I think you're right. Le tour route is probably the best chance Wiggo has of getting on the podium and if goes well perhaps better.

Wiggo rode incredibly well to get Cav the rainbow jersey - I doubt there will be course again that will suit Cav so well to win the world title. Likewise perhaps next year is Wiggo's chance in le tour.

Perhaps Cav's ambitions off retaining Green will have to go on the back burner - and he'll have to let Wiggo go for GC. The only problem is Cav's ego in the mix.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: BB on October 20, 2011, 03:44:41 am
What difference will it make if Cav has one less man in his lead out? Everyone will gets the same time on the sprint stages provided you don't mess up outside the final 3km. As to the team supporting Wiggo in the mountains, how many of last years top contenders had team mates supporting them on the big days?

Who from sky supported Wiggo on the hills in 2010?

It's all moot anyway. In the end it'll probably all boil down to sponsor exposure. Unless Wiggo finishes in the top 3, Cav will likely get more cash for the team and exposure from half a dozen stage wins and the points jersey.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on October 20, 2011, 08:54:53 am
What difference will it make if Cav has one less man in his lead out? Everyone will gets the same time on the sprint stages provided you don't mess up outside the final 3km.

Is the difference not that this year HTC put a lot of effort into closing gaps on breakaways that didn't contain any GC contenders on the sprint stages?  You wouldn't put all this effort into stages as a team unless you wanted the stage win, if you were only interested in the GC you could just sit in the peloton as a team on those stages and save a lot of energy.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Plattsy on October 20, 2011, 09:03:41 am
I'm going to throw my uneducated hat into the ring and say Cav will have 1 or 2 guys help out in the sprint/hills and the chasing down of breakaways
will have to be taken up by some other sprint team. Leaving a good 7 or 8 guys to help Wiggo.  :doubt:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Yossarian on October 21, 2011, 03:54:52 pm
I think the point is that HTC secured Cavendish victories on stages that might well have usually been won by breakaway specialists.  He is more than capable of winning stages without a leadout train (or much of them) - his ability to position himself in the final minutes (and seconds) of a stage are unquestionable.

What needs to be remembered though is the fact that HTC chased down so many breakaways to make sure he had a shot at the sprint.  Not to mention major tactical manoeuvres like that crosswind split in Brittany a few years back - that was a major team effort.

Cav might do a Cipo and chuck it in before the hills?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chappers on October 21, 2011, 04:02:28 pm
Who from sky supported Wiggo on the hills in 2010?

exactly. no one. the reason that he finished a disappointing 24th?

who supported him in the vuelta? Froom. the reason he finished an amazing 3rd?

sky spent a good amount of money building an excellent GC team. They have some great quality climbers in there now.
i don't think you really understand the work that htc did, see stub's post, you can't chase breaks, and target gc. contador et al will be sat i the bunch with their feet up with the rest of his team around him "resting" ready for the moments where the race will be won or lost. the mountains and the testing.

Leaving a good 7 or 8 guys to help Wiggo.  :doubt:
there are 9 members of a team.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Danger on October 22, 2011, 10:31:58 pm
Apologies for this post being in no particular order . . .

If GreenEdge get a Pro Tour Licence then they will do plenty of break chasing as their squad consists nearly entirely of sprinters and lead-outs.


Leaving a good 7 or 8 guys to help Wiggo.  :doubt:
there are 9 members of a team.
Maybe not http://inrng.com/?p=5459 (http://inrng.com/?p=5459)


Pretty sure Thomas isn't riding the tour next year as he is focusing on the olympics.

After his poor showing this year people seem to be forgetting about Contador, if he has the same form he had for the Giro this year he will crush everyone. Of course he may be banned.

Changing the subject slightly, are any of you guys riding any Euro sportives next year?  I'm quite keen to do the Marmotte again, and maybe the GF Sportful...

Yes! I am doing Paris - Roubaix

(http://www.tdwsport.com/imagedesk/pic.php?dir=20102828&file=20102828-128093.jpg&small=1&upload=&webshop=true)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on June 27, 2012, 10:30:38 am
It's 2012 !!!

My predictions for this year:

The GC contest will be a Wiggo/Evans grind-a-thon in the mountains with them both doing turbo-diesel paces until it's just them left.

There will be occasional flashes of interest as FrankS, Gesink, Westra, Nibali, Rolland and Van den Broeck attack but only get about 10s.

Final podium will be Evans, Wiggins and one of the above in that order (after Wiggins starts to look ragged in the third week).

Hesjedal and Scarponi will put in a lot of effort, but then realise that they are both still cooked after the Giro.

Greipel will win more sprint stages than Cav. Farrar will be second or third three times. Sagan will win more stages than anyone expects and take the green jersey (and then repeat this every year for the next 10 years).
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on June 27, 2012, 10:46:39 am
No Samu? I'd say he's best of the rest after wiggo/cuddles - can climb well enough to put ime into those two on the uphills, goes down well enough to gain a bit more on Brad, and not a bad TT. Still won't be enough though. Barring crashes etc, Wiggins should take it. Cadel might gain a few seconds on the lumpy stages in the first week and on the downhills, but isn't strong enough on the hills to crack Brad if his form holds, so the TT's will decide. Scarponi and Ryder haven't a prayer. Rolland?  :lol:

Agreed on the sprinters, though I reckon most expect Sagan to win a few stages. Wouldn't suprise me if Cav doesn't finish in order to build for the Olympics.

It's a shit parcours, not coz of the amount of ITT kms, but because there's not enough MTF to balance them.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: dave on June 27, 2012, 11:45:20 am
Any predictions for what's going to emerge as the most popular doping method this year? Is EPO still cool or is it all about blood doping now?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on June 27, 2012, 12:03:08 pm
EPO micro-dosing is apparently in use (widespread or isolated depending on how cynical you're feeling). But there's some doubt as to whether it works or not.

Last year there were a couple of reports about French authorities finding packaging for weight-loss drugs in hotel bins, so I guess it's all SlimFast and monkey blood these days.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: moose on June 27, 2012, 12:08:30 pm
Any predictions for what's going to emerge as the most popular doping method this year? Is EPO still cool or is it all about blood doping now?

Blood doping?! Get wid the program grand-papa... it's all about licking the waxy monkey tree frog nowadays:

http://www.inquisitr.com/258898/frogs-being-used-as-performance-enhancing-drug-in-race-horses/ (http://www.inquisitr.com/258898/frogs-being-used-as-performance-enhancing-drug-in-race-horses/)

By the way, TdF preview podcast on 5Live:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/5lspecials (http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/5lspecials)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 27, 2012, 12:59:00 pm
Definitely agree on the GC predictions. I'd go for:

Wiggins
Evans
Nibali
F Schleck

after that it's hard to know what state any of them are in.

As for green, I think Sagan will win less than expected. He isn't that fast on pure flat stages against a proper sprint train. Matt Goss should have a GreenEdge train to sit on and keep coming 2nd as Cav jumps off his wheel. Griepel will win at least one.

I think Farrah is gone as a sprinter and won't achieve anything. He is in the awkward position of being not as quick as the top sprinters and not Boonen enough for the classics like stages.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: ShortRound on June 27, 2012, 01:05:58 pm

 not Boonen enough for the classics like stages.


He should get some cocaine.

Based on early season performances I think Greipel will be favorite for the pure bunch sprint stages with Cavendish getting more joy on the lumpier-but-still-ending-in-a-bunch-sprint stages based on his weight loss for the Olympics:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cavendish-not-eyeing-tour-de-france-green-jersey (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cavendish-not-eyeing-tour-de-france-green-jersey)

Can't freaking wait for it all to start.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on June 27, 2012, 05:12:50 pm
Sagan seems to have done pretty well so far this year just sitting on other people's trains then breaking off to power to the line, although he hasn't been head to head against Cav and Geipel yet, should be exciting for sure!  Worth checking out https://twitter.com/#!/tweetersagan for a Chuck Norrisesque take on Sagan
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Richie Crouch on July 02, 2012, 07:13:27 pm
Great to see cav get a win on the board after reading some of the doubters on the Bbc feed writing him off in favour of Sagan, greipel, goss..etc and to win zero stages without his lead out train!

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 02, 2012, 07:47:59 pm
Fine finish today, great stuff from Cav to wheel hop all the way up to Greipel given how far back he was at 1km. Sagan's still gonna walk the green jersey tho.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: danm on July 02, 2012, 07:58:54 pm
Probably right about Sagan for the green, as I don't think the green is on Cav's radar this year. I expect he'll go for as many stage wins as he can without burying himself, and without drawing off any team support from Wiggo, whilst hoping to keep fresh and in form for the Olympics.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: erm, sam on July 03, 2012, 07:10:58 pm
Just watching the hightlights from today, what about Cav in the first sprint? Beast!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dolly on July 03, 2012, 10:58:32 pm
Agree, talking whilst overtaking.
Class
Have a look at @tweeterSagan for a gentle but funny pisstake of the new mr bigshot
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mrconners on July 04, 2012, 09:50:45 pm
Just watching the hightlights from today, what about Cav in the first sprint? Beast!


Beast indeed.

What about Griepel in todays sprint. Talk about putting some effort in, the bloke is a monster.
Shame about Sagans celebrations the day before, pillock. But then when I was 22 I was a pillock as well.


Let the madness continue.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 07, 2012, 04:50:57 pm
Dauphine all over again...
Froome very impressive, shame he was held up in one of the crashes a few days ago or sky would have some interesting desicions esp wrt last years vuelta. having said that, wiggins looked fine holding cadel's wheel when he attacked, never out of the saddle. sure he'll reassert authority in the TT on monday as well.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 07, 2012, 08:03:39 pm
I've never watched the Tour before. I'm hooked!

Come on Wiggins!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 09, 2012, 08:55:17 am
Sagan, like a  boss!

Peter Sagan wheeling la Planche des belles filles ! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onamrs8jx2I#)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 22, 2012, 10:11:07 pm
It's 2012 !!!

My predictions for this year:

The GC contest will be a Wiggo/Evans grind-a-thon in the mountains with them both doing turbo-diesel paces until it's just them left.

There will be occasional flashes of interest as FrankS, Gesink, Westra, Nibali, Rolland and Van den Broeck attack but only get about 10s.

Final podium will be Evans, Wiggins and one of the above in that order (after Wiggins starts to look ragged in the third week).

Hesjedal and Scarponi will put in a lot of effort, but then realise that they are both still cooked after the Giro.

Greipel will win more sprint stages than Cav. Farrar will be second or third three times. Sagan will win more stages than anyone expects and take the green jersey (and then repeat this every year for the next 10 years).

I think I got almost everything wrong (apart from Sagan in green and that was pretty safe).

Wanna buy some raffle tickets?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 27, 2013, 09:57:14 am
It's that time of the year again.
This year it feels harder to predict than ever. More of the riders seems to have unknown form. Froome is the only one with a proven good run up to the event, but he has no previous of actually getting the job done.

I am going for a slightly controversial:

Contador
Froome
Evans
Schleck
Valverde
van Garderen
Porte
Rodriguez
Fuglsang
Gesink
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on June 27, 2013, 10:39:23 am
Conti and froome to fight it out. Tj to beat Evans. Schlecklet to struggle to make top ten. I'd like to see Quintana and Costa beat valverde too. Rodriguez should well. Gesink  nowhere. Pinot top ten.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: nash1 on June 27, 2013, 11:33:14 am
Top 5 - in order:
Froomy
Contador
Quintana
Rodriguez
Porte

Froome to win with 90 seconds.

Green: Cav or Sagan? Hmmmm - Cav.

Yellow after first day: Cav (or wil he crash?)
Champs Elysees: Cav

Schleck - rubbish, Evans - will crack, but still in top 10.

Someone will be chucked out for dope...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tregiffian on June 27, 2013, 12:30:17 pm
Pinot is only 23 so Pinot age shouldn`t be  a problem.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on June 27, 2013, 01:00:10 pm
I don't really follow this sport like some do. I have no idea of form.

However I fully expect Contador to dance on his pedals to a firm victory.
Even if fitter, Froome won't know how to tactically deal with the constant, remorseless, lung shredding attacks of Spain's finest cycling drugs mule.

Evans will do OK to start but slowly drop off the back as Delhi Belly sets in. Too many Croque Monsieurs on the rest days.

Sagan will suffer from groin strain, or possibly VD, allowing Cav a relatively uncontested victory.

Voeckler to defend the Polka Dots. WE LOVE YOU, TOMMY!
Voeckler to win on Bastille Day climbing the Ventoux.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on June 27, 2013, 09:40:11 pm
I doubt froome is any cleaner than contador.

INRNG (http://inrng.com/) has a good overview in recent posts, and is a great site in general. He makes a good point re Cav vs Sagan - type of stages, and their position in the race, will prob not give sagan much chance (plus Cav has a great team around him)

who said pinots age will be a problem?

fuck voeckler and his stupid gurning play acting bullshit. hope he pulls out and spares me the pain.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on June 27, 2013, 10:05:26 pm
I'm hoping Ryder and Talansky have good races, so many exciting young guns about at mo!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on June 27, 2013, 10:08:58 pm
No mention of a potential dark horse for GC top ten... Dan Martin. It is certainly not cut and dry that Hesjedal will be there primary focus...

Can't see past Froome on current form and fitness to be honest, but with every other team looking to hurt Sky it will be a tough three weeks.

Contador
Van garderen
Valverde
Rodriguez
Porte

Evans will feel the pace again I suspect....

Hopefully I will witness Cav make it five in Paris in just over three weeks... :)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on June 27, 2013, 11:46:19 pm
Cunt-a-door has been proven to be a drugs cheat. Froomie has just had an increase in form once he's not ill. I'm hoping there's a world of difference! However previous cycling shows that I may just be gullible. However this is as we all know is just the warm up for next year's tour de god's country. 
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on June 28, 2013, 07:44:16 am
. However this is as we all know is just the warm up for next year's tour de god's country.

Well said!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mrconners on June 28, 2013, 08:32:10 am
Cunt-a-door has been proven to be a drugs cheat. Froomie has just had an increase in form once he's not ill. I'm hoping there's a world of difference! However previous cycling shows that I may just be gullible. However this is as we all know is just the warm up for next year's tour de god's country.


Its the "proven" bit that counts. They are all still at it.


However I reckon the Sky machine will put Froome on the top step of the podium. Would love to see Cav get the green.
Mountains? No idea.


Still love the TDF whatever the outcome.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on June 28, 2013, 11:59:51 am
Anyone interested in a TdF fantasy league (or is there a UKB one already)?

http://fantasy.cyclingnews.com/team.aspx (http://fantasy.cyclingnews.com/team.aspx)

League - UKB
Pword - ukbleague999

Free transfer window closes @ 18.00 today
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 28, 2013, 12:40:58 pm
Joined
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sidewinder on June 28, 2013, 12:51:13 pm
joined
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on June 28, 2013, 03:14:27 pm
Joined.

Not done this before. How limited are the transfers once you start, are you supposed to use them to tailor your team to each stage?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 28, 2013, 04:08:59 pm
It says that you get 8 a week to use.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on June 28, 2013, 05:40:00 pm
That'll be the big red 8 I managed to not see.

Thank you
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on June 28, 2013, 06:03:44 pm
Joined.

I've never done one of these fantasy whatsits before and don't really know how the scoring works. I spunked all my money up the wall on Froomey, Contador, Team Sky, Sagan, and some other heros. Had to have some right chaff riding Domestique.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on June 28, 2013, 08:15:06 pm
I have attempted to join. no idea if it worked. do I have to wait for lukeyboy to approve me? since I missed the 1800 time do I not score points for stage 1?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on June 28, 2013, 08:57:00 pm
I think we await approval of the admin. My take on it is that you'll still get points tomorrow but that up until 6 o clock you could piss about with your team as much as possible without affecting your transfers. Now, after 1800, if you want to make changes it'll cost you transfers.

It seems that other fantasy leagues are offering points for intermediate sprints and KOM sections. Is that not the case for the Cycling News one?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on June 29, 2013, 11:14:15 am
Sorry for the delay, I've accepted everyone onto the league now. Duma and Will only 5 mins ago, so you may not show up on the league page for 24 hours or so. But as long as your team is set up then you should still earn points etc.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on June 30, 2013, 08:59:33 am
Is anyone else's team showing any points yet? Or have I fucked  something up? Maybe they're stuck under a finish gantry...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on June 30, 2013, 09:33:10 pm
Now then, since cyclingnews have finally got their arses in gear and updated the points, I think we ought to know who's who - starting with the obvious:
Duma - dumagicians
Will Hunt - Hunts Heroes
sidewinder - Sidewinder
lukeyboy - ??
mr__j5 - ??
iain - ??
?? - ??
?? - ??

Also, ace finish today! love it when they juuuuust hold on.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: schloosh on June 30, 2013, 09:46:28 pm
I am Reasoned Decision
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on July 01, 2013, 08:50:51 am
Also, ace finish today! love it when they juuuuust hold on.

It was great.

I'm nonmamilshere and I'm last!  :strongbench:
Almost chose Kittel too. Transfers  :-\
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 01, 2013, 11:32:38 am
I've joined the league! Can I be approved please ;)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 01, 2013, 11:42:05 am
Tom tom, you're in.

I'm Resplendent yellow.

I'm languishing mid table after my Cav, OPQS team, and bonus first stage strategy didn't go quite as hoped...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 01, 2013, 11:58:47 am
Now then, since cyclingnews have finally got their arses in gear and updated the points, I think we ought to know who's who - starting with the obvious:
Duma - dumagicians
Will Hunt - Hunts Heroes
sidewinder - Sidewinder
lukeyboy - ??
mr__j5 - ??
iain - ??
?? - ??
?? - ??

Also, ace finish today! love it when they juuuuust hold on.

Erm - I shall be obvious once updated.. I (ahem) transferred some of the 'humour' associated with fantasy footy leagues into my name.. hope no-one is offended ;)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: schloosh on July 01, 2013, 12:19:59 pm
I'm languishing mid table after my Cav, OPQS team, and bonus first stage strategy didn't go quite as hoped...

Yup, know the feeling!
Title: Re: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 01, 2013, 01:39:22 pm
So,

Duma - dumagicians
Will Hunt - Hunts Heroes
sidewinder - Sidewinder
lukeyboy - resplendent yellow
mr__j5 - ??
iain - nonmamishere
Schloosh - reasoned decision (great name! )
Tomtom - ??
?? - ??
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 01, 2013, 01:56:37 pm
I'm in.  Exiled Northerners
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 01, 2013, 02:48:36 pm
I am Radioshock.
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 01, 2013, 03:41:26 pm
I'm TomTom's needle bank...   (seemed funny at the time - 8.30 this morning)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 01, 2013, 08:36:28 pm
Don't seem to have any points though....  :shrug:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 01, 2013, 09:59:23 pm
Duma -            dumagicians
Will Hunt -       Hunts Heroes
sidewinder -    Sidewinder
lukeyboy -       Resplendent yellow
mr__j5 -          Radioshock
iain -                nonmamilshere
schloosh -       Reasoned Decision
Tomtom -        TomToms Needlebank
Falling Down - Exiled Northerners
?? -                 Crushing Blow <- own up then!

FD, you need to have submitted by 10am CEST (9am BST) on the day of the stage to score for that stage?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 02, 2013, 11:55:06 am
Where the hell was Voeckler yesterday? The stage was made for his gurning features.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 02, 2013, 12:40:19 pm

?? -                 Crushing Blow <- own up then!


