[Loos3-tools]

The definition which I was referring to I’ve pasted below. Also Chomsky has a good point re the media right? I love the bit about how it starts in kindergarten and is all about subordination.

A commