[Loos3-tools]

Poor old Geert, from doomsday prophet and vaccine messiah to dead duck. Give the man a job somebody!

Roll up to roll up, and down and up and down and up and down. Sleeveless shirts to make a comeback? Permanently.

Martin Kulldorff has some crossover with Geert in that he believes in proportionate vaccination. Although I haven’t fully checked his credentials or when he last published in the lancet.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1248617666308235264

 

[tomtom]

In the context of the AZ blood clot decisions made by several EU states - it’s worth bearing in mind that some medications widely accepted and commonly taken (such as the pill) have proven associations with causing blood clots - at rates order(s) of magnitude greater than those purported for the AZ vaccine.

E.G. https://www.stoptheclot.org/about-clots/webinar_contra/birth_control_clots/

(One of many articles about this..)

[andy popp]

The decisions to suspend use of the AZ are clearly political in the sense that they are attempts to respond to and shape people's perceptions and behaviours, as has to be done, whether or not those perceptions have any basis in reality. It's not possible to simply ignore the fact that rumours and doubts are circulating.

Of course, knowing what strategy will work in such a febrile context as we live in now is almost impossible. Ignore the doubts, carry on using the vaccine and hope the concerns will fade? Or will they just continue to propagate, fuelled by a kind of "they're out of touch/not listening to our genuine fears" attitude? People don't like to be told they don't understand and are simply wrong. Or suspend them, do further testing, and come back with the reassurances people might be looking for. Or does that just lead to a "there's no smoke without fire, what are they not telling us" reaction? It's not an easy choice.

[Oldmanmatt]

The decisions to suspend use of the AZ are clearly political in the sense that they are attempts to respond to and shape people's perceptions and behaviours, as has to be done, whether or not those perceptions have any basis in reality. It's not possible to simply ignore the fact that rumours and doubts are circulating.

Of course, knowing what strategy will work in such a febrile context as we live in now is almost impossible. Ignore the doubts, carry on using the vaccine and hope the concerns will fade? Or will they just continue to propagate, fuelled by a kind of "they're out of touch/not listening to our genuine fears" attitude? People don't like to be told they don't understand and are simply wrong. Or suspend them, do further testing, and come back with the reassurances people might be looking for. Or does that just lead to a "there's no smoke without fire, what are they not telling us" reaction? It's not an easy choice.

Honestly, I suspect it’s more along the lines of seizing the opportunity and calling a suspension, that gives the governments in question some breathing space to catch up with supply issues.

To the governments, it doesn’t matter which vaccine they hand out, but across Europe, supply is an issue, for most forms. This is a perfect opportunity to shift blame from “failure to secure supplies” to “safety concerns” for the slow roll out.

[spidermonkey09]

The decisions to suspend use of the AZ are clearly political in the sense that they are attempts to respond to and shape people's perceptions and behaviours, as has to be done, whether or not those perceptions have any basis in reality. It's not possible to simply ignore the fact that rumours and doubts are circulating.

Of course, knowing what strategy will work in such a febrile context as we live in now is almost impossible. Ignore the doubts, carry on using the vaccine and hope the concerns will fade? Or will they just continue to propagate, fuelled by a kind of "they're out of touch/not listening to our genuine fears" attitude? People don't like to be told they don't understand and are simply wrong. Or suspend them, do further testing, and come back with the reassurances people might be looking for. Or does that just lead to a "there's no smoke without fire, what are they not telling us" reaction? It's not an easy choice.

This is all fair comment, but I can't help but feel that European leaders have boxed themselves into a corner here. They have gone from complaining AZ was shorting them on their jab supply, to Macron saying the AZ jab was 'quasi ineffective' on the elderly (totally wrong), to seizing a shipment of AZ jabs that was meant for Australia to use themselves, to now implying there is a risk associated with it. The messaging is absolutely shambolic and its frankly no wonder there is vaccine hesitancy around the AZ jab on the continent. They act like the decisions and pronouncements they make regarding the jab happen in a vacuum and aren't read by the public. Absolutely moronic.

It really annoys me as it has cut through beyond the borders of the countries involved. I've already reassured my mum when the Handelsblatt scare stories came out that the jab was fine. My grandparents are due to have their second jab in a few days. People will actively decide not to get the jab as a result of this nonsense.

