[Stubbs]

at htc cav had an entire team of top flight riders working for him and him alone, can he win with half a team, or a tired team who are busy trying to also win the gc?

I think this is the crux really, surely your GC rider has to come before your sprinter? Perhaps the deal is Cav helps Wiggo into yellow and then Wiggo and the team get Cav a gold medal?

[Dolly]

As Dave Brailsford is in charge I'm sure all of this will have been dissected and discussed at length.
I don't think Cav would sacrifice more tour stage wins "just" to get a gold medal would he ?

[mr__j5]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/editorial-how-can-sky-accommodate-wiggins-and-cavendish-at-the-tour-de-france

[Yossarian]

I was convinced that a Wiggo / Cav pairing at Sky would entail Wiggo actually targeting GC in events other than the Tour - on the basis that Wiggo probably can't win the Tour and thus their energies would be better spent getting Cav stage wins.

Wiggo could then have full team support in the Giro / Vuelta / Dauphine, etc.

But now the Tour is so tester-friendly, my theory has gone to shit.

Changing the subject slightly, are any of you guys riding any Euro sportives next year?  I'm quite keen to do the Marmotte again, and maybe the GF Sportful...

[fatkid2000]

Yoss - I think you're right. Le tour route is probably the best chance Wiggo has of getting on the podium and if goes well perhaps better.

Wiggo rode incredibly well to get Cav the rainbow jersey - I doubt there will be course again that will suit Cav so well to win the world title. Likewise perhaps next year is Wiggo's chance in le tour.

Perhaps Cav's ambitions off retaining Green will have to go on the back burner - and he'll have to let Wiggo go for GC. The only problem is Cav's ego in the mix.

[BB]

What difference will it make if Cav has one less man in his lead out? Everyone will gets the same time on the sprint stages provided you don't mess up outside the final 3km. As to the team supporting Wiggo in the mountains, how many of last years top contenders had team mates supporting them on the big days?

Who from sky supported Wiggo on the hills in 2010?

It's all moot anyway. In the end it'll probably all boil down to sponsor exposure. Unless Wiggo finishes in the top 3, Cav will likely get more cash for the team and exposure from half a dozen stage wins and the points jersey.

[Stubbs]

What difference will it make if Cav has one less man in his lead out? Everyone will gets the same time on the sprint stages provided you don't mess up outside the final 3km.

Is the difference not that this year HTC put a lot of effort into closing gaps on breakaways that didn't contain any GC contenders on the sprint stages?  You wouldn't put all this effort into stages as a team unless you wanted the stage win, if you were only interested in the GC you could just sit in the peloton as a team on those stages and save a lot of energy.

[Plattsy]

I'm going to throw my uneducated hat into the ring and say Cav will have 1 or 2 guys help out in the sprint/hills and the chasing down of breakaways
will have to be taken up by some other sprint team. Leaving a good 7 or 8 guys to help Wiggo. 

[Yossarian]

I think the point is that HTC secured Cavendish victories on stages that might well have usually been won by breakaway specialists.  He is more than capable of winning stages without a leadout train (or much of them) - his ability to position himself in the final minutes (and seconds) of a stage are unquestionable.

What needs to be remembered though is the fact that HTC chased down so many breakaways to make sure he had a shot at the sprint.  Not to mention major tactical manoeuvres like that crosswind split in Brittany a few years back - that was a major team effort.

Cav might do a Cipo and chuck it in before the hills?

[chappers]

Who from sky supported Wiggo on the hills in 2010?

exactly. no one. the reason that he finished a disappointing 24th?

who supported him in the vuelta? Froom. the reason he finished an amazing 3rd?

sky spent a good amount of money building an excellent GC team. They have some great quality climbers in there now.
i don't think you really understand the work that htc did, see stub's post, you can't chase breaks, and target gc. contador et al will be sat i the bunch with their feet up with the rest of his team around him "resting" ready for the moments where the race will be won or lost. the mountains and the testing.

Leaving a good 7 or 8 guys to help Wiggo. 

there are 9 members of a team.

[Danger]

Apologies for this post being in no particular order . . .

If GreenEdge get a Pro Tour Licence then they will do plenty of break chasing as their squad consists nearly entirely of sprinters and lead-outs.

Leaving a good 7 or 8 guys to help Wiggo. 

there are 9 members of a team.

Maybe not http://inrng.com/?p=5459


Pretty sure Thomas isn't riding the tour next year as he is focusing on the olympics.

After his poor showing this year people seem to be forgetting about Contador, if he has the same form he had for the Giro this year he will crush everyone. Of course he may be banned.

Changing the subject slightly, are any of you guys riding any Euro sportives next year?  I'm quite keen to do the Marmotte again, and maybe the GF Sportful...

