[Ged]

Do you mind me asking which secondary school matt? We teach in Ashburton, and have had pretty much no cases the whole time so far, but I suspect that will change soon.

Our school has already made our return plans for September, based on probably having to test every student before the start back (uptake of home tests is 15%).  Hilariously the gov have said they will confirm the requirements for what schools need to do on... Wait for it... September 4th! Cheers lads.

[Oldmanmatt]

We have two in Cuthbert and that’s the one with yrs 7 and 8 shutdown. Our yr7 is home and back on Google classroom. Because my eldest has finished, we only have one at Spires and they have yr10 shut down and two other “close contact” bubbles out. Our son is yr7 there and has a few classmates out due to being siblings of isolating yr10s. TA have two bubbles out and according to the staff that bring the TGBS PE class twice a week, they’re (much smaller) yr9 bubbles are out.
We also have had four requests (at the Bunker) for extension to monthly passes, because the kids have to isolate. That two TGBS sixth formers and a  sibling combo yr11+8 at Churston. We also know of several primary kids of friend who tested positive (lateral flow) last week.

[slab_happy]

Handy round-up of walk-in vaccination sites open this weekend:

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1411264535663624194

[Ged]

We have two in Cuthbert and that’s the one with yrs 7 and 8 shutdown. Our yr7 is home and back on Google classroom. Because my eldest has finished, we only have one at Spires and they have yr10 shut down and two other “close contact” bubbles out. Our son is yr7 there and has a few classmates out due to being siblings of isolating yr10s. TA have two bubbles out and according to the staff that bring the TGBS PE class twice a week, they’re (much smaller) yr9 bubbles are out.
We also have had four requests (at the Bunker) for extension to monthly passes, because the kids have to isolate. That two TGBS sixth formers and a  sibling combo yr11+8 at Churston. We also know of several primary kids of friend who tested positive (lateral flow) last week.

Jeez. Seems like South Devon isn't escaping this wave

[IanP]

I did this a couple of days ago, but there hasn’t been a significant change in slope in the meantime:



Now, that’s obviously a down and dirty, photoshop comparison of cases (red) to hospitalisations (blue) and I compressed the Y axis by ~ 10, simply by altering the frame ratio; so it ain’t brilliant. It was easier than check data day by day against the autumn wave though.
It seems pretty obvious that the hospitalisation curve bears little similarity to the autumn, relative to cases, whereas the case rate escalation seem very similar.

This seems to be where things are really different, as would be hoped if the vaccines work.

Interesting that this sort of comparison doesn't seem to readily available in the media so put the 7 day rolling data into a chart, multiplying admissions and deaths numbers to bring the the trends into scale.



As per your image, shows really clearly how hospital admissions and deaths seem to have a very much lower correlation to cases when compared to autumn/winter.

[slab_happy]

Where is this stuff about vaccine dangers coming from? Not seen any evidence for it, bar a tiny% of thromboses. 

For anyone who fancies a blast from the past (or isn't old enough to remember it), see this excellent run-down of the Andrew Wakefield saga, because as I have mentioned elsewhere it's one of my life goals to ensure that everyone hates him as much as I do:



Wakefield's very much around and part of the current anti-vax movement, but more generally, I think it left a vague sense floating around that maybe there are insidious secret dangers with vaccines for kids.

N.B. I think it's perfectly reasonable to want maximum safety data before vaccinating healthy younger kids for something where their risk is very low. Rare side-effects like the myocarditis thing do show up, so we want to know what the risk picture is. Side-effects are a thing!

But there's a lot of anxiety around about how vaccines might cause some kind of harm to a child's "development" if given at the wrong time or in the wrong way, which I think may be more of a hangover from the Wakefield stuff than a reflection of the kind of side-effects we might actually run into.

[battery]

I did this a couple of days ago, but there hasn’t been a significant change in slope in the meantime:



Now, that’s obviously a down and dirty, photoshop comparison of cases (red) to hospitalisations (blue) and I compressed the Y axis by ~ 10, simply by altering the frame ratio; so it ain’t brilliant. It was easier than check data day by day against the autumn wave though.
It seems pretty obvious that the hospitalisation curve bears little similarity to the autumn, relative to cases, whereas the case rate escalation seem very similar.

This seems to be where things are really different, as would be hoped if the vaccines work.

Interesting that this sort of comparison doesn't seem to readily available in the media so put the 7 day rolling data into a chart, multiplying admissions and deaths numbers to bring the the trends into scale.



