[chris j]

Ah okay. I get that there is a lot of repurposing going on, but it does not appear to be solving supply issues.  It needed more urgency, earlier.

Given the quotes from private sector clothing suppliers, laboratories and engineering companies about PHE not returning calls, lack of urgency and a general unwillingness to work with the private sector, procurement is surely in for a massive reorganisation in the fall-out at the end of this (if not sooner)

[Oldmanmatt]

A bullet dodged implies luck TT. I don't ascribe the NHS having extra capacity to luck.
Would you not agree that a better metaphor is that it was a bullet that we were fully expecting to come at us and hit us, and the reason it didn't kill us was because we'd armoured up in time to deal with it?

Wrong metaphor really Pete. Sorry.

A near miss - where we just managed to wrestle the steering wheel in time to swerve out of the way might be better. 

My neighbour who runs a bar was telling me today that the govts 10k cash advance and the furlough procedure means he’ll be alright as long as lockdown doesn’t go on much longer than 6 months... so that’s a positive for the govt too - that I forgot to add.

I would agree with your mate’s assessment, but knock it down to five months.
My worry is how far down the line we need to move before climbing gyms will open.

There is an effort, Europe wide, to come up with a set of protocols for climbing walls, but I feel dubious at the moment.
It’s a work in progress, but...

[mrjonathanr]

My neighbour who runs a bar was telling me today that the govts 10k cash advance and the furlough procedure means he’ll be alright as long as lockdown doesn’t go on much longer than 6 months... so that’s a positive for the govt too - that I forgot to add.

+1 for approving Sunak's decisiveness in acting here. I don't care too much about the crew's political persuasions if I'm on the boat and they're steering us off the rocks.

[tomtom]

@OMM - he said it was enough to cover the rent - to close to the end of the year. Most other things he could dial down to minimal... (utlilities/suppliers/till leases etc..).

He said he spent 4 hours last night getting the furlough stuff ready for his staff (its a small bar - maybe half a dozen) which he said was hard - and as he put it - he used to be an accountant, so had good records and knew what he was doing...

[Offwidth]

I think the metaphor is exactly right. When things got as close as they did there is no way the government advance planning was OK.. it's just impossible to judge that well. That some hospitals were not overwhelmed was luck and was as much about good hospital planning as government advice.

The mistakes were made and they continue to this day: in todays briefing the narrative about Boris missing all those COBRA meetings is just BS (sure its normal he misses the odd one due to other crisis issues but not so many in a row). The Deputy Head of Public Health continues to claim we were one of the best prepared and admired in the world ... not if we compare to Europe let alone aspire to some of the East Asian success.

I'd also praise the speed of introduction of UK finance protections for individuals and business but if we had been more 'on it' we wouldn't have needed such a long lockdown or such risk to health workers or care homes left so exposed. Denmark started growing after us and are relaxing earlier... much fewer deaths and much less economic damage.

The more I see the claimed equivalent exceptional 'lax behaviour' in Europe the more it seems to be due to either those being hit hard first at a difficult time, alongside flu (Italy and Spain) or more honest in numbers (France and Belgium) or social distancing was happening but more quietly  (Netherlands and even Sweden). The UK looks even worse in this context as we are daily heading to equal the largest number of hospital deaths in Europe, despite the advantage of avoiding any hospitals being overwhelmed (where mortality step changes).

[Nigel]

There are certainly long term strategic decisions that could have been different, such as PPE stores and national manufacturing capacity, and private sector involvement in testing, but i'm sure we would have heard howls of protest about wasting money preparing for something that might never happen and there being higher priorities if  money had actually been allocated in advance. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Been out for a nice walk in the spring sunshine so just coming back to this. To summarise the general vibe there are some saying broadly what chrisj is above - that hindsight is wonderful thing. I mean yes, of course it is, but do we not elect governments to do, errr, foresight? I have to say that the gulf between what *should* have happened and was *has* happened is too wide to overlook.

