[Wellsy]

I completely get where you are coming from, the threat is very real!
Part of me thinks it’s time to make a stand, he’s only gonna become more emboldened by the west standing down and letting this happen.

If we had dug our heels in 8 years ago this probably wouldn’t be where we are at, bullies can’t be allowed to just carry on because people are afraid of the consequences (I doubt he will start a nuclear war, although he might…) I just don’t see how we can allow this to happen.

You accept that the threat of total global annihilation is very real, but you think it's maybe worth taking that risk. That's the whole of the history of our species (and many others), all art, all love, all music, all our children, all possible futures, all our stupid rock climbs. Really?
No paths from here are good. But mankind only has to be wrong about the intentions of a despot with nuclear weapons once.

So what, we let him crack on, sorry Ukraine you are on your own cos we are scared of what the big bad bully might do…. Is all the love, art and our children not worth standing up for? Are you saying we should bury our heads in the sand?

The threat is no more real than it’s ever been, do we allow him to hold the whole world to ransom.

The way it works is like poker, and he’s as stony faced as they come, play him at his own game or we stand to get bluffed out of a hand that’s ours. I don’t believe he would push the button, I do believe he will bluff the whole way until we call him.

It’s what he did in Crimea and Syria. The west has a bigger and better military if we are United, he knows that. He’s playing the fear we all have it’s time to stand up to him.

I’m not saying immediate all out war, but sanctions aren’t gonna cut it. We need to slowly ramp it up! Special forces, advisors and equipment. I genuinely think we’ve let Ukraine down.

It’s time to stand up for what we believe is right. If people hadn’t done that in 39/40 where would we be right now?

I mean we are all a bit scared of the idea of nuclear war, yes. I think probably the Ukrainians would not be exactly better off if that happened even given the shit situation they're in now.

Incidentally I think Putin is stupid if he things he can actually subdue the majority of Ukraine long term. This invasion has fired up their desire to turn away from Russia, not destroyed it.

Stalin either starved out, or shipped out entire populations to the  Siberian wastes…

Absolutely he did, and the Chechnyans were deported in another context etc. But Russia isn't the USSR, and this isn't Trotsky vs Maknovia either. I don't think Russia has the capability to actually hold Ukraine and occupy it in totality. I said before the invasion that I don't think they'll find it as easy to conquer the country in the first place as some people assumed. There's a lot of Ukrainians and they are very willing to fight.

[Wellsy]

I'll say this as well I'm quite impressed by Zelensky too. Broadcasting from the streets of Kyiv, making some great speeches, stuck around to lead and organise the Ukrainian fight, very active diplomatically and securing lots of arms and aid. He seems to have a lot of energy and fire for someone who must have a profoundly shit job right now.

[Oldmanmatt]

I'll say this as well I'm quite impressed by Zelensky too. Broadcasting from the streets of Kyiv, making some great speeches, stuck around to lead and organise the Ukrainian fight, very active diplomatically and securing lots of arms and aid. He seems to have a lot of energy and fire for someone who must have a profoundly shit job right now.

Yes, I think he is aware of his limited life expectancy too and the effect his martyrdom would have going forward. I suppose he understands an audience (not to diminish what appears to be genuine bravery) in a way that Putin does not and cannot. I imagine Zelensky is already developing a fan base within the discontented across Russia’s sphere of influence and even within the country itself.
It must be highly probable that Putin has sown the seeds of his own demise here.
I understand your point about Putin not being Stalin et al, however, I’m not sure that he realises this.
I think he might be actually, genuinely, taken aback; that the Ukrainian people have not welcomed in his troops
They deployed less than half of the accrued forces for the initial assault. They seem slow in bringing forward the reserve forces, even three days later. To my uneducated eyes (and to much of the commentary I’ve consumed by supposedly more knowledgeable pundits), it seems hesitant.
I can’t imagine him backing out, or not eventually taking control of much of the country, but I can’t believe it was expected to be this difficult and it looks like any short term victory will cost him dearly both to achieve and maintain.