Yes! I am doing Paris - Roubaix

[Palomides]

It's 2012 !!!

My predictions for this year:

The GC contest will be a Wiggo/Evans grind-a-thon in the mountains with them both doing turbo-diesel paces until it's just them left.

There will be occasional flashes of interest as FrankS, Gesink, Westra, Nibali, Rolland and Van den Broeck attack but only get about 10s.

Final podium will be Evans, Wiggins and one of the above in that order (after Wiggins starts to look ragged in the third week).

Hesjedal and Scarponi will put in a lot of effort, but then realise that they are both still cooked after the Giro.

Greipel will win more sprint stages than Cav. Farrar will be second or third three times. Sagan will win more stages than anyone expects and take the green jersey (and then repeat this every year for the next 10 years).

[Duma]

No Samu? I'd say he's best of the rest after wiggo/cuddles - can climb well enough to put ime into those two on the uphills, goes down well enough to gain a bit more on Brad, and not a bad TT. Still won't be enough though. Barring crashes etc, Wiggins should take it. Cadel might gain a few seconds on the lumpy stages in the first week and on the downhills, but isn't strong enough on the hills to crack Brad if his form holds, so the TT's will decide. Scarponi and Ryder haven't a prayer. Rolland? 

Agreed on the sprinters, though I reckon most expect Sagan to win a few stages. Wouldn't suprise me if Cav doesn't finish in order to build for the Olympics.

It's a shit parcours, not coz of the amount of ITT kms, but because there's not enough MTF to balance them.

[dave]

Any predictions for what's going to emerge as the most popular doping method this year? Is EPO still cool or is it all about blood doping now?

[Palomides]

EPO micro-dosing is apparently in use (widespread or isolated depending on how cynical you're feeling). But there's some doubt as to whether it works or not.

Last year there were a couple of reports about French authorities finding packaging for weight-loss drugs in hotel bins, so I guess it's all SlimFast and monkey blood these days.

[moose]

Any predictions for what's going to emerge as the most popular doping method this year? Is EPO still cool or is it all about blood doping now?

Blood doping?! Get wid the program grand-papa... it's all about licking the waxy monkey tree frog nowadays:

http://www.inquisitr.com/258898/frogs-being-used-as-performance-enhancing-drug-in-race-horses/

By the way, TdF preview podcast on 5Live:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/5lspecials

[mr__j5]

Definitely agree on the GC predictions. I'd go for:

Wiggins
Evans
Nibali
F Schleck

after that it's hard to know what state any of them are in.

As for green, I think Sagan will win less than expected. He isn't that fast on pure flat stages against a proper sprint train. Matt Goss should have a GreenEdge train to sit on and keep coming 2nd as Cav jumps off his wheel. Griepel will win at least one.

I think Farrah is gone as a sprinter and won't achieve anything. He is in the awkward position of being not as quick as the top sprinters and not Boonen enough for the classics like stages.

[ShortRound]

 not Boonen enough for the classics like stages.

He should get some cocaine.

Based on early season performances I think Greipel will be favorite for the pure bunch sprint stages with Cavendish getting more joy on the lumpier-but-still-ending-in-a-bunch-sprint stages based on his weight loss for the Olympics:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cavendish-not-eyeing-tour-de-france-green-jersey

Can't freaking wait for it all to start.

[Stubbs]

Sagan seems to have done pretty well so far this year just sitting on other people's trains then breaking off to power to the line, although he hasn't been head to head against Cav and Geipel yet, should be exciting for sure!  Worth checking out https://twitter.com/#!/tweetersagan for a Chuck Norrisesque take on Sagan

[Richie Crouch]

Great to see cav get a win on the board after reading some of the doubters on the Bbc feed writing him off in favour of Sagan, greipel, goss..etc and to win zero stages without his lead out train!

[Duma]

Fine finish today, great stuff from Cav to wheel hop all the way up to Greipel given how far back he was at 1km. Sagan's still gonna walk the green jersey tho.

[danm]

Probably right about Sagan for the green, as I don't think the green is on Cav's radar this year. I expect he'll go for as many stage wins as he can without burying himself, and without drawing off any team support from Wiggo, whilst hoping to keep fresh and in form for the Olympics.

[erm, sam]

Just watching the hightlights from today, what about Cav in the first sprint? Beast!

[Dolly]

Agree, talking whilst overtaking.
Class
Have a look at @tweeterSagan for a gentle but funny pisstake of the new mr bigshot

[mrconners]

Just watching the hightlights from today, what about Cav in the first sprint? Beast!

Beast indeed.

What about Griepel in todays sprint. Talk about putting some effort in, the bloke is a monster.
Shame about Sagans celebrations the day before, pillock. But then when I was 22 I was a pillock as well.


Let the madness continue.