[tomtom]

If it doesn’t do that effectively, including fast, it’s worthless.

Absolutely.

[spidermonkey09]

Interesting briefing today that cases and the R rate are no longer the key metrics for the easing of lockdown, instead focusing on hospitalisations. Quite a step change but probably logical as we get smaller numbers as they will be all over the place.

Greater weight on hospitalisations makes more sense as vaccine numbers grow. But the lag for hospitalisations is too big to drive policy if (when) we return to situation where things are getting worse again.

If you wait until hospitalisations have already started creeping up, it is already too late.

Hospitalisations driving policy only makes sense while everything is decreasing.

Yes, this makes sense. I am struggling to think of a better metric though given that cases are likely to be less useful when they are low. Am I missing something?

[sdm]

Up until now, it has been relatively easy. The rate of doubling/halving of cases (both tested and estimated) has told you all you need to know. When cases go up/down, hospitalisations and deaths inevitably follow.

With vaccines now starting to break that link, there needs to be a switch to a more nuanced approach.

Once nearly everyone is vaccinated, the important thing will be to monitor whether the vaccines are staying effective at preventing hospitalisation as new variants emerge. Total cases will only be important in terms of the increased risk of mutations and the risk to the unvaccinated. The important thing will be to monitor new variants as they emerge/are imported/spread and to act as necessary to prevent them becoming a problem.

I think we should be aiming to be in a position where we sequence every positive case. As a minimum, we need to sequence every hospitalisation and every positive from a returning traveller.

That way, you can monitor which variants are developing in to serious cases. Ideally, new mutations should be flagged as potential concerns before they develop any hospitalisations, rather than 5 or 6 weeks later when the handful of cases has already become a noticeable number of hospitalisations.

Whenever a worrying variant emerges, that is when we need an effective track and trace system plus targeted measures to shut them down before they spread.

So we need to identify each variant and monitor the prevalence and rate of doubling/halving of cases of each variant.

All this is only possible if we run with relatively low cases, which should be achievable over the summer if the desire is there.

If we run with too many cases to follow each variant, we'll be in a position of crossing our fingers and hoping that the vaccines remain effective. By the time we realise that they aren't, it would already be too late and we will be back to reacting once the situation is already out of hand.

[tomtom]

It’s “NHS Test, Track and Trace”

Yet it’s “ the Government vaccine roll-out”

[tomtom]

FYI - those with kids at school - link here to order Lateral flow kits to either pick up or be delivered.

https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus-rapid-lateral-flow-tests

FWIW having filled in the website forms etc.. I can’t see how they would know if you have kids or not.

[Oldmanmatt]

FYI - those with kids at school - link here to order Lateral flow kits to either pick up or be delivered.

https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus-rapid-lateral-flow-tests

FWIW having filled in the website forms etc.. I can’t see how they would know if you have kids or not.

Ours get their kits given to them in school, we have to do the test (they each get three tests/ lessons in school and are supposed to carry out the test themselves) we then have to confirm the results to the school by text, on Sunday evenings and (iirc) Thursday mornings. That’s two different schools.
They also had to do one a week prior, then two days prior to classroom return, followed by the third on the third day after return. Our first home tests will be Sunday.
Oh the joys of four teens...

As an aside, I got my invite for vaccine yesterday and will be jabbed on next Thursday. So we’re into 50+ here.

[Loos3-tools]

[User deactivated.]

Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab! 

[mrjonathanr]

Do you work in social care or special needs education ?

[ali k]

Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!

I heard there’d been a fuck up with the vaccine priority algorithm and some younger people were randomly being invited. I know a few people who’ve had it and can’t understand why.

[User deactivated.]

Do you work in social care or special needs education ?

Nope I'm an engineer and generally work on a pc at home.

[abarro81]

Also know people who've not been able to work out why they've been invited (but not me unfortunately!)