As per your image, shows really clearly how hospital admissions and deaths seem to have a very much lower correlation to cases when compared to autumn/winter.

The stats are encouraging, however the situation on the ground is seemingly pretty grim. My friend working in A&E says it is VERY busy and they are seeing an increasing number of covid related admissions. My friend who is an intensive care nurse looks ready to drop, she's actively job hunting, lots of covid cases mean they're back in all the PPE and she dreads going to work, she has nothing left to give.

Both friends have said that the majority of admissions are 30 and 40 years olds who haven't been vaccinated. 

[slab_happy]

Is it not just going to be a wave of cases (which was always inevitable), mainly in the young, with a relatively small increase in deaths, predominantly among the unvaccinated and the very unlucky few whose vaccine doesn't protect them?

That's the hope, yeah.

Hospitalizations are now going up exponentially -- it's from a very low base, but the problem with exponentials is that small numbers get big fast. A much lower percentage of cases are leading to hospitalizations, which is what would be expected because of vaccines: infections are skewing towards younger and less vulnerable groups anyway (because others are vaccinated), and vaccinated people who get breakthrough infections have good odds that it'll be less severe. 

There are also some indications that average stays may be a bit shorter (again because of the younger age groups). But on the other hand some doctors have expressed concern that you're going to get higher demands for ICU and ventilators relative to the number of hospitalized patients  -- in the last few waves, many frail and elderly patients never got admitted to ICU at all because they wouldn't survive it anyway, whereas younger and more resilient patients may be more able to survive and benefit from aggressive treatment, which increases the demand on those resources.

And the link between hospitalizations and deaths is obviously not broken, though hopefully it's also weakened (younger patients, not to mention improved treatment knowledge since the first wave). Fully vaccinated people who end up in hospital will skew towards people who got severely ill despite the vaccine because they have a reduced immune response -- e.g. people who are very elderly and/or immunocompromised for another reason.

People are crossing their fingers that it will stay all under the level where the NHS has to start cancelling cancer operations etc. again.

As I understand it, an exit wave of some kind is inevitable (unless we stayed locked down until the entire population was vaccinated), and various sensible people seem to feel that it's better to get through the wave now rather than pushing it into winter.

In which case, this may be the "least worst" option open to us. And it's already clear from the numbers that it's not going to look like previous waves; the link between cases and hospitalizations has been substantially weakened. But. Could still be pretty rough for a few months (especially if the government goes with what's currently being briefed to the Sunday Times et al and drop all requirements for masks and social distancing from the 19th).

Sitrep from an intensive care doctor:

https://twitter.com/rupert_pearse/status/1411214888098217988

Some graphs:

https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1410897378295619588

Decent thread:

https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1411235980468797444

[Offwidth]

Where is this stuff about vaccine dangers coming from? Not seen any evidence for it, bar a tiny% of thromboses. 

For anyone who fancies a blast from the past (or isn't old enough to remember it), see this excellent run-down of the Andrew Wakefield saga, because as I have mentioned elsewhere it's one of my life goals to ensure that everyone hates him as much as I do:

Wakefield's very much around and part of the current anti-vax movement, but more generally, I think it left a vague sense floating around that maybe there are insidious secret dangers with vaccines for kids.

N.B. I think it's perfectly reasonable to want maximum safety data before vaccinating healthy younger kids for something where their risk is very low. Rare side-effects like the myocarditis thing do show up, so we want to know what the risk picture is. Side-effects are a thing!

But there's a lot of anxiety around about how vaccines might cause some kind of harm to a child's "development" if given at the wrong time or in the wrong way, which I think may be more of a hangover from the Wakefield stuff than a reflection of the kind of side-effects we might actually run into.

Glad to help.

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-anti-vax-conspiracy

[slab_happy]

Glad to help.

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-anti-vax-conspiracy

Good call, that's also very good, especially when it comes to breaking down how the contemporary anti-vax movement is a huge money-making business.

[petejh]

Calling something ‘money-making’ shouldn’t be pejorative. My weekly grocery shop is a huge money-making business for Tesco, bastards. It should be more than enough to point out anti-vax ideas are bullshit.

[kac]

Pete how about making money out of spreading disinformation about vaccines if you know it is going to lead to lots of people dying? Is that OK?

[slab_happy]

Calling something ‘money-making’ shouldn’t be pejorative.