It's me. Although I haven't really got a clue and my stay near the top of the table wont last long.....
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 02, 2013, 12:58:16 pm

FD, you need to have submitted by 10am CEST (9am BST) on the day of the stage to score for that stage?

And as if to prove my own point I just realised this as I started making transfers for today's time trial. Twat.  :wall:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 02, 2013, 01:37:34 pm
Not only that, there's no points anyway for the ttt I think...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 02, 2013, 01:46:08 pm
Quote
Team Time Trial:

No fantasy points are scored for any riders or cycling teams in Team Time Trial stage.

You are correct. Why is that then?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 02, 2013, 01:49:14 pm
Dunno, seems a bit shit to me
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 03, 2013, 04:37:02 pm
Nice work Cav!  :2thumbsup:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: crimp on July 03, 2013, 05:01:49 pm
I was going to join this funfest. But i couldn't decide whether to be Team Human Growth Hormone, Team Hyperoxygenated Blood Transfusion, or Team EPO.

Plus, i just can't be assed!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 03, 2013, 11:09:57 pm
I do like how happy he is after every win ;D
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 04, 2013, 07:58:03 pm
I loved the bit in the interview yesterday where Cav said he started the last climb and then remembered he'd ridden it once in some event fucking years ago so knew exactly what to do. Matter of fact encyclopedic beta mind. Genius.

Is anyone else having trouble looking at the fantasy site from their phone? I can only get a wank mobile version whichever browser I use and despite telling it to view the desktop site. Really annoying.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 04, 2013, 10:22:56 pm
yeah it's shit on my phone too.

also, how come the team scores update straight after the stage but the league takes till about midnight?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 04, 2013, 10:34:18 pm
I reckon this Cycling News one is shit. No points for KOM!
That said, I have no idea whether others are better.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 05, 2013, 08:50:39 am
Yeah, I have to agree. I'm afraid I didn't do extensive research before starting the league, it was a bit of a spur of the moment thing. Not sure what others are available...

However I think their text updates (http://live.cyclingnews.com/) during the race are pretty good, if anyone has found a better site please let me know!

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on July 05, 2013, 09:14:33 am
I've not played one before, and I appreciate I should :rtfm:, but I was a bit pissed at wasting transfers on the TTT. Why exclude it?

Opera Mobile works ok in desktop mode, lets you do everything except scroll through the change rider list, ie. the most important bit, so still not great. It does let you look at team rider selections and the league properly though.

Matter of fact encyclopedic beta mind. Genius.

He did it again yesterday, knew the road they were finishing on and how it would run.
Found it strange how early his team worked though, and then seemed spent when they were really needed.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 05, 2013, 10:01:18 am
Its complete rubbish. Because I'm second to last of course ;)

Its alright.. a bit of fun etc..
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 05, 2013, 10:20:21 am
The rules and the website are total dogshit but it adds a bit of extra fun to watching it. And anything I'm beating tomtom at has to be worthwhile.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 05, 2013, 10:33:32 am
The rules and the website are total dogshit but it adds a bit of extra fun to watching it. And anything I'm beating tomtom at has to be worthwhile.

:p
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 05, 2013, 12:52:53 pm

Found it strange how early his team worked though, and then seemed spent when they were really needed.

Sounds like he wasn't too happy about it:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/04/tour-de-france-andre-greipel-mark-cavandish (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/04/tour-de-france-andre-greipel-mark-cavandish)

Quote
Omega Pharma-Quick Step's sports director, Brian Holm, brushed off his reaction. "I just heard him yelling in the bus, no one can understand him when he's yelling,"
  :lol:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 05, 2013, 01:07:32 pm
Brian Holm is such a legend and has a great beard

#opqstdf: Brian Holm on the 100th Tour de France! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jq2TLNUBTJ0#ws)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 05, 2013, 06:34:27 pm
the fantasy site working for anyone else? won't let me log in, which is a bit annoying when transfers expire tonight!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 05, 2013, 06:59:10 pm
ignore me it works now!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on July 08, 2013, 09:08:11 am
This has been one of the best tdf's I've watched, proper racing every day. Brilliant.
Spoiler:
NSFW  :
and great to see Dan Martin win the stage yesterday

Duma's got the fantasy cycling sussed  :bow:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 12, 2013, 04:37:44 pm
Now that was an excellent stage! Good to see the saxo and Belkin boys have some fight in them.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 12, 2013, 09:30:54 pm
Agreed! Never saw that one coming! Kittel is incredible. Just hope the mountains take the whack out of him for Paris.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 14, 2013, 09:16:40 am
hope y'all binned your sprinters in time for the third week....
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 14, 2013, 11:58:46 am
Certainly have. It'll take more than that for me to catch you up now though Duma!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Richie Crouch on July 14, 2013, 03:45:30 pm
What a great result today, impressive uphill domination! :)

Spotted a good article on altering body mass and diet on the G too: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/14/tour-de-france-team-sky-dietician, (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/14/tour-de-france-team-sky-dietician,) although you have probably all seen it before  :shrug:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 14, 2013, 09:08:25 pm
Utterly incredible today. Its scary how much stronger Froome appears to be than anyone else. And he seems to like nailing them before a rest day!

I quite like how one commentator mentioned that Contador "hadn't been himself" since his ban. On the contrrary, he seems to be entirely himself!
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 14, 2013, 09:28:24 pm
Cadel Evans has had a noticeable drop off too...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 14, 2013, 09:31:59 pm
Will, perhaps note how you have congratulated one (British) rider on an exceptional performance while at the same time noting the drop to 'normal' levels following a drugs ban...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mrconners on July 14, 2013, 09:39:52 pm

:-\

A performance good enough to be from the 90's.

I want to believe its all above board but I am struggling to keep the faith


Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 14, 2013, 10:48:14 pm
:-\
A performance good enough to be from the 90's.

this.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 14, 2013, 10:49:34 pm
However, I do like Quintana, what a poker face! was certain he was going to nip round froome for the win until he cracked.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 15, 2013, 08:03:30 am
:-\
A performance good enough to be from the 90's.

this.

I'd struggle to believe that Sky were doping. They've structured their whole team brand around being the 0 tolerance clean team. Could a rider get something like that past Brailsford? If they were caught it would discredit the team, and Sky (the company's) involvement in cycling in the UK massively. So is there more pressure to win or to ride more poorly but clean  :devangel:

Its not like we haven't seen performances like this from Froome before. He and Wiggins tore the race apart last year.

Quintana wasn't far off Froome's performance and he didn't have much help from the rest of his team. It would be interesting to see how he would have fared had he stuck with the Sky train until the attacks started.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 15, 2013, 08:14:40 am
From what I've gleaned from tweets/articles is that whilst some stage and in particular climb times have equalled or exceeded times from the bad old days, the same rider is not doing that day after day after day..

Froomes time up Ventoux beat Armstrongs fastest time, but Froome had a tailwind, Armstrong headwind..

I think its been a great Tour to watch... aside from Froome nailing it on the key stages (which is great), the tour has been pretty random..
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 15, 2013, 08:15:21 am
Last year Sky had their whole team working on the climbs and Wiggins and Froome only had a few KM at the end to deal with.  Those performances were marked by keeping a high tempo and dropping people steadily, not accelerating and blowing apart the field.  The important thing last year was that neither Froome nor Wiggins seemed to be head and shoulders above their competition, and it was the work of a very strong team that was getting them in position.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 15, 2013, 08:57:55 am
good post stubbs. Will, people made very similar arguments re Armstrong back in the day. I do hope he's clean, and exceptional, but cyclings history over the last 20 years doesn't bode well.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 15, 2013, 09:16:41 am
My knowledge of the sport is rudimentary at best so I will bow to your superior knowledge. I agree that it does look too good to be true but I'll leave it to the relevant authorities to suss out who's doped and who's not.

Or is that showing my ignorance again? How effective are the tour organisers at catching the bad guys?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 15, 2013, 09:38:19 am
Everyone was complicit to some extent.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 15, 2013, 09:42:59 am
It'll be interesting to see what Asapha Powell and Tyson Gay got caught taking (if B samples are correct etc..) - A batch of them seem to have been tested positive together which indicates they may have a new/better/refined test for something...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 15, 2013, 10:38:35 am
The diffrence these days is that they look like they are trying really hard. In Lances day there was all that casually looking  round then flying off 5 mph faster.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mrconners on July 15, 2013, 11:04:27 am
I will always watch cycling, i love it.


However I feel like I have heard so many lies that it's hard to keep believing.


As fans, if we still expect to see epic battles over 150 -250km stages in 35 degree heat for 3 weeks ridden flat out. :shrug:








Loved the tour so far though. One of the best stages was Fridays flattie. Like a classics race. Brilliant.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 15, 2013, 12:42:07 pm
I thought Friday's stage was amazing too, great to see what would have been written off as a transfer stage result in the challengers closing on the leader by a minute!

I really really hope Team Sky are clean, and that Froome is an exceptional athlete that can be the best climber but also come within seconds of the time trial world champion on a short flat TT.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Lund on July 15, 2013, 12:54:18 pm
Slightly  :offtopic: but

It'll be interesting to see what Asapha Powell and Tyson Gay got caught taking (if B samples are correct etc..) - A batch of them seem to have been tested positive together which indicates they may have a new/better/refined test for something...

Powell and the other sprinter both tested positive for oxilofrine according to the BBC - a stimulant that is not widely but still available in a variety of supplements.  I wonder about this - both at the same event... we'll see, but this is how hard it is for these people:

Look on here:

http://www.bodybuildingwarehouse.co.uk/alri-hyperdrive-4-0-60-caps?utm_source=GoogleShopping&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=GoogleShopping (http://www.bodybuildingwarehouse.co.uk/alri-hyperdrive-4-0-60-caps?utm_source=GoogleShopping&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=GoogleShopping)

This supplement looks fine you might think.  Yes it has an appetite suppressant in it, but not one that's banned.

Now go to the manufacturers website, and you would see that it contains oxilofrine:

http://alrindustries.com/products/hyperdrive-3-0-hyperdrive-4-0 (http://alrindustries.com/products/hyperdrive-3-0-hyperdrive-4-0)

So... it's an easy trap to fall into.

Tyson Gay is interesting for other reasons.  He's pulled out of moscow.  Yet: he's still asked for the B-sample to be tested, and not admitted his guilt.  If he coughs to something then, then maybe he'll be worth the benefit of the doubt.  But so far he's added 2-3 months to his doping ban - for what?  He's going to contest whatever it is.


Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Lund on July 15, 2013, 12:55:09 pm
that Froome is an exceptional athlete that can be the best climber but also come within seconds of the time trial world champion on a short flat TT.

 :)
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 15, 2013, 01:19:16 pm
that Froome is an exceptional athlete that can be the best climber but also come within seconds of the time trial world champion on a short flat TT.

 :)

This interests me.. Froome seems to race his own race up the climbs (not with the sudden accelerations and de-accelerations). Is this similar to a long but paced time trial?
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 15, 2013, 01:19:48 pm
Ps - thanks for the Tyson Gay clarification Lund. Good post.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 15, 2013, 01:43:54 pm
Tom he did at least two massive accelerations yesterday, once to drop Contador and that group (including Porte) and then nearer the end to distance Quintana who held his wheel for a bit then blew up.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 15, 2013, 01:49:11 pm
I no nuffin :( #punter
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 15, 2013, 01:53:29 pm
IIRC there was four - one to drop conti, two unsuccessful and a final successful one on quintana.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 15, 2013, 02:35:41 pm
Some interesting stuff about this here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2013/jul/14/chris-froome-tour-de-france? (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2013/jul/14/chris-froome-tour-de-france?)

And here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/15/sky-dave-brailsford-doping (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/15/sky-dave-brailsford-doping)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 15, 2013, 02:49:44 pm
Here's the press conference if you want to listen to Froome and Brailsford (obviously and understandably pissed off) in full

https://soundcloud.com/cycling-central/podcast-15-july-2013-team-sky
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mrconners on July 15, 2013, 03:30:23 pm
Anyway, all this aside. who do you reckon will win it? It must be Froome at this stage bar some accident or horror mechanical, Sagan gets the green (he's a mutant) and not sure about the mountains at this stage.


Best stage so far? Fridays flattie for me. Total power madness. Watching Berties boys smash the pace as the groups split was awesome.


Still looking forward to the last week, its brilliant.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 16, 2013, 12:26:07 am
green and yellow are over (bar crashes/failed test). Agree fri was best yet. Sun in the Pyrenees was pretty awesome too.

Anyway, more importantly, thought I was cruising in the fantasy league, but suddenly Will, with a finely judged bonus stage, is snapping at my heels!
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 16, 2013, 07:56:07 am
nice explanation of Froomes uhill riding style - and training for the attacks.. really interesting stuff..

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/15/team-sky-chris-froome-tour-de-france (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/15/team-sky-chris-froome-tour-de-france)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mrconners on July 17, 2013, 08:00:16 pm
Good bit of info there.  This also explains wiggos tendancy to remain seated whilst all about are bouncing on the pedals. I much prefer to stand then sit then stand etc on climbs. I find that it is more comfortable. But then im shite and unfit.
Not writing bertie off yet. Still time for anything to happen
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Jaspersharpe on July 18, 2013, 10:23:30 am
Sky release Froome data to l'Equipe:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/18/team-sky-chris-froome-data (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jul/18/team-sky-chris-froome-data)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 19, 2013, 10:17:25 am
Anyone looking for a job?
http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/4674394/chief-executive-tour-de-france-2014-ltd/ (http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/4674394/chief-executive-tour-de-france-2014-ltd/)
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 20, 2013, 07:31:39 pm
Well da kid done good.

The apparent ease with which Froome has won this year hides what a superb athlete he must be. I am gobsmacked by his physical and mental performance. Bravo!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 22, 2013, 07:39:47 am
Good to see the right people on the podium at the end. Gutted for Cav but the fastest man on the course got a well deserved win. That pothole at the end looked nasty!

Re: the fantasy league. No racing on the last day for you, Duma?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 22, 2013, 06:44:05 pm
damn you hunt! had saved my final transfer for paris, then went to the Gower for the weekend and climbed, got pissed and lay on the beach, forgetting all about it. Ah well, was going to sub Cav in so prob wouldn't have made the difference anyway.
Title: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 22, 2013, 06:59:55 pm
Was I last?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 23, 2013, 08:32:55 am
Your lead looked unassailable Duma... I did the same, forgot to switch my sprinters in until it was too late.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 23, 2013, 09:36:54 am
Me too.

I had the last stage as my bonus stage and then missed the transfer deadline for swapping all the sprinters in by about 1 min.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 23, 2013, 07:15:37 pm
 :tease:

I shouldn't worry too much. If I'd had the choice I'm sure I would have opted for a day on the Gower over a day on some minging lancs grit ( :sick: ), which is what I got.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Lund on August 23, 2013, 12:52:28 pm
Slightly  :offtopic: but

It'll be interesting to see what Asapha Powell and Tyson Gay got caught taking (if B samples are correct etc..) - A batch of them seem to have been tested positive together which indicates they may have a new/better/refined test for something...

Powell and the other sprinter both tested positive for oxilofrine according to the BBC - a stimulant that is not widely but still available in a variety of supplements.  I wonder about this - both at the same event... we'll see, but this is how hard it is for these people:

Look on here:

http://www.bodybuildingwarehouse.co.uk/alri-hyperdrive-4-0-60-caps?utm_source=GoogleShopping&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=GoogleShopping (http://www.bodybuildingwarehouse.co.uk/alri-hyperdrive-4-0-60-caps?utm_source=GoogleShopping&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=GoogleShopping)

This supplement looks fine you might think.  Yes it has an appetite suppressant in it, but not one that's banned.

Now go to the manufacturers website, and you would see that it contains oxilofrine:

http://alrindustries.com/products/hyperdrive-3-0-hyperdrive-4-0 (http://alrindustries.com/products/hyperdrive-3-0-hyperdrive-4-0)

So... it's an easy trap to fall into.

Tyson Gay is interesting for other reasons.  He's pulled out of moscow.  Yet: he's still asked for the B-sample to be tested, and not admitted his guilt.  If he coughs to something then, then maybe he'll be worth the benefit of the doubt.  But so far he's added 2-3 months to his doping ban - for what?  He's going to contest whatever it is.

Turns out gay tested for a steriod, unlike the jamaican.  Not surprised he didn't cough.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/23806237 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/23806237)

The BBC say that he's co-operating with the authorities to grass others up.  Omerta?  Not in sprinting.  That's probably a good thing.  His let down thing is pretty weak too, unless of course he meant "was let down as they assured me I wouldn't get caught"...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on August 23, 2013, 01:05:48 pm
I saw this today too - thanks for posting up Lund... not alot Gay could say really was there! Busted.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on July 02, 2014, 03:37:29 pm

GC: I don't know what Froome is like as a bloke but as a racer he is pretty boring. What with the whole Wiggins thing and Skys generally weakened team I want Clenbutador to win. At least he knows how to take risks and race.

Froome will be on his own a lot during the mountains, can they take enough time off him before the TT? It should be more interesting than last year anyway.

Green/Sprints: (Sagan) Obviously I want Cav to do well but something weird is bound to happen on that opening stage. Since he's treating Yellow like the Worlds maybe he can do it! I hope so. Obviously Kittel will win a couple.

Stages: Fuck Garmin, they are so much weaker than last year and when they inevitably try some exciting tactics to mug a stage it will fail because Slagter will get out sprinted by Albasini/Sagan/Kristoff etc. OCE on the other hand have become I team I like because they look like they're having fun. And they have better riders.

I want someone like Jeremy Roy to win a stage, he's a nice guy, will Thomas be given a chance? I doubt it. And Nico Roche though he generally falters on the big stage. His best hope might be for a stealth top ten, if he does his job he'll get that.

FDJ are a good team actually.

Other predictions: Hausller fully inherits the Farrar plucky loser prize. Porte has a shocker and fails to do his job. Scarponi goes backwards on the first mountain stage. JVDB finishes 4th. Rodriguez does something. Someone breaks their collar bone in the neutral section.

So many names, so many stories. After all the talk I'm quite excited now its here. I won't be in Yorkshire but they ride right past my office on Monday.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 02, 2014, 04:03:56 pm
List of the teams and riders
http://www.cyclingstage.com/tour-de-france-2014/riders-tdf-2014/ (http://www.cyclingstage.com/tour-de-france-2014/riders-tdf-2014/)

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 02, 2014, 04:07:45 pm

GC: I don't know what Froome is like as a bloke but as a racer he is pretty boring. What with the whole Wiggins thing and Skys generally weakened team I want Clenbutador to win. At least he knows how to take risks and race.

Froome will be on his own a lot during the mountains, can they take enough time off him before the TT? It should be more interesting than last year anyway.


Boring? Can't remember Wiggins ever winning mountain stages like Froome did last year by blowing his rivals away on Ax 3 Domaines and Ventoux!?  He may be many things, but in racing terms he is far from 'boring'...The Dauphine mountain stage was testament to that.

Not sure he will be isolated, they have picked a strong squad of fairly explosive climbers (Porte, Lopez, Nieve) who may offer more protection in closer down attacks as I think the days of Sky setting the pace high enough to drain over teams are long gone as other teams expect those tactics now (hence the Talansky/Garmin Sharp tactics in the Dauphine.)