[Oldmanmatt]

Just ran this past my M-I-L, she’s a consultant Cardiologist.
“Gosh, what a frightful tit”.
Was her response.
F-I-L, who had been avidly following the Oxford model, with high hopes, is quite clear that the medical community is solidly behind the Imperial model now, with the caveat that the global response has pulled us back from worst case (he’s also saying we’d have to be incredibly unlucky to lose the edge with the vaccine/mutation game, at least for this “season”). He knows his shit and is well informed on the consensus amongst his colleagues.

Dan, do you remember the doctor who produced DJT’s letter attesting to his superhuman fitness etc? Harold Shipman? Bloke called Wakefield (used to be a doctor)? Good ‘ol Joe Mengele?

I don’t understand how you can take an individual doctors opinions, as gospel, where they differ enormously from the consensus amongst the majority. There are simply millions of medical doctors around the globe, who don’t agree with the few who are trotted out, for what seem to be political reasons, to make unsubstantiated claims, not supported by the evidence or specialists.
(Don’t get my inlaws started on people expounding opinions outside their specialities, that’ll ruin a dinner)

I’m a little surprised at your position, really. Lockdown and suspension of the economy,  is the socially responsible thing to do. Hard, costly, but effective. The numbers don’t lie.
The vast majority of powerful players, that push for early relaxation or no mandates, are rather shady people, who are losing money and don’t give a shit who dies or suffers as long as they can get back to selling us shit.
Many of them are in senior positions in our current government. You blather on about “them” controlling “us” for some slightly bizarre and nebulous gain, when “they” (or as close as reality can provide, to fit your model) are the ones who want everything opened up again so “we” start buying beer in their pubs again.
Funnily enough “they” don’t seem to be anything like as powerful as you seem to believe, or we wouldn’t be in lockdown now.
I mean, it’s almost certain, that there was a “conspiracy” to open up again over Xmas. That is to say, lots of people who make lots of money over the Xmas period, were probably being very nice to the right ministers and the PM, to persuade them that letting people go shopping and visiting relatives wouldn’t be so bad.
It was and the government then went into a panic and had to shut down way harder than if they hadn’t spaffed it all up the wall over Xmas.

I suppose the main difference is your belief in some powerful cabal or individual, ruining your life; where I see bog standard incompetence, petty cronyism and the standard “British Old School Tie Brigade” of dunces promoted to the limit of their incompetence because daddy was rich.
Capable of wreaking havoc, for sure, but more Mr Bean than Blofeld.

[Oldmanmatt]

Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!

Just take it, then ask why...

And let me know how the side affects pan out.

Inlaws were pretty ill for four to five days.

They both had a feeling they’d had Covid, without symptoms, but that was based on their reaction rather than anything else.

[tomtom]

I read that if you had no bmi entered in your records for some reason it would default to 31 (badly obese) and so get you a jab. Similar of your ethnicity wasn’t recorded it would assume the most vulnerable. Algorithm designed to be careful if in doubt. With close to 45% of the adult population now jabbed its less of an issue I expect.

MrsTt had her second jab this week. Both my parents last.

[webbo]

Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!

Just take it, then ask why...

And let me know how the side affects pan out.

Inlaws were pretty ill for four to five days.

They both had a feeling they’d had Covid, without symptoms, but that was based on their reaction rather than anything else.

I had mine 2 weeks ago and I didn’t even get a sore arm. The missus had hers yesterday had a few aches in the evening, so took some painkillers and has been since.

[andy popp]

Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!

I heard there’d been a fuck up with the vaccine priority algorithm and some younger people were randomly being invited. I know a few people who’ve had it and can’t understand why.

My son - 28, no underlying health conditions - is getting his today, following a call from his GP yesterday. No idea why, but you're not going to say no, are you.

[slab_happy]

Can't be bothered to watch the video because life is too short, but lemme guess, is it about how hydroxychloroquine is a magic cure which the establishment are suppressing?

Because it took me 30 seconds' Googling to find this:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/melbourne-doctors-under-review-for-promoting-discredited-covid-treatment

McCullough doesn't feature until halfway through, but it's worth the wait.

