[abarro81]

I struggle to understand your general point's relevance to this specific.

My point was basically this:

the possible range is still huge

and was in response to the final part of the article

"You can get everything from no wave, to a wave there's no need to worry about, to doomsday; that's the problem there is massive uncertainty," he said.

It makes me feel better about times when the gap between my "low" and "high" scenarios is enormous.

[Wellsy]

The estimates have often not been correct

We were supposed to be hitting 100k cases in August, instead cases dropped. The forecasts by many professionals were incorrect. Famously Prof. Ferguson amongst them.

Anyone who says they know what will happen either way is delusional. We don't know enough yet re. Omicron.

[Offwidth]

You're comparing apples with oranges in the forecast stakes. S gene drop-out data was from days ago and the doubling looks closer to two days on that. There is a very high probability prediction omicron will be more than half of Scottish cases in just a week, in the news today. Those predictions from models you refer to had high uncertainty and were associated with all sorts of provisos (including, crucially, if we do nothing about it) and were often misused in the media.

As an aside, wintertree just pointed out the fact that UK case data doesn't include re-infections, that might already  be leading to a serious undercount of current omicron cases.

From Guardian live

"Nicola Sturgeon has just started her televised update on Omicron in Scotland with some sobering words and numbers: she says that the country is facing “a potential tsumani of infections”, explaining that the new variant is showing “the fastest exponential growth we have seen in this pandemic so far”.

There were 5,018 positive cases in Scotland on Friday, a sharp rise on the average of 2,800 daily cases that health officials have been reporting recently.

There were a total of 110 Omicron cases, up from just nine when the variant was first detected in Scotland on 30 November.

The Scottish government has just published an evidence paper on Omicron, which suggests that Omicron is “rising exponentially” – officials believe the doubling time is closer to two than three days, and that Omicron is going to very quickly overtake Delta as dominant variant, maybe as early as next week."

[Offwidth]

I struggle to understand your general point's relevance to this specific.

My point was basically this:

the possible range is still huge

and was in response to the final part of the article

"You can get everything from no wave, to a wave there's no need to worry about, to doomsday; that's the problem there is massive uncertainty," he said.

It makes me feel better about times when the gap between my "low" and "high" scenarios is enormous.

In that context a totally fair point. My apologies.

[slab_happy]

Getcha fucking boosters, people:

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/booster-jabs-omicron-protection-symptoms-immunity-1347058

Protection against severe illness probably holds up much better, but protection against symptomatic infection from two doses taaaaaaanks against Omicron, especially for people vaccinated with AZ.

On the other hand, AZ plus Pfizer (either as heterologous first and second doses or doses plus booster) is looking strong against Omicron:

https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1468828325263159296
https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1469360029262397442

And that's the combo that got the wild T-cell response in the COM-COV trial.

So those of us who got AZ initially may be in a pretty nice position -- if we get that booster (got mine on Thurs).

Looks like various places are being pragmatic and vaccinating under-40s as soon as they've got capacity:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/gps-offer-covid-boosters-to-under-40s-against-nhs-guidance
https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/

[Offwidth]

The UKHSA advice given to Javid has been leaked to the Guardian. It includes information on when stricter measures than Plan B need to be introduced, depending on percentages hospitalised by omicon (still not known) and for three levels of  extra daily admissions. The advice is worst case in those scenarios we need tighter restrictions on 8th, best case on 19th.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

[sdm]

So those of us who got AZ initially may be in a pretty nice position -- if we get that booster (got mine on Thurs).

Looks like various places are being pragmatic and vaccinating under-40s as soon as they've got capacity:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/gps-offer-covid-boosters-to-under-40s-against-nhs-guidance
https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/

Everyone I know here (Northants) in their 30s is now boosted. All invited by our GPs, I don't think under 40s can book without an invite yet. Colleagues in their 40s and 50s were all boosted weeks ago.

Meanwhile, I know 65+year olds in Derbyshire who aren't boosted yet and not for lack of trying.

The postcode lottery seems even more extreme than for 1st/2nd doses.

[Will Hunt]

Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?

I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.

[kelvin]

Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?

I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.

I had a moderna booster, as did Lagers

[duncan]

Boosters are supposedly for over 40s so all are supposed to be Pfizer or Moderna. They are both mRNA vaccines and work in a similar fashion so [theorising] it should make little difference which one you have [/theorising].

My booster was Pfizer.

[andy popp]

Just booked mine, for next Saturday.

[slab_happy]

Boosters are supposedly for over 40s so all are supposed to be Pfizer or Moderna. They are both mRNA vaccines and work in a similar fashion so [theorising] it should make little difference which one you have [/theorising].

My booster was Pfizer.