With so many genuine contenders for GC it should be an amazing race this year.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on July 02, 2014, 04:19:37 pm
Riding others off your wheel isn't tactical nous.

Though yes, maybe boring is unfair; the Dauphine was a great race.

He has a boring face though. There just isn't anything about Froome I can root for.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 02, 2014, 04:27:10 pm
Yes, Froome doesn't have the race craft that Bertie does.
He doesn't attack, he just ups the pace and last year that was enough to drop people.
I can't see that working so well this year, Bertie showed in the Dauphine that he was up to the task, he just couldn't come around and take the stage win.

I think Porte should be in good shape, but might have a bad day, but I'd love to see him out ride Froome.
I really hope Geraint, gets to do a bit more than just domestique, but really he shouldn't be given the chance. Especially since it would make Sky look a bit 2 faced compared to 2 years ago.


Sprinting wise, its hard to know where Kietel v Cav will go but I won't be surprised if there isn't a massive crash within 10km of Harrogate. In the past Cav has a few times screwed up the first sprint of the Tour but I'm hoping that he will be more prepared this year.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 02, 2014, 05:01:17 pm
Are we having a fantasy league this year? I've a yellow jersey to defend  :)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 02, 2014, 05:15:38 pm
Riding others off your wheel isn't tactical nous.

Though yes, maybe boring is unfair; the Dauphine was a great race.

He has a boring face though. There just isn't anything about Froome I can root for.

Tactical nous it may not be, but he had the gas for that to be enough last year, I agree this year will be much tougher.

The Dauphine will have woken Sky and Tinkov up to the fact that if Contador and Froome only mark each other, there will be plenty of other suitors waiting in the wings...

Realistically there are probably 10-12 serious GC contenders, there were probably less than 6 last year who could challenge Froome in the form he was in then. Too close to call. Whoever comes through the first week unscathed after Yorkshire and the cobbles will consider themselves lucky, but there will no doubt be some main GC contender casualties.

I just hope teams take the initiative and throw a little caution to the wind, ala Garmin Sharp in the Dauphine.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 02, 2014, 05:23:14 pm
I'm so excited. Looking forward to some (hopeful) fireworks from Garmin and OPQS early on to try and get some time for Talanksy and Kwiatowski. I really hope the winds are blowing on the coast for the stages before the cobbles, the echelons last year were great!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 02, 2014, 07:19:59 pm
Are we having a fantasy league this year? I've a yellow jersey to defend  :)

I'd be keen another fantasy league. We did the cyclingnews (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/fantasy-tour-is-go) one last year which was ok, want to do the same again or has anyone seen a better one?

It sounds as though they've made a few changes, though the website is down at the moment which isn't a great sign...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 03, 2014, 08:25:08 am
In terms of GC predictions, my money's on Bertie.

Strangely I find myself supporting Froome, and I can't entirely figure out why. When he's on form his climbing is incredible, and he's no slouch at TT / anything else. So I respect him as a rider, but he still just isn't that likeable.

Looking forward to seeing the Tour in the dales this weekend, staying with girlfriends family who live a couple of miles from the route  :dance1:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on July 03, 2014, 10:17:54 am
Strangely I find myself supporting Froome, and I can't entirely figure out why. When he's on form his climbing is incredible, and he's no slouch at TT / anything else. So I respect him as a rider, but he still just isn't that likeable.

That's summed up how I feel too.

I can't see past Contador/Froome for 1 and 2, but too close to say which way round. Then Nibali, Valverde, Talansky, Van Garderen, Costa, Peraud, Mollema and maybe F.Schleck up there.
Not sure about Kwiatkowski, he's young and has had a long season so far with mixed results recently. I'd like him to do well.

I want Cav to follow through on stage 1 but there will probably be a mass pile up and an unexpected winner. I think the points jersey could surprise, Sagan hasn't been his usual dominating self this year so the pure sprinters might get a shot.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: danm on July 03, 2014, 11:20:06 am
Berties racecraft is so good that he completely forgot about Talansky in the Dauphine, lol. Exciting rider, always good to watch but I just can't get on board his fan train.

Froome dragged himself into the sport pretty much on his own, the stories about him turning up unsupported early in his career are what cycling is made of. I'll be rooting for him and the G, but not Sky as a team.

With Garmins decision to drop Millar, I've lost a lot of respect for Vaughters and his team, I figured he'd put honour and loyalty above results, but I guess not.

Other than that, of course I'll be hoping for Cav and Yates to do well, and if Sagan pulls any wheelies I'll be psyched.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 03, 2014, 12:31:40 pm
Other than that, of course I'll be hoping for Cav and Yates to do well, and if Sagan pulls any wheelies I'll be psyched.

Yates is a good shout for young riders jersey alongside Talansky and Kwiatkowski, one half of an exceptionally talented British duo.

Gutted Kennaugh didn't make the cut, he was immense at times last year, especially for someone so young.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: erm, sam on July 03, 2014, 12:35:24 pm
Is Millar not riding the tour then? Arse, I was wild hopes for an amazing last stage victory for him.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 03, 2014, 12:44:22 pm
Is Millar not riding the tour then? Arse, I was wild hopes for an amazing last stage victory for him.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/28093798 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/28093798)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on July 03, 2014, 02:53:09 pm

With Garmins decision to drop Millar, I've lost a lot of respect for Vaughters and his team, I figured he'd put honour and loyalty above results, but I guess not.


Exactly.

There is some intrigue here as Vaughters and Millar always seemed so tight, fellow crusaders and I read Millar his some financial stake in the team though don't know what.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: danm on July 03, 2014, 06:48:53 pm
Millar was so pissed off to begin with that he advertised his bike as for sale on Twitter, a bit later he came back and graciously wished the team all the best on the Tour. If you ever get the chance to read his book, do.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 03, 2014, 08:53:23 pm
President of the tour De France God's own county. Getting quite excited now. Allez Le Yorkshire!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: saltbeef on July 04, 2014, 12:17:24 am
I tell you what, it'd be pretty cool to see Chavanel or Fabian get yellow on stage 2
I don't think you can call Froome boring, he has a proper go in the mountains, look at that stage he won in the dauphine! what a mentalist, he could have done a Wiggo style grindfest but basically just went ballistic!
real shame that Wiggo (especially) kennaugh, miller, other yates, stannard, swift aren't there
(I still can't understand the rationale of taking xabier rather than wiggo. )

frothing gently
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on July 04, 2014, 10:00:26 am
Paul Kimmage interviews Froome:

Part 1 (http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/cycling/cyclist-chris-froome-is-right-in-the-eye-of-the-storm-30391816.html)

Part 2 (http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/paul-kimmage-chris-froome-in-the-eye-of-the-storm-part-2-30394950.html)

I think he comes out of ok, except that he won't call specific riders cheaters for having doped. Clarified the parasite thing, the recent TUE and his seated attack in last year's tour.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on July 04, 2014, 10:25:27 am
Are we having a fantasy league this year? I've a yellow jersey to defend  :)

I'd be keen another fantasy league. We did the cyclingnews (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/fantasy-tour-is-go) one last year which was ok, want to do the same again or has anyone seen a better one?

It sounds as though they've made a few changes, though the website is down at the moment which isn't a great sign...

There's the Road.cc one : http://fantasy.road.cc/home (http://fantasy.road.cc/home) which seems pretty good - it doesn't need daily tweaking quite as much as some of the others. I'm already on there as "Avoiding The Bears"

There's http://www.velogames.com/ (http://www.velogames.com/) as well, which wasn't quite so polished when I last used it, but I think it's been updated since then

Edit - I got that the wrong way round. Velogames is set up so that you select your team then sit back for 3 weeks. Road.cc has transfers between stages. I've joined both anyway!

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 05, 2014, 11:16:47 pm
Sprinting wise, its hard to know where Kietel v Cav will go but I won't be surprised if there isn't a massive crash within 10km of Harrogate. In the past Cav has a few times screwed up the first sprint of the Tour but I'm hoping that he will be more prepared this year.
You were pretty on the money. He wanted it too badly. Shame.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 06, 2014, 06:04:34 pm
Bit gutted about cav yesterday, but today's stage more than made up for it! Go nibs!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mark s on July 06, 2014, 10:08:12 pm
the final climb in sheffield was superb froome,valverde,nibali,contador,sagan all fighting each other.
the sheer number of people cheering on was mind blowing.never seen crowds like it.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Nibile on July 07, 2014, 11:49:30 am
Bit gutted about cav yesterday, but today's stage more than made up for it! Go nibs!
;D
There you go, my pleasure!!! (They keep spelling my name wrong...)

(http://www.ilsalvagente.it/immagini/hp-nibali.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 07, 2014, 12:49:04 pm
And after the most magical two days in Yorkshire, it's off down to London for what promises to be the most boring stage of the race. Thanks for that, London. Not sure how they managed to get in on the act.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: slackline on July 07, 2014, 12:57:05 pm
Was it everything everyone hoped for?

There were some impressive cringeworthy camel toes on display from the 15 minutes I caught on TV.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: bigtuboflard on July 07, 2014, 01:44:57 pm
Had a great day at the foot of the Cote de Bradfield. Was a little sceptical before I went if I'm honest but the atmosphere, caravans, and the sight of the peloton pinning it in to the bend I was on the charge up the climb was incredible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 07, 2014, 01:45:54 pm
Lot of waiting around, really busy, the caravan hardly gave out any freebies, the cyclists went past in about 15 seconds.
But hell yeah, great atmosphere, being able to be part of it and be able to say we were there. It felt like a real occasion and the scale of the crowds were unlike anything I've seen before - even at Wembley/Millenium stadium/Twickenham etc.
Getting high fives from the gendarmes on their bikes  8)
I loved it.  :dance1:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: danm on July 07, 2014, 01:58:12 pm
Watched stage 1 at Buttertubs - got a great spot just up from where it was really packed. Not as dramatic as watching Froome and Quintana destroying Bertie last year on the Ventoux, but massively exciting seeing the peleton taking on our classic climbs, and blown away by the numbers of people.

(http://i.imgur.com/jB28GLal.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 07, 2014, 02:06:58 pm
Watched stage 1 at Buttertubs - got a great spot just up from where it was really packed. Not as dramatic as watching Froome and Quintana destroying Bertie last year on the Ventoux, but massively exciting seeing the peleton taking on our classic climbs, and blown away by the numbers of people.

(http://i.imgur.com/jB28GLal.jpg)

Great shot!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on July 07, 2014, 02:12:16 pm
Went for a more relaxed location just after the summit in Bradfield, which was a nice place and had room to chill out but still had some atmosphere.

It was what I expected really. Watching the 07 TdF prologue on Whitehall was a bigger occasion for me, but I guess this would have been bigger if I could have been bothered to walk up and join the scrum on the actual climb.
Very proud of how many people came out and made the effort though.

I was more excited a few years back when I was stood at the feed zone for a stage of the Dauphine just outside of Bourg d'Oisans.

tdf2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQ6zH3V5P3E#ws)

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 07, 2014, 02:21:00 pm
We had a great spot at the bottom of Jawbone Hill in Oughtibridge. The park was right next to the route, with a big screen, food etc so we could keep the kids entertained during the wait and still follow the action. Then had a good view of them starting the climb. They were well spread out by the time they passed us, about 25min between leaders and back markers. The Steel Stage busted them wide open!  :2thumbsup:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cheque on July 07, 2014, 02:27:06 pm
Had a great day at the foot of the Cote de Bradfield. Was a little sceptical before I went if I'm honest but the atmosphere, caravans, and the sight of the peloton pinning it in to the bend I was on the charge up the climb was incredible.

You can't have been far from me.  :wave:

I thought it was amazing- as I said on the other thread, my girlfriend is the cycling fan and she was on cloud nine but I was surprised by how much fun I had.

When the motorbikes directly ahead of the first riders appeared it was absolutely crazy- part sporting event, part civil emergency- and the rush of excitement that greeted each pack of cyclists was electrifying. I'll post one or two of the pictures I took in a bit.

The fact we'd been staking out our piece of verge for 8 hours just seemed to make the 15 minutes of race even better- I can kind of understand why people flip out and run alongside them in their pants and stuff now.  ;) 

I seem to have agreed to go over to France to watch it next summer...  :look:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: T_B on July 07, 2014, 02:33:01 pm
Half way up the Cote de Bradfield. Mega  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: slackline on July 07, 2014, 02:46:11 pm
I thought it was it just the footage I saw but it seems there are a lot of idiots making a nuisance of themselves (http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/jul/06/tour-de-france-2014-selfies-pain-arse-riders).
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: bigtuboflard on July 07, 2014, 02:51:09 pm
Had a great day at the foot of the Cote de Bradfield. Was a little sceptical before I went if I'm honest but the atmosphere, caravans, and the sight of the peloton pinning it in to the bend I was on the charge up the climb was incredible.

You can't have been far from me.  :wave:

I thought it was amazing- as I said on the other thread, my girlfriend is the cycling fan and she was on cloud nine but I was surprised by how much fun I had.

When the motorbikes directly ahead of the first riders appeared it was absolutely crazy- part sporting event, part civil emergency- and the rush of excitement that greeted each pack of cyclists was electrifying. I'll post one or two of the pictures I took in a bit.

The fact we'd been staking out our piece of verge for 8 hours just seemed to make the 15 minutes of race even better- I can kind of understand why people flip out and run alongside them in their pants and stuff now.  ;) 

I seem to have agreed to go over to France to watch it next summer...  :look:

I was stood on the wall holding on to the bus stop, just as the road started to head back up hill. loved the moment after the road was closed when the old fella on the mobility scooter headed along the course only to grind to halt after 50m up the hill and the marshals having to push him to the side of the road  ;D
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 07, 2014, 02:55:14 pm
I thought it was it just the footage I saw but it seems there are a lot of idiots making a nuisance of themselves (http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/jul/06/tour-de-france-2014-selfies-pain-arse-riders).
I don't think it was too bad, they had that width issue on one of the stage one climbs when the peleton ground to a halt. The crash on Buttertubs had nothing to do with spectators (but did send one tumbling!) Put it this way, of 2.5million people watching, many of which were in a 'good mood'  :icon_beerchug:, but only a handful took some silly risks, none of which caused any incidents.  :2thumbsup:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duncan Disorderly on July 07, 2014, 05:10:56 pm
Best day ever!!! Rode up to Bradfield and did the Cote de Bradfield, the swift descent into Oughtibridge and up the Jawbone with loads of people cheering me on!! Watched a good portion of the race in the fan park, filled me bidons with Cavendish beer and found a perfect spot halfway up the Jawbone - sat with an ace bunch of folk and laughed non-stop for about 2hrs until the pros rode past... Saw real pain etched on some of their faces and the GC contenders showing how easy it really can be! Was so psyched I rode the Jawbone again and the rest of the closed roads back into town... Dunno if it gets much better really!
Definitely off to watch in the Alps next year!!
:D
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Sloper on July 07, 2014, 05:15:48 pm
Half way up the Cote de Bradfield. Mega  :thumbsup:

That's where we wtched it from, amazing *everything* that came up the road got a cheer, even the bin lorry at the end!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cheque on July 07, 2014, 08:57:17 pm
(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5556/14618800583_9760df2ccf_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/ogPb6V)

A few more (https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikecheque/sets/72157645555881522/)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 08, 2014, 09:15:09 am
(http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d122/dickensbooth/IMG_20140705_104856_zpsc2624d99.jpg) not near a fan park or a hill. In fact half way between Otley and Ilkley.
And looking the other way
(http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d122/dickensbooth/IMG_20140705_104905_zps7ade3fe6.jpg)
Eiffel tower in your back garden? Why not?
(http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d122/dickensbooth/IMG_20140705_093752_zps2201a9d4.jpg)
Wembley Way? No Burley in Wharfedale
(http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d122/dickensbooth/IMG_20140705_122811_zps68a38e9d.jpg)
and Bex welcomes the world to Yorkshire.
(http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d122/dickensbooth/IMG_20140705_113003_zps46b24194.jpg)

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: bigtuboflard on July 08, 2014, 04:29:37 pm
Got some photos of this fella near the Old Horns but I think this little clip does it just as much justice

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAGhkWBVMQg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAGhkWBVMQg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 08, 2014, 09:01:59 pm
We went up to Jenkin Rd. on Sunday and we were really lucky to get right up to the barrier (mainly due to people being pretty friendly). Great atmosphere and I thought Yorkshire looked fantastic throughout the weekend, even if ITV were getting a few place names wrong.

I took a camera but forgot how to hold it straight...

(https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2939/14603375611_53c04c2e37_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/ofs7N8)
Cote de Jenkin Rd. (https://flic.kr/p/ofs7N8) by travelswithmyt4 (https://www.flickr.com/people//), on Flickr

(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3861/14583826806_f2b4242945_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/odHVBL)
Cote de Jenkin Rd. (https://flic.kr/p/odHVBL) by travelswithmyt4 (https://www.flickr.com/people//), on Flickr

Full set here (https://flic.kr/s/aHsjZw1MLr)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on July 09, 2014, 02:04:38 pm
Interesting interview with Dave Brailsford

http://audioboo.fm/boos/2311655-stage-4-dave-brailsford-opens-up (http://audioboo.fm/boos/2311655-stage-4-dave-brailsford-opens-up)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Grubes on July 09, 2014, 02:44:36 pm
Froome has abandoned
Fell and is injured prior to the first section of cobbles
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 09, 2014, 02:45:36 pm
Froome out, just climbed into the back of the second team car after a second crash before they'd even reached the cobbles. Shame they haven't got a second option as leader.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 09, 2014, 02:54:20 pm
Froome out, just climbed into the back of the second team car after a second crash before they'd even reached the cobbles. Shame they haven't got a second option as leader.

Gutted for him. Conditions look horrendous today. Time for Ritchie Porte and Gee to step up, both positioned well, along with Mikel Nieve. The list of riders who have gone down today already is incredible...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mark s on July 09, 2014, 03:29:50 pm
Watching it now.conditions horrid but makes for good racing.
really think the pro cyclists are the most underrated of top athletes.so fucking fit and tough.
nibali seems to be handling the conditions well.
Spartacus is keeping his head down.keep seeing him up there.sure he will make a go for it as long as he stays up.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 09, 2014, 04:23:08 pm
Nibs is proper stepping up.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 09, 2014, 08:19:06 pm
Some fantastic pictures from today's stage, it will be remembered as a classic!
http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/07/tour-de-france-stage-5-in-photos/ (http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/07/tour-de-france-stage-5-in-photos/)

(http://d4nuk0dd6nrma.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014-Tour-de-France-Stage-5-3.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 09, 2014, 09:09:19 pm
Amazing, they were going down like skittles. Does anyone know if they change their tyres for wet/muddy conditions?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 09, 2014, 09:14:14 pm
same tires, just a bit less pressure
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 09, 2014, 09:30:51 pm
Maybe bigger volume tyres.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 09, 2014, 09:33:27 pm
Just watched the highlights... What a brilliant day.  Boom looked SOOOO psyched to cross the line.  Was I right in hearing he's ex cyclocross?  No wonder he won then!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: bigd942 on July 09, 2014, 10:23:56 pm
27c seems to be the norm for tyres but a 27c FMB (hand made tubular tyre for the cobbles) can measure 30mm apparently - tyre pressure 70-80psi depending on rider weight. Traditional spoked wheels (spokes wired and soldered where they crossed) where the norm till about three years ago, carbon wheels seem to dominate cobble now however.

