[Wellsy]

The reason why some restrictions are coming back feels to me to be 50% Omicron caution and 50% PM wanting to distract from the office party story

[JohnM]

The reason why some restrictions are coming back feels to me to be 50% Omicron caution and 50% PM wanting to distract from the office party story

Exactly this and the fact that countries rarely change their leaders during times of war or national crisis. Expect to hear things like "national effort" and "national crisis" coming out of Johnson's mouth.

[abarro81]

Daily deaths have been at about the same level since August so why all the recent fuss? I see there's another new variant (isn't there always?), but why are restrictions suddenly coming back now?

Exactly. People need to get a bloody grip.

This is a little bit like using that as an argument back in mid March 2020 ("we're not fucked yet and might not be so let's just do nothing"). It might be right... or it might be pretty wrong... a little bit of caution (e.g. masks and WFH) seems a minor imposition and might push things out a bit until most people are boosted, at which point it looks like we're back to about where we were on protection levels (but maybe with higher case numbers so still a bit more overloaded on the NHS)

[Will Hunt]

Since we're chatting about Johnson now I can say as an aside that my favourite bit of stupidity is people posting memes that express the view that because Boris had his Christmas quiz/party, that they will then do whatever the fuck they like. As if they might see Grant Shapps driving around without a seatbelt on and drawl "wElL I'm NoT FucKinG WeArinG OnE ThEN".

[slab_happy]

(In fact, those of us who had AZ get an upgrade to our protection, because we get in on that funky mix-and-match action.)

Does this work for other types too?. I.e. as someone who had two Pfizer doses, given the choice, should I get a Moderna booster?

Unclear -- Pfizer and Moderna are very similar (not just the same type of vaccine, but almost identical) so they don't have the effect of mixing different mechanisms of action that you do when mixing mRNA vaccines with viral vector vaccines.

The Lancet study got a response that was a bit higher when stacking a full dose of Moderna on top of two Pfizers:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

However, that may just be because Moderna went for a relatively higher dose as their "standard" dose than Pfizer did (which is also why it can hit a bit harder with side-effects).

Which is why they're using half-doses of Moderna for boosters, versus full doses of Pfizer.

On the basis of what we currently know, looks like three doses of any mRNA vax performs VERY strongly, so personally I wouldn't delay getting boosted in order to get a particular one.

[slab_happy]

Thanks for that. This:

Evidence is showing that a booster dose does wonders at kicking protection way back up again. Omicron can get past two doses worryingly well, but three block it (about as well as two doses do with Delta).

The data on that is REALLY POSITIVE and a huge relief. At three doses, it is as good at blocking the virus as before.

is a huge difference to how I was thinking about this before. I'd understood it to be that Omicron was still very good at evading boosters but, meh, it's the best chance you've got. Thanks for the info.

I find myself now very pro booster because I'd really like to keep using 36Chambers' board and going out to look at wet boulders.

Yeah, it's early days and information is coming in very very fast, but the data on boosters so far has been very encouraging!

This is Pfizer's lab study on neutralizing antibodies suggesting that three doses protects against Omicron about as effectively as two doses does against Original Flavour ("wild type"):

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-omicron-variant

[Paul B]

This is a little bit like using that as an argument back in mid March 2020 ("we're not fucked yet and might not be so let's just do nothing"). It might be right... or it might be pretty wrong... a little bit of caution (e.g. masks and WFH) seems a minor imposition and might push things out a bit until most people are boosted, at which point it looks like we're back to about where we were on protection levels (but maybe with higher case numbers so still a bit more overloaded on the NHS)

I don't share that optimism with the season being for end of year parties and general festivities. There's going to be a lot of mixing over the next few weeks.

Wasn't there a leak over the past 1-2 days that said Omicron needed to be significantly less serious than delta for the current measures (Plan B) to be effective?

[abarro81]

I was trying to be optimistic for Adam's sake

[Nigel]

Daily deaths have been at about the same level since August so why all the recent fuss? I see there's another new variant (isn't there always?), but why are restrictions suddenly coming back now?

Should be in the politics thread really as that is where the answer lies....but the reason is that deaths aren't the metric, emergency healthcare system capacity is (putting aside that they are somewhat correlated). IF the omicron model projections are correct (no idea on this btw) then there will be 1000's of hospitalisations per day. I.e. too many for the NHS to cope with and therefore the healthcare system will fail. For e.g. have a heart attack, call 999, nothing happens. No government in the world will risk this happening, for what should be a suite of very obvious reasons.