I've already made these points several times on this thread but they bear repeating. Firstly, a pandemic of some kind *was* foreseen - and noted as the biggest risk *by far* to the UK. The argument that no-one thought this might happen is nonsense I'm afraid. OK maybe the man in street didn't know, but government? Get real. Secondly, there *was* a plan to do deal with it. Thirdly - the plan was tested in an exercise in 2016 and found wanting in several areas. Fourthly - that was ignored. Fifthly - whatever plan we had was ignored anyway at the start due to the bizarre fact that members of UK gov were cleverer epidemiologists than the WHO / too busy with Brexit / not watching the same news programs as literally the rest of the world / just plain useless (take your pick).

Chris, would there have been howls of protest at money going out on a strategic PPE reserve, national manufacturing capacity, testing labs? Probably not, I'm sure they could have hidden it. Or why not just brazen it out? As I mentioned earlier in thread they do that with the money they piss up the wall on Trident because the UK public has been indoctrinated to want nuclear weapons. Just say that the PPE is for a chemical attack and they're laughing. They didn't. They wilfully ignored their own pandemic plan, and also the results of the subsequent test of that plan. That is a dereliction of duty, full stop.

To take one thing only - Hancock announced his PPE plan on 10th April. Does that really seem right to anyone? Really? If you read this thread there were people calling out the government on this back in March. If anyone is operating with the benefit of hindsight here its the government. And its not good enough.

[mrjonathanr]

Can anyone provide a credible defence for only releasing hospital death figures? Surely UK gov has better information than the ONS April 3 figure of 217?

From the guardian:

. “Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure,” Martin Green, the chief executive of Care England, said. “However, if we look at some of the death rates since 1 April and compare them with previous years’ rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19.”

There is a duty to properly update the public imo, including temporary figures if that’s all that is available.

[Nigel]

Something else that came into mind while out earlier. Am I right in thinking UK and France are the two countries with the busiest transport hubs in Europe?
..........
As the track of this virus depends entirely on new human-human interactions, could the UK and France especially have been starting with a handicap compared to other European countries, just from the fact of having higher throughput of new virus carriers at the beginning of any outbreak?
 ........
If you add in UK's other airports outside top 10: Luton, Stanstead etc. Then the UK is by the busiest in Europe for air travel.

Pete, I do appreciate your contrary positions, but on some of them I wonder how tongue in cheek they are! Yes, of course you are right, the UK has the busiest airports in Europe.

My question to you - is that an overnight thing? Did it happen in January / February 2020? Do you honestly think the UK government was unaware of this well established fact? Why do you think they want a third runway at Heathrow?!

Obviously they were aware. As such they should have planned for it in the case of pandemics. Some suggestions - temperature checks of all incoming passengers, enforced quarantine for passengers from some areas, voluntary from others, ban flights from others, stricter measures for transfers etc. There will be others but if I can think of that in ten seconds then I would expect our government to have had thought *ahead* about it.

FYI there are currently absolutely zero coronavirus measures at UK borders. Still. Even knowing what we know. So in a way by highlighting this you have pretty much undermined your own attempted defence of the government. They have not only dropped the ball they have now completely lost it.

[Nigel]

However, I think that the time to try to tear down the government's credibility with the general public is after the worst of it has passed, Nigel I understand your feelings but this shit gives licence to the shit thick people who are champing at the bit to break their lockdown.

Toby, what do you think will happen when the worst has passed? Well it'll be a years long inquiry to kick it into the long grass and a tidy diversion (er, Brexit?), events will move on, plus there will no doubt be a honeymoon period of life getting back to normal, and the government's credibility will be unaffected despite everything. So respectfully I couldn't disagree more - the time to highlight this stuff is, exactly, ASAP.

The government clearly seriously neglected any proper preparation, although since then they've definitely got their act into gear. It's no use trying to say if we had a different administration of whatever colour it'd have been much better, it clearly wouldn't, the UK is extremely densely populated with many international airports, a large number of international students, and many other factors that made the widespread import of an infectious virus inevitable.
Having said all that, why they're still allowing international flights now seems foolish.

As I mentioned in my reply to Pete, none of this was inevitable if they used their brains. The UK having international airports and large numbers of foreign students is not a secret to anyone. Yes, a difficult problem, but insoluble? No. Have they got their act together now? You seem to suggest so at first and yet even by the end of the same paragraph you accept that no, actually, they haven't!