Sad to see Froome go out, glad there wasn't too much of the 'should have brought Wiggins' discussion, but they should have  ;D
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 10, 2014, 08:41:55 am
Real shame to see Froome out, I'm particularly disappointed we won't see him and Bertie going head to head in the mountains. I was looking forward to seeing whether Froome had the form to blow away the field again.

On a positive note, it was really good to see Nibali come out of this well, and to see Bertie lose 3 minutes. Amazing rider or not, I can't get behind a cheat.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 10, 2014, 08:49:10 am
Most teams were running 28-30 mm tubs @ 70-80 psi, most had a bit of tread on rather than being slick. Most are also riding different frames to what they ride on the road, i.e. all the Specialised sponsored teams were riding the Tarmac which has a bit of built in suspension, same with the Trek guys who were riding the Domane.

Feel sorry for Froome going out like this, but the Tour de France should be about more than who can maintain the highest VAM for longest, it should be about being able to handle a bike too!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 10, 2014, 09:35:24 am
As much as it's a shame to see Froome out I think the race just became so much more interesting. I'm looking forward to seeing if Nibs can stand up to Contrabandador in the hills. As said above, I can't get behind Bertie but would love to see Nibs take it. Should also be a great opportunity for G Thomas and Porte to show what they can do when they're not having to look after CF.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 10, 2014, 10:05:11 am
Feel sorry for Froome going out like this, but the Tour de France should be about more than who can maintain the highest VAM for longest, it should be about being able to handle a bike too!

'Tour is an obstacle course, but some treat it like a gym session.' (https://twitter.com/friebos/status/486857461987803136)

Sad to see Froome go out like that. I can't say I was behind him, I'd rather have seen those GC boys battle it out until the end. That said, magnificent ride by Mr Nibbles. Brilliant stage.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: gme on July 10, 2014, 11:46:16 am
What is it about Froome that makes people not support him. Do all winners have to be "cool cats" like Wiggins. I find this a really British thing when we want to win stuff but we are not allowed to be serious about it. Its a real shame he has retired, he was obviously broken and must be in a hellish place having just dedicated the last 12 months to this race. Everyone felt sorry for Cav but not so Froome. Its tragic when any of them has to retire.

I also don't get the Brailsford/Sky thing either. A really successful, organised, efficient team that a few years ago we loved and now, because he didn't pick the countries favorite Paul Weller impersonator, we all hate him.
I see lots of comment about Sky not being a british team but whilst i am aware that the TDF used to be a nation v nation thing this is a long time ago. Now, like the premiership, the teams are made up of the best riders/players and thee TDF is the champions league not the world cup. British based team but not a British team, it never was.

I think what Brailsford and sky have done is amazing and get a bit pissed off with all the hate that seems focused at him due to him supposedly having no heart.

Anyone think of another team full of very efficient, professional, serious but ultimately boring and characterless members doing well in sport at the minute. Oh sorry we dont like them either do we.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on July 10, 2014, 12:11:46 pm
Interesting interview with Dave Brailsford

http://audioboo.fm/boos/2311655-stage-4-dave-brailsford-opens-up (http://audioboo.fm/boos/2311655-stage-4-dave-brailsford-opens-up)
Thanks for this, a good listen.


Re: yesterday's stage, that was fantastic racing. Real shame about Froome, I don't want to see anyone go out like that.

Nibali and Astana were great, and G.Thomas in his interview not being able to hide how much he loved riding the stage, "it was my idea to attack, told Porte to get on my wheel and tried to smash it", brilliant (general gist, not verbatim)

It's set things up nicely for the rest of the race. Everyone bar Nibs needs to go on the offensive now.

I think what Brailsford and sky have done is amazing
+1
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 10, 2014, 01:50:03 pm
Sky and Froome are great (Froome was incredible last year), but the whole 'why we're not taking Brad' thing has been a bit tedious:

'There's only one leader, no Plan B'
Froome out of Tour.
'Richie has alway been our Plan B, two leaders in this team'

And Wiggins not picked because of 'form', despite clearly having plenty. While Porte has none this year and the likes of Danny Pate are about 500 years old.

I bet Porte wins it now! ;)

Only five days in and it's been a great Tour. Can't wait for the attacks on Nibali's time to start. Contador has a lot to make up!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on July 10, 2014, 01:53:46 pm
What is it about Froome that makes people not support him. Do all winners have to be "cool cats" like Wiggins.


Froome /Wiggins: I like Froomes attacking riding in the mountains but compared to a rider like Nibali he seems a bit one dimensional. The main reason I'm not really a Froome fan is that I don't know him.

So we should all jump to support the best because they win? (insert Man UTD jibe here). Anyone who has watched the Tour will have enjoyed Wiggos solo attacks riding for Cofidis, his steady progression to becoming a GC rider when there were few British riders to cheer for. Here was a guy who said interesting things and had a personality. Struggled with his success, has his demons, call them what you like. Having a journey through life as we all do.

I don't know Chris Froome. He appeared a couple of years ago and on the bike he seems to be a good climber.


I think what Brailsford and sky have done is amazing and get a bit pissed off with all the hate that seems focused at him due to him supposedly having no heart.

Anyone think of another team full of very efficient, professional, serious but ultimately boring and characterless members doing well in sport at the minute. Oh sorry we dont like them either do we.

I think a lot of the Sky negativity is unfair. Not following other sports much I actually can't think 'of very efficient, professional, serious but ultimately boring and characterless members doing well in sport at the minute'

If this is a comparison can you spell it out please.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: gme on July 10, 2014, 02:18:49 pm
You obviously don't watch the, much bigger on a world stage, event going on in Brazil. German footie team!!

I too preferred Wiggo and his character as entertainment value but its not that people dont like Froome as much as wiggins there seams to be a bunch who actively dislike him.

The little i have seen of him he seems a boring personality but surely an impressive athlete, arguably much better than wiggins.

I have not watched the tour other than the last 5-6 years so maybe my support of sky is a bit like a new Man utd/city/chelski supporter. However my dad has followed it all his life and he thinks what Brailsford has done is without reproach. The french and Italian teams were run like that decades ago, 1 leader and everyone else was there to get him over the line, no plan B.
 I cant see a character like Wiggins having been selected to support Mercx.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 10, 2014, 02:23:22 pm
For me the Sky Wiggo thing was purely emotional and nothing to do with having the best chance of winning it. I wanted to be able to cheer on Cav as an ex world champ, froome as current TDF champ and Wiggo as previous TDF champ. I was also disappointed at the lack of GB riders in general.
In my opinion Wiggo and Cav are more interesting as personalities off their bikes than Froome. But Froome is a more interesting rider on his bike than Wiggo. And I'm obviously right as I've seen them on TV and twitter and never met any of them ;)
As it turns out having Wiggo in may have been a sensible decision now, it was a lot of the spin the Sky put on the decision that  seemed dodgey, if they'd said Froome is our no. 1 and we don't think Brad can do a domestique role after winning the tour etc then fair enough, but the team will be picked on form stuff was obvious balls.
Nibs is doing a great job, how he'll hold up in the mountains and time trial against Beefy is going to be really interesting. For me I was starting to wonder if Froome and Beefy were again going to concentrate just on each other and give someone else the chance for leader as happened in the tour of Catalunya. Still been a classic so far, looking forward to the mountains.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 10, 2014, 02:25:20 pm
You obviously don't watch the, much bigger on a world stage, event going on in Brazil. German footie team!!

seven goals against Brazil wasn't boring, in fact most people on here were loving Germany beating Brazil. I was and will be hoping they beat Argentina on Sunday.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on July 10, 2014, 02:33:52 pm
You obviously don't watch the, much bigger on a world stage, event going on in Brazil. German footie team!!

seven goals against Brazil wasn't boring, in fact most people on here were loving Germany beating Brazil. I was and will be hoping they beat Argentina on Sunday.


Thats why I didn't know what he was referring to, (first German game I'd managed to see).
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: gme on July 10, 2014, 03:05:12 pm
The germany brazil game wasnt boring but only because you were watching a team implode. The German team is very much like the Sky/Froome team from last year. Efficient, organised and boring personalitys that work together in a way to totally dominate and control the game. Most other teams rely on one or two individuals flair.

The german game was only fun to watch because of brazil falling apart. There has been games where the level of skill and flair of individuals has been far better.

Anyway back on track i am loving the whole thing and would love to see Porte have a go.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 10, 2014, 04:23:42 pm
I'd echo what Cowboyhat has said about Froome - he's essentially come out of nowhere, his first year with Sky he showed himself to be a very good climber, by the second year he's beating times on mountains set in Lance et al's pomp and also beating the world time trial champion in time trials. He's boring in person and seemed to have dropped a real clanger of a biography (which I haven't yet read).  He's also shit at bike handling, as evidenced yesterday, which should be pretty unforgivable for a GC contender.  I like cycling because you don't have to support a team because they are 'British'.

What Sky did when they started, taking the successful British Cycling developed riders from the track to the road was amazing, and they did a great job of bringing through many great riders. These days I think they are more comparable to Chelsea, Man U or City than the German team: they have essentially a blank cheque and have used this to build a team with super domestiques who could easily be GC contenders at other teams.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 10, 2014, 05:26:20 pm
I'd echo what Cowboyhat has said about Froome - he's essentially come out of nowhere, his first year with Sky he showed himself to be a very good climber, by the second year he's beating times on mountains set in Lance et al's pomp and also beating the world time trial champion in time trials. He's boring in person and seemed to have dropped a real clanger of a biography (which I haven't yet read).  He's also shit at bike handling, as evidenced yesterday, which should be pretty unforgivable for a GC contender.  I like cycling because you don't have to support a team because they are 'British'.

What Sky did when they started, taking the successful British Cycling developed riders from the track to the road was amazing, and they did a great job of bringing through many great riders. These days I think they are more comparable to Chelsea, Man U or City than the German team: they have essentially a blank cheque and have used this to build a team with super domestiques who could easily be GC contenders at other teams.

Crikey, there is a lot of hating on the guy.

Not sure it is necessarily true that he 'came from nowhere', journalists and cyclists who have known Froome since he was at Barloworld have stated that he has always had a big engine and could climb, but lacked the know how and structure to get the best out of himself. The structure and set up at Sky has certainly addressed that.

Not sure we can judge his bike handling on yesterday, where he was obviously struggling from Tuesday's crash and sounds like he was already resigned to abandoning during yesterday's stage, regardless of the crashes.

Sky still have a great nucleus of British riders, young and old (Man Utd is probably the best comparison) including potential future GC contenders. I don't think this conveyor belt of talent has ceased.... It may have gone under the radar in the Wiggo kerfuffle, but I was more surprised to see Peter Kennaugh miss out on the TDF team after last year's contribution, and he is obviously going really well (National Championships and currently leading tour of Austria).

Geraint Thomas is another who has shown he is up for the challenge of leading as GC contender....and has the whole package in terms of on bike and off bike charisma...


Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 10, 2014, 05:59:42 pm
Firstly if like to reiterate I feel really bad for Froome, I was looking forward to watching him crumble in the mountains ;)

I'm judging his bike handling on all the riding I've seen him do, watch some of his descending in last year's tour for a reminder!

Came out of nowhere in relative terms for a GC winner, most others have a decent palmares before they start getting podium places on grand tours, I'm not sure Froome has this. Of course there are complicating factors with his illnesses etc. I like my cycling heroes a bit more substantially backed up these days I guess.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 10, 2014, 09:12:50 pm
The race will be worse off without him there in the mix. The only real winner at the minute is Nibali as it's one less contender who will attack him in the mountains....

Still not convinced you can say that anyone who is as competitive or successful as he has been at the Tour, can have shoddy bike handling skills. I seem to remember Bertie being the main culprit for mishaps on the descents last year ;)

I understand where you are coming from regarding track record of success/wins, but at some point attitudes have to change with regard to people being automatically suspicious of anything which resonates with the past. Call it naivety or hopeful optimism, but I genuinely believe times have changed on the whole (100% eradication it will never be).

The Telegraph cycling podcast had a great interview with David Walsh a few weeks ago where he spoke a lot about trust and believing what you are saying, especially in relation to the times of an era gone by being beaten by the current crop of riders....Inevitably many will without any foul play as standards improve, there should be no glass ceiling of what is believable unless their is evidence other than 'the EPO era'...

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 10, 2014, 09:40:50 pm
Having Froome drop out means the media coverage (in the UK at least) is more balanced and it makes for a (slightly) better viewing experience... Though its a shame for cycling in the UK that it probably wont have quite the same coverage from now on that it might have...

But overall I think the event is weaker for his absence... as there is now one less of the main GC candidates it makes the unfolding story/race potentially less interesting (if he was going to piss everything his absence would make it more interesting mind - but I dont think it was going to be that simple for him this year...)

From a 'personality' point of view, I liked Froome - he just got his head down and did his job as best as he could - and I very much admire him for that. I got the impression he is his own man and I respect him for that.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 11, 2014, 09:17:32 pm
Shit, isn't that...
https://mobile.twitter.com/marcelkittel/status/487643872768839680/photo/1
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 13, 2014, 09:52:23 am
What do we think of Nibs then? Outwardly he looked like he was controlling Contraband nicely but did end up giving him a few seconds.

Wishing I hadn't taken Kadri out of my fantasy team now!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 13, 2014, 09:59:42 am
Think we won't know till Friday at chamrousse. First long climb to a finish for bertie to try and take some real time. Would like to see nibs have a go on weds on the descent.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: danm on July 13, 2014, 11:51:02 am
Kadri was pretty complimentary about Yates yesterday, describing him as very, very strong. Great potential for a youngster.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 14, 2014, 03:00:33 pm
Ooft.

Contador abandons after crash. What an unpredictable tour so far...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 14, 2014, 03:17:37 pm
Harsh. It's sounding like he crashed because his frame snapped! Rather than snapping as a result of the crash. Haven't found a clip yet to confirm. If it turns out that's is the case it's pretty unusual and a pretty poor ad for Specialized high end frames.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 14, 2014, 03:18:26 pm
I guess this leaves Nibs as favourite.. though is this a bad thing that there is one clear leader/rider now?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: slackline on July 14, 2014, 03:59:46 pm
(http://i.imgur.com/4g6LfWS.jpg)

(Guessing its not from this year)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 14, 2014, 04:01:32 pm
I guess this leaves Nibs as favourite.. though is this a bad thing that there is one clear leader/rider now?

He may now become favorite but he is far from the only GC contender left....Porte and Kwiatkowski will probably be his main challengers now....I expect Porte will attack late in today's stage, especially now Contador has gone.

Tony Martin has had another amazing day at the head today. Beast.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 14, 2014, 04:41:19 pm
Harsh. It's sounding like he crashed because his frame snapped! Rather than snapping as a result of the crash. Haven't found a clip yet to confirm. If it turns out that's is the case it's pretty unusual and a pretty poor ad for Specialized high end frames.
It's now being reported he hit a rock or a pothole and crashed, destroyed his shoe in the crash.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 14, 2014, 05:43:24 pm
I also read on Twitter that it might have been a spare bike coming off the roof of support car and landing in front of him.... bad luck if that's the case.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 14, 2014, 06:56:19 pm
I also read on Twitter that it might have been a spare bike coming off the roof of support car and landing in front of him.... bad luck if that's the case.

From the Grauniad:

Quote
There were rumours that Contador’s bike frame had snapped, causing him to fall. It was also suggested that a bike had fallen off the team car and on to Contador. Both were denied by Saxo-Tinkoff. Once TV cameras had missed the crash, speculation was inevitably going to follow.

Later the Belgian rider Jurgen Van Den Broeck confirmed that Contador had crashed trying to overtake the peloton on the descent of the Petit Ballon, when he hit a pothole in the road at 65kph and flew over his handlebars.

It took time for the medical team to reach him and for his right knee to be wrapped. Time too, for his bike to be fixed and cleats altered. When Contador finally got moving he had lost four minutes on the peloton. Progress was interrupted twice more: to talk to his Saxo-Tinkoff sporting directeur Bijarne Riis, and then to speak to the medical wagon.

It was all to no avail. Contador kept going for another 20km but with 77km of the stage remaining he decided to abandon.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: bigtuboflard on July 14, 2014, 07:54:19 pm
Broken tibia by all accounts. Fairly tough bloke for getting back in his bike and riding for another 30 minutes or so with that. Proves just how hard these riders really are


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 14, 2014, 08:27:56 pm
I bet Nibs can't believe what's happened - or wonder what's going to happen to him!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mark s on July 14, 2014, 09:09:13 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4noVi-OdSg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4noVi-OdSg)

no one can say anything about Nibalis bike handling,some of the vids of him descending are amazing.

watching a race not long ago (cant remember which) they were on a big dangerous descent and nibali started going for it and a few were trying to stay with him.the commentators said there is going to be a serious crash here if they try and keep up with nibali as he is the best.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 14, 2014, 09:28:03 pm
Just watched the highlights.  Great racing today.  Feel for the riders blowing up on the climbs.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mark s on July 14, 2014, 09:57:50 pm
martin went like his wheels suddenly went square.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 14, 2014, 10:05:55 pm
Quality interview with Martin, says that he'd chosen the foot of the penultimate climb as his finish line! Such a beast and a selfless team rider.

http://www.itv.com/tourdefrance/video-tony-martin (http://www.itv.com/tourdefrance/video-tony-martin)

I feel sorry for Nibs, if he does go on to win it's always going to be a bit hollow with the two (on paper) favourites missing.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: 205Chris on July 14, 2014, 11:15:09 pm
I feel sorry for Nibs, if he does go on to win it's always going to be a bit hollow with the two (on paper) favourites missing.

Do you think it was a hollow victory for Wiggins then? Contador banned, Schleck injured and Froome following team orders in 2012?

At least this year the main contenders made it to the start line.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Obi-Wan is lost... on July 15, 2014, 12:19:32 am
Bert's frame didn't fail. A spare got run over or hit by another car in the mêlée. Bert's first bike has black seat tube. The one with the frame in two pieces has a yellow seat tube.
http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/07/tinkoff-saxo-tangle-with-belkin-bikes-identified-as-cause-of-snapped-contador-frame/ (http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/07/tinkoff-saxo-tangle-with-belkin-bikes-identified-as-cause-of-snapped-contador-frame/)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Falling Down on July 15, 2014, 08:42:06 am
Highlights said he crashed at 65kph and left a 100m skid mark on the Tarmac  :sick:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 15, 2014, 09:15:27 am

Do you think it was a hollow victory for Wiggins then? Contador banned, Schleck injured and Froome following team orders in 2012?

At least this year the main contenders made it to the start line.

