[tomtom]

I remember - but still don't particularly see why it matters in that age group to be honest.

It might not to that age groups mortality - but some will still get it, some will get LC - and it keeps the virus in circulation...

Though thats possibly a moot point if borders are kept open and its still ripping/pottering around the rest of the world...

[spidermonkey09]

I remember - but still don't particularly see why it matters in that age group to be honest.

It might not to that age groups mortality - but some will still get it, some will get LC - and it keeps the virus in circulation...

Though thats possibly a moot point if borders are kept open and its still ripping/pottering around the rest of the world...

I think there are two points here, both of them interesting. The first is on uptake and how to keep it high. I think if vaccine passports become a thing, which they probably will, then vaccination rates will remain high even scepticism/ polls suggest there are naysayers. At the end of the day, people will want to go on holiday, especially the young. Suspect that will be the main driver of high uptake in all age groups.

The second is that regardless of what we do, the virus will in all likelihood become endemic across the world, so 5-10% of jab uptake here or there isn't really an issue. To be honest, this is the main flaw in the zero covid strategy as I see it. There is no point driving cases right down into the ground now there is a vaccine available, because nobody else will do that and unless you are willing to close borders indefinitely, as soon as you open them again your incidence will rise. NZ is already having this internal discussion about how to have a more flexible and nuanced border policy; in time I suspect their incidence will be the same as every other country. Thats not to say they didn't play a blinder; in the absence of a vaccine their strategy was 100% correct and I wish the UK had followed it, but it isn't sustainable now a a jab is available.

[Offwidth]

It seems to involve a lot of assumptions, notably:

a)100% take-up (or at least over 90%) of the vaccines in all age groups. This requires ignoring all surveys and data on some of the groups who've already been offered the vaccine -- we're already looking at only 80% for NHS staff and arounds two-thirds for social care staff.

and

b) steady and continuous increase in vaccination rates, with no logistical limits on either the ability to keep expanding the vaccine rollout programme or on vaccine supply.

Whereas we're currently looking at a drop in vaccine supply across the UK before we get back to current levels at the start of March:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56025767

I'm very hopeful we will start to see a rapid fall in Covid deaths and hospitalisations, but the article's into "perfectly spherical cow" territory if it's trying to make realistic predictions about what we might manage when.

I'd agree with most of that but remember that low NHS percentage is not a realistic number for vaccine refusal. I know for a fact some NHS organisations tried to clear large numbers of remaining staff not yet vaccinated over the weekend (that they should have dealt with much earlier), without due regard to short notice practicality. Also staff off-sick or self isolating can't have the vaccine nor can anyone within 28 days of covid illness. This 70% to 80% number being used publicly is old fashioned foot shooting.

[slab_happy]

Fair point -- thanks for the info.

[slab_happy]

Just saying the article seems to be based on the limited information we know at the moment - not what we are going to find out!

And another very big assumption is that all the vaccines will have (and continue to have) near-100% effectiveness against hospitalization and death from Covid, regardless of variants.

I believe at the moment state of info re: the AstraZeneca vaccine and the South African variant is that it has minimal effect when it comes to preventing mild and moderate Covid.

The most hopeful thing here is that we don't know if that means it also performs poorly when it comes to preventing severe Covid; it's possible it might still be some use. Or it might not! Right now we have no idea!

We are currently proving wildly lucky in that the RNA vaccines at least still seem to do very well at preventing hospitalization and death with the variants, even when they are much less effective at preventing symptomatic disease.

But that's us dodging a bullet, and the article is a lot like going "we've dodged this bullet, so we can infer that we will be able to dodge all bullets!"

Also I missed this gem:

This optimism assumes the UK’s borders will be adequately controlled and that the risk of vaccine-evading variants is effectively eliminated by doing so.

Because, as we all know, viruses can only mutate in foreign countries.

Believe it or not, I'm actually pretty optimistic about this whole thing right now. We should start seeing a drop-off in hospitalizations and deaths soon, and be able to start lifting restrictions in the summer. And in the longer term, we might well be able to wrangle this into something where maybe vulnerable people get booster shots every year and it's no bigger deal than flu. Maybe there'll be a "bad Covid winter" from time to time and we all get advised to wear masks on the bus for a few months.

Buit it seems pointless to stack up a set of "spherical cow" assumptions as if they were certainties and then go "It is hard, in other words, to see why restrictions of any significance would continue to be in place by mid-May."

And dangerous, given the Statesman's readership among the sort of Tories currently demanding set dates (the sooner the better) for all restrictions to be removed.

[slab_happy]

For anyone who fancies a quality science longread:

https://eu.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2021/01/26/moderna-covid-vaccine-science-fast/6555783002/

Deep dive into the development of the Moderna vaccine, all the way through to approval. Excellent explanation of the scientific background and why people were ready to move with an RNA vaccine so fast at this particular moment in time (and how RNA vaccines actually work).

xkcd also explains how RNA vaccines work: https://xkcd.com/2425/

[spidermonkey09]

And dangerous, given the Statesman's readership among the sort of Tories currently demanding set dates (the sooner the better) for all restrictions to be removed.

I actually don't disagree with much of your post, but this seems an odd interpretation. The NS is a centre left publication and the ERG/ CRG are on the right wing of the Tory party. Perhaps you mean the Spectator?

[sdm]

This optimism assumes the UK’s borders will be adequately controlled and that the risk of vaccine-evading variants is effectively eliminated by doing so.

Ignoring the probability of vaccine evading variants emerging in the UK, our red-list only quarantine system is fatally flawed.