It's not perjorative -- just informative, when the people making huge quantities of money out of the anti-vaxx movement are portraying themselves as poor persecuted martyrs standing up against the evil capitalist ways of Big Pharma out of purest altruism and love of truth.

And relevant knowledge for people to have, when it comes to evaluating their claims.

[petejh]

Pete how about making money out of spreading disinformation about vaccines if you know it is going to lead to lots of people dying? Is that OK?

Want to get into a philosophical debate about the damaging consequences of things that ‘make money’? Go right ahead but it quickly gets murky whose disinformation is ok to make money from and whose isn’t. And you know what they say about fools and their money.

The wrongness of the anti-vax lot is that the science is bullshit, not that it makes money. There are plenty of sources of misinformation and bullshit at varying levels of seriousness causing varying degrees of harm to people and the environment.

[kac]

No interest whatsoever Pete. Just curious what you thought as you seem to suggest making money this way is the same as making money selling groceries.

Anyway I have learnt something about the anti vax movement so thanks for posting.

[slab_happy]

Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/pJCvN4EveYt2/

Lots of these kind of messages popping up everywhere except mainstream media. I think we need to start thinking a little bit more critically about the whole Covid situation. We all know how corrupt most politicians are and how powerful big Pharma is. That in it's self is enough to question everything. Who owns big Pharma? What's the agenda of the WEF?

Gosh, it has never occurred to me to be critical of anything ever, you have opened my eyes! WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!!

You're linking to videos of Mike Yeadon? MIKE YEADON? Come the fuck on.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/michael-yeadon-vaccine-death/
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-vaccines-skeptic/

Aside from the revolting bigotry (and silly lying about being hacked to cover it up), of course:

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2021/02/covid-sceptic-favourite-is-sick-bigot.html

[andy popp]

Also, anyone using the term "big Pharma" should be required to provide a precise, workable definition.

[slab_happy]

I suppose "large pharmaceutical companies" would be a workable definition, and many of them (like large companies across all other industries) have track records of dodgy behaviour of one kind or another.

"Big Pharma" is much better for making them sound like a single gigantic world-spanning conspiracy network, of course.

Not clear how they're going to be making money by ... killing off most of the world's population? I gather that's the latest theory? ... but I'm sure the anti-vaxxers can tell us.

[Bonjoy]

Dan messaged me to say this is not one his pseudonymous accounts.

[petejh]

Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/pJCvN4EveYt2/

Lots of these kind of messages popping up everywhere except mainstream media. I think we need to start thinking a little bit more critically about the whole Covid situation. We all know how corrupt most politicians are and how powerful big Pharma is. That in it's self is enough to question everything. Who owns big Pharma? What's the agenda of the WEF?

One of the reasons my shares in tin producers are doing so well.
Idiot.

[lagerstarfish]

I suppose "large pharmaceutical companies" would be a workable definition, and many of them (like large companies across all other industries) have track records of dodgy behaviour of one kind or another.

"Big Pharma" is much better for making them sound like a single gigantic world-spanning conspiracy network, of course.

Not clear how they're going to be making money by ... killing off most of the world's population? I gather that's the latest theory? ... but I'm sure the anti-vaxxers can tell us.

Because they have been secretly buying up all of the funeral services and graveyards, obviously

[Fiend]

Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/pJCvN4EveYt2/

If you are genuinely interested in what UKBers think, could you please post an article or two summarising the issues, for people who aren't able to watch a 35 minute video right now?? Ta.

[lagerstarfish]

I suppose "large pharmaceutical companies" would be a workable definition, and many of them (like large companies across all other industries) have track records of dodgy behaviour of one kind or another.

"Big Pharma" is much better for making them sound like a single gigantic world-spanning conspiracy network, of course.

Not clear how they're going to be making money by ... killing off most of the world's population? I gather that's the latest theory? ... but I'm sure the anti-vaxxers can tell us.

Because they have been secretly buying up all of the funeral services and graveyards, obviously

soon to be known as Large Funa

[abarro81]

Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: [...]  I think we need to start thinking a little bit more critically about the whole Covid situation.

If you got past 45s and didn't already spot some flaws in his argument then you need to sharpen your critical thinking skills. I stopped after that, not worth the time.

[Fiend]

I didn't get past flicking the pointer to the end to see how long it is (and it's actually 47 minutes which shows how much attention I was paying).

Still, if EWS wants to engage about this, they deserve a fair chance.