[abarro81]

I suspect your line ends up similar to mine in the end Jim, still shit though since it basically boils down to "we'll kick the big guy in the head if you're our mate, but we'll let him fuck you up if you're the new kid in school"... which is quite pragmatic, and probably what most people would do in that analogy, but also kinda weak. The type of thing most of us would do and then be ashamed about afterwards...

[Bonjoy]

That’s a little harsh.

In what respect?

Yup, he’s got nuclear weapons and has, pretty clearly, threatened to use them.

Just for a second though, imagine he pushes all the way to the channel coast (unlikely, just imagine). Now imagine your life and that of your children, under that oppression, that system, for the next few generations.

“This too shall pass” ‘n all that, but he will have to be opposed, physically, at some point, should he go full Hitler. So, we’re going to have to dance the knife edge to some degree or simply sign over the keys to everything and hope he’s a benevolent overlord…

Two things.

An argument for holding the line at some position several steps down the road does not justify acting now, when there is every chance that eventuality will not come to pass.
That scenario, whilst wholly shit, is preferable to the death by fire or worse of everyone and everything I hold dear.

These things ratchet. E.g. yesterday you suggested direct militarily action by nato was unthinkable, now barely a day later you are essentially arguing in favour of it.

No… I said we’re unlikely to engage in conventional warfare, in Ukraine. There is no scenario where breaching NATO boarders doesn’t result in armed response by the treaty members.
Which is what I meant by “at some point” etc. He will be. Chances are he’ll stop faced with that, but he might try it on. I think he fights from a position of weakness, but I don’t know how desperate he is.

Thanks for clarifying. It's the calls for no fly zones (aka shooting down Russian jets in Ukraine) etc that cause me the most concern.

[Oldmanmatt]

I would imagine this is the article danm was referencing further up the page:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/25/this-is-how-we-defeat-putin-and-other-petrostate-autocrats

It's hard to argue with, though obviously it looks to the future rather than providing an answer to the now.

Did you read Rachel Maddow’s assessment of Putin? Quite on point, I dare say.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/putin-s-failure-as-a-leader-drives-his-resentment-of-ukraine-democracy-134010437899

Unfortunately, there are quite a few “Petro State Autocrats” facing a bleak future as the world turns it’s back on their cash cows.

[spidermonkey09]

I suspect your line ends up similar to mine in the end Jim, still shit though since it basically boils down to "we'll kick the big guy in the head if you're our mate, but we'll let him fuck you up if you're the new kid in school"... which is quite pragmatic, and probably what most people would do in that analogy, but also kinda weak. The type of thing most of us would do and then be ashamed about afterwards...

Yeah, I think thats pretty much it. There are no good options. Even stuff that seems like common sense, like the govt saying 'Ukrainian refugees welcome', has unwanted knockon effects; might that cause Ukrainian men to leave who their government would prefer to stay and fight? A coordinated European and NATO response of humanitarian aid would be so easy to spin as de facto getting involved in the war in Russia. A no fly zone sounds obvious until you remember it means shooting down Russian planes.

Slightly off topic, but thought this was good: https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless-gamble?utm_source=twitter

[northern yob]

Bonjoy

Your walking down the street and see a big horrible looking guy, kicking a smaller guy in the head do you keep walking as he might turn on you, and the little guy isn't dead (yet). Or do you step in and try to get the big horrible fucker to back off?

It depends on whether my intervention might result in everyone on planet earth ending up dead (including the small guy I'm looking to help).

Not intervening might result in you and the rest of the planet meeting that fiery end your so keen to avoid.

[Bonjoy]

Presumably we are both 'so keen to avoid' that outcome.
If you accept the principle that this is the most important consideration, then the question boils down to which available course of action does most to avoid it.
IMO that doesn't start with calling the bluff of the rage maddened assailant who has just threatened that very outcome if you intervene.

[Wellsy]

I completely get where you are coming from, the threat is very real!
Part of me thinks it’s time to make a stand, he’s only gonna become more emboldened by the west standing down and letting this happen.

If we had dug our heels in 8 years ago this probably wouldn’t be where we are at, bullies can’t be allowed to just carry on because people are afraid of the consequences (I doubt he will start a nuclear war, although he might…) I just don’t see how we can allow this to happen.

