[spidermonkey09]

If this had been data collected by students I would probably fail them for making up data. I would at the very least interrogate them individually, and mark them down severly.

jwi - because it fits too well; ie it is too obviously fabricated?

[jwi]

Just so. This is what data from an experiment in physics or chemistry looks like.... not in medicine.

It is very difficult to imagine a scenario giving such perfect fit to a simple logistic function.

The data collected from countries with free press and more transparent institutions is a lot more noisy.

It is clear to me that there has to be some form of smoothing, for instance by averaging, to achieve such close fit to the theoretical curve. In absence of convincing explanation to the noise free behaviour of the graphs I will continue to ignore Chinese data.

[Doylo]

Saw pictures of a completely bone dry and mint Kilnsey on FB. Talk about cruel....

[spidermonkey09]

Saw pictures of a completely bone dry and mint Kilnsey on FB. Talk about cruel....

Likewise. Its best not to think about it...

[moose]

Just so. This is what data from an experiment in physics or chemistry looks like.... not in medicine.

It is very difficult to imagine a scenario giving such perfect fit to a simple logistic function.

The data collected from countries with free press and more transparent institutions is a lot more noisy.

It is clear to me that there has to be some form of smoothing, for instance by averaging, to achieve such close fit to the theoretical curve. In absence of convincing explanation to the noise free behaviour of the graphs I will continue to ignore Chinese data.

Sounds like a case for Benford's Law

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

[tomtom]

Just so. This is what data from an experiment in physics or chemistry looks like.... not in medicine.

It is very difficult to imagine a scenario giving such perfect fit to a simple logistic function.

The data collected from countries with free press and more transparent institutions is a lot more noisy.

It is clear to me that there has to be some form of smoothing, for instance by averaging, to achieve such close fit to the theoretical curve. In absence of convincing explanation to the noise free behaviour of the graphs I will continue to ignore Chinese data.

Sounds like a case for Benford's Law

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

I think you’re being rather over suspicious. It’s cumulative data - that is a very good way of smoothing data in the first place.

I can have chaotic output from a model (my own work - nothing to do with viruses!!) that looks bonkers as a time series but smooths nicely to a curve when plotted as a cumulative.

[jwi]

I hope so.

I checked with french data (the deaths are cumulative in france as well....) so far the french data is a lot less smooth.

It is perhaps not fair to compare them directly yet as we are just at the beginning in France

[Paul B]

Likewise. Its best not to think about it...

If it makes it any easier I went out on the bike on Wed and it was truly glorious but both Fri (where I ventured near limestone areas) and yesterday (I cut the ride short) was baltic with significant wind chill. Climbing would've been grim. Perhaps Wed would've been nice at Malham but neither at Kilnsey. 

[Rob F]

Well now that the whole climbing community are on Matt Smythe training regimes, I think that everyone should set their return to climbing sights a little higher.

Gonna be climbing like beasts once allowed back on the crags with our hair tied back in pony tails...

[Rob F]

10 mm edge

7 seconds on 3 seconds off, x 40 reps = 9a???

[shark]

First training session since the accident.

Did some work arounds to not load the injured pads too much which were not entirely pain free.

Weights tomorrow. 

[gme]

Not climbing but official police guidance in Devon and Cornwall is classing surging as daily exercise.
No driving to get there but If you can walk to the surf you can surf.

No different to climbing in my eyes.

[nai]

Gonna be climbing like beasts once allowed back on the crags with our hair tied back in pony tails...

For one short session until your finger tips hurt so much or have fallen to bits.
Take a week off, repeat.

[tomtom]

Gonna be climbing like beasts once allowed back on the crags with our hair tied back in pony tails...

For one short session until your finger tips hurt so much or have fallen to bits.
Take a week off, repeat.

Just like the winter we’ve just had then? 😃

[Bonjoy]

Well now that the whole climbing community are on Matt Smythe training regimes, I think that everyone should set their return to climbing sights a little higher.

Gonna be climbing like beasts once allowed back on the crags with our hair tied back in pony tails...

 
From my recollection Smythe was singularly shit on the couple of occasions I saw him emerge from the cellar to test how his training was progressing. He'd then promptly attribute his performance to insufficient/incorrect training and retreat back underground.

[BrutusTheBear]

Not climbing but official police guidance in Devon and Cornwall is classing surging as daily exercise.
No driving to get there but If you can walk to the surf you can surf.

No different to climbing in my eyes.

7 miles to Saunton  Sands my nearest beach. 
Besides the joke is on surfers because now it’s deemed OK to surf, it is FLAT, FLAT, FLAT for the foreseeable.

[SA Chris]

Agree, should not be allowed. Surfers at J Bay being loaded into a police van. South Africa is in total lockdown, can only leave house for food or medicine.