Of course not, Bradley is British so entirely different rules apply, he also had the advantage of having his biggest GC threat on a radio controlled leash! ;)

I'm waiting for Horner to get a special delivery and bring some of that magic from last years's giro!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: iain on July 15, 2014, 03:44:21 pm
Highlights said he crashed at 65kph and left a 100m skid mark on the Tarmac  :sick:

Saw that, I can't believe he cycled over another cat 1 with a broken leg before he stopped. Utterly mental and grimly inspiring at the same time.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 15, 2014, 05:29:49 pm
Not Spartacus as well.... :(
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cancellara-pulls-out-of-tour-de-france (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cancellara-pulls-out-of-tour-de-france)

19 riders have now withdrawn in 10 stages, hopefully that was the early rush and the majority now make it to Paris.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 20, 2014, 12:17:53 pm
Call me an old cynic but we seem to have a Yellow jersey holder who barely seems to get out of breath whilst riding everyone off his wheel. Where have I seen that before. :-\
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 20, 2014, 01:12:08 pm

Call me an old cynic but we seem to have a Yellow jersey holder who barely seems to get out of breath whilst riding everyone off his wheel. Where have I seen that before. :-\


Last year... ;)  though to be fair Froome had a few moments where he seemed human - Nibs hasn't so far - maybe he's not been pushed enough. I'm sure someone somewhere is measuring his VO max blah blah and working out pro and against arguments...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: 205Chris on July 20, 2014, 03:03:38 pm
Call me an old cynic but we seem to have a Yellow jersey holder who barely seems to get out of breath whilst riding everyone off his wheel. Where have I seen that before. :-\

I do hope there's nothing suspicious going on. Unfortunately most of the people who would be taking the fight to Nibali (Froome, Contador, Quintana etc.) are out or didn't start.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rossydoodle61 on July 20, 2014, 09:30:43 pm
I found myself in the same situation watching the last 10km of stage 14. It's such a shame that when Nibali brilliantly powered away up that climb at the end of the race, the thought 'I hope he's not doping' was at the back of my mind.

I've just read The Secret Race and I'm now half way through David Millar's book. They both show just how much a part of the sport / lifestyle / culture it was. I suppose as I've only got into cycling in the past year or so, it's difficult to appreciate how much, if anything, has significantly changed since the 90's / early 00's doping scandals.

Contador is one of the biggest names in the game, and we know what happened to him. That was all too recent for the history books...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mark s on July 22, 2014, 09:44:35 pm
why do people automatically assume someone is on drugs just because they are a good cyclist or better than anyone else.
unless someone is caught they are clean.

taking drugs and cycling around france for three weeks sounds a great way of spending your summer
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 22, 2014, 10:10:56 pm
taking drugs and cycling around france for three weeks sounds a great way of spending your summer

:D
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 22, 2014, 11:18:01 pm
unless someone is caught they are clean.

Lance never failed a drugs test.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: slackline on July 23, 2014, 10:26:55 am
Fairly pointless statistics on Le Tour (http://freakonometrics.hypotheses.org/15920)  :geek:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 24, 2014, 04:09:56 pm

Call me an old cynic but we seem to have a Yellow jersey holder who barely seems to get out of breath whilst riding everyone off his wheel. Where have I seen that before. :-\


Last year... ;)  though to be fair Froome had a few moments where he seemed human - Nibs hasn't so far - maybe he's not been pushed enough. I'm sure someone somewhere is measuring his VO max blah blah and working out pro and against arguments...

I have had exactly the same feelings during the last few stages, and today is no different....

Dominant doesn't really do it justice. Not even a hint of weakness so far in almost three weeks makes it difficult to have no doubts whatsoever...

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Footwork on July 24, 2014, 04:23:29 pm
yeah +1

The tour is supposed to be a gruelling mess. The weather has been horrid at the start, wet and miserable followed by heat waves. Wonder what the commentators say off mic
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 24, 2014, 05:07:33 pm
Not that I don't share others doubts, but let's be honest, nibs is riding away from the second tier really, the three people I'd expect to give him trouble aren't here. Anyone seriously surprised nibs is significantly better than, eg, bardet?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 25, 2014, 07:52:00 am
Exactly. Its reasonable to have doubts when somebody is so clearly streets ahead in the race, but people seem to have forgotten that we're watching a team leader who has won both the Giro and the Vuelta race against a bunch of domestiques and people who were never in a million years expected to make the podium.

If he was losing time or getting dropped by these guys we'd be asking what the hell he was playing at - and probably accusing his rivals of doping for good measure!

If we want to see a proper race next year then just persuade Brailsford and Tinkoff to get Bertie and Froome a set of these:

(https://www.thebikefactory.co.uk/img/pds2/medium/Adjustabilisers.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 25, 2014, 08:07:29 am
OK - so all this implies that there are only 3 or 4 people in the world in the 'elite' group of road cycling - then the rest are just varying shades of domestique? non? Are other sports stratified to such an extent? In athletics for example is there such a top few and the rest are also rans (but also rans by a distance)...?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 25, 2014, 08:40:11 am
He has a Manager who was Marco Pantanis back in the day and his Director got banned for drugs/blood doping and is one of the few who has never come clean about it.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Plattsy on July 25, 2014, 09:02:57 am
Thinking about it there is often a dominant athlete in a discipline and sometimes there are great rivalries between 2 or 3 athletes. Can't think of many instances where the winner of a race could come from a group of athletes greater than a handful. Maybe male triathlon at the moment where there are 4 or 5 potential winners depending on the length. e.g. sprint tri's could see a winner from Gomez, Mora, Murray, Brownlees and the Portugese dude who's name escapes me.

Actually having said that the shorter the discipline the greater the number of potential winners. Don't often see a blanket sprint finish in a marathon.

This guy has some views on the performances from this year.
http://sportsscientists.com/ (http://sportsscientists.com/)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: slackline on July 25, 2014, 09:24:45 am
Are other sports stratified to such an extent?

Adam Ondra.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 25, 2014, 09:36:22 am
Not that I don't share others doubts, but let's be honest, nibs is riding away from the second tier really, the three people I'd expect to give him trouble aren't here. Anyone seriously surprised nibs is significantly better than, eg, bardet?

Not surprised he has been able to dominate a lot of the field (especially given that the main challengers are relatively inexperienced in Grand Tours), but the way he has dominated Valverde on stages where you would expect Valverde to shine has made Valverde looking distinctly average...

Hopefully Nibali, Froome, Contador and Quintana all ride the Tour next year and we see them all make it through the three weeks to really see how impressive Nibali's form has been this year. He can obviously only respond to what he is faced with and losing Froome and Contador has made it less of the spectacle it promised to be...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 25, 2014, 12:18:57 pm
Its not that he's riding away from the so called second tier, its that he is doing it barely getting out of breath or breaking in to a sweat.
Yesterday he caught the second guy on the road then attacked so fast it made the other guy look like he was not moving. All on a gradient between 7% and 10% which they were on for 30 mins and not once did he appear to be breathing heavily.
It all looks like the Armstrong days.
Cycling weekly had an article pointing out there is a distinct lack of press questioning around drug use with Nibali compared to the 3 degree that Wiggins and Froome got.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 25, 2014, 12:50:19 pm
OK - so all this implies that there are only 3 or 4 people in the world in the 'elite' group of road cycling grand tour cycling - then the rest are just varying shades of domestique? non? Are other sports stratified to such an extent? In athletics for example is there such a top few and the rest are also rans (but also rans by a distance)...?

Those same 3 or 4 people will not be so dominant in sprints, time trials (to an extent, unless your name is Bradley Wiggins), single day classics (again to a certain extent) etc
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 25, 2014, 12:54:22 pm
Its not that he's riding away from the so called second tier, its that he is doing it barely getting out of breath or breaking in to a sweat.
Yesterday he caught the second guy on the road then attacked so fast it made the other guy look like he was not moving. All on a gradient between 7% and 10% which they were on for 30 mins and not once did he appear to be breathing heavily.
It all looks like the Armstrong days.
Cycling weekly had an article pointing out there is a distinct lack of press questioning around drug use with Nibali compared to the 3 degree that Wiggins and Froome got.

Very true, he looks so relaxed it raises questions.... however his time up the Hautacam yesterday was only the 27th fastest in tour history....

The media coverage is very strange, however I think teams like Sky and Garmin etc, who have a very clear no doping stance take a lot of the flak sometimes...whereas is reality it should really be the teams who don't come out and make clear statements of intent against doping who should be questioned....Astana are a perfect example, along with Tinkov Saxo.

There have been questions about Nibali's potential associations with Ferrari in the past, so like most riders, he shouldn't be put on a pedestal as squeaky clean just yet...

(for the record I really hope what we are seeing can and should be believed)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: 205Chris on July 25, 2014, 01:53:16 pm
The media coverage is very strange, however I think teams like Sky and Garmin etc, who have a very clear no doping stance take a lot of the flak sometimes...whereas is reality it should really be the teams who don't come out and make clear statements of intent against doping who should be questioned....Astana are a perfect example, along with Tinkov Saxo.

 :agree: Tinkoff Saxo have had three stage wins this year without their team leader. Including Micheal Rogers who only last year failed a doping test for clenbuterol later to be cleared following an investigation where he claims he ate contaminated meat.

Excuse sound familiar?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Stubbs on July 25, 2014, 01:58:16 pm
?

 :agree: Tinkoff Saxo have had three stage wins this year without their team leader. Including Micheal Rogers who only last year failed a doping test for clenbuterol later to be cleared following an investigation where he claims he ate contaminated meat.

Excuse sound familiar?

Do you think they would have let off one rider but not another if the circumstances were the same? There's a big problem with Clen contamination of meat in China http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/04/news/ban-rogers-clenbuterol-case_325084 (http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/04/news/ban-rogers-clenbuterol-case_325084)

When the drugs witch hunt start Twitter and FB are usually flooded with watts/kg and VAM data but as NCB pointed out, Nibs hasn't actually produced any particularly amazing times in the mountains, he's spent most days just sitting on the second tier riders and then having a dig at the end. I think that if Froome, Quintana and Contador were present he may look quite pedestrian in comparison.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: moose on July 25, 2014, 03:27:46 pm
I saw some output figures for Nib suggesting Riis' record would have beaten him by 1 km! That the podium places are being fought out by cyclists who beforehand were just viewed as decent white jersey prospects says it all.  Nibs has been very decisive and visually impressive but nothing to alarm WADA. A horse racing saying springs to mind "all horses look fast when racing alongside trees".
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: north_country_boy on July 25, 2014, 04:40:57 pm
Very interesting read....
http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/ (http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 25, 2014, 04:53:24 pm
Nibs performance has been quite believable and brilliant. I'd give Horner's performance in last year's Vuelta as an example of unbelievable.

He also won this tour on day five in northern France when he rode magnificently, not in the mountains. If the others can't handle the obstacles placed in front of them or indeed stay on their bikes, that's not his problem. He's taken chances to gain more time in the mountains, but he's only really needed to defend. Hats off.

Now he has all three, I'd like to see him and Quintana go head to head next year.

Incidentally, Nibali's GT performances are impressively consistent:

Giro (19th, 11th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st)
TdF (20th, 6th, 3rd, 1st)
Vuelta (1st, 7th, 2nd)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 25, 2014, 05:25:40 pm
Very interesting read....
http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/ (http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/)

Very good indeed.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: moose on July 25, 2014, 05:41:35 pm
that site is one of my regular reads - it has some very interesting features on barefoot running and disabled "blade-runners" too.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on May 29, 2015, 09:38:59 am
http://www.crankpunk.com/blogs/crankpunk/item/862-giant-alpecin-s-head-coach-kenma-says-astana-power-is-evidence-of-a-peloton-a-deux-vitesses.html
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: mr__j5 on June 22, 2015, 12:04:01 pm
I'm going to get in early this year with a very vague set of predictions.

I think that there are groups of riders that could end up in any order really so my prediction is going to not have any specific predictions.

1 & 2 : Contador & Froome. (Hopefully Contador as I dislike him the least)

3 - 8 : Quintana, Nibali, Teejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Roman Bardet, Valverde (in a vague order)

9 - 10 : Laurens ten Dam, Joaquim Rodriguez


Then obvs Peter Sagan will win the Green Jersey and probably for the next 5 years too.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: johnx2 on June 22, 2015, 12:57:18 pm
I'd swap froome and nibs but what do I know? Will it rain on the pave? Will froome hit form for the hills at the end?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on June 22, 2015, 01:35:06 pm
With the cobbles in the first week (froome), quintana not racing for ages, dodgy form (nibs, but then his dauphine was dodgy last year too), contador with the giro in his legs, I don't know what to say.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Palomides on June 22, 2015, 02:19:47 pm
Of the "big four", Contador should be tired, Froome has seemed fragile for the past couple of years (illness and injury), Quintana has to watch his back for Valverde and Nibali is on a team that seem to be regarded as well dodgy.

It could be anyone.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cowboyhat on June 22, 2015, 02:43:21 pm
Very interesting read....
http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/ (http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/)

Interesting. Last year was a funny Tour because once Froome and Contador were out Nabali was in a league of his own and rarely seemed to be stretching himself.
 
Specifically relating to his times on Hautacam and another climb, I forget which, I thought very insightful was a short interview on the cycling podcast: Dave Brailsford was asked after a stage seemingly ad hoc
'what do you think of Nabalis performance today, his time on the final climb?'
reply
'It was good, exactly what we'd expect given the conditions, about where we'd expect Chris to be'
'so not suspicious?'
'Not at all'
(I have paraphrased I don't remember it verbatim)

The implication being that Sky had figured all the power data beforehand and knew what a good clean time would be and that is what he's referring to. Thats assuming Froome is clean also and Dave Brailsford isn't also lying. I took both Nibali and Brailsford at face value.



This year the first week will be great; given what happened in the first week of TDF 2014 you have to imagine Sky and Saxo will already have the jitters about Nibali and how they stop the same scenario unfolding.

You could say both their crashes were random bad luck but more realistically they were already on the back foot trying to make up time, particularly Contador racing downhill in the wet, first week, you think he'd know better.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 14, 2016, 04:20:53 pm
Madness today! Porte and Froome crashed ibto the back of one of the motorbikes and froome left running up the hill - having had a chunk of time over Quintana at that point!  See what happens!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: chris20 on July 14, 2016, 06:42:06 pm
Madness today! Porte and Froome crashed ibto the back of one of the motorbikes and froome left running up the hill - having had a chunk of time over Quintana at that point!  See what happens!

Completely nuts! It was a great move by the 3 of them and looks like the times have now been sorted.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: rich d on July 14, 2016, 10:40:21 pm
Feel sorry for the 3 of them, they were putting time into the other GC contenders, best decision by the race commis, don't understand why people were booing at the presentation of the yellow journey, as everyone who was being distanced were losing time about 15 seconds at the time, and could well have ended with more.
They've got to look at holding crowds back on the honey spots of climbs, probably extending down from the summit.
Fair play to Froome trying to run up the mountain, been a great tour so far, Sky and Froome coming out with some different and exciting tactics and Yates, Cummings and Cav proper flying the GB flag
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: danm on July 14, 2016, 11:46:45 pm
A massive shame it couldn't have been left to the racing to sort out the final positions. Froome, Porte and Mollema had fully got the spanking of Quintana, and Yates was pulling away to join them. It could have been classic, it ended up being infamous. Right decision, but I just feel cheated out of what could have been a brilliant days racing. Chapeau to Froome for not giving up and legging it, and Yates, what is there to say? So impressed by him, hope he keeps it up!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: bigtuboflard on July 15, 2016, 08:25:14 am
Apparently you have to finish with your bike so had he crossed the line on foot his time wouldn't have stood anyway. What I can't work out from that rule though is at what point do you give him a time? When his team car with his spare bike turns up? Or one of the spare pool bikes?

There does need to be something done about the crowds on the big stage sections, it's been like this for years though and there seems a reluctance to add more barriers or better manage support vehicles and bikes. Be interesting to see if anything gets done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: bigironhorse on July 15, 2016, 08:37:05 am
It really seems like the 'fans' will end up ruining it for themselves. Part of the allure of watching cycling is that you get to find your own spot and watch the riders go past with no restriction on were you can be. If it carries on like this, places like Ventoux will end up being fully barriered and ticketed and I think that would certainly detract from the atmosphere and excitement of the race.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: dave on July 15, 2016, 08:40:36 am
I was going to ask if there is some weird historical cultural quirk in cycling that means we've got to 2016 and yet there's still fans all over the road on the TdF. It would be unthinkable in any other major sporting spectacle, regardless of safety issues. Imagine fans leaning over the table at the crucible during a frame.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: tomtom on July 15, 2016, 09:08:51 am
Time to patent a motorbike/car with some sort of soft snowplough attachment / water/cs gas dispenser that goes up in front of the riders :)

Probably exacerbated by all the fans from the sections up hill being crammed into the lower sections and only 400m of fencing.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 16, 2016, 07:13:33 pm
I see Cav's all washed up again, well past his best. :beer2:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: DAVETHOMAS90 on July 16, 2016, 08:33:14 pm
Best YouTube link I could find, for those that haven't seen it.

No. 4:

https://youtu.be/-NSY0LikGn4

 :2thumbsup:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: highrepute on July 17, 2016, 08:38:56 am
Great stuff.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy popp on June 28, 2022, 08:07:26 am
No, I don't have any predictions (weirdly there doesn't seem to be an ongoing TdF thread) but the "Grand Départ" 2022 is going right through our nieghbourhood on Friday - really looking forward to enjoying the spectacle.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: teestub on June 28, 2022, 08:23:15 am
Enjoy Andy, it was an amazing day out in the Dales when it passed through a few years ago.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on June 28, 2022, 09:17:33 am
I already have a downer on this year's tour with Cav not making the Quickstep team and missing out to Jakobsen. He looks like he has the form after an amazing win at the British championship last weekend where he had the strength to chase down all the moves on his own. Would have been great to see him win number 35 in the British champions jersey....

As for the overall it looks as though Pogacar has it all done before it starts barring an accident or mechanical, strong odds on favourite and looks on good form. Fingers crossed Vingegaard or someone else can mount some kind of a challenge and keep the race interest into the third week.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: jwi on June 28, 2022, 10:55:04 am
A suitable playlist from Fédé Française de la Lose
(https://i.imgur.com/ug4yLzj.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: TobyD on July 17, 2022, 10:42:44 pm
Can't imagine what it would have been like riding today's stage in the South of France 202km and hot enough for the authorities to spray the road with water to stop it melting...

3 British riders still in the top ten of the GC as well,  not bad.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: edshakey on July 17, 2022, 10:55:41 pm
Tuesday will be hellish too. It's been a very entertaining tour this year, will be a proper show down now Jumbo Visma have lost two riders today. Vingegaard with the time, Pogacar with the form, Thomas with the teammates; it's easily up for grabs now.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy popp on July 23, 2022, 02:52:32 pm
On tenterhooks here in Copenhagen.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 23, 2022, 04:00:04 pm
No need to worry. No way he looses that much time today. Has been a belting tour. The top two are so far ahead of everyone else.

Brilliant racing everyday though. So aggressive all day long even on the flatter stages.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: teestub on July 23, 2022, 04:31:09 pm
Agree, amazing tour, great to see the top two being on such friendly terms too.

Wout has been absolutely ridiculous.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 23, 2022, 05:08:46 pm
Wout has been absolutely ridiculous.

Jumbo have been amazing as a team!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: crzylgs on July 24, 2022, 10:52:29 am
How did I miss this thread, I love a bit of Le Tour action.

The duels between Pogacar + Vinegaard have been absolutely phenomenal. Pog relentlessly attacking trying to make up time, the ever vigilant Vinegaard alert and capable to respond to every move he made, was staggering to watch at times.

Agree Wout has been on another level. Almost winning a BRUTAL mountain stage, after dragging a break away along with him the entire stage. Only to be pipped at the post because Pog+Vin were racing so hard.

Teams have been getting exploded just about every day since the first couple of stages. Which was nicely highlighted by stage 19 where the sprint teams failed to close the break, allowing Christophe Laporte (another Jumbo rider) to jump onto the break in the final 700m (thanks to guess who... Wout riding his ass off on the front again) and then he rode on the remaining couple of break riders and the main sprinters didn't actually compete. Was such a clever bit of riding fro Jumbo, perfectly timed.