All it takes, is some Generals son, some Oligarchs beloved nephew (or what ever), one of his security detail’s secret lover/kid brother/ high school buddy, to be killed and Putin will be watching every sip he takes for poison. Frankly, he probably already is, but this has the  potential to take it to whole new levels.

[mrjonathanr]

Yes, I think he is aware of his limited life expectancy too and the effect his martyrdom would have going forward. I suppose he understands an audience (not to diminish what appears to be genuine bravery) in a way that Putin does not and cannot. I imagine Zelensky is already developing a fan base within the discontented across Russia’s sphere of influence and even within the country itself.

It must be highly probable that Putin has sown the seeds of his own demise here.

Zelensky is a very brave man whose example is going to be an ongoing source of inspiration. Amazing. I suspect Putin is headed towards a Pyrrhic victory, where Russia’s future looks weakened and highly dependent on China, both diplomatically and economically.

[andy popp]

It must be highly probable that Putin has sown the seeds of his own demise here.

Whatever happens in the short term, which I fear will be terrible, it seems increasingly obvious that Putin/Russia (not the same thing, but not completely separable either) have "lost" this war. Certainly they have lost morally, in so far they still possessed any real moral standing. I think that in the long run they will lose militarily, if winning means fully and permanently incorporating Ukraine into Russia. They have lost diplomatically, both with those already viewed as antagonists (EU, Nato) and those that might have been viewed as more friendly. Whatever short term dislocations there are I can't imagine China minding a weakened Russia (totally amateur punt there so would be interested in other opinions welcome). Worthwhile allies are surely going to be very hard to find in the future, I would guess. They will lose economically. Perhaps I will be proved wrong, but it's very hard to see Russia emerging from this as anything but a more impoverished, poorer, weaker country. One risk is that means it will also be more bitter, more insular, and more unmoored from international norms and rules.

Edit: cross-posting. What mjr said with much greater brevity.

[Oldmanmatt]

Yes, I think he is aware of his limited life expectancy too and the effect his martyrdom would have going forward. I suppose he understands an audience (not to diminish what appears to be genuine bravery) in a way that Putin does not and cannot. I imagine Zelensky is already developing a fan base within the discontented across Russia’s sphere of influence and even within the country itself.

It must be highly probable that Putin has sown the seeds of his own demise here.

Zelensky is a very brave man whose example is going to be an ongoing source of inspiration. Amazing. I suspect Putin is headed towards a Pyrrhic victory, where Russia’s future looks weakened and highly dependent on China, both diplomatically and economically.

Yeah, I wondered if China’s tepid, not quite, support of Russia; had far more to do with ultimate economic exploitation of Russia, down the line. They share a border, so embargos and sanctions, could be quietly ignored.
Not convinced China cares as much about Taiwan as we think. Surely it’s a, mildly irritating, mosquito to the Middle Kingdom and doesn’t really keep them up at night?

Edit, since I just recalled the “Middle Kingdom” idiom.

[TobyD]

Yes, I think he is aware of his limited life expectancy too and the effect his martyrdom would have going forward. I suppose he understands an audience (not to diminish what appears to be genuine bravery) in a way that Putin does not and cannot. I imagine Zelensky is already developing a fan base within the discontented across Russia’s sphere of influence and even within the country itself.

It must be highly probable that Putin has sown the seeds of his own demise here.

Zelensky is a very brave man whose example is going to be an ongoing source of inspiration. Amazing. I suspect Putin is headed towards a Pyrrhic victory, where Russia’s future looks weakened and highly dependent on China, both diplomatically and economically.

Yeah, I wondered if China’s tepid, not quite, support of Russia; had far more to do with ultimate economic exploitation of Russia, down the line. They share a border, so embargos and sanctions, could be quietly ignored.
Not convinced China cares as much about Taiwan as we think. Surely it’s a, mildly irritating, mosquito to the Middle Kingdom and doesn’t really keep them up at night?

Edit, since I just recalled the “Middle Kingdom” idiom.

Re China, I agree that they probably have a commercial interest in Russia, but I think Xi fully intends to bring Taiwan under his control at some point, but is far more powerful than Putin, and what Putin does probably doesn't really bother him very much. I suspect that he could just occupy Taiwan whenever he wanted given the size of the Chinese armed forces, but may well prefer a Hong Kong style take over instead.