You accept that the threat of total global annihilation is very real, but you think it's maybe worth taking that risk. That's the whole of the history of our species (and many others), all art, all love, all music, all our children, all possible futures, all our stupid rock climbs. Really?
No paths from here are good. But mankind only has to be wrong about the intentions of a despot with nuclear weapons once.

So what, we let him crack on, sorry Ukraine you are on your own cos we are scared of what the big bad bully might do…. Is all the love, art and our children not worth standing up for? Are you saying we should bury our heads in the sand?

The threat is no more real than it’s ever been, do we allow him to hold the whole world to ransom.

The way it works is like poker, and he’s as stony faced as they come, play him at his own game or we stand to get bluffed out of a hand that’s ours. I don’t believe he would push the button, I do believe he will bluff the whole way until we call him.

It’s what he did in Crimea and Syria. The west has a bigger and better military if we are United, he knows that. He’s playing the fear we all have it’s time to stand up to him.

I’m not saying immediate all out war, but sanctions aren’t gonna cut it. We need to slowly ramp it up! Special forces, advisors and equipment. I genuinely think we’ve let Ukraine down.

It’s time to stand up for what we believe is right. If people hadn’t done that in 39/40 where would we be right now?

I mean we are all a bit scared of the idea of nuclear war, yes. I think probably the Ukrainians would not be exactly better off if that happened even given the shit situation they're in now.

Incidentally I think Putin is stupid if he things he can actually subdue the majority of Ukraine long term. This invasion has fired up their desire to turn away from Russia, not destroyed it.

[Oldmanmatt]

I completely get where you are coming from, the threat is very real!
Part of me thinks it’s time to make a stand, he’s only gonna become more emboldened by the west standing down and letting this happen.

If we had dug our heels in 8 years ago this probably wouldn’t be where we are at, bullies can’t be allowed to just carry on because people are afraid of the consequences (I doubt he will start a nuclear war, although he might…) I just don’t see how we can allow this to happen.

You accept that the threat of total global annihilation is very real, but you think it's maybe worth taking that risk. That's the whole of the history of our species (and many others), all art, all love, all music, all our children, all possible futures, all our stupid rock climbs. Really?
No paths from here are good. But mankind only has to be wrong about the intentions of a despot with nuclear weapons once.

So what, we let him crack on, sorry Ukraine you are on your own cos we are scared of what the big bad bully might do…. Is all the love, art and our children not worth standing up for? Are you saying we should bury our heads in the sand?

The threat is no more real than it’s ever been, do we allow him to hold the whole world to ransom.

The way it works is like poker, and he’s as stony faced as they come, play him at his own game or we stand to get bluffed out of a hand that’s ours. I don’t believe he would push the button, I do believe he will bluff the whole way until we call him.

It’s what he did in Crimea and Syria. The west has a bigger and better military if we are United, he knows that. He’s playing the fear we all have it’s time to stand up to him.

I’m not saying immediate all out war, but sanctions aren’t gonna cut it. We need to slowly ramp it up! Special forces, advisors and equipment. I genuinely think we’ve let Ukraine down.

It’s time to stand up for what we believe is right. If people hadn’t done that in 39/40 where would we be right now?

I mean we are all a bit scared of the idea of nuclear war, yes. I think probably the Ukrainians would not be exactly better off if that happened even given the shit situation they're in now.

Incidentally I think Putin is stupid if he things he can actually subdue the majority of Ukraine long term. This invasion has fired up their desire to turn away from Russia, not destroyed it.

Stalin either starved out, or shipped out entire populations to the  Siberian wastes…

[mrjonathanr]

Some more reflections on the extent of uk pandering to London based kleptocrats:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/25/tories-oligarchs-london-government-putin-donations

[Oldmanmatt]

Some more reflections on the extent of uk pandering to London based kleptocrats:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/25/tories-oligarchs-london-government-putin-donations

The thing is, we all* know about the Oligarchs and how they “own” our government etc. Yet, we¹ never even grumble very loudly. It’s amazing that we² haven’t done anything and I³ don’t understand why everybody⁴ isn’t out in the streets baying for blood.
You first, though, I’m washing my hair (both remaining strands) I’ll join you later (if it looks like there’s enough people, so I don’t standout too much)⁵.



*you know “Them”, the ones that “should do something about it”, but not actually “us” because we’re busy washing
our hair that day.
¹ same people as *
² and again.
³ and again.
⁴ same again, quite repetative, isn’t it.
⁵ and there’s the fucking problem.