As I say I have no idea whether the above will happen. And because models aren't reality then there is a large grey area for politicians to work with to suit their own ends. But that is more or less the reasoning for every restriction we have ever had from the start until now.

[Adam Lincoln]

I was trying to be optimistic for Adam's sake

I just feel like this is going to go on for years, mutation after mutation, and more and more bullshit coming out of the government. Jab after jab.Booster after booster. Yes I have had all my jabs and yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing) but like most I am sure people are wondering if the end game will ever be in sight.

Sorry if that comes across brash.

[Will Hunt]

yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing

Think it through, Adam. I'm going to get mine tomorrow not because I'm panicking, but because the booster program only stands a chance of doing its job if it happens before the health service hits the skids and/or Christmas is cancelled.

[Adam Lincoln]

yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing

Think it through, Adam. I'm going to get mine tomorrow not because I'm panicking, but because the booster program only stands a chance of doing its job if it happens before the health service hits the skids and/or Christmas is cancelled.

Yeah I get that, but people are queuing all night outside in the cold at a walk in vax place near me.  Like its the end of the world if they don't get it that day.

[spidermonkey09]

Christmas is cancelled.

This is an interesting side note, but I'm willing to bet very very few people will be cancelling their christmas this year whatever the government say. Nothing particularly to do with their views on Tory xmas parties or whatever, just out of a general 'fuck that, I'm not missing it again.'

[slab_happy]

Incidentally, do we know why is this the case:

Omicron can get past two doses worryingly well, but three block it (about as well as two doses do with Delta).

I'd assumed that vaccine effectiveness followed an exponentially relaxing curve, with more doses improving protection but at a decreasing rate. Unless the 2-dose-bad 3-dose-good thing is an artefact of the timing of when vaccines were given (i.e. if you've had two doses its likely that your 2nd dose is now a bit old and "wearing off") then why is there such a step change between 2 and 3 doses?

This goes way beyond the scope of my very amateur knowledge, alas.

I know just enough to know that there's some very complex stuff about how different parts of the immune system learn to remember a virus and recognize different variants of it, and that I do not know that stuff!

I know that it's not just a question of "more doses improve protection but at a decreasing rate"; lots of vaccines require more than one dose as the primary series, with the first shot "priming" the immune system so that with the second shot, it learns to mount an effective response.

There is a thing of protection waning over time after Covid vaccination, it looks like, but that's not the major/only reason why Omicron gets around protection from two doses; it's heavily mutated so the immune system has a harder time "recognizing" it.

It may be that three doses of an mRNA vaccine works because they just produce such a blast of antibodies that it'll wipe out anything Covid-ish and it's triumphing through sheer volume. But there also seems to be some stuff about the immune system "refining" its response with each exposure.

Then there are other mechanisms that come into play when you're producing immunity from different angles, so to speak -- e.g.  by adding vaccination on top of previous infection. Here's a piece on "super-immunity" and why it's so cool (and why people are studying it intensely so we can try to produce something like it that doesn't require getting infected):

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02795-x

[Will Hunt]

Christmas is cancelled.

This is an interesting side note, but I'm willing to bet very very few people will be cancelling their christmas this year whatever the government say. Nothing particularly to do with their views on Tory xmas parties or whatever, just out of a general 'fuck that, I'm not missing it again.'

I completely agree, though the Tory Christmas Party is what people will say in mitigation to assuage any guilt they might have.

[abarro81]

I just feel like this is going to go on for years, mutation after mutation, and more and more bullshit coming out of the government. Jab after jab.Booster after booster. Yes I have had all my jabs and yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing) but like most I am sure people are wondering if the end game will ever be in sight.

Oh, I don't disagree with that, I was just meaning that deaths not having gone up just yet isn't necessarily a great metric for deciding what the gov should do or whether to run around shouting


My optimistic end-game scenario - omicron or some future variant is indeed less severe, and combined with occasional jabs and bits and bobs of immunity from infection it just ends up like a bad cold/flu... but there might be some more "kerfuffle" first... I'm happy to WFH and get boosted ASAP if it reduces chances of Jan lockdown and not getting to go to Spain in spring. (p.s. bet EU says 3rd jab needed for "full vaccination" sometime soon so worth having it just to get that in the bag if nothing else!)

[Paul B]

This is an interesting side note, but I'm willing to bet very very few people will be cancelling their christmas this year whatever the government say. Nothing particularly to do with their views on Tory xmas parties or whatever, just out of a general 'fuck that, I'm not missing it again.'