[largeruk]

I found this useful - https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine

Given Putin's latest gambit is to go almost full tonto and ask/tell Lukashenko to provide Belarussian military support while also putting Russia's nuclear arsenal on the highest state of alert -  partly to encourage Ukraine to accept terms for cessation in the upcoming talks and partly to provoke the West/NATO into a knee-jerk response and deter them from providing further support to Ukraine? - maybe a potential way through might be Ukraine makes some concessions regarding Donetsk and Luhansk. Much of the Russian rhetoric has been about them, so Putin could potentially consider that partially face-saving? Even some version of that were to happen, hard to see the West rolling back to its previous position and attitudes towards Putin.

[andy popp]

Massive, immediate aid now being pledged to Ukraine - rightly so. But I'm also starting to think the EU/US should already be talking about what they will be doing to support a post-Putin Russia rebuild its economy and build democratic structures and institutions - a sort of Marshall Plan (and one that doesn't repeat the mistakes of the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union) - both as a genuine commitment and encouragement now to those in Russia who don't want what Putin has brought them to.

[Moo]

Things are starting to spiral dangerously now I think, who knows where this is leading.

As has been said, unfortunately I think Putin is now fighting mainly to save face which for a man like him it would seem can only end two ways.

[Oldmanmatt]

Things are starting to spiral dangerously now I think, who knows where this is leading.

As has been said, unfortunately I think Putin is now fighting mainly to save face which for a man like him it would seem can only end two ways.

I’m seeing quite a few similar social media posts to this (and I mean the caption, not the picture):
https://www.instagram.com/p/CaffyMjpO3G/?utm_medium=copy_link

Even rumours of a “riot” by troops outside Ukraine when they were ordered to cross the border.
It looks like Lukashenko is prevaricating around the bush, rather than committing troops to Putin’s folly, too.

Oh, and possibly a bit of a “run” on Russian banks:

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CafEJBDtBND/?utm_medium=copy_link

[danm]

I think it's clear that Putin has massively miscalculated. He was doing a very good job previously of stirring up division in Western society to weaken us. That is all starting to fall by the wayside as people realise what (and who) the real threat to liberty might be. Politicians who have been supporters, or have at least been neutral, have started to reject him and the EU and others are coalescing into an actively hostile coalition against him. Germany are reversing decades long policies of Russian appeasement and minimal arms expenditure. The most powerful economy in Europe has taken the gloves off, militarily.

I just hope the news about peace talks means he has realised this and perhaps hopes to trade Kyiv and the South for a deal where the Donbass either get independence or autonomy so he can claim a face saving "win". That way more death is avoided. Even if he could take all of Ukraine, the cost will now be far too high to be worth it - Russia's economy in tatters, its reputation destroyed, and Ukraine occupied but insurgent, with a once fractious coalition of neighbours now united in hostility and eagerness to facilitate your demise.

[Oldmanmatt]

St Petersburg, this afternoon.
“No to war” is the chant apparently:
https://www.instagram.com/tv/Cae8pWAtGJV/?utm_medium=copy_link

There have been truly massive protests in Berlin, it seems, and that might explain the German government’s volte-face.

[jwi]

As a small detail, for the second time ever Sweden, which is not part of any military alliance has sent weapons and ammunition to a foreign country at war (instead of selling them as per usual). The previous time was when the Soviet union attacked Finland in 1939. Sweden has gifted five thousand AT4s, and the same number of helmets and body armours to Ukraine.

[seankenny]

Interesting thread on Russian strategic choices and preparation:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

I guess the question now is whether the Russians will do a Grozny or Aleppo on a major European city. God forbid.

[Oldmanmatt]

So, MT is the semi-official newspaper of the US military, they’re running this article today:
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/02/27/want-to-go-fight-for-ukraine-heres-what-to-do/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Military_Times&utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&fbclid=IwAR18RrJDk1161J8xMKw1S8dGQ3J9XOkm_wOYl2-M5Xdyo5WtdYxN62TiflM

Given our Defence Secretary’s comments around this, it’s rising to an officially sanctioned effort, “NATO can’t, but you can”.

