[slab_happy]

yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing

Think it through, Adam. I'm going to get mine tomorrow not because I'm panicking, but because the booster program only stands a chance of doing its job if it happens before the health service hits the skids and/or Christmas is cancelled.

Yeah I get that, but people are queuing all night outside in the cold at a walk in vax place near me.  Like its the end of the world if they don't get it that day.

Guessing part of it's that the NHS booking website has crashed under the pressure, though "capacity" is allegedly being added.  So people decide they'll go for the walk-in option, and then collide with all the other people who've made the same decision.

Plus it takes 1-2 weeks for protection to kick in after a dose, so if people are planning to see elderly relatives at Christmas, they may want to get boosted a.s.a.p..

https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/ seems to be reporting on queue lengths in various places, if anyone's feeling keen.

[sdm]

I could believe, and do suspect, that “they” already have an insight into the likely impact of Omicron and are slowly dripping out the bad news.

I don't think this is the case. I don't think they know any more than a reasonably informed Twitter user with some understanding of statistics.

Figures from South Africa, Botswana etc have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt due to their different demographics, healthcare access, testing capabilities, and vaccine status.

Nowhere else is far enough along with Omicron to make judgements on the likely severity in a highly vaccinated population.

Much of the early reasoning in the press for anticipating Omicron being less severe can be ruled out as being journalists having a poor grasp of statistics. But we can't yet say whether it will be more or less severe so any attempt to quantify how bad it will be on healthcare would just be a stab in the dark. Assuming a similar severity to Delta seems to be a reasonable starting point for predictions/planning restrictions but the confidence intervals are very wide.

Everyone is crossing their fingers and waiting for more data.

[Oldmanmatt]

I could believe, and do suspect, that “they” already have an insight into the likely impact of Omicron and are slowly dripping out the bad news.

I don't think this is the case. I don't think they know any more than a reasonably informed Twitter user with some understanding of statistics.

Figures from South Africa, Botswana etc have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt due to their different demographics, healthcare access, testing capabilities, and vaccine status.

Nowhere else is far enough along with Omicron to make judgements on the likely severity in a highly vaccinated population.

Much of the early reasoning in the press for anticipating Omicron being less severe can be ruled out as being journalists having a poor grasp of statistics. But we can't yet say whether it will be more or less severe so any attempt to quantify how bad it will be on healthcare would just be a stab in the dark. Assuming a similar severity to Delta seems to be a reasonable starting point for predictions/planning restrictions but the confidence intervals are very wide.

Everyone is crossing their fingers and waiting for more data.

I agree, except…

I think that what is being hammered home to them, is that the evidence for increased transmissibility is pretty stark and that, unless it turns out to be markedly milder, that translates to a sudden and large, increase in admissions and probably deaths.
Admissions and deaths that were expected, for sure, but over a much longer timeframe.

I suppose, give or take, we were always going to lose most of the people who are now dying. Because vaccines will never be 100% effective, some would always refuse, some are just plain vulnerable. The Government’s ability to impose stringent lockdowns, that might slow the spread, is actually proscribed by public opinion. Given the hard evidence available, they’re actually moving quite fast, but they are almost certainly aware that that wall of Tsunami is bearing down on us and the only hope is that it might be milder. Unfortunately, to my layman’s eye, it would have to be so much milder, that the hope seems quite forlorn.

[AJM]

I tend to think if the current time is right, or at least close (and that is probably the thing we know most about?) then because it's so short that's all that really matters, as long as the others aren't more than an order of magnitude out.

Let's say you know the doubling time is 2.5 days as is widely quoted and you've taken the view it's as good at hospitalising people per case as Delta. You know you've got a fixed capacity of hospitalisations before it all goes tits up.

If you're wrong and it's only half as infectious as Delta..... You can survive twice as many cases! That's a whole doubling time..... of 2.5 days. Does it make much appreciable difference whether you hit that limit on say the 4th Jan rather than the 1st?

Obviously there's a lot more to it than that - it considers only fresh hospitalisations, where obviously a slower time would make the rate of discharge/length of stay more important, as well as 101 other things.

But whilst the doubling time is so fast your eventual conclusions are probably fairly robust to fairly significant changes to your assumptions about severity. I tend to think that basically the doubling time needs to slow right down. If it doesn't, then we've probably got to pin our hopes on severity Vs delta of like 10% or less? We have no idea on severity yet, obviously, but we can start to shape up what it would have to be in order not to break things.

[Steve R]

We have no idea on severity yet, obviously,

Absolutely nothing personal (actually reliably impressed with your input here and on ukc) but I'm getting increasingly triggered by the above 'we have no idea about x yet' sentiment.  It's as though no scientist or amateur covid analyser has ever heard of Bayes' theorem!

[tommytwotone]

Only my n=1, but I had COVID a couple of weeks ago.

Double-jabbed, I'm 43, fit(ish), GSOH etc etc.