The hotel quarantine system only applies to people who have been to a red-list country in the last 10 days. Arrivals from other countries who have not been to a red-list country still have the old isolation system but not the stricter quarantine.

I think I'm right in saying that there are currently no direct flights from any red-list countries to the UK. So anyone returning from a red-list country must do so via a connecting flight from a non-redlisted country. So they have sat on a plane for hours surrounded by people in a high transmission risk situation. None of those people will then go on to quarantine.

The quarantine system will reduce the number of import events of this variant but it won't stop them. It is guaranteed to take hold in our population.

Believe it or not, I'm actually pretty optimistic about this whole thing right now. We should start seeing a drop-off in hospitalizations and deaths soon, and be able to start lifting restrictions in the summer. And in the longer term, we might well be able to wrangle this into something where maybe vulnerable people get booster shots every year and it's no bigger deal than flu. Maybe there'll be a "bad Covid winter" from time to time and we all get advised to wear masks on the bus for a few months.

I'm optimistic about where we stand against our current dominant strains. I'm pessimistic about our ability to prevent new variants emerging in the UK and our ability to prevent importing new variants from elsewhere. I think there is a route from where we are now that would allow a relatively normal summer with a relatively low risk of a vaccine escaping variant becoming dominant in the UK before an effective booster becomes available. I'm not at all confident that we will achieve this.

[slab_happy]

I think I'm not -- I have the impression the NS sometimes leans into a "contrarian"/quasi-libertarian vibe. But I am not a regular reader and have no stats on their readership so I apologize if I'm maligning them!

[spidermonkey09]

I think I'm not -- I have the impression the NS sometimes leans into a "contrarian"/quasi-libertarian vibe. But I am not a regular reader and have no stats on their readership so I apologize if I'm maligning them!

Nah, thats definitely the Spectator! I have been exploiting a '12 weeks for £12' offer recently from the NS and have really enjoyed it - worth a look.

[Loos3-tools]

At last! Justification for sanctioning ‘chatty bastards’ as identified by the experts. Amen

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/20/talking-can-spread-covid-as-much-as-coughing-says-research?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral&fbclid=IwAR1t7Ojfl2ck2xy6HFtKbjj54C4O4ayIhJ4JYUASRdEdVuXQdJ_cOvsnLdo&__twitter_impression=true

[RobK]

Still some things in the vaccine rollout programme that need ironing out...

https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1361959447971643392

[Offwidth]

Latest on outdoor risks:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/how-the-beach-super-spreader-myth-can-inform-uks-future-covid-response

[Davo]

This just confirms why I think stoping people travelling to go outdoors or climb is nonsense.

[Anti]

Latest on outdoor risks:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/how-the-beach-super-spreader-myth-can-inform-uks-future-covid-response

Meanwhile in Wales were locked inside for another 3 weeks. Let's hope we get rid of these useless crooks in May.

And, well, replace them with some different useless crooks...

[abarro81]

Latest on outdoor risks:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/how-the-beach-super-spreader-myth-can-inform-uks-future-covid-response

Not really the latest on anything as far as I can tell. The problem with the "no cases linked to X" line if that AFIK we're not actually doing that much backward tracing hence why pubs, gyms, cinemas etc can all go on R4 and say "there's little evidence that we drive transmission"...

[Offwidth]

It's the latest news item on the subject. Those experts seem pretty confident about where spread is mainly occuring. No one is saying there is zero risk outdoors just that it appears to be very low. You can argue the same way in defence of socially distanced measures in pubs, gyms and cinemas.... that risk is probably a lot lower than some people portray it (to be clear, not that I think we are close to be able to do that yet). The virus spreads very effectively indoors with close contact and poor ventilation. Opening the outdoors for people to meet will likely reduce dangerous and illegal indoor meetings.

[slab_happy]

Looks like the app might actually be some use:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00451-y

[Tony]

The argument was never that the App was "useless". More that the money spent on the centralisation of contact tracing may have been more cost-effective spent supporting/expanding existing LA contact tracing teams.

There were also suggestions that the initial direction of the App's development was also poorly considered. (e.g. originally, deliberately, not based on the Apple/Google framework)

[mrjonathanr]

and uk gov insistence on data held centrally

[Tony]

The sharing of personal health data is a complicated area. Nether Gov, nor NHS, nor LAs cover themselves in glory.

Sometimes it has been unfortunate, sometimes it has been incompetent.

I would say that, on the whole, I doubt better data sharing would have made a great deal of difference.

[mrjonathanr]

I think you misunderstand me Tony. NHSX and the capturing of personal data involved personnel such as cummings and Ben Warner previously involved with Vote Leave, Cambridge Analytica and Palantir whom I would not trust with data.

[Tony]

I wouldn't get too excited by those stories.

[Johnny Brown]

I know a doctor who worked on the app and was on the radio etc to explain it. His response to 'big data' security concerns was to laugh at the ridiculousness of the idea and move on. I've known him to trust that it is genuinely not a concern, but I do think he was rather naive about just how low the level of public trust on the issue is.

[Loos3-tools]

Quoted from the roadmap

64. For these reasons, a significant proportion of the population could still be infected, either because they have not been vaccinated or because the vaccine is not effective for them. This is illustrated by Figure 7. This could mean that some measures to limit transmission are still needed after all adults have been offered a vaccine. These could include guidance such as “hands, face, space”, maintaining the Test, Trace and Isolate system and controls at the border (see chapter 4). The extent to which such measures will be required after all adults have been vaccinated is still unknown. As set out in chapter 3, the Government is exploring what measures may be required.