[Oldmanmatt]

An interesting take on the historical background to the conflict, that also contains some alarming nuggets of insight into Putin’s mental state (if true):
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/06/russia-and-ukraine-are-trapped-in-medieval-myths/?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits&fbclid=IwAR3JPtGrgtZ1ENHnj6Tuao9iCF-lXF6ys3X5ufoMhwDMVzd1dxPL3vo_6BQ

[jwi]

An interesting take on the historical background to the conflict, that also contains some alarming nuggets of insight into Putin’s mental state (if true):
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/06/russia-and-ukraine-are-trapped-in-medieval-myths/?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits&fbclid=IwAR3JPtGrgtZ1ENHnj6Tuao9iCF-lXF6ys3X5ufoMhwDMVzd1dxPL3vo_6BQ

This rhymes more or less exactly with what my father in law has told me.

My family from western Ukraine have never had much love for Russia (to say the least), and my oh's grandfather used to claim that the four years he spent during the second world war in forced labour in Bavaria was the best years of his life (the years her grandmother spent in Gulag were not great otoh). Now however, they are becoming nigh on radicalised, and none of them live in Ukraine anymore — how radicalised actual Ukrainians are becoming is not to be underestimated. Any permanent or semi-permanent presence of Russian troops are going to make the troubles look like a kindergarten kerfuffle. I don't see how relationships between Ukraina and Russia can ever be normalised if this keeps on much longer.

[Oldmanmatt]

Well, fuck me bendy. Switzerland has ditch it”s neutrality and will freeze Russian and Putin’s assets held in it”s banks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/switzerland-russian-assets-freeze.html

I don’t know how significant that will be financially, but it’s not a statement I ever expected to hear echoing down an alpine valley.

Actually, with Germany rearming, Sweden picking a side et al, the world is a very different one to the one we had last Monday. Apparently, a week is a frigging Ice age in politics…

[SA Chris]

I might spend the money on my Revolut Card before it gets frozen.

[Oldmanmatt]

I hadn’t thought about it until this afternoon, but Russia still has a Covid problem and the most recent wave has only just crested/begun to decline:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/

They’re reliant on the vaccine they developed aren’t they? And it’s not as effective?

Oh yeah, by the way, we have absolutely entered the Twilight Zone and TikTok is officially the most fucked up part of it all. I give you the “Battle Influencers”:
https://twitter.com/joshuapotash/status/1498332884121399307?s=21

*that last bit is humour, by the way, in case it wasn’t obvious. I think Ukrainians have more important things on their minds. The vid is doing the rounds though, so perhaps it will help🤷‍♂️.

[Will Hunt]

Oh yeah, by the way, we have absolutely entered the Twilight Zone and TikTok is officially the most fucked up part of it all. I give you the “Battle Influencers”:
https://twitter.com/joshuapotash/status/1498332884121399307?s=21

*that last bit is humour, by the way, in case it wasn’t obvious. I think Ukrainians have more important things on their minds. The vid is doing the rounds though, so perhaps it will help🤷‍♂️.

Just checked the comments. Kind of disappointed to see that she's Russian and the video was first posted a year ago. Still, I love the idea of Ukrainians, in some peaceful future, doing the school run in Russian tanks.

[Wellsy]

Interesting thread on Russian strategic choices and preparation:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

I guess the question now is whether the Russians will do a Grozny or Aleppo on a major European city. God forbid.

I reckon Grozny round one might be more accurate. I think the Ukrainians are going to win this, just a matter of when.

[jwi]

Nobody is going to win this war. Certainly not Russia which will see hyperinflation and complete economic collapse. Certainly not Ukraine which will see enormous loss of civilian lives and medium to large size loss of territory.

[Moo]

You could say that Ukraine has already won in a sense by turning this into a war rather than a blitzkrieg rollover. I think it's possible they'll be able to recover more quickly from the damage than Russia if this were all called off tomorrow.