No idea if I got an early taste of Omicron or what but blimey it knocked me sideways.

Like flu x 10 in terms of body aches. Mrs TTT had to take me for a PCR (I tested positive on a lateral flow on the Tuesday after waking up feeling like I'd downed 10 pints the night before), and every time the car hit a bump I was virtually in tears.

That went on for about 4 days, coupled with terrible awake-till-5am insomnia, horrible feverish sleep when I could, bad stomach, and of course total loss of taste and smell. Paracetamol etc didn't touch it at all.

Took about a week to even think about getting out of bed, and for all of last week (i.e the week post-self-isolation) I was wrecked. Bringing the Xmas tree out of the car into the house left me light-headed and needing a lie down, and a few hours of early Zoom meetings one day led to me needing to go for an hour's kip at 10am!

In contrast, daughter (7), who I assume gave it to me had a sniffle for a few days and that was it, and when Mrs TTT had it back in Sept she felt "a bit crap and tired" for 2 days, and then was completely normal for the rest of her self-isolation.

 

[slab_happy]

If anyone's got some spare time and energy, they're desperate for volunteer stewards:

https://nhsvolunteerresponders.org.uk/i-want-to-volunteer/volunteer-roles/steward-volunteer

No special skills needed, this is all checking details and shepherding people through so that everyone qualified can do the vaccinating.

[Paul B]

I got my booster today (Moderna on top of 2No. Pfizers).

The pharmacy was total chaos as on top of bookings it's also a walk-in and there didn't seem to be any segregation of how people were accessing their jab. Anyhow, mine was a mid morning appointment and he'd done 126 ppl before me. There was nothing in the way of waiting/observation after.

Lots of the walk-ins were from another nearby pharmacy that was offering appointments for this week but which they cancelled completely over the weekend.

[Duma]

I've got mine booked for next wed, went in to Swindon today to see if I could get a walk in earlier - massive queue at 8 (when they opened), stewards sent most of us home straight away as they only had enough doses for about 30% of the queue

[andy popp]

We both just got our boosters. I was booked in for Saturday, but my wife was not eligible until the end of the month. But the government announced a massive, immediate overhaul of the system yesterday afternoon, including hundreds of new pop-up locations, including a pharmacy a couple of hundred metres from our apartment. Considering it was the first day it was reasonably well organized. Go inside to collect a number and then go and stand in orderly line outside. We queued about 30 minutes I think. Very glad to get it done.

[Will Hunt]

I had an appointment booked but it seems to be a single queue for walk-ins and appointments. It's moving very quickly so shouldn't be more than 10 minutes waiting. I keep looking over my shoulder to check I don't get seen by Adam now I'm an official panic booster.

[slab_happy]

Only my n=1, but I had COVID a couple of weeks ago.

Double-jabbed, I'm 43, fit(ish), GSOH etc etc.

No idea if I got an early taste of Omicron or what but blimey it knocked me sideways.

Like flu x 10 in terms of body aches. Mrs TTT had to take me for a PCR (I tested positive on a lateral flow on the Tuesday after waking up feeling like I'd downed 10 pints the night before), and every time the car hit a bump I was virtually in tears.

That went on for about 4 days, coupled with terrible awake-till-5am insomnia, horrible feverish sleep when I could, bad stomach, and of course total loss of taste and smell. Paracetamol etc didn't touch it at all.

Took about a week to even think about getting out of bed, and for all of last week (i.e the week post-self-isolation) I was wrecked. Bringing the Xmas tree out of the car into the house left me light-headed and needing a lie down, and a few hours of early Zoom meetings one day led to me needing to go for an hour's kip at 10am!

In contrast, daughter (7), who I assume gave it to me had a sniffle for a few days and that was it, and when Mrs TTT had it back in Sept she felt "a bit crap and tired" for 2 days, and then was completely normal for the rest of her self-isolation.

Ooof, that sounds brutal. I hope you can take it easy until you're fully recovered; in my experience with viruses, it's easy to rush back into doing stuff too fast and dig yourself into a hole of post-viral fatigue.

[Will Hunt]

Phew. Think I got away with it unseen. No forms to fill in. In, confirm name and a few questions, sit down, jab, fuck off.

[seankenny]

Only my n=1, but I had COVID a couple of weeks ago.

Double-jabbed, I'm 43, fit(ish), GSOH etc etc.

No idea if I got an early taste of Omicron or what but blimey it knocked me sideways...

Ooof, that sounds brutal. I hope you can take it easy until you're fully recovered; in my experience with viruses, it's easy to rush back into doing stuff too fast and dig yourself into a hole of post-viral fatigue.

Seconding this. I got some kind of flu/virus-thing in September and then in October - first one definitely wasn't covid but I didn't check the second. I pushed myself a bit too hard when recovering, by which I mean first time bouldering at the wall for an hour, second time by walking for about an hour, each time I was ill for about a week after. I'm slowly recovering but I'm still a long way from being fully myself again. On Sunday I did a few easy hangs on my fingerboard and that night slept for over nine hours, absolutely knackered.