[petejh]

It’s a big ‘if’, but if Ukraine’s resistance were robust enough to cause Russia’s momentum to stall then I wonder if an appetite will emerge in western countries for a something similar to what happened in Spain in the 1930s civil war - that conflict like now was such an obvious struggle against oppression that it attracted ‘international brigades’ of unassociated soldiers. An extra 5-10,000 motivated people, willingly equipped by the west with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons (unlike Syria where the west discouraged outside combatants), could make things very difficult for Putin to get all he wants. If I’m thinking it then no doubt many others are too. All depends if Russia can swiftly overrun the Ukrainians or if they get bogged down. You’d expect the former.

[Oldmanmatt]

It’s a big ‘if’, but if Ukraine’s resistance were robust enough to cause Russia’s momentum to stall then I wonder if an appetite will emerge in western countries for a something similar to what happened in Spain in the 1930s civil war - that conflict like now was such an obvious struggle against oppression that it attracted ‘international brigades’ of unassociated soldiers. An extra 5-10,000 motivated people, willingly equipped by the west with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons (unlike Syria where the west discouraged outside combatants), could make things very difficult for Putin to get all he wants. If I’m thinking it then no doubt many others are too. All depends if Russia can swiftly overrun the Ukrainians or if they get bogged down. You’d expect the former.

just looking at the time lines and reports of Russian casualties, I think this has already cost significantly more than Putin would have expected. Russia doesn’t have enough resources to sustain this for very long (militarily, there is a big difference between “has X hundred main battle tanks” and “has X hundred operational, modern, main battle tanks”.

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/if-new-looks-could-kill-russias-military-capability-in-2022

[spidermonkey09]

The risk of Russia getting bogged down will be that they decide to use indiscriminate force on civilians in an effort to speed things along. As Matt said, they can't afford a long engagement.

[Moo]

This move seems deeply unpopular within Russia, I think if reports of atrocities against unarmed combatants started being circulated then it might be the straw that breaks the camels back.

I was thinking today that ideally the solution to all of this would come from within Russia itself.

I don’t know if that would be in the form of a coup d'état or Russia having to withdraw troops to quell significant civil unrest.

Maybe if Russians on the street get wind of how hard these sanctions are going to hit them in six months to a years time then the latter isn’t unthinkable 

[TobyD]

This move seems deeply unpopular within Russia, I think if reports of atrocities against unarmed combatants started being circulated then it might be the straw that breaks the camels back.

I was thinking today that ideally the solution to all of this would come from within Russia itself.

I don’t know if that would be in the form of a coup d'état or Russia having to withdraw troops to quell significant civil unrest.

Maybe if Russians on the street get wind of how hard these sanctions are going to hit them in six months to a years time then the latter isn’t unthinkable 

That's the hope isn't it, or that an oligarch overthrows him, because they are tired of sanctions.
It's extremely optimistic, but what else do we have? I just hope that Putin doesn't decide that the big red button is the only way out.

[teestub]

Is there any gauge of the popularity if these actions in Russia? So hard to cut through the state sponsored stuff. I don’t really have a grasp of how popular Putin is in general, and how easily he would be removed.

[Oldmanmatt]

Is there any gauge of the popularity if these actions in Russia? So hard to cut through the state sponsored stuff. I don’t really have a grasp of how popular Putin is in general, and how easily he would be removed.

It’s all rumour and I’ve no basis for believing it to be any more “true” than any other rumour I’ve ever heard, except that I’ve heard it several times from several sources.
There is speculation, that Putin’s initial rise to power, was largely “sponsored” by the family of his, then, wife and that he was a useful front. For some time she/they pulled the strings.
The puppet, wasn’t, and began pulling his own strings as he outstripped his controllers in wealth etc. I’d have to Google it, but there’s been a change in wives and/or lovers over recent years. However, where his original controllers were largely concerned with wealth creation/preservation, he himself might be harbouring “Great Man of History” pretensions, coupled with an increasing sense of his own mortality and probably a nagging suspicion of his own unpopularity at home. Russia, for the average Russian, remains both poor and backward, yet increasingly the younger generations travel to western countries and return dissatisfied and restless (I watched the same happen in Romania for a decade or two, there, as I suspect in Russia too; it is probably significant that the last generation raised under the old system are finally dying/retiring/losing relevance as leaders and new expectations are finally reaching positions of authority and influence. (Teachers, people always forget teachers. Often young, idealistic, and yet (because the role doesn’t pay enough to be thought important), they, nevertheless, have a huge impact on the thinking of their charges. As the older, senior, old school, minds depart and those who had so much hope at the time the wall fell, finally find themselves making policy, and..))