[battery]

Can't be bothered to watch the video because life is too short, but lemme guess, is it about how hydroxychloroquine is a magic cure which the establishment are suppressing?

Because it took me 30 seconds' Googling to find this:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/melbourne-doctors-under-review-for-promoting-discredited-covid-treatment

McCullough doesn't feature until halfway through, but it's worth the wait.

After 5 minutes of hyperbole and extraordinary self promotion I gave up watching. Cheers for the link, think I might give that to my students as an example of how to interrogate your sources!

[teestub]

It’s amazing what effect an authoritative sounding name still has on me, conservative think tanks seem to be good at this in this country too.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Physicians_and_Surgeons

  The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) is a conservative non-profit association founded in 1944. The group was reported to have about 5,000 members in 2014. The association has promoted a range of scientifically discredited hypotheses, including the belief that HIV does not cause AIDS, that “gay” male lifestyle increases the incidence of infectious disease, that there is a link between abortion and breast cancer, and that there is a causal relationship between vaccines and autism.   

[IanP]

It’s amazing what effect an authoritative sounding name still has on me, conservative think tanks seem to be good at this in this country too.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Physicians_and_Surgeons

  The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) is a conservative non-profit association founded in 1944. The group was reported to have about 5,000 members in 2014. The association has promoted a range of scientifically discredited hypotheses, including the belief that HIV does not cause AIDS, that “gay” male lifestyle increases the incidence of infectious disease, that there is a link between abortion and breast cancer, and that there is a causal relationship between vaccines and autism.   

A quick look at there website will show that that if anything that description is understating the righwing nuttery and conspiracy theory spreading.

Just one example of an article on it:

'COVID-19 Won the Presidential Election

By Marilyn M. Singleton, MD, JD

One is hard-pressed to deny that Joe Biden is a weak, corrupt, pathologically lying, creepy dirty old man who has lived off the government teat for 50 years. And he allegedly won the 2020 presidential election. Are Americans that ignorant? Or has Joseph Stalin’s political philosophy that has been simmering in America for years finally come to fruition? COVID was the not-so-secret agent.'

[slab_happy]

Just take it, then ask why...

And let me know how the side affects pan out.

Inlaws were pretty ill for four to five days.

They both had a feeling they’d had Covid, without symptoms, but that was based on their reaction rather than anything else.

I had mine 2 weeks ago and I didn’t even get a sore arm. The missus had hers yesterday had a few aches in the evening, so took some painkillers and has been since.

I've heard the full range from people I know, from "didn't even get a sore arm" through to "felt really ill for several days". The latter seems to be most likely after the second dose of one of the mRNA vaccines -- they're super-effective but the immune response can hit you hard.

Lots of people in the mid-range with "felt cruddy for one day". One friend got her first jab on Thurs, says she slept through most of Friday, now feels way better.

[sxrxg]

I had my first jab last night (AZ) and am feeling a bit ropey today. Banging headache, sore joints and prickly skin. Going to smash a couple of paracetamol and take it easy today.

At least I didn't have the reaction of my mum who passed out about 15-20 minutes after being jabbed and got taken by ambulance to the local hospital for observation. She didn't have any other problems after being discharged later the same day though.

[User deactivated.]

prickly skin

I thought I had no side effects, but come to think of it, I keep itching my chest!

Nothing much to report other than a very minor sore shoulder. I'll be climbing on the board today.

[Oldmanmatt]

I read that if you had no bmi entered in your records for some reason it would default to 31 (badly obese) and so get you a jab. Similar of your ethnicity wasn’t recorded it would assume the most vulnerable. Algorithm designed to be careful if in doubt. With close to 45% of the adult population now jabbed its less of an issue I expect.

MrsTt had her second jab this week. Both my parents last.

I just clicked something here.

If this is correct, it probably means there are way less morbidly obese people in the UK, than the NHS thought...

Or is it just the vaccine algorithm defaulting to 31?