[petejh]

Nige, will reply tomorrow but pointing out the UK has the busiest travel hubs in Europe is not ‘defending the government’ it’s pointing out a bleeding obvious but and relevant point which is overlooked by people who appear to think the UK can control a pandemic virus at its borders.
You have some valid points and some complete unfair points. Which I’ll reply tomorrow.

[stone]

When Sunak came up with his scheme for supposedly saving businesses, I was wondering why he didn't just say that during the COVID crisis, the clock would stop on rents and debt servicing (apart from the government servicing government debt obviously). Wouldn't that have saved businesses? Isn't rent and debt servicing what causes firms to go bust? I know nothing about this and I'm keen to hear from anyone who does.
In general, my impression is that this government hasn't merely reaped (for us) the consequences of running down the NHS and failing to take the lessons of the 2016 Cygnus drill failure. Rather the government is conducting an ongoing fiasco of mis-governance.

[Paul B]

However, I think that the time to try to tear down the government's credibility with the general public is after the worst of it has passed, Nigel I understand your feelings but this shit gives licence to the shit thick people who are champing at the bit to break their lockdown.

I too disagree with this and I think this Twitter thread is pertinent.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1251822241312059394?s=19

But there is a more basic point

The "lesson" that is "learned" from many inquiries is that there should have been more open and better decision-making *at the time*

We are still now *at the time* for key decisions to be made"

It needs pointing out now.

[Nigel]

You have some valid points and some complete unfair points. Which I’ll reply tomorrow.

I don't doubt that both are true! Apologies if have been unduly unfair, in which case I'll hold my hands up.

[mrjonathanr]

Interesting thread Paul, thanks. I liked mdlachlan’s satire on the argument that criticism should be left till later

We’re losing 3-0 at half time. The time to decide how we need to reorganise the defence will be after the match. Anyone who suggests otherwise cannot call themselves a fan of the club.

This tweet about PPE stopped me in my tracks:

Dan Bloom@danbloom1 13h
Michael Gove wouldn't say this morning if UK sent 220,000-odd items of PPE to China. This one is quite simple - it is on record from Downing Street at the time and the figure we had was actually 650,000, we wrote a story about it.

Here it is:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-sends-650000-gloves-wipes-21566192.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

[TobyD]

the time to highlight this stuff is, exactly, ASAP.
...
Have they got their act together now? You seem to suggest so at first and yet even by the end of the same paragraph you accept that no, actually, they haven't!

Nigel, first point, that's all very well for you to say as you are obviously strongly opposed to right of centre conservative government, but frankly I would really like this shit to die down a bit so my, and much more so many other people's jobs aren't scary and unpleasant, although at least we have secure jobs I'll admit.

Secondly, it's perfectly possible to think both. Some things the government have done as well as might be expected in the circumstances, in others they have been sorely wanting.

[Nigel]

Yes you are right on the first point. Where I think we diverge is that I don't think that the press reporting facts is necessarily going to encourage the nation to give up on the lockdown. It is largely very well observed for more reasons than the credibility of the government. In addition we have a free press so if these things are discovered by journalists, then by what process should they be suppressed?

I actually agree with your second point, and I credit the government financial response as decent and timely, and the arrangements of extra hospital bed space as good also. I don't agree that we are close to having our act together on ppe and testing.

[stone]

Singapore is a denser hub for international travel than the UK is and yet they coped with COVID better than most.

[stone]

The UK has an elite band who have been doing great stuff at the cutting edge of COVID testing. Whole virus genome sequencing to follow emerging evolution of the virus etc has been of an internationally significant standard here.

What the UK has been diabolical at has been widespread bog-standard RT-PCR testing for contact tracing etc as done in Korea, Singapore etc. I'm sure the UK has as high a density of real-time PCR machines (and people to use them) as those countries, so there really is no excuse. What they apparently did in those countries was to just ask every facility to get on with testing ASAP and then back validated. By contrast our lab in The University of Sheffield had our machines requisitioned in mid-March and we were asked to submit CVs and references if we wanted to help. We have then had weekly emails thanking us for our patience.