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-03-30-watch-surfers-arrested-in-jeffreys-bay-for-breaking-lockdown-rules/

I could walk to the beach with my inflatable SUP in my back and go for a paddle, but won't be, just feels wrong.

[Somebody's Fool]

Well now that the whole climbing community are on Matt Smythe training regimes, I think that everyone should set their return to climbing sights a little higher.

Gonna be climbing like beasts once allowed back on the crags with our hair tied back in pony tails...

 
From my recollection Smythe was singularly shit on the couple of occasions I saw him emerge from the cellar to test how his training was progressing. He'd then promptly attribute his performance to insufficient/incorrect training and retreat back underground.

Someone once told me that when he unleashed himself on the crags after his intensive systems training, he was spotted sitting on a rope on Bad, Bad Boy complaining the holds were too big.

[TobyD]

Not climbing but official police guidance in Devon and Cornwall is classing surging as daily exercise.
No driving to get there but If you can walk to the surf you can surf.

No different to climbing in my eyes.

Yes in that any significant degree of participation raises considerably the chance of someone needing coastguard or mountain rescue, and at the moment its extremely selfish. 

Some people might be ok but you can't restrict participation,  and there are a lot of muppets out there.

[gme]

2 mins walk to the beach for me, not a great beach but something at least.
Unlike a lot on here I am trying to operate as per what I am told and not what I feel is right so if they say I can surf I will be.

[spidermonkey09]

2 mins walk to the beach for me, not a great beach but something at least.
Unlike a lot on here I am trying to operate as per what I am told and not what I feel is right so if they say I can surf I will be.

Doesn't this translate as: Despite knowing that clearly the government and police cannot give guidance for every single niche activity, I intend to take advantage of this omission, despite the fact that I know its probably not a good idea?

Doing what one feels is right is surely more important than the absolute letter of the law?

On a separate note, very jealous of your proximity to the coast!

[petejh]

Come on then, who's going to post the links to the two guardian articles, yesterday and today, about the police being accused of overreaching their powers... And the Supreme court judge accusing Derbyshire police of shaming British policing tradition etc. etc.

(Wondering out loud) I wonder if you peel away a lot of the noise on what the right thing to do by the science is, do people's views on what the right balance should be between liberty versus compliance, align at least somewhat with their politics... Nanny state Sheffield?

I'm currently on the fence. Haven't used my vehicle for nearly two weeks except to go to the supermarket. But within 10 minutes or so of my house I can walk into the hills (and continue onto the carneddau if I wanted) or to the beach or to bouldering spots. Easy for me to be pious. I know friends however who've been driving out to the hills to exercise because they live in an urban area and exercising around the streets doesn't satisfy them enough.

[spidermonkey09]

Police are definitely acting like nobs. Equally we aren't getting the reports of them doing their job reasonably I suppose.

article here...https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption

I think its simultaneously possible to think that and also think that that we still shouldn't be going climbing. Thats basically my view anyway.

[Stu Littlefair]

2 mins walk to the beach for me, not a great beach but something at least.
Unlike a lot on here I am trying to operate as per what I am told and not what I feel is right so if they say I can surf I will be.

Doesn't this translate as: Despite knowing that clearly the government and police cannot give guidance for every single niche activity, I intend to take advantage of this omission, despite the fact that I know its probably not a good idea?

Doing what one feels is right is surely more important than the absolute letter of the law?

On a separate note, very jealous of your proximity to the coast!

If Gav really feels he can surf safely and can walk there from his house, I think it's overly harsh to tell him to look out his window at the waves. The only risk is of him calling out the emergency services and we should trust people's judgement here a little perhaps?

It's a slightly different situation to climbing where I could climb at an empty venue 5 mins from my house, smother the holds in virus and infect the next poor bugger to turn up after I leave.

[Johnny Brown]

Despite knowing that clearly the government and police cannot give guidance for every single niche activity,

Not the case. The Police in Cornwall were asked specifically about surfing and said they had no issue as long as you weren't driving there.

And the Supreme court judge accusing Derbyshire police

Well his reasonable criticism of the Police was followed by a load of rubbish which rather undermined his credibility. Although Caff (no centrist) said he's put some good stuff out in the past so probably give him the benefit of the doubt.

The crux of the issue seems to not be the exercise, length or location, but whether it is acceptable to drive a short distance. I'd like to assume the police attend a lot of RTAs so regard it as higher risk than the rest of us, but I suspect it's more likely that they're an easy target.

Whereas in London - where hardly anyone drives anyway - the police are moving people on for sitting in the Park. Apparently exercise requires movement.

I don't think either are doing any favours. They should be concentrating on breaking up groups of people, particularly indoors, and stopping non-essential businesses from carrying on regardless.