[AJM]

Thats a fair cop. I am probably hypersensitive to suggestions that things change/slow down because I'm fed up of the whole thing and haven't even been jabbed yet!

That’s fairly in tune with how I read your “which I consider to be absolutely paramount given our current vaccination status” in your other post - it’s taking the point around what might mitigate long Covid and framing it with this position that effectively says “we can go no slower” (noting your additional nuance further down, but you know what I mean)

I don't think that strategy is endorsed at all by some of the pieces shared/people quoted on the thread, which gets my back up because I essentially don't think people who don't agree with mitigation should be listened to anymore.

I think in some respects the current situation is easy, in that most of the discussion is just around timing of a return to relative normality. Mitigation is currently the only real game in town because all the other options carry a higher cost of some form - if it works as we hope, mitigation delivers us relative normality, with no system overload and manageable excess deaths. It runs risks - of variants etc - but as a species we are not good at judging low probability high impact risks (especially when even an entirely objective calculation would founder given the lack of information about exactly how low probability and how high impact) so many people would probably be happy with this. We run lots of these sorts of risks - pandemic flu, nuclear war, etc - without often stopping to think about it.

Difficulty will only really arise if something changes - significantly greater step ups in transmissibility for example that mean vaccines as currently set out (optional, at current levels of effectiveness, blah blah) can’t deliver that relative normality alone any more. Then I think the choices get far harder because you start to get a lot of unappealing options as to what permanent changes you want or don’t want to make to manage it.

[battery]

I know there are a few females on here and many of you have mentioned partners so here we go...

...there is seemingly growing anecdotal evidence that the vaccine can have an effect on menstruation (pleas note, I am not saying that it is a negative effect and NO ONE is suggesting that women should not get the vaccine). However, given that it appears the data from trials wasn't even split into genders, there is (of course) no evidence around it. This study is trying to begin to plug that gap.

https://redcap.healthinstitute.illinois.edu/surveys/index.php?s=LL8TKKC8DP&utm_campaign=Invisible%20Women&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter

[tomtom]

Not heard about that Battery :-/ only just heard that it can help with long Covid.

In other news the MEN are saying inessential travel to and from Bolton is to be stopped - and hospital admissions there are rising..

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/government-advises-against-travel-out-20667478

[Paul B]

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1396911012952133636?s=19

That's a tweet for Spidermonkey right there! Bolton, Blackburn, Leicester 

[spidermonkey09]

Now that is pointless.
Nobody wins there: stokes a load of local resentment and has zero effect because its guidance not law which people will ignore, and with justificstion. If I have learned anything from the last year its that local restrictions are useless!

[Offwidth]

If you're not a 'zero covid' proponent why would you discuss covid cases returning to 'near zero'? Do you believe that cases could actually ever reach near zero and remain there? If so how?

I'm assuming covid variants are now with us for the rest of our lifetimes. Isn't discussing 'near zero' as unrealistic as discussing cases of flu 'returning to near zero'?

Simply because if covid cases hit near zero lots of covid suffering remains from long covid and fairly recent deaths. I'm pretty optimistic medium term about new hospitalisations and deaths as current and planned vaccines and boosters should keep new outbreak risks low enough to be handled by a hopefully improved track and trace. I can also see improvement in flu response thanks to this pandemic. There is still risk... most worrying newer variant vaccine escape (thanks to not enough help in places away from the west). Also that home office incompetence (after a month of complaints from airport management), which led to mixed queues from red, amber and green zones at Heathrow last week, is still scary.

[Offwidth]

Now that is pointless.
Nobody wins there: stokes a load of local resentment and has zero effect because its guidance not law which people will ignore, and with justificstion. If I have learned anything from the last year its that local restrictions are useless!

I thought a 'zero covid strategy' might be part of your concern from the Guardian etc. Most of these Indie SAGE people are pragmatists (I know one of them pretty well from many meetings a decade plus back). What is meant by that term is to hit new outbreaks hard until levels are very low, not literally zero. We failed to do anything like that in the UK when we could (September onwards) and just had more deaths and longer lockdowns than SE asian developed countries. In a near fully vaccinated population the game changes and restrictions can be a lot lighter (unless there is a new variant breakout such that vaccines are no longer effective).

Indie SAGE point out currently, that the data models, taking into account current vaccination, indicates risk is still at hospital overload level if we just let things rip and nothing is done to stop it. It's a situation that won't happen as government will be forced to apply the brakes again with control measures. It's just a 'what if' scenario. It's not scaremongering but it does mean we need to be careful. Indie SAGE also rightly advised much more care at immigration and in schools.

I think anyone not fed up with covid is a freak but I think its important to pay attention with this government despite that emotion.

Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.

[galpinos]

Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.

I would say their effectiveness is limited when you don't actual tell anyone, don't inform local leaders, don't do a press release and just update your website!

[kelvin]

I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.

[tomtom]

Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.

I would say their effectiveness is limited when you don't actual tell anyone, don't inform local leaders, don't do a press release and just update your website!

Apparently the advice was updated on the 15th and the website update timestamped 21st... face palm etc...

[gollum]

Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.

I would say their effectiveness is limited when you don't actual tell anyone, don't inform local leaders, don't do a press release and just update your website!