[Footwork]

France sounds like a shit show right now.

My grandparents are out there at 84 and one has dementia. Neither have been jabbed.

Gran is calling the GP almost everyday to see when she can get her jab.

[andy popp]

The decisions to suspend use of the AZ are clearly political in the sense that they are attempts to respond to and shape people's perceptions and behaviours, as has to be done, whether or not those perceptions have any basis in reality. It's not possible to simply ignore the fact that rumours and doubts are circulating.

Of course, knowing what strategy will work in such a febrile context as we live in now is almost impossible. Ignore the doubts, carry on using the vaccine and hope the concerns will fade? Or will they just continue to propagate, fuelled by a kind of "they're out of touch/not listening to our genuine fears" attitude? People don't like to be told they don't understand and are simply wrong. Or suspend them, do further testing, and come back with the reassurances people might be looking for. Or does that just lead to a "there's no smoke without fire, what are they not telling us" reaction? It's not an easy choice.

This is all fair comment, but I can't help but feel that European leaders have boxed themselves into a corner here. They have gone from complaining AZ was shorting them on their jab supply, to Macron saying the AZ jab was 'quasi ineffective' on the elderly (totally wrong), to seizing a shipment of AZ jabs that was meant for Australia to use themselves, to now implying there is a risk associated with it. The messaging is absolutely shambolic and its frankly no wonder there is vaccine hesitancy around the AZ jab on the continent. They act like the decisions and pronouncements they make regarding the jab happen in a vacuum and aren't read by the public ... People will actively decide not to get the jab as a result of this nonsense.

Oh, absolutely, definitely not defending any prior decisions or actions.

[spidermonkey09]

France sounds like a shit show right now.

My grandparents are out there at 84 and one has dementia. Neither have been jabbed.

Gran is calling the GP almost everyday to see when she can get her jab.

Beyond belief really. In Germany vaccine centres are over stocked with AZ because people don't want it. They aren't accepting walk ins either despite having it just sat there. I haven't felt glad to live in the UK very often in the last year but this is definitely one of those times!

Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing.

[andy popp]

Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing.

I know that there was already significant vax hesitancy in France prior to the pandemic tied, I believe, to a series of medical-government scandals that had eroded trust, but hard to believe that can be the full explanation. In Germany I would imagine it ties to a strain of esoteric thinking, for want of a better word, that has long been a sub-stratum of the culture, a feature of both the left and the right. But, again, can that be all? QAnon is particularly strong there too.

I've not seen or read anything about vaccine hesitancy in Denmark (just did a quick search and didn't find anything) but would imagine it's pretty low. I've also only read about one anti-lockdown protest here, though there may have been small ones I've not heard about as I don't/can't read the Danish press.

One of the things that has most impressed me here has been the absolute clarity and consistency of all government messaging around the pandemic, including on vaccines. But here's an example of those spillover effects you were talking about. Once a post-AZ vaccine death had occured here (60 year old woman a few days ago) the government probably felt it had to be seen to be doing something given the actions Danes can clearly see other countries taking.

[Oldmanmatt]

Polly’s colleague, who has been desperately scared throughout the pandemic and desperate to get vaccinated; was called by her GP yesterday with her invite. She turned it down because it was the AZ on offer. She doesn’t know anything about the blood clotting etc, she just knows that she’s heard the side affects are “really bad” and she’s too scared.
As far as I know, this person doesn’t even watch TV news, this is a position she’s reached from comments on various “Spotted” Facebook groups.

[tomtom]

I had quite unpleasant* side effects from the AZ vaccine - but have been really careful not to share it (aside from on here) widely because it so clear any negative effect could be picked up on by those concerned.

*horrible sleepless night with headachy flu symptoms - lasted 18-20 hours.

I'm going to sound a bit tin foil hat here - but... AZ made at cost. £3.50 per dose. The others - from Pfizer to Modena, to J&J to the Russian and Chinese ones go from £15-35 a dose.... AZ is the market disruptor here - developing and maintaining a negative narrative about it serves to benefit all the other manufacturers - even if it leads to a reduced uptake of all vaccines...