Digging myself out of this kind of hole is turning out to be extremely frustrating and slow...

[Paul B]

I got my booster today (Moderna on top of 2No. Pfizers).

Same place this PM and my wife was given Pfizer (making that her third). Up until this point we'd had the same (within 5 minutes of each other).

[Will Hunt]

I had an appointment booked but it seems to be a single queue for walk-ins and appointments. It's moving very quickly so shouldn't be more than 10 minutes waiting. I keep looking over my shoulder to check I don't get seen by Adam now I'm an official panic booster.

Having just read Paul and Duma's posts from earlier I thought I'd clarify. When I've been to Airedale hospital before you'd have to file down a row of chairs while filling in forms. Today was at a pharmacy in central Bradford and, although there was a queue to get into the tent at the back, once you were in you were called forward straight away. Name confirmed and then it was straight through to the pharmacy where I barely had time to roll up a sleeve before it was done. Then waiting in the pharmacy, though I chose to just start making my way home.

So it was initially alarming to see what looked like a big queue (there have been stories about people waiting for hours), but the whole process took about 10 - 15 minutes.

[slab_happy]

Congrats to everyone who's just been boosted; may your immune response be robust and your side-effects mild!

For you 3-dose mRNA people, enjoy these sexy sexy diagrams of how good your immunity against Omicron will be (given a week or two to kick in) -- new study just out using pseudovirus neutralization assays:

Moderna: https://twitter.com/BalazsLab/status/1470727025312686080
Pfizer: https://twitter.com/BalazsLab/status/1470727030165544969

A recent booster even beats "super-immunity" from "distant" (6-12 months ago) vaccination plus infection, which is exciting because that's still extremely strong.

Also, very interesting: https://twitter.com/BalazsLab/status/1470727055088099328

Overall, our findings suggest that boosting is doing a lot more than simply increasing your titers.  It seems to be broadening the antibody response to be better equipped to  recognize diverse variants. Hopefully it will still work against whatever variant comes next!

[dunnyg]

Without diving in, are the 3 dose diagrams on 'healthy' types, or those with the dodgy immune systems who will actually end up with a dose?

[slab_happy]

This is re:  boosters, rather than third doses in immunocompromised people who get 3 doses in their primary series.

[tommytwotone]

Assuming the "wait 4 weeks after you've had COVID" guidance is still in place, earliest I'd be eligible is (I think) next Weds. In two minds about rushing to get it done as a) I'd rather not scupper Xmas with potential side effects, b) I'm guessing I'm full to the hat-band with antibodies anyway, and c) I have a booking for 6th Jan anyway.

[Will Hunt]

I'd seen lots of complaints about nasty side effects but (n=1) I had Moderna and have been fine.

[teestub]

likewise, after feeling rough after fist AZ and fine after the second, Pfizer booster had no noticeable side effects (except the sore arm). You must be right about the antibodies though, glad you're starting to feel better dude, you've had a shit run of it!

[slab_happy]

Assuming the "wait 4 weeks after you've had COVID" guidance is still in place, earliest I'd be eligible is (I think) next Weds. In two minds about rushing to get it done as a) I'd rather not scupper Xmas with potential side effects, b) I'm guessing I'm full to the hat-band with antibodies anyway, and c) I have a booking for 6th Jan anyway.

Yeah, I don't know if anyone's got info or advice on optimal timing of boosters in people who are already "super-immune".

Effectively, getting Covid already functioned as a kind of "third dose" for you, and we know super-immunity holds up pretty strongly against Omicron:

https://twitter.com/JanineKimpel/status/1468700628922904591

Based on the Balazs Lab stuff, looks like you could potentially gain even more immunity by getting a booster at some point, but you're going to be in a decent position right now.

[Johnny Brown]

likewise, after feeling rough after fist AZ and fine after the second, Pfizer booster had no noticeable side effects (except the sore arm). You must be right about the antibodies though, glad you're starting to feel better dude, you've had a shit run of it!

Had almost zero with the first two AZ, Pf booster felt fine for 12 hours then woke up in night with sweats and heart pounding, really rough for 24 hrs, fine after 48. Have spoken to a few with similar.

[TobyD]

likewise, after feeling rough after fist AZ and fine after the second, Pfizer booster had no noticeable side effects (except the sore arm). You must be right about the antibodies though, glad you're starting to feel better dude, you've had a shit run of it!

Had almost zero with the first two AZ, Pf booster felt fine for 12 hours then woke up in night with sweats and heart pounding, really rough for 24 hrs, fine after 48. Have spoken to a few with similar.

I had pretty much the same,  felt roughest after jabs 1 and 3, although it wasn't anything that bad in retrospect. It certainly wouldn't deter me from having any jabs necessary in the future.