Apparently the advice was updated on the 15th and the website update timestamped 21st... face palm etc...

You really couldn’t make it up.

[slab_happy]

I know there are a few females on here and many of you have mentioned partners so here we go...

...there is seemingly growing anecdotal evidence that the vaccine can have an effect on menstruation (pleas note, I am not saying that it is a negative effect and NO ONE is suggesting that women should not get the vaccine). However, given that it appears the data from trials wasn't even split into genders, there is (of course) no evidence around it. This study is trying to begin to plug that gap.

https://redcap.healthinstitute.illinois.edu/surveys/index.php?s=LL8TKKC8DP&utm_campaign=Invisible%20Women&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter

Oh yeah, this is Dr Kate Clancy's study! I was thinking of posting about this. She's a badass, and very pro-vax, and very clear that what she's trying to do is gather info on whether this is a common temporary side-effect so that people can be forewarned about it and not panic that something is seriously wrong.

Anecdotally, for most people who get it (I didn't, at least on dose 1), it seems to be a period that's heavier or earlier than usual for a cycle or two max. And some people who don't currently menstruate (because of birth control or menopause, or trans guys who are on testosterone) get a bit of breakthrough bleeding.

On Twitter: https://twitter.com/KateClancy/with_replies

However, given that it appears the data from trials wasn't even split into genders, there is (of course) no evidence around it.

To be a bit pedantic, there is considerable evidence around it (e.g. that the vaccines don't affect fertility or pregnancy at all), so we know a lot of the parameters of what isn't affected.

But yeah, sounds like it's not on the list of common side-effects that get asked about specifically, and maybe was something people felt uncomfortable about mentioning spontaneously.

Good, clear and sensible round-up of the whole thing from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56901353

Dr Viki Male (immunologist working on pregnancy at Imperial, quoted in the article) is also a badass and maintains a great explainer on what's currently known about Covid vaccines, pregnancy, fertility, and breastfeeding:

https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1367099701238116353

She's very good at answering questions on Twitter in a non-patronizing and non-combative way. Top science communication.

[galpinos]

I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.

Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)

[Offwidth]

Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.

I would say their effectiveness is limited when you don't actual tell anyone, don't inform local leaders, don't do a press release and just update your website!

A tweet with the wonderful video link from ITV news in case anyone missed it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukiswitheu/status/1397100407567040512

[Offwidth]

I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.

Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)

So were your family 'neen' or 'nen' in pronunciation? We were "nen" (Bugbrooke and Harpole).

[kelvin]

I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.

Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)

Cogenhoe

[kelvin]

I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.

Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)

So were your family 'neen' or 'nen' in pronunciation? We were "nen" (Bugbrooke and Harpole).

And definitely Nen.

We were moored last year next to a guy from Peterborough and he called it the Nene.

[galpinos]

Cogenhoe

Small world. I used to have a summer job in Cogenhoe, at ALA Metal Fabrications at Roe Farm on Whiston Road.

[galpinos]

So were your family 'neen' or 'nen' in pronunciation? We were "nen" (Bugbrooke and Harpole).

Nen. No-one from my childhood said neen.

[slab_happy]

This is an amazing and fascinating story:

https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1396860850699395074
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/may/25/influencers-say-russia-linked-pr-agency-asked-them-to-disparage-pfizer-vaccine

[Offwidth]

I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.

Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)

Cogenhoe

Ah "cook-know".

[battery]

You can't make this up...

https://www.bedford.gov.uk/news/Latest-News/2021-05-25-updated-statement-on-covid-restrictions/

[slab_happy]

https://twitter.com/pmholling/status/1397113881043128321

Bolton and Rochdale absolutely crushing it getting vaccines into arms.

[TobyD]

I don't know if a link has been posted before but this is interesting in a  geeky way

https://airborne.cam/

I think we're heading for another Autumn and Winter of soaring infections, and ineffectual local lockdown. Data not dates has been a bit dubious so far at best, if they go for full or nearly full opening up on June 21, I think we're stuffed and the reliance on data will have been a total lie.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/29/covid-in-england-what-is-the-impact-of-lifting-restrictions-on-21-june?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[Oldmanmatt]

I don't know if a link has been posted before but this is interesting in a  geeky way

https://airborne.cam/

I think we're heading for another Autumn and Winter of soaring infections, and ineffectual local lockdown. Data not dates has been a bit dubious so far at best, if they go for full or nearly full opening up on June 21, I think we're stuffed and the reliance on data will have been a total lie.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/29/covid-in-england-what-is-the-impact-of-lifting-restrictions-on-21-june?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

It will surely look very different, this time. 74% of the adult population has had it’s first vaccine dose, 48% the second and those numbers increasing by 1/4 million per day and a 1/2 million per day respectively. That’s going to massively impact the hospitalisation and death curve peaks, this Autumn.
Also, the highly localised nature of current outbreaks, with large swathes of the country seeing suppressed or extremely low rates. The official maps are a little miss leading in that respect (for instance, the South Hams show as a moderate outbreak, over a largeish area, because they have 9 new cases, some Northern areas show the same scale/colour because they’ve had 800 new cases).
If (if) the vaccine(s) succeeds in suppressing the disease into something more akin to a very bad Flu season, we will not be looking at such extreme mitigation measures.