I've just cancelled my own pre-Christmas plans (including my own leaving do) as looking at the timeline it was looking like a perfect way to ensure we didn't get to see family this Christmas. I think if I was boosted + 1-2 weeks I'd have a different opinion.

[Adam Lincoln]

I just feel like this is going to go on for years, mutation after mutation, and more and more bullshit coming out of the government. Jab after jab.Booster after booster. Yes I have had all my jabs and yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing) but like most I am sure people are wondering if the end game will ever be in sight.

Oh, I don't disagree with that, I was just meaning that deaths not having gone up just yet isn't necessarily a great metric for deciding what the gov should do or whether to run around shouting


My optimistic end-game scenario - omicron or some future variant is indeed less severe, and combined with occasional jabs and bits and bobs of immunity from infection it just ends up like a bad cold/flu... but there might be some more "kerfuffle" first... I'm happy to WFH and get boosted ASAP if it reduces chances of Jan lockdown and not getting to go to Spain in spring. (p.s. bet EU says 3rd jab needed for "full vaccination" sometime soon so worth having it just to get that in the bag if nothing else!)

Yes I do worry about that 3rd jab being needed for full EU green light. I was late to the party on second jab as I was in America for 4 months. I can't get booster for another 2 months or so. Luckily by that point I'll be in Spain anyway. (Next week is the plan!)

[abarro81]

Get out while you still can!   

[User deactivated.]

Daily deaths have been at about the same level since August so why all the recent fuss? I see there's another new variant (isn't there always?), but why are restrictions suddenly coming back now?

Exactly. People need to get a bloody grip.

This is a little bit like using that as an argument back in mid March 2020 ("we're not fucked yet and might not be so let's just do nothing"). It might be right... or it might be pretty wrong... a little bit of caution (e.g. masks and WFH) seems a minor imposition and might push things out a bit until most people are boosted, at which point it looks like we're back to about where we were on protection levels (but maybe with higher case numbers so still a bit more overloaded on the NHS)

The same argument was used when Delta came around (this was the summer one right?), but restrictions weren't introduced and the health service didn't collapse. I wondered why the different approach for Omicron now, which has been answered (vaccine resistance).   

[Oldmanmatt]

I don’t believe Boris and Co. are going for increased restrictions just to cover up the party scandal.
It would be a counterproductive tactic, since it is unlikely to increase his popularity and most likely to alienate his core supporters.

I could believe, and do suspect, that “they” already have an insight into the likely impact of Omicron and are slowly dripping out the bad news. As others said, unfortunately today’s death rates, don’t really indicate where we’ll be in three weeks. Boris very nearly said as much today and I think was his lack of discipline, rather than a tactic. I expect there was an irate group of SPADs calling him a twat and praying for a higher being to shut-him-the-fuck-up; in the back room.

[Oldmanmatt]

On another note, I have to LFT daily, this week.
Having four kids, we usually have a stack of boxes of tests, because they’re testing three times per week. We only had one box available yesterday, so I figured I’d swing by the big Boots in Exeter on my way passed.

None available. None in any other branch in Exeter and they’d been out for three days already. Went to Lloyds, same story. Ended up driving back to the Bay and pinching what was left after the kids had tested. Which was expensive and time consuming. Anybody else come across this? Is it just Exeter?

[Paul B]

Anybody else come across this? Is it just Exeter?

No, it's widespread if Twitter is to be believed.

[Nigel]

The same argument was used when Delta came around (this was the summer one right?), but restrictions weren't introduced and the health service didn't collapse. I wondered why the different approach for Omicron now, which has been answered (vaccine resistance).

Broadly correct - Delta was countered by the vaccines and in fact restrictions were eased rather than introduced. Healthcare was "run hot" but not overwhelmed (a matter of opinion actually!). Omicron has vaccine resistance potentially leading to healthcare being overwhelmed. Its brutal but up to a certain point decided by public opinion / the media, Gov doesn't really care how many people die. But they do care if they can't provide one of the basic functions of a state, as no-one will accept that.

OMM is correct - very low Omicron death / hospitalisation rates today are meaningless as they haven't had time to feed through yet. Both metrics were very low in Feb 2020. They weren't low by March 2020. The worry is that Omicron's vaccine resistance may replicate that sort of scenario.

None of this might happen as hopefully the models which the government have seen are wrong, or they are right but the boosters work as planned, or its all just made up to distract from Xmas parties (!). But that is why restrictions have been introduced.

[Fiend]