They're very very similar in structure, but apparently the standard Moderna dose is a bit higher (which is why it can also tend to hit a bit harder with side-effects), so that might make a difference. But yeah, otherwise they're basically the same.

[Offwidth]

Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?

I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.

Most are Moderna now due to supply issues. Pfizer more likely in walk-ins as they are trying to encourage frist and second doses.

[Offwidth]

So those of us who got AZ initially may be in a pretty nice position -- if we get that booster (got mine on Thurs).

Looks like various places are being pragmatic and vaccinating under-40s as soon as they've got capacity:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/gps-offer-covid-boosters-to-under-40s-against-nhs-guidance
https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/

Everyone I know here (Northants) in their 30s is now boosted. All invited by our GPs, I don't think under 40s can book without an invite yet. Colleagues in their 40s and 50s were all boosted weeks ago.

Meanwhile, I know 65+year olds in Derbyshire who aren't boosted yet and not for lack of trying.

The postcode lottery seems even more extreme than for 1st/2nd doses.

My parents are in Northants... their Weedon GPs have been superb on vaccination throughput throughout, as good as any I've heard of in the UK.

[slab_happy]

Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?

I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.

If I'm reading https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext correctly (someone check in case I'm not), people who've had two Pfizers might get an even higher antibody response with Moderna rather than a third Pfizer, though you may also get whapped harder with side-effects.

However, three doses of any mRNA vax performs very strongly, so personally I wouldn't delay getting boosted in order to get a particular one.

[Fultonius]

I've had double pfizer & covid. I guess I won't get a booster for a while now?

Any stats on the protection this scenario provides?

[slab_happy]

I've had double pfizer & covid. I guess I won't get a booster for a while now?

Any stats on the protection this scenario provides?

Yup! Preliminary Omicron neutralization stats here -- you're in figure h, "super-immune"  :

https://twitter.com/JanineKimpel/status/1468700628922904591

(B.1.1.529 is Omicron.)

You need to wait 28 days after having Covid (starting from the date when you first had symptoms, or from when you had a positive test if you didn't get any symptoms) before you can get a booster, but then you're good to go:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/

[Offwidth]

Its a ninety day wait for kids ....part of the reason it will be so hard to catch up in those groups.

[Nails]

I've had double AZ followed by Covid followed by a Moderna booster. My wife's had double Pfizer followed by Covid with a booster booked for a week today. My 9 yr old daughter has had Covid and no jabs. My 12 yr old son has had Covid and a Pfizer jab at the beginning of October. We're booked to fly to Spain on 1st of Jan but according to current rules we can't as anyone 12 or over has to be fully jabbed. After much research there appears to be no way of getting my 12 year old a second jab and therefore no way of getting to Spain. First world problems I know but I'd be interested if anyone knew a way around this?

[Duma]

I thought current guidance was under 16s only got one jab?

[Fultonius]

YYFY super immune.

Nails, could you go by road via France? Not sure of their rules are any different.

Would just be nice if you could do a antibody test instead. Seems logical!

[slab_happy]

I thought current guidance was under 16s only got one jab?

I think that's the problem. Doesn't qualify as "fully vaccinated" by Spain's standards, but they can't get a second one in the UK yet:

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/travel/travel-spain-announces-children-aged-12-and-over-must-have-both-covid-vaccinations-for-holidays-from-december-1325649

The JCVI's very recently changed its recommendations to say that 12-15-year-olds should be offered a second dose, but unclear when that's going to start happening.

And it's supposed to be with at least a 12 week gap, and if I'm reading this correctly, Spain only counts you as "fully vaccinated" from two weeks after jab 2:

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/en/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/spth.htm

[Offwidth]

I thought current guidance was under 16s only got one jab?

I was adding to what slab_happy said....if you are under 18 you have to wait longer after any covid infection before you get your jab. A lot of under 18 year olds have had covid in the last 3 months. Its a real shame as some locally queued for over an hour not knowing this and were turned away.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/

"If you or your child are under 18 years old and not at higher risk from COVID-19, you need to wait 12 weeks before getting a 1st dose after a positive COVID-19 test."

[slab_happy]

YYFY super immune.

Yeah, you can see in the charts there's still some drop-off in the antibody neutralization against Omicron, because its immune escape capacity is really nasty, but you're WAY ahead of anyone who's only had two jabs.

Mandatory disclaimer that I am not a doctor or an immunologist, but I'd think if you stick a booster on top of that then you probably become bulletproof.

[sdm]

The NHS website has just opened to bookings for under 40s without an invite (I'm not sure what the new age cutoff is). Lots of people reporting being able to book slots within the next week.

On booking, your confirmation email will say:

"If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter."

I know people have booked them anyway with the expectation that the website change is a precursor for the invite rule changing. They're hopeful that people will no longer get turned away by the time their appointment comes around.