I had presumed that the situation was because they had plenty of better people than me. However I then heard from someone who is the ultimate candidate for doing this. She was doing clinical PCR testing up until last year when she returned to research science (and also is super competent in every way). She said that she hadn't even been able to get as far as submitting references etc because they told her they were too inundated with applicants.

To try and imagine the situation, imagine whatever job you do whether it is a plumber or an accountant or whatever. Imagine if everyone in the country who does that was told to stop and submit applications to Reed Talent Solutions for them to reassemble a national cohort of plumbers or accountants or whatever. Well that's the testing situation in the UK.

[TobyD]

Where I think we diverge is that I don't think that the press reporting facts is necessarily going to encourage the nation to give up on the lockdown. It is largely very well observed for more reasons than the credibility of the government. In addition we have a free press so if these things are discovered by journalists, then by what process should they be suppressed?

Not suppressed just perhaps reported after the worst of the event.  I agree that most reasonably intelligent younger people wouldn't change their behaviour based on this, but people of for example my parents generation might well. (65+) As I said earlier quite a few of the people I've seen taking the piss are more this demographic. 

I agree that ppe and testing has been awfully organised. 

[ali k]

...most reasonably intelligent younger people wouldn't change their behaviour based on this, but people of for example my parents generation might well. (65+) As I said earlier quite a few of the people I've seen taking the piss are more this demographic.   

Not a massively important point in the grand scheme of things but this is just anecdotal Toby. My experience has been seeing people of all demographics out throughout the lockdown - young couples, young families with kids, groups of lads, elderly folk out, generally all sorts. Including groups congregating or out for walks who are quite clearly multiple generations of the same family. And on my ride yesterday North Yorkshire was as busy as ever, with all the usual pull ins and remote car parks packed. Families out having picnics by streams etc etc.

[stone]

I struggle to imagine how families having picnics by streams is responsible for spreading COVID19 (not that I'd do that myself).
A local care home here has 17 residents, they normally got a big Tescos delivery to provide the food. At the start of this they were told that instead they were just getting three of each food item. They were told to send every one of their staff to queue up at the supermarket every day do as to gather enough food for the residents. That is the type of this government's fuckwittery that has killed thousands.

[Oldmanmatt]

This, is a fire which needs fighting:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/19/hospital-leaders-hit-out-government-ppe-shortage-row-escalates-nhs?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1587363068

Hancock down playing and using “a large number” to try and baffle the house (a number which only seems large, but in fact represents a mere drop in the ocean of need) is pretty irksome.

“ On Friday Hancock told MPs on the Commons health and social care select committee that 55,000 more gowns were due that day. They arrived as expected and were distributed to hospitals over the weekend. However, NHS officials pointed out that, with hospital staff in England using 150,000 gowns a day, they constituted barely eight hours’ supply.”

🤦🏻‍♂️

[Nigel]

Not suppressed just perhaps reported after the worst of the event.

OK, but who decides? Journalists self-censoring? Editors? The Ministry of Propaganda? Starts to look a bit like the stuff the Chinese have been getting criticised for. I remain unconvinced.

You could argue the opposite - that anyone who has lost faith in the government to keep its citizens / healthcare workers safe would actually have a greater incentive to observe the lockdown to make up the shortfall.

[ali k]

I struggle to imagine how families having picnics by streams is responsible for spreading COVID19

I wasn’t arguing that, just pointing out that people flouting ‘the rules’ aren’t overwhelmingly wealthy pensioners. But the argument as to whether it’s ok to picnic in the countryside is the same as has been done to death on the ‘Climbing during CV-19’ thread. And from my experiences yesterday it doesn’t seem the lockdown is being observed in the same way as it was a few weeks ago generally.

[fiveknuckle21]

I find it quite unsettling hearing that people’s behaviour is slipping. A month ago it could’ve been passed off as ignorance or denial amongst other things but we’ve seen the deaths climb. Didn’t we have the highest number of new cases of any country, globally, yesterday? It’s all so dehumanising when there is death on this scale. I am in disbelief that some people are clearly not petrified now after we’ve seen the damage this virus can do.