I really can't fathom why Macron said what he did... 

[Oldmanmatt]

I had quite unpleasant* side effects from the AZ vaccine - but have been really careful not to share it (aside from on here) widely because it so clear any negative effect could be picked up on by those concerned.

*horrible sleepless night with headachy flu symptoms - lasted 18-20 hours.

I'm going to sound a bit tin foil hat here - but... AZ made at cost. £3.50 per dose. The others - from Pfizer to Modena, to J&J to the Russian and Chinese ones go from £15-35 a dose.... AZ is the market disruptor here - developing and maintaining a negative narrative about it serves to benefit all the other manufacturers - even if it leads to a reduced uptake of all vaccines...

I really can't fathom why Macron said what he did...

I’d be surprised if Brexit rancour didn’t play into the situation. Plus EU wide embarrassment about procurement and comparison of the speed to roll out here with that in  the block.
That’s very negative press that will fuel anti-EU feeling in large parts of Europe. So, make it look like the UK is cutting corners and the EU being cautious and caring, rather than bureaucratic and lumbering.

I don’t think “we” have grasped fully, yet, that across the channel, we now have 27 rivals. Many of whom have historically been our enemies and still don’t see us as allies or friends.

[spidermonkey09]

Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing.

I know that there was already significant vax hesitancy in France prior to the pandemic tied, I believe, to a series of medical-government scandals that had eroded trust, but hard to believe that can be the full explanation. In Germany I would imagine it ties to a strain of esoteric thinking, for want of a better word, that has long been a sub-stratum of the culture, a feature of both the left and the right. But, again, can that be all? QAnon is particularly strong there too.

I've not seen or read anything about vaccine hesitancy in Denmark (just did a quick search and didn't find anything) but would imagine it's pretty low. I've also only read about one anti-lockdown protest here, though there may have been small ones I've not heard about as I don't/can't read the Danish press.

One of the things that has most impressed me here has been the absolute clarity and consistency of all government messaging around the pandemic, including on vaccines. But here's an example of those spillover effects you were talking about. Once a post-AZ vaccine death had occured here (60 year old woman a few days ago) the government probably felt it had to be seen to be doing something given the actions Danes can clearly see other countries taking.

I wasn't aware there was such 'esoteric' thinking widespread in Germany. I know there was a subsection (biodynamic farming advocates, for example), but had always pinned antivax sentiment as a more French thing due to their rebellious culture - protests, strikes, contrarian thinking.

It will obviously be a mixture of lots of things but its hard to square my internal image of Germany- logical, well governed, not prone to hyperbole - with widespread qanon belief! Interesting stuff.

[duncan]

Homeopathy (Hahnemann was German) is very popular; Steiner (Austrian) is still a big influence.

QAnon? Well deep ecologists can mutate into eco-fascists who think the world would benefit from a few human pandemics and we should do nothing to get in their way.

[slab_happy]

I had quite unpleasant* side effects from the AZ vaccine - but have been really careful not to share it (aside from on here) widely because it so clear any negative effect could be picked up on by those concerned.

*horrible sleepless night with headachy flu symptoms - lasted 18-20 hours.

I've heard the counter-argument that it's important to be honest about the range of (actual) side-effects, because if you tell everyone LA LA LA IT'S FINE NO SIDE-EFFECTS then the first time someone hears that it made their friend's cousin's co-worker feel ill -- well, that's proof there's a cover-up, there are all these side-effects they're hiding, it probably gives you cancer and makes you autistic!

Whereas if you're honest with people and go "yeah, AZ might make you feel like you've got flu for a day, Moderna could make you feel like shit for several days after the second dose, it sucks but here's why it happens and there are no permanent side-effects", then they're more willing to trust that they're getting the full picture.

[User deactivated.]

Take it easy on your shoulder exercises following the jab people (perhaps this is common sense but apparently not for me). I had only a tiny bit of soreness following my jab, but was doing handstand presses yesterday as part of my regular training routine and noticed more soreness but nothing major, so carried on and completed all my sets, then I looked in the mirror and saw my lateral deltoid looking like a balloon and quite sore at this point! It's gone back down today, but i'll leave it another couple of days before doing more on it!