I’ve worked with a few Russians, over the years, either in the role of colleagues or clients, I don’t recall any of them being enthusiastic about their leaders (are we, about ours?), but the engineers I worked with were usually really very anti (the “normal” Russians, if you will).

I guess, given the risks to those involved, the protests in Moscow speak volumes.

[Oldmanmatt]

No idea of accuracy, just been shared around a veterans community and might be worth adding to your information sources.
If accurate, there are less Russian units in Ukraine than I would have expected (no claim of expertise, just I imagined it would be swamped, this looks like the bulk have yet to cross the border).
https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

[andy popp]

I knew it was going to happen, but watching anti-vax friends of friends (on FB) morph over the last few days into Putin supporters is still a bizarre and unsettling experience.

[seankenny]

They’ve always been Putin supporters, if unwittingly. I remember the last Antivax Dan avatar on here, the only thing he mentioned other than the pandemic was Syria. And of course his line on Syria was Putin’s line.

[andy popp]

They’ve always been Putin supporters, if unwittingly. I remember the last Antivax Dan avatar on here, the only thing he mentioned other than the pandemic was Syria. And of course his line on Syria was Putin’s line.

You're right, of course. I wasn't very clear. I mean already regurgitating the newly approved anti-Ukraine line.

[Oldmanmatt]

Sorry for the FB link, but either interesting or amusing depending on whether TASS was hacked or just being too honest…
https://www.facebook.com/628773943837250/posts/4882967058417896/

[Oldmanmatt]

Another FB account.
More signs Russia is not finding this a walkover. This is not the US moving on Baghdad, for instance.
I find this both fascinating and alarming, journalism has certainly changed in this era. Very hard to determine authenticity or significance, of course, but those “Z” markings still visible on som vehicles, seem to tally with markings noted by other sources on Russian vehicles immediately prior to the invasion. Believed to indicate intended destinations:
https://www.facebook.com/100000330585781/posts/5029520983735538/

[Oldmanmatt]

It’s a big ‘if’, but if Ukraine’s resistance were robust enough to cause Russia’s momentum to stall then I wonder if an appetite will emerge in western countries for a something similar to what happened in Spain in the 1930s civil war - that conflict like now was such an obvious struggle against oppression that it attracted ‘international brigades’ of unassociated soldiers. An extra 5-10,000 motivated people, willingly equipped by the west with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons (unlike Syria where the west discouraged outside combatants), could make things very difficult for Putin to get all he wants. If I’m thinking it then no doubt many others are too. All depends if Russia can swiftly overrun the Ukrainians or if they get bogged down. You’d expect the former.

I’ve actually not been following this all day, just sat down for awhile to catch up, after the days activities. Apparently, quite a few formers have been heading out to Ukraine already, I believe, under the banner of “Western Volunteers” and armed by Western Nations.
https://www.instagram.com/tv/Cac75ikJruA/?utm_medium=share_sheet

[DAVETHOMAS90]

It’s a big ‘if’, but if Ukraine’s resistance were robust enough to cause Russia’s momentum to stall then I wonder if an appetite will emerge in western countries for a something similar to what happened in Spain in the 1930s civil war - that conflict like now was such an obvious struggle against oppression that it attracted ‘international brigades’ of unassociated soldiers. An extra 5-10,000 motivated people, willingly equipped by the west with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons (unlike Syria where the west discouraged outside combatants), could make things very difficult for Putin to get all he wants. If I’m thinking it then no doubt many others are too. All depends if Russia can swiftly overrun the Ukrainians or if they get bogged down. You’d expect the former.

I’ve actually not been following this all day, just sat down for awhile to catch up, after the days activities. Apparently, quite a few formers have been heading out to Ukraine already, I believe, under the banner of “Western Volunteers” and armed by Western Nations.
https://www.instagram.com/tv/Cac75ikJruA/?utm_medium=share_sheet

Thanks for the links guys. Doesn't surprise me. Good to get a better insight into things there. It's grim.