Gutted Cav wasn't there though as non of the sprinters have really shined and most really struggled to survive the mountains so I think he could have been in contention for a couple of stages at least.

All in all a glorious tour. I wonder if Wout can manage to win again today against the remaining pure sprinters?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Fultonius on July 24, 2022, 12:13:19 pm
"on another level" and TdF in the same sentence always give me pause for scepticism. How are the top guys comparing to the theoretical max human level these days? Any "superhuman" efforts?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 24, 2022, 01:27:10 pm
If you've not had your fill the Tour de Femmes starts Sunday:
https://www.letourfemmes.fr/en

It's not on ITV4 but is covered by Eurosport, GCN+ and Discovery+ I believe. I've been lucky enough to get a freebie pass from Wahoo/Le Col thanks to a heads up from elsewhere (the first 10k were free):
https://lecolwahoo.com/moreeyesonher

It might still work? I got sent my code about 23:00 on Sat evening.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: teestub on July 24, 2022, 01:42:00 pm
"on another level" and TdF in the same sentence always give me pause for scepticism. How are the top guys comparing to the theoretical max human level these days? Any "superhuman" efforts?

Despite all advances in tech, training, nutrition, staying cool (these ice vests look like they’d be great for between summer bouldering attempts), etc. the fastest climbs were still some distance behind the ‘bad times’, so I have some hope.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: crzylgs on July 24, 2022, 08:17:29 pm
"on another level" and TdF in the same sentence always give me pause for scepticism. How are the top guys comparing to the theoretical max human level these days? Any "superhuman" efforts?

Despite all advances in tech, training, nutrition, staying cool (these ice vests look like they’d be great for between summer bouldering attempts), etc. the fastest climbs were still some distance behind the ‘bad times’, so I have some hope.

I'm not a cyclist myself and really only follow Le Tour (occasionally also follow the other grand tours but it varies) but do listen to a couple of cycle podcasts each year while Le Tour is running. What Teesub said nicely explains my understanding of it also. By doing some simple napkin maths anyone can time sections of routes and figure out the watts / KG effort. Non of the figures this year seemed to raise any eyebrows from people in the know.

The really obvious phenomenon from the 'bad times' was when a rider would have a terrible day smash a couple blood bags for dinner (yum!) then come back the following day and solo an entire Alp / Pyrenees stage to victory. Nothing even close to that this year. Pog+Vin were really closely matched. Pog had one slightly bad day, got his tactics wrong chasing down Roglic without any help from his team and maybe didn't fuel well enough. Great sportsmanship though. Love that he rode off the front of the peloton today when Ineos briefly attacked just for the lolz and was beaming on the podium with the White jersey presentation.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Muenchener on July 24, 2022, 08:35:27 pm
"on another level" and TdF in the same sentence always give me pause for scepticism. How are the top guys comparing to the theoretical max human level these days? Any "superhuman" efforts?

I was listening to the Real Science of Sport podcast today. They've been cycling performance sceptics for years, but they're now saying current top (bike!) climbing performances are consistently near the upper limit of the plausible, but nowhere near Pantani-era fantasy land

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/cycling-special-the-science-of-cadence-van-der/id1461719225?i=1000557499846
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: User deactivated. on July 25, 2022, 09:28:40 am
"on another level" and TdF in the same sentence always give me pause for scepticism. How are the top guys comparing to the theoretical max human level these days? Any "superhuman" efforts?

Despite all advances in tech, training, nutrition, staying cool (these ice vests look like they’d be great for between summer bouldering attempts), etc. the fastest climbs were still some distance behind the ‘bad times’, so I have some hope.

I'm not a cyclist myself and really only follow Le Tour (occasionally also follow the other grand tours but it varies) but do listen to a couple of cycle podcasts each year while Le Tour is running. What Teesub said nicely explains my understanding of it also. By doing some simple napkin maths anyone can time sections of routes and figure out the watts / KG effort. Non of the figures this year seemed to raise any eyebrows from people in the know.

The really obvious phenomenon from the 'bad times' was when a rider would have a terrible day smash a couple blood bags for dinner (yum!) then come back the following day and solo an entire Alp / Pyrenees stage to victory. Nothing even close to that this year. Pog+Vin were really closely matched. Pog had one slightly bad day, got his tactics wrong chasing down Roglic without any help from his team and maybe didn't fuel well enough. Great sportsmanship though. Love that he rode off the front of the peloton today when Ineos briefly attacked just for the lolz and was beaming on the podium with the White jersey presentation.

Seems like the way to go is to dope then stay within the W/Kg threshold that avoids suspicion and narrowly beat your opponent, cruising to victory!

(I seem to have lost access to smileys to indicate that this is tongue in cheek)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: steveri on July 25, 2022, 09:59:42 am
Great edition of the Tour for me. Though Jumbo WERE pretty dominant, there was enough going on for it not to be a procession. Sky were slightly too strong in the olden days and it made for some defensive riding. Interesting that the final time trial was in podium order for 1,2,3 ...apart from the unclassifiable Van Aert.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 25, 2022, 12:21:59 pm
If people want to get geeky there are some interesting W/kg charts here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/cyclinggraphs

The numbers don't look totally crazy compared to the Coggan table (although I'm way outside of my comfort zone looking at this stuff in detail). Perhaps someone who knows this stuff a little better can comment?

This one perhaps gives some context:
https://twitter.com/CyclingGraphs/status/1550043829654507520?s=20&t=JnL5U-Kt-caAgVY6WInMlQ

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sdm on July 25, 2022, 01:41:42 pm
"on another level" and TdF in the same sentence always give me pause for scepticism. How are the top guys comparing to the theoretical max human level these days? Any "superhuman" efforts?

I was listening to the Real Science of Sport podcast today. They've been cycling performance sceptics for years, but they're now saying current top (bike!) climbing performances are consistently near the upper limit of the plausible, but nowhere near Pantani-era fantasy land

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/cycling-special-the-science-of-cadence-van-der/id1461719225?i=1000557499846

I'm no expert but I recall a previous episode of the RSoS podcast where they were much less positive about the possibility of the peloton being clean.

It was an episode on cycling & running performances post covid. I'm guessing it was from 2021 or maybe late 2020.

IIRC, the conclusions were:
- Running performances have improved by more than can be explained by shoe technology improvements. Part of this might be able to be explained by the non-uniform boost of the new shoes. But that doesn't go far enough unless the shoes are a lot more effective for some athletes than the manufacturers have claimed.
- Cycling individual times, power outputs etc don't look outrageous but the consistency looks very dubious. We now have GC riders out competing the specialists on stages where the specialists would previously have won. Being able to do this day after day on a grand tour looks suspicious.

They also looked at Pogacar's development as a young athlete pointing out some aspects where he has always been an outlier, possibly giving hope that all could be above board.

Apologies if any of this is from the episode you linked to, I haven't relistened to it.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Muenchener on July 25, 2022, 05:27:27 pm
Great edition of the Tour for me. Though Jumbo WERE pretty dominant, there was enough going on for it not to be a procession.

I did wonder how much Roglic's withdrawal was down to really being unable to continue, versus lack of motivation to continue in a team role as senior domestique
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Muenchener on July 25, 2022, 05:37:04 pm
- Cycling individual times, power outputs etc don't look outrageous but the consistency looks very dubious. We now have GC riders out competing the specialists on stages where the specialists would previously have won. Being able to do this day after day on a grand tour looks suspicious.

They also looked at Pogacar's development as a young athlete pointing out some aspects where he has always been an outlier, possibly giving hope that all could be above board.

Apologies if any of this is from the episode you linked to, I haven't relistened to it.

The consistency thing was mentioned, but the episode was mostly about Van der Poel's numbers from Flanders. In which context they did mention Pogacar's second place, and how unusual it is since the days of Merckx for a TdF GC rider to also be a contender in one day classics.

Body types becoming more specialised to different event types is in itself hardly surprising in any sport as it advances towards the limits of human capability. Otoh - entirely justified clouds of suspicious over cycling notwithstanding - we as climbers can't really turn round and say a once in a generation freak super talent (from Slovenia!) isn't plausible.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Snoops on July 25, 2022, 10:56:18 pm
Great edition of the Tour for me. Though Jumbo WERE pretty dominant, there was enough going on for it not to be a procession.

I did wonder how much Roglic's withdrawal was down to really being unable to continue, versus lack of motivation to continue in a team role as senior domestique

I thought he’d been found to have 2 fractured vertebrae since
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Muenchener on July 25, 2022, 11:22:01 pm
I did wonder how much Roglic's withdrawal was down to really being unable to continue, versus lack of motivation to continue in a team role as senior domestique

I thought he’d been found to have 2 fractured vertebrae since

Ah. Fair enough, hand't seen that
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy popp on July 06, 2023, 11:30:42 am
As an honorary Dane I'm obviously now totally invested in Vingegaard ... but basically still clueless about the Tour. But he seems to be looking strong.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 06, 2023, 12:04:24 pm
As an honorary Dane I'm obviously now totally invested in Vingegaard ... but basically still clueless about the Tour. But he seems to be looking strong.

He looks like the man to beat doesn't he, especially with someone like Sep Kuss to support in the high mountains.

Jai Hindley looks very exciting too, though I suspect he won't find himself being allowed into a breakaway or on anyone's wheel from now on!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 06, 2023, 12:43:43 pm
Brilliant stage yesterday and amazing that Hindley managed to sneak unoticed into the chaotic break formation.

Pog will try something i'm sure but i'm not sure after his early season injury he has the legs this year for the high mountains and long climbs where Jonas looks to be dominant.

Hindley won the Giro last year and took a 4th in the Dauphine earlier in the year so has decent form, also the Bora team have some good support riders with Buchmann, Konrad, Jungels, Politt as mountain helpers and Van Poppel, Haller to do the work on the flat and rolling terrain. Even though Jumbo are the dominant team and Jonas looks to be the class of the field Hindley has 47 seconds and now only has to follow the wheels, i'm hopeful that he can put up a good fight and make the race intresting for the full three weeks as it has been a great start to the tour.

Finally i'm really hopeful Cav can get one more victory, he looks to have decent legs in the first two sprints. First sprint wasn't really great for him being uphill and quite technical. The sprint on the race track was chaotic and he got blocked just as he was opening his sprint and then had no chance from that point onwards. Think he will be confident though as the race moves into the later stages and the mountains have sapped the energy from some of the others...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 06, 2023, 01:18:15 pm
As an honorary Dane I'm obviously now totally invested in Vingegaard ... but basically still clueless about the Tour. But he seems to be looking strong.

Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. To crack so early in the event and before the more serious mountains, he surely can't come back from that.

Looking forward to seeing whether Vingegaard Vs Hindley will be interesting.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 06, 2023, 01:27:20 pm
Be interesting to see how today pans out...if Vingegaard is as dominant as yesterday on the final climb and claims yellow, it's hard to see anyone taking it back off him.

I hope Hindley stays strong and Pogacar rallies, for the sake of keeping the GC race interesting!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 06, 2023, 04:21:46 pm
As an honorary Dane I'm obviously now totally invested in Vingegaard ... but basically still clueless about the Tour. But he seems to be looking strong.

Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. To crack so early in the event and before the more serious mountains, he surely can't come back from that.

Looking forward to seeing whether Vingegaard Vs Hindley will be interesting.
Some prediction that.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sheavi on July 06, 2023, 04:33:51 pm
"Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. "

I was thinking this might not age well  ;)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 06, 2023, 04:37:27 pm
Well that was something. Jumbo Visma threw the kitchen sink at that stage and Pogacar still took back nearly half a minute and won it.

Back to looking like the two horse race that everyone predicted.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Johnny Brown on July 06, 2023, 05:00:40 pm

Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. To crack so early in the event and before the more serious mountains, he surely can't come back from that.

Looking forward to seeing whether Vingegaard Vs Hindley will be interesting.
Some prediction that.

 :lol:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 06, 2023, 05:10:16 pm
No spoilers till after the ITV highlights!
 :chair:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Duma on July 06, 2023, 05:10:57 pm
Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. To crack so early in the event and before the more serious mountains, he surely can't come back from that.

hahahahahahahaha

I love Tadej "Mark, I'm coming for you..."
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 06, 2023, 05:22:20 pm
No reading the thread on the subject till after the ITV highlights!
 :chair:

FTFY  ;)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: teestub on July 06, 2023, 09:57:07 pm
 :agree: this! don't click on any threads about subjects you don't want spoiling, whether it's the Tour, egg chasing of the climbing world cups.

Shaping up to be another classic between the top two, kinda weird having the Pyrenees in so early.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: steveri on July 06, 2023, 10:22:41 pm
Jonas looked like he burnt some serious matches to get yellow. I’ve proper warmed to Pog after a lukewarm initial perception, he always livens things up. Crazy to think he’s still eligible for the young rider jersey. And a good Cav gag post race.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 06, 2023, 10:35:00 pm
"Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. "

I was thinking this might not age well  ;)

Just caught up.

Well well well!

 :lol:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 07, 2023, 07:33:43 am
:agree: this! don't click on any threads about subjects you don't want spoiling, whether it's the Tour, egg chasing of the climbing world cups.

Shaping up to be another classic between the top two, kinda weird having the Pyrenees in so early.

It's looking like an amazing tour so far, hope it can stay exciting and competitive for the next 2 weeks.

I was thinking what a shift it is from the early Team Sky days where you just never saw GC riders actually racing each other, and here we are on day 6 with the top 2 exposed and trading blows for the second day in a row.

For the record, I don't hold anything against Team Sky - they were trying to win and that was the most effective way to do it, the onus was on other teams to compete and make it exciting - but this is way more fun to watch.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 07, 2023, 12:47:33 pm
"Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. "

I was thinking this might not age well  ;)

Just caught up.

Well well well!

 :lol:
What’s todays prediction. Cav, Euan or Jasper.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 07, 2023, 01:15:53 pm
"Pogacar lost the tour yesterday. "

I was thinking this might not age well  ;)

Just caught up.

Well well well!

 :lol:
What’s todays prediction. Cav, Euan or Jasper.

Would love it to be Cav, think he might have to wait until the third week though when the others have suffered over some more mountains.

Today I think it will be Philipsen again, he looks like the class of the sprint field and has Van Der Poel as lead out.

For a wild card the tailwind high speed finish could suit Groenewegen.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 07, 2023, 06:13:45 pm
Electric gears :shit:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: teestub on July 07, 2023, 07:00:41 pm
Electric gears :shit:

Oh interesting, he had a wheel change at about 50km out, so maybe that fucked up his indexing slightly? I thought he had kicked too early, but that would explain why Jasper waltzed past!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: teestub on July 07, 2023, 09:11:02 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AslpQPzmns&ab_channel=LanterneRouge

didn't watch the ITV4 coverage but watching this again (love these vids) this looks like another irregular sprint from Jasper and potentially he should have been relegated for cutting off Biniam Girmay
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 07, 2023, 09:44:51 pm
Electric gears :shit:

I think they're great. Especially from SRAM.

You should watch the ITV coverage Stubs as they cover the choice of line and the lodged (failed) protests.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 07, 2023, 10:18:31 pm
I've seen more trouble in the last 10 years with electric gears than I ever saw in the 70's/80's/90's.
This might have cost Cavendish the all-time record.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 07, 2023, 10:43:07 pm
This might be of interest.
ps. Spoiler alert - his coach does not reveal all ; there is no one training secret ...
However, those of us who have been following Prof Inigo san Millan are gradually building up the picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hyx49FCjQmY
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 08, 2023, 12:59:13 pm
I've seen more trouble in the last 10 years with electric gears than I ever saw in the 70's/80's/90's.
This might have cost Cavendish the all-time record.

The same way a cable stretching at an inopportune moment could happen? Pinning it on the rear mech is also an assumption.

Let's face it, they wouldn't use electric over mechanical if that was the case.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 08, 2023, 01:18:32 pm
I've seen more trouble in the last 10 years with electric gears than I ever saw in the 70's/80's/90's.
This might have cost Cavendish the all-time record.

The same way a cable stretching at an inopportune moment could happen? Pinning it on the rear mech is also an assumption.

Let's face it, they wouldn't use electric over mechanical if that was the case.
They use what they get paid to use. Bike manufacturers and equipment suppliers pay the the teams to use their stuff. That’s why you see rebadged wheels, but you can’t really rebadge a group set
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 08, 2023, 02:41:44 pm
1. The same way a cable stretching at an inopportune moment could happen? 2. Pinning it on the rear mech is also an assumption.
1. Cables don't suddenly stretch, they do it gradually over a period of months or years, and it can be adjusted out.
2. In his interview ( after he cooled off a bit in the bus ) , Cavendish said that it went from the 11 to the 12 and back again, twice, while he was in the middle of his final sprint.

A big part of the reason for needing electric gears in the insane ( consumerism .. ? ) push to 10, then 11 and 12 sprockets on the back. Now we have sprockets made of foil , chains that cost three times as much , and batteries being thrown away or having to be recharged.
Personally I dug my heels in at 9-speed... so you can see where I stand on this !
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 08, 2023, 03:05:01 pm
It shouldn't have ended that way 😭😭😭
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 08, 2023, 03:41:30 pm
They use what they get paid to use. Bike manufacturers and equipment suppliers pay the the teams to use their stuff. That’s why you see rebadged wheels, but you can’t really rebadge a group set

Sponsors want wins. Vaughters talks about this in TdF Unchained (and the uncertainty of the EF team). I stand by my point, if electric groupsets were costing big teams wins they wouldn't be using them.

Cables do fail (stretch excessively), heck we've even see chain failures (Pinot the other year?) and I'm not really seeing the point about the fact you can adjust for cable stretch; what's the difference between needing to micro adjust an electronic mech and needing to twiddle a barrel in a race scenario? Both aren't going to be helpful during a sprint finish (whereas you can adjust electronic without hanging out of a car window and sticking your fingers near some spokes). A mechanical is a mechanical.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 08, 2023, 09:16:17 pm
It shouldn't have ended that way 😭😭😭

Gutted  :'(
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 08, 2023, 09:49:24 pm
Terrible
Maybe they can persuade him to postpone his retirement.
He was the fastest rider on the sprint yesterday.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 08, 2023, 10:50:40 pm
A mechanical is a mechanical.
I take your point that you can adjust either, but you have much closer sprocket spacings nowadays and more failure modes with electronic.
I have been following cycling since 1978, and it's only in the last 10 years that I've seen people rolling along trying to ride in the 11 sprocket, waiting for team support. I have never broken a gear cable in 45 years of riding.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 08, 2023, 11:57:43 pm
I broke one six weeks ago. It broke in the shifter after a hamfisted change when I was riding back from the scene of my wife's crash.

Anyhow, mechanicals are a shit way for a race to be decided, I'm sure we can agree on that!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 09, 2023, 09:39:20 am
I broke one six weeks ago. It broke in the shifter after a hamfisted change when I was riding back from the scene of my wife's crash.

Anyhow, mechanicals are a shit way for a race to be decided, I'm sure we can agree on that!
Going off topic. Shimano 11 speed shifters are apparently are prone to fraying at the nipple. So the inner cable needs to be changed about once a year.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 09, 2023, 10:47:12 am
Puy de Dôme should be exciting today, almost guaranteed Vin-Pog action at the finish.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 09, 2023, 12:32:02 pm
Terrible
Maybe they can persuade him to postpone his retirement.
He was the fastest rider on the sprint yesterday.
He’s already been offered the chance to postpone his retirement.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 09, 2023, 01:59:31 pm
Fantastic , yes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/66147017

Just watching today's stage, should be a good one.