[andy popp]

its hard to square my internal image of Germany- logical, well governed, not prone to hyperbole - with widespread qanon belief! Interesting stuff.

Oh yeah! From the relatively innocuous - naturism, vegetarianism - through biodynamics, to deep ecology, and full blown eco-fascism. The far right has always remained strong and there are strains of Aryan/Nordic neo-paganism (think Wagner and Valhalla) and the occult. There are homegrown conspiracy theories too. One of the most prominent - the Reichsbürger movement - argues that the Federal German Republic is actually an illegitimate corporation imposed by the Allies after the war and that the pre-war Reich in fact continues to rule in secret from exile. A follower shot a policeman dead in 2016.

The anti-lockdown movement has been very strong in Germany throughout the pandemic, with large and frequent marches and protests, and along with ordinary citizens has strongly combined the far left and far right with a heavy dose of QAnon.

Edit: missed that Duncan had already said some of this.

Further edit: my bad, the Bielefeld conspiracy is satirical.

[SA Chris]

doing handstand presses

Yeah, I will probably lay off doing those for a while as a precaution. When I say doing I meant trying, and when I said for a while, I meant for the rest of my life. Unless I get bionic shoulders all of a sudden

[Loos3-tools]

I always thought Down and Out in Paris and London depicted the different cultural experiences of the 'at risk / undesirables' quite well.

[TobyD]

I've had the vaccine, it made me feel a bit crap for a few days, but hardly anything disastrous. I know quite a few people who've had absolutely no effects at all. It's remarkable how many people are getting all antsy about the astrazenica vaccine, but I' sure they all happily scarf ibuprofen if they feel like it, which certainly has some unpleasant side effects. All medication can have side effects, and the idea that people turn down an appointment because they think they should be entitled to a bloody menu is frankly despicable; its amazing we have any vaccines at all, and a year ago, I think most people would have bet we'd never even get one this quickly, or any as effective as they are.

[Loos3-tools]

Where do you guys stand on someone declining simply because they don't want it? This seems the controversial issue. The unvaccinated should be happy for everyone who wants it to have it, I would always support someone to be vaccinated especially if they are at risk or vulnerable and have done. I would never question somebody who simply said I don't want it.

[TobyD]

Where do you guys stand on someone declining simply because they don't want it? This seems the controversial issue. The unvaccinated should be happy for everyone who wants it to have it, I would always support someone to be vaccinated especially if they are at risk or vulnerable and have done. I would never question somebody who simply said I don't want it.

It's selfish not to have it. The more people who are vaccinated worldwide, the more effective it is for everyone.  If they'd actually seen anyone who has suffered badly with covid, they'd jump to have any vaccine as fast as possible, I'd guess. Covid properly messes up your life if you suffer badly.

[spidermonkey09]

Where do you guys stand on someone declining simply because they don't want it? This seems the controversial issue. The unvaccinated should be happy for everyone who wants it to have it, I would always support someone to be vaccinated especially if they are at risk or vulnerable and have done. I would never question somebody who simply said I don't want it.

The problem is that people who choose not to be vaccinated increase the risk for everyone else, so I think we all have a social responsibility/duty/whatever word you want to use to get the vaccine when offered. For me, personal choice becomes less sacrosanct in a public health emergency.

[SA Chris]

they think they should be entitled to a bloody menu

"you would like ze 2021 Pfizer, an excellent choice monsieur".

Anyone choosing not to have it increases the risks not only to others who haven't had the vaccine yet, but also someone who cannot have it for health reasons (allergies, weak immune system etc). Just appreciate we live in a society of greater good and get it FFS.

[abarro81]

Where do you guys stand on someone declining simply because they don't want it? This seems the controversial issue. The unvaccinated should be happy for everyone who wants it to have it, I would always support someone to be vaccinated especially if they are at risk or vulnerable and have done. I would never question somebody who simply said I don't want it.

I would view it as irresponsible, but wouldn't want it to be compulsory. I'd think people not taking it were being dicks, but no more so than the relatives I have who vote Tory, i.e. not so dickish that I'd stop being friends with them