Has anyone made a prediction for where Pidcock will finish overall ?
I think his target is top ten, but I'll stick my neck out and say he'd like to be higher so I'll say eighth.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy popp on July 19, 2023, 07:30:11 am
I know I don't know what I'm talking about, but yesterday might turn out to have been decisive.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 19, 2023, 08:06:15 am
I know I don't know what I'm talking about, but yesterday might turn out to have been decisive.
Possibly one of the most crushing time trial victories in the history of the race given the fairly short length of the time trial.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: remus on July 19, 2023, 08:17:24 am
I know I don't know what I'm talking about...

I think most sports commentary should probably have this prefix!

Possibly one of the most crushing time trial victories in the history of the race given the fairly short length of the time trial.

Especially given that if Vingegaard hadn't ridden Pogacar's time would have been considered pretty dominant. Wild.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 19, 2023, 08:52:14 am
Let the doping accusations commence!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 19, 2023, 09:55:56 am
It is a shame the time gap has grown so large as it was shaping up to be a brilliant last week. It was an exceptional time trail though and whilst the winning margin may lead people to consider doping Jonas had been posting some exceptional W/kg figures in earlier races this year so it isn't outside the realms of the possible especially if he was on a good day.

Excited for todays stage, wonder if Pog might go for a long range do or die attack up the Col de Loze. He has over 7 minutes to 3rd place (who is a UAE team mate as well) so can focus on purely attacking now as even if he blows up he is unlikely to drop from second place.

Talking about 3rd place it was a much improved time trail from Adam Yates and it is good seeing a Brit on the podium.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 19, 2023, 11:23:10 am
Excited for todays stage, wonder if Pog might go for a long range do or die attack up the Col de Loze. He has over 7 minutes to 3rd place (who is a UAE team mate as well) so can focus on purely attacking now as even if he blows up he is unlikely to drop from second place.

Agreed, it's a shame for the close duel to (appear to) be over, but I wouldn't put it past Pog to go for a crazy long range attack which would be great to see. He has basically nothing to lose.

Unfortunately I think the chances of it succeeding are low, Vingegaard just looks too strong and composed, and he has a great team to support.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 19, 2023, 03:53:38 pm
Reckon that is the tour done now...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Johnny Brown on July 19, 2023, 04:29:06 pm
Pogacar lost the tour today. To crack so late in the event and after the more serious mountains, he surely can't come back from that.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 19, 2023, 04:38:37 pm
Never doubt me again  :ang:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 19, 2023, 04:44:25 pm
Two almost unbelievable days from JV. Shame for Pog, but at least he was in the race at all or there would have been no GC race. Great racing till JV broke him. Let’s hope he goes for one more stage win now.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 19, 2023, 09:20:19 pm
The estimated power numbers on Lantern Rouge are quite something:

https://lanternerouge.com/2023/07/19/vingegaard-destroys-tadej-pogacar-in-week-3-tour-de-france-2023-stages-16-17/
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Fultonius on July 19, 2023, 09:58:02 pm
Few too many "incredible" and "exceptional" adjectives in that article. Doping.

There are no human freaks, I think we pretty much know the human limits and, when people are "exceptional" they are EXCEPTIONAL. Shame.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Muenchener on July 20, 2023, 08:02:11 am
Quite. The level of cognitive dissonance required to  show a graph comparing JV's climbing performance to Ulrich and Pantani without mentioning the D word is what I really find exceptional.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 20, 2023, 09:00:45 am
So if there is a new super performance enhancing drug. How come no one has heard of it and it appears that only one or possibly two teams are using it.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 20, 2023, 09:15:29 am
I've read up a bit around drug testing etc, and it seems it would be harder to get away with as much now as they did in the 90s/00s - but I don't really understand it.

Rather than being some new super-substance, is it possible that riders could be pulling the same old tricks but with smarter ways of gaming the tests?

Do TUEs have to be made public?

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Wellsy on July 20, 2023, 09:16:15 am
So if there is a new super performance enhancing drug. How come no one has heard of it and it appears that only one or possibly two teams are using it.

That happens quite a lot. There's a bit of an arms race in doping; developing new compounds which there isn't a test for vs developing new tests that pick up the newest drugs. That definitely is a thing, and it has happened in the past.

However my suspicion is that it is maybe that and maybe more just that some people don't fail drugs tests, ever, because the right people get money in their accounts. We absolutely know this happens in plenty of sports so it's not unlikely it's happening here too.

Edit: I think that probably it's not the cyclists gaming the tests (although they are, potentially) but that there is a team, a system even, by which that happens. Very few athletes dope alone.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 20, 2023, 09:31:19 am
So in a sport where riders move teams on a regular basis they are not taking with them their knowledge of these new drugs.
Chris Froome was accused of doping all the time he was with Sky yet he appears not to have passed on his knowledge to his new team Israel.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Wellsy on July 20, 2023, 09:34:09 am
The riders may not know exactly what they are taking, they certainly wouldn't know how to synthesise it, or how it's unique from a chemical perspective. That is if they are using designer drugs and not systemic test failure avoidance techniques.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: cofe on July 20, 2023, 10:03:57 am
I really hope it's all legit as I love watching bike racing (and have done since I was a kid), but it shows the cloud of years gone by still hangs over cycling. Jumbo had one hell of a rest day and it's the two consecutive mega days that followed that ask the question, sadly. I think Jonas is probably the leading climber of his generation, which is usually what wins grand tours, while Pog is probably the best all-round rider, which isn't necessarily enough. Pog is the only one who can compete with Jonas, and I'm not sure Remco can either assuming he steps up to the TDF next year. Also worth remembering Pog came into the race with no racing legs after his injury. Might be more of a factor than we think.

As an aside, every July I like to remind myself I've won the TDF as many times as Lance.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 20, 2023, 10:16:27 am
You would think, given the history of cycling and the levels of suspicion, that any cheating would need to be so clandestine, to avoid the risk whistle-blowing, that even the riders themselves might not know exactly what is going on?

I'm speculating wildly here, but they must ingest all kinds of drinks and supplements...

I would very much like for it to be clean, as it's been an excellent spectacle this year, but that TT was just a bit too abnormally impressive.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sheavi on July 20, 2023, 10:30:04 am


I would very much like for it to be clean, as it's been an excellent spectacle this year, but that TT was just a bit too abnormally impressive.
[/quote]

Not a bit too abnormally impressive; it's totally abnormal.  Unfortunately I think we all know what's happening.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 20, 2023, 10:54:26 am
Say it ain't so, Jonas.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: petejh on July 20, 2023, 11:12:21 am
Being that they've just spent 3-4 days static location in very closely proximity to a 4800m high piece of land, might it have been possible to have done something weird to do with using altitude adaptation for a marginal gain? Along the lines of quickly (heli) get JV up high for a period of time that is just enough to give a benefit for the TT or the (high altitude) Queen stage? Or just use an altitude tent? Seems unlikely though in the short periods of recovery between stages, even with a rest day..
This says (https://www.irunfar.com/high-altitude-training-and-racing): ''In a widely referenced 1982 study, Squires and Buskirk found a predictable reduction in VO2 max of approximately 8% for every 1,000 meters above 700 meters.''
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 20, 2023, 11:21:24 am
Being that they've just spent 3-4 days static location in very closely proximity to a 4800m high piece of land, might it have been possible to have done something weird to do with using altitude adaptation for a marginal gain? Along the lines of quickly (heli) get JV up high for a period of time that is just enough to give a benefit for the TT or the (high altitude) Queen stage?

Think we're clutching at straws a bit when it comes to suggesting that Jumbo-Visma's secret is flying JV to the summit of Mont Blanc for a few hours on the rest day  :lol:

Or not  :???:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Dac on July 20, 2023, 11:56:56 am
I’d like to think that the current era of pro cycling is relatively clean, given the massive level of scrutiny the top riders now live with. In addition any doping would require involvement from the teams (or at the very least a very blind eye to be turned), and given the damage the sport suffered due to doping in the past I don’t thing there is the desire from teams for that to happen.

Cycling is always going to suffer from the shadow of drug use, mainly due to it’s past (once upon a time I thought Armstrong was clean, and it was just the French press who hated him). But also because of ongoing issues with the Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) system: it’s doctors employed by the team who issue TUE’s, a fairly obvious conflict of interests.

In addition if you wanted to design a sport in which to win by doping it would look very much like a cycling grand tour. Once you ignore the drama and romance whoever can consistently churn out the most watts per Kg over the 3 weeks is probably going to win. Most other sports are more dependent on skill, luck, equipment, and the like.

I’m a fan of pro cycling, despite its past, and as such I often quite aggrieved by the constant claims of doping. Compared to many sports it seems willing to proactively pursue and punish dopers, despite the reputation all damage that ensues: something that sports like athletics and football have little stomach for.

PS I suspect the worst ‘proper’ sport for doping is MMA/UFC, they may as well go full professional wrestling and say “as long as you don’t take the piss, and the fans don’t care, then it’s all good”.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 20, 2023, 12:21:52 pm
Being that they've just spent 3-4 days static location in very closely proximity to a 4800m high piece of land, might it have been possible to have done something weird to do with using altitude adaptation for a marginal gain? Along the lines of quickly (heli) get JV up high for a period of time that is just enough to give a benefit for the TT or the (high altitude) Queen stage? Or just use an altitude tent? Seems unlikely though in the short periods of recovery between stages, even with a rest day..
This says (https://www.irunfar.com/high-altitude-training-and-racing): ''In a widely referenced 1982 study, Squires and Buskirk found a predictable reduction in VO2 max of approximately 8% for every 1,000 meters above 700 meters.''

More likely that he used PED's with a short half life in the 6 hours from 11pm to 5am that they are not allowed to be tested by doping control
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 20, 2023, 12:44:10 pm
I wanted to believe at first, however after looking at the data that has been presented the last couple of days in analysis it seems Jonas was pushing close to 8W/kg, this seems to be outside the realms of possible (Jonas has now posted numbers higher than anyone from the Festina era of max doping, he is the only person to have done this doing it earlier this year and now on this TT) and is an outlier from everyone including Pog who seems to be a phenom and has been an outlier throughout his entire career. Jonas in comparison magically appeared a couple of years ago after being identified as having a very high VO2 max threshold by Jumbo Visma (the old Rabobank team with no history of doping  ;)), his results before the last couple of years were really not great...

A couple of other intresting things was him mentioning that he thought his computer was broken with the power figures that he was putting out during the TT, this generally would not happen for a pro who will know their numbers inside out. Can we read into this that the special sauce worked a bit too well. Would be intresting to see if the radio from his DS was telling him to push or if they were asking him to hold his pace/not blow up once they could see just how fast he was going (so as to not arouse suspicion). Also intresting to see Wout having to cover his face laughing at the time when Jonas crossed the line, it didn't look like disbelief. Wonder if the peleton omerta is in full swing once again and everyone already knows what is taking place.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Will Hunt on July 20, 2023, 12:45:21 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Wellsy on July 20, 2023, 12:54:06 pm
I’d like to think that the current era of pro cycling is relatively clean, given the massive level of scrutiny the top riders now live with. In addition any doping would require involvement from the teams (or at the very least a very blind eye to be turned), and given the damage the sport suffered due to doping in the past I don’t thing there is the desire from teams for that to happen.

Cycling is always going to suffer from the shadow of drug use, mainly due to it’s past (once upon a time I thought Armstrong was clean, and it was just the French press who hated him). But also because of ongoing issues with the Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) system: it’s doctors employed by the team who issue TUE’s, a fairly obvious conflict of interests.

In addition if you wanted to design a sport in which to win by doping it would look very much like a cycling grand tour. Once you ignore the drama and romance whoever can consistently churn out the most watts per Kg over the 3 weeks is probably going to win. Most other sports are more dependent on skill, luck, equipment, and the like.

I’m a fan of pro cycling, despite its past, and as such I often quite aggrieved by the constant claims of doping. Compared to many sports it seems willing to proactively pursue and punish dopers, despite the reputation all damage that ensues: something that sports like athletics and football have little stomach for.

PS I suspect the worst ‘proper’ sport for doping is MMA/UFC, they may as well go full professional wrestling and say “as long as you don’t take the piss, and the fans don’t care, then it’s all good”.

I would like to think cycling is cleaner than it was. I'm not particularly sure it is though.

That said I would not single cycling out, I think many if not all sports have the same problem.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: remus on July 20, 2023, 01:43:34 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.

Easier said than done. A crash in a later stage could quickly eat in to any lead, and you'd feel a bit of a dunce if you lost it because you held back earlier on to make yourself look less dominant.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Johnny Brown on July 20, 2023, 02:58:40 pm
Quote
him mentioning that he thought his computer was broken with the power figures that he was putting out during the TT

This stuck out to me too. Very weird, or suspicious.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 20, 2023, 05:24:58 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.

Easier said than done. A crash in a later stage could quickly eat in to any lead, and you'd feel a bit of a dunce if you lost it because you held back earlier on to make yourself look less dominant.

That and he was clearly massively jacked up to give it everything. Regardless of whether there was any special sauce involved, I believe him when he said he had surprised himself by how fast he was.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 20, 2023, 05:59:01 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.

Easier said than done. A crash in a later stage could quickly eat in to any lead, and you'd feel a bit of a dunce if you lost it because you held back earlier on to make yourself look less dominant.

That and he was clearly massively jacked up to give it everything. Regardless of whether there was any special sauce involved, I believe him when he said he had surprised himself by how fast he was.

Yeah I can relate to this. In running races I've started off feeling like I'm going at a comfortable pace, looked at my watch after a mile or 2 and I'm going at the sort of pace I'd only usually manage in a interval session. Or for a climbing analogy, the way that a successful redpoint often feels easy.

I also think it would be a weird remark to make if he knew he was doping.

I'm probably in the cognitive dissonance camp, but despite the evidence I don't think he is knowingly doping. Perhaps he is unknowingly doping but again I think unlikely.

Perhaps I am just a gullible idiot.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 20, 2023, 06:44:45 pm
What no one seems to have mentioned is JV’s bike handling. He was way superior on the descents probably putting 30 seconds in to TP on these alone never mind what he gained on the rest of the corners.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 20, 2023, 06:54:07 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: moose on July 20, 2023, 07:39:20 pm
PS I suspect the worst ‘proper’ sport for doping is MMA/UFC, they may as well go full professional wrestling and say “as long as you don’t take the piss, and the fans don’t care, then it’s all good”.

IIRC Pride, an MMA organisation based in Japan, was beloved for that approach - while it was running, fans would marvel at the utter ridiculousness of it.  A while back one of their old contracts was leaked, in the drug testing section it said “Performance enhancing stimulants of steroid based family are specifically excluded from the scope of the test!!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 20, 2023, 09:08:30 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.

No doubt true, but that doesn't explain why JV's performance stands out so much from the rest of the field, and from other contemporary TTs.

You can look at this https://twitter.com/eltiodeldato/status/1681383772204171274 and come up with explanations, but it does look really odd. Pogacar's performance was a significant outlier in that TT, and he wasn't even close!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Fultonius on July 20, 2023, 09:47:03 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.

Actually, no. There was a very good documentary a few years ago and it went into the gains made since the 60s in running. Unless the science has changed since then, or it was in accurate, they were basically stating that hanian performance in the 60s was already hitting physiological limits and when you accounted for improvement sin shoes, track etc. there had been surprisingly little chbage in human performance.

I think it's a little different in cycling, especially the tour as recovery is so important, but still. If it quacks like a duck...
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 20, 2023, 10:01:58 pm
In that case how have we gone from 8c+ to 9b in the last few years it can’t be down to the improvement in climbing shoes. Or is just down to knee pads  :lol:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 20, 2023, 10:27:44 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.
Exactly. That was what I was saying on Tuesday - " if you're going to dope, then at least make it subtle, don't take the piss"
Jumbo Visma in the last week have destroyed the fragile confidence I had in cycling for the last 10 years.
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage . I don't know if anyone else caught that ?  Hopefully someone will post it on Youtube soon.
It went like this :

Daniel : "Well Tom, do you have one word you can think of, to describe Jonas's time trial win yesterday ? ... 'awesome?', 'amazing?', 'depressing?' ! ?.... "
Tom : "............. (fully 20sec of him looking uncomfortable, looking twice as if he was just about to say something, then deciding to say nothing)........ "

I discussed this with one of my cycling mates at work, and he said " Silence is golden"

Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: lukeyboy on July 20, 2023, 11:12:48 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.

Actually, no. There was a very good documentary a few years ago and it went into the gains made since the 60s in running. Unless the science has changed since then, or it was in accurate, they were basically stating that hanian performance in the 60s was already hitting physiological limits and when you accounted for improvement sin shoes, track etc. there had been surprisingly little chbage in human performance.

I think it's a little different in cycling, especially the tour as recovery is so important, but still. If it quacks like a duck...

True for running, but I'd have thought not the same for cycling? Which I know you've caveated, but still the impact of equipment and technology is much, much higher than in running, and I'd also argue that cycling was a far more niche / less professional sport compared to running, versus where it is now. The pool of people going into cycling, and hence the level of potential ability, has grown hugely.

Your conclusion may still be correct, and I admit I am on an uphill battle against the circumstantial evidence, but I think it's important to note the differences.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 21, 2023, 08:40:44 am
Earlier in the year there was a bit of spat when Tom Boonen stated that the Colnago’s that Pog rides were really crap. So given that Jumbo ride Cervelos which have always been at the forefront of aerodynamics that’s going to be yet more time gained. Plus Pog did a bike change to get rid of his lardy TT bike which will have cost him at least 10 seconds.
Where as Jumbo had worked on getting their TT bike even lighter so JV didn’t need to change bikes.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 21, 2023, 09:11:33 am
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage .

Missed that but interesting, there was another recent interview in which Pidcock said he 'didn't understand' how in the Tour they can keep going full gas every single day. I also picked up, in a little feature ITV did about Egan Bernal, a comment from his coach about how the winning standard is now notably higher than when Bernal won in 2019 (and that EB would have to be better than he was then to compete).

If you suppose that Vingegaard is doping, so are Jumbo Visma. If Jumbo Visma are on it, so must UAE be. Then you look at the fact that not much separates the Yates brothers, riding for different teams. Rodriguez is Ineos, same as Pidcock. Where does it stop? (Perhaps I'm making a false assumption here that it would be a team-sanctioned rather than individual thing). Thibaut Pinot has probably been the rider most outspoken about 'two speeds in the peloton' from that 2021 L'Équipe interview, and he sits a little way outside the top 10. I guess it isn't necessarily a case of pure clean vs doping, but potentially degrees of usage? Degrees of compromise/risk? All very muddy.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sheavi on July 21, 2023, 09:44:11 am
What no one seems to have mentioned is JV’s bike handling. He was way superior on the descents probably putting 30 seconds in to TP on these alone never mind what he gained on the rest of the corners.

Technique and levels of fatigue are linked.  Maybe TP was more tired and making mistakes. JV energy levels seem surprisingly high ;)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 21, 2023, 09:52:50 am
What no one seems to have mentioned is JV’s bike handling. He was way superior on the descents probably putting 30 seconds in to TP on these alone never mind what he gained on the rest of the corners.

Technique and levels of fatigue are linked.  Maybe TP was more tired and making mistakes. JV energy levels seem surprisingly high ;)

30 seconds is also likely to be a big exaggeration. All of the descent in that TT was before the second checkpoint, when the gap between them was 31 seconds. I doubt 30 of those 31 seconds were won on descent technique!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: sxrxg on July 21, 2023, 10:13:35 am
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage .

Missed that but interesting, there was another recent interview in which Pidcock said he 'didn't understand' how in the Tour they can keep going full gas every single day. I also picked up, in a little feature ITV did about Egan Bernal, a comment from his coach about how the winning standard is now notably higher than when Bernal won in 2019 (and that EB would have to be better than he was then to compete).

If you suppose that Vingegaard is doping, so are Jumbo Visma. If Jumbo Visma are on it, so must UAE be. Then you look at the fact that not much separates the Yates brothers, riding for different teams. Rodriguez is Ineos, same as Pidcock. Where does it stop? (Perhaps I'm making a false assumption here that it would be a team-sanctioned rather than individual thing). Thibaut Pinot has probably been the rider most outspoken about 'two speeds in the peloton' from that 2021 L'Équipe interview, and he sits a little way outside the top 10. I guess it isn't necessarily a case of pure clean vs doping, but potentially degrees of usage? Degrees of compromise/risk? All very muddy.

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

The pure clean Vs doping thing is also a point with Jumbo openly admitting to using ketones. Whilst not banned by WADA these are not allowed by the movement for credible cycling (MPCC) however not all teams or riders are signed up to this. This brings into question if other designer drugs have been developed that whilst not yet explicitly banned by WADA would be at best morally questionable for use.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 21, 2023, 10:41:04 am

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

Either hypothesis, the rest or taking PEDs, might explain a jump in performance immediately after Covid, but surely neither has any relevance now? Though I suppose that lay-off in testing might have provided freedom to experiment 'safely' with a simulated testing programme and what you could get away with?

Another musing on relative performance. There have been a few massive one-day climbing performances in this race, from riders like Kwiatkowski and Poels (neither of whom, from what I can gather, in the context of their careers, would be prime suspects for doping). But their times on the final climbs were impressively fast, and the big GC riders weren't that much faster. I don't know what this means - you could of course take the most cynical interpretation, but you could also see it as meaning that what significantly separates the big beasts from the rest is being able to do it day after day (however that can be explained). Though JV's TT is still an outlier.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Wellsy on July 21, 2023, 10:45:48 am
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage .

Missed that but interesting, there was another recent interview in which Pidcock said he 'didn't understand' how in the Tour they can keep going full gas every single day. I also picked up, in a little feature ITV did about Egan Bernal, a comment from his coach about how the winning standard is now notably higher than when Bernal won in 2019 (and that EB would have to be better than he was then to compete).

If you suppose that Vingegaard is doping, so are Jumbo Visma. If Jumbo Visma are on it, so must UAE be. Then you look at the fact that not much separates the Yates brothers, riding for different teams. Rodriguez is Ineos, same as Pidcock. Where does it stop? (Perhaps I'm making a false assumption here that it would be a team-sanctioned rather than individual thing). Thibaut Pinot has probably been the rider most outspoken about 'two speeds in the peloton' from that 2021 L'Équipe interview, and he sits a little way outside the top 10. I guess it isn't necessarily a case of pure clean vs doping, but potentially degrees of usage? Degrees of compromise/risk? All very muddy.

Of course it is possible they're all doping.

Tbh I feel like some people are rather naive on this. We know people have been tested hundreds, even thousands of times, and never failed, despite being on drugs the whole time. We know that teams and nations and so on have conspired to allow doping and test evasion. We know that doping works extremely well.

I am not saying these people are on drugs. I have no evidence. But I have no evidence the entire Chinese Weightlifting Team are on drugs and they absolutely are. This is far less sure. If they all got popped though my reaction would be less "shocking that they're on drugs!" And more "I'm amazed they got caught"
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: m.cooke.1421 on July 21, 2023, 10:54:52 am
https://twitter.com/gmoreira_esp/status/1681576978871140352?t=PsfwufRLBIJUqA99W2ZbHg&s=08
This gives a good comparison between Pogačar and Vingegaard in the time trial. UAE have been doing pretty well generally in time trials this year, I would imagine they have a pretty good TT bike but that is quite a bit heavier than their road bike.

With regards the two speeds in the peloton this could also be influenced by team budget. Some teams can't afford to put riders up in hotels at altitude for large chunks of time prior to big races. Christophe Laporte has seemed to improve considerably since joining Jumbo from Cofidis. Apparently he never did an altitude camp whilst at Cofidis. Pinot lives in the area where he grew up and gets picked up by his mum when he gets a puncture on his training rides whereas others will be spending months in a hotel atop Mount Teide in Terife or in Kolobnev's hypobaric hotel in Spain. Spending time in wind tunnels honing TT set ups is also costly and not something that all teams will be able to afford. Alternatively UAE, Jumbo, Ineos and Quickstep are not part of the MPCC whereas FDJ are.

Geraint Thomas said that his numbers were better last year when he came third than they were in 2018 when he won. This could be due to improvements in technology and knowledge about training and nutrition. It sounds like they are now consuming a lot more carbohydrates during races than they were a few years ago.

Pidcock hasn't been a GC contender in a grand tour before, who knows whether he's cut out for it.

Vingegaard went up Col de la Loze almost a minute faster than Miguel Ángel López did in 2020 and that includes him having to stop behind a car for a bit. López was dropped by his team at the end of last year due to his connection with a doctor under investigation for drug trafficking.

I have no idea if doping is going on in cycling but I think that if Pogačar had posted a similar time to Vingegaard in the TT and not blown up on Wednesday then there would be fewer questions and accusations. The race being pretty much over nearly a week out is a bit disappointing. There are lots of legitimate reasons why Vingegaard might be better than the rest of the field but it's hard to know if they are enough to explain his performance. Sky had lots of great stories about all their marginal gains but the steroids they gave Wiggins by gaming the TUE system probably made more of a difference.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: fiveknuckle21 on July 21, 2023, 11:55:53 am

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

Either hypothesis, the rest or taking PEDs, might explain a jump in performance immediately after Covid, but surely neither has any relevance now? Though I suppose that lay-off in testing might have provided freedom to experiment 'safely' with a simulated testing programme and what you could get away with?

Another musing on relative performance. There have been a few massive one-day climbing performances in this race, from riders like Kwiatkowski and Poels (neither of whom, from what I can gather, in the context of their careers, would be prime suspects for doping). But their times on the final climbs were impressively fast, and the big GC riders weren't that much faster. I don't know what this means - you could of course take the most cynical interpretation, but you could also see it as meaning that what significantly separates the big beasts from the rest is being able to do it day after day (however that can be explained). Though JV's TT is still an outlier.

I’m not sure I’m sold on your interpretation of MK and WPs results. Kwiatkowski has always, always been a strong rider as has Poels been a very, very strong climber just hidden behind working for others. I don’t think there is anything suspect about their results when they’ve spent the last two weeks soft pedalling in the peloton. It serves as a fairly useless comparison. Take Asgreen yesterday. He could put in that outrageous, once in a tour effort because, AFAIK he’s been fairly anonymous all Tour.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 21, 2023, 12:05:57 pm

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

Either hypothesis, the rest or taking PEDs, might explain a jump in performance immediately after Covid, but surely neither has any relevance now? Though I suppose that lay-off in testing might have provided freedom to experiment 'safely' with a simulated testing programme and what you could get away with?

Another musing on relative performance. There have been a few massive one-day climbing performances in this race, from riders like Kwiatkowski and Poels (neither of whom, from what I can gather, in the context of their careers, would be prime suspects for doping). But their times on the final climbs were impressively fast, and the big GC riders weren't that much faster. I don't know what this means - you could of course take the most cynical interpretation, but you could also see it as meaning that what significantly separates the big beasts from the rest is being able to do it day after day (however that can be explained). Though JV's TT is still an outlier.

I’m not sure I’m sold on your interpretation of MK and WPs results. Kwiatkowski has always, always been a strong rider as has Poels been a very, very strong climber just hidden behind working for others. I don’t think there is anything suspect about their results when they’ve spent the last two weeks soft pedalling in the peloton. It serves as a fairly useless comparison. Take Asgreen yesterday. He could put in that outrageous, once in a tour effort because, AFAIK he’s been fairly anonymous all Tour.

I didn't sell an interpretation. I said it could mean a number of things. I should have made it clearer that the reason I flagged it as interesting is only that their times on those climbs were impressively fast compared to other years on the same climbs, not because peloton riders were able to pull off one big day (which is normal in grand tours).

In contrast to what you think my interpretation was, that could equally mean that standards really are higher now.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 21, 2023, 12:31:35 pm
Maybe all the top ten riders of the classics and the grand tours should be made to go on Oprahs show. Then we might get to know what’s going on ;)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 21, 2023, 02:06:35 pm
With regards the two speeds in the peloton this could...... Alternatively UAE, Jumbo, Ineos and Quickstep are not part of the MPCC whereas FDJ are.

Pidcock hasn't been a GC contender in a grand tour before, who knows whether he's cut out for it.

Sky had lots of great stories about all their marginal gains but the steroids they gave Wiggins by gaming the TUE system probably made more of a difference.

Yes, this is the MPCC list, and you can see that most of the French teams plus Bora Hansgroer are on there. I think this explains why the French have had so little success in the big races recently ( but a great ride by the guy from AG2R on Wednesday - respect ! )
https://www.mpcc.fr/en/our-members/

Pidcock was 7th last year.

The point about Sky is part of the reason it's so odd to see Jumbo Visma so far ahead. Sky came into the scene and took a Formula 1 approach to the details, looking at everything, throwing out the old mid-20th-century dogmas, doing experiments on everything. There was a lot of low-hanging fruit back then. I don't believe their success was down to drugs, the transgressions were mostly minor and probably being doen by all teams at the time. The worst one was Wiggins taking Kenacort, that was very much NOT OK .
So my point is, in the post-Sky era, how to Jumbo Visma explain their sudden surge in performance ?

A lot of what I've read about advances recently is to do with extra carbohydrate per hour ( as Andy mentioned ) plus ketones ; but these are mainly improving endurance and recovery.
The worrying bit about what we've seen in the last week is that it's showing greater climbing speeds and hence W/kg. It looks just like a blood-boosting issue, like EPO was in the early 90's.

Perhaps it's Roxadustat ?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/cycling-banned-blood-booster-a-challenge-for-anti-doping-authorities-expert/ar-AA1e8qmo?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=04f9e3afd7f24096972d7f376fac3b3e&ei=43



Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 21, 2023, 02:15:32 pm
Maybe all the top ten riders of the classics and the grand tours should be made to go on Oprahs show. Then we might get to know what’s going on ;)

Reading around some of this stuff the other day, I stumbled on Lance Armstrong's current cycling podcast. In this he spends an segment in the middle flogging his sponsors, which are all performance boosting supplements. Irony bypass  :lol:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: m.cooke.1421 on July 21, 2023, 03:38:28 pm
Yes, this is the MPCC list, and you can see that most of the French teams plus Bora Hansgroer are on there. I think this explains why the French have had so little success in the big races recently ( but a great ride by the guy from AG2R on Wednesday - respect ! )
https://www.mpcc.fr/en/our-members/

Pidcock was 7th last year.

The point about Sky is part of the reason it's so odd to see Jumbo Visma so far ahead. Sky came into the scene and took a Formula 1 approach to the details, looking at everything, throwing out the old mid-20th-century dogmas, doing experiments on everything. There was a lot of low-hanging fruit back then. I don't believe their success was down to drugs, the transgressions were mostly minor and probably being doen by all teams at the time. The worst one was Wiggins taking Kenacort, that was very much NOT OK .
So my point is, in the post-Sky era, how to Jumbo Visma explain their sudden surge in performance ?

A lot of what I've read about advances recently is to do with extra carbohydrate per hour ( as Andy mentioned ) plus ketones ; but these are mainly improving endurance and recovery.
The worrying bit about what we've seen in the last week is that it's showing greater climbing speeds and hence W/kg. It looks just like a blood-boosting issue, like EPO was in the early 90's.

Perhaps it's Roxadustat ?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/cycling-banned-blood-booster-a-challenge-for-anti-doping-authorities-expert/ar-AA1e8qmo?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=04f9e3afd7f24096972d7f376fac3b3e&ei=43

Some of the most recent doping events in cycling feature MPCC teams; Preidler rode for FDJ when he was blood doping, Arkea's hotel was raided at the tour, Quintana was suspended from the tour for Tremadol the following year, Burgos-BH were suspended from racing due to so many doping incidents.

Pidcock didn't come 7th last year; he finished  behind the likes of Madouas. He was up there to start with but then lost a lot of time in the mountains, a bit like this year. He was riding in support of others and was fetching bottles.

Sky's biggest crime was buying up all the biggest talent and making races boring. Who knows how much benefit all the F1 approach had but if I was secretly giving riders testosterone and getting dodgy TUEs to dish out steroids I'd come up with some nice story about rounder wheels to explain the improvement.


Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: MarkJ on July 21, 2023, 04:06:50 pm

Pidcock didn't come 7th last year; he finished  behind the likes of Madouas. He was up there to start with but then lost a lot of time in the mountains, a bit like this year. He was riding in support of others and was fetching bottles.

Yes you're right, he was 16th, that's odd. I looked him up a couple of days ago and found 7th somewhere. D'Oh !
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy popp on July 24, 2023, 07:14:05 pm
And so it came to pass.

I thought this was a particularly petty, unpleasant little article: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jul/23/cycling-tour-de-france-winner-jonas-vingegaard-fails-to-win-over-public

In the meantime, looking forward to being at Rådhuspladsen for the celebrations on Wednesday afternoon.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy moles on July 24, 2023, 08:45:22 pm
That does come across as more bitter than it needs to be in reporting what is undoubtedly true about the some of the general feeling in France.

I'm not sure how I feel about there being an onus on sportspeople to be likeable. On the one hand it's really not their job, but given that their job is ultimately supported by the public's interest, in a way it sort of is. As a neutral, I would have to agree that Pogačar is way more fun and charismatic than Vingegaard, but what of it? It's hardly fair to demand that a guy change his personality. Maybe just that he rides less improbably fast time trials...

I'm not surprised if cracking has made Pog more popular in France. They don't love Pinot because he was the best.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: webbo on July 24, 2023, 08:48:02 pm
And so it came to pass.

I thought this was a particularly petty, unpleasant little article: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jul/23/cycling-tour-de-france-winner-jonas-vingegaard-fails-to-win-over-public

In the meantime, looking forward to being at Rådhuspladsen for the celebrations on Wednesday afternoon.
An article that says Marc Madiot and peanut had any hope of doing anything in tour suggest the author is clearly deluded. Pinot clearly has had more success raising goats than winning grand tours and Madiot refusal to embrace modern training techniques is why his team has not had much success in any of the GT’s. But then again it’s a French team and it’s all about the romance :hug:
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: AMorris on July 26, 2023, 02:35:39 pm
Jeez, that article is total garbage. Should we be surprised that a reserved Dane is less popular than a flamboyant frenchman in France? I love Pinot, he is amazing to watch and one of my favorite riders of the last decade. I was stood on Crans Montana on stage 13 of the Giro this year where he went berserk and attacked about a dozen times, then got angry with the guys surrounding him for not working. I love him for that, but it's not smart riding... He has huge amounts of talent and popular appeal, but I feel like he (and Madoit) get a bit too carried away with the romance of the Hinault "attack, attack, and attack again" school of French riding. It doesn't matter how much talent you have, you cannot win a grand tour in modern cycling like Hinault used to. The article appears to be subtly criticizing J{umbo/onas} V{isma/ingegaard} for the very things which win grand tours (efficiency, teamwork, preparation, consistency) and favoring things which simply do not (warmth, charm, humanity). Is there no charm or warmth or humanity in a close knit team of people working superbly together to achieve a shared goal?

Anyway, rant over. As you were!
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: andy popp on July 26, 2023, 02:56:30 pm
Waiting expectantly for the balcony appearance at Rådhuspladsen this afternoon.

(https://scontent.fcph5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/362247285_10160601749599590_7141399838651888182_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=vJOE64p_MPYAX-kVLOr&_nc_ht=scontent.fcph5-1.fna&oh=00_AfAFX2JiPtfiofxxblysTBClIQwy-d6YJp8_ytkWalGB6g&oe=64C57D0A)
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: shurt on July 26, 2023, 11:13:25 pm
And the French wonder why they havent had a Tour winner for nearly 40 years... It's great loving the beautiful loser but I'm not sure they were doing that when Fignon and Hinault were winning in the 70s and 80s.

It's a different sport now compared with then and like others have said training methods have moved on. It's impossible to win the Tour fuelled by passion alone, especially in the post Sky world. Everyone is on that bandwagon because it works.

I was having an interesting conversation with a friend about how Marc Madiot is on the one hand a bit of a tool but also that he has really held Pinot back and we were wondering how he would of got on at a more modern team. He could have been far more consistent and had a real tilt at one of the GTs. Then again he might of hated the discipline. Who knows.

It a shame about the French and Jonas. He is a bit of a cold fish, but some people are. Having followed the sport for so long its hard to be 100% sure that he is clean. I have really enjoyed the duel this year and barring an off day in the mountains and the amazing TT it could have been one of the closest ever. Would have been great for it to go down to the last day in the mountains as it was a really good stage for it. I also know that if it had been a French guy winning in this style there would be zero talk of doping as it was mainly coming from L'equipe.

I guess that's my rant to add to the pile.

For all it's flaws I'm not sure I'll ever tire of pro bike racing. I even still look back on the Pantani win fondly!!!   
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 27, 2023, 04:10:17 pm
Has everyone moved over to watching the Femmes?
https://www.letourfemmes.fr/en
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: erm, sam on July 28, 2023, 09:51:28 am
following but not watching. how do you watch it?
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 28, 2023, 11:09:01 am
Through GCN+ although the live coverage isn't 100%.

Zwift were still giving out free GCN passes for the TdFF until very recently so have a search if you don't already have a subscription.

I think the uber short highlights (5 mins) go on GCN Racing (YouTube).

Edit:
https://lifepluswahoo.com/embraceeverymoment

I managed to get a pass last year even after the first stage so there might still be some left.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: highrepute on July 29, 2023, 12:59:31 pm
https://www.youtube.com/@LanterneRougeCycling

I watch these summary videos which i find very good.

The cycling podcast also has daily episodes during the femme tour.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 29, 2023, 01:22:28 pm
I thought the Commisaires got it bang on with SD Worx; bad drafting behind the team car followed by pretty terrible driving deserved the time penalty and the ban from the remainder of the race for the driver.
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: teestub on July 29, 2023, 02:26:12 pm
I thought the Commisaires got it bang on with SD Worx; bad drafting behind the team car followed by pretty terrible driving deserved the time penalty and the ban from the remainder of the race for the driver.

Yeah totally, looked like the driver had to choose between that proper sketchy manoeuvre or slamming on the brakes and putting their rider through the back window!
 
Title: Re: Tour de France predictions
Post by: Paul B on July 29, 2023, 05:56:43 pm
Exactly, and you could see it happening. There was nowhere for the car/rider to go. It was a bit disappointing when interviewed he didn't just say "yeah, got that one a bit wrong". I haven't watched today's yet but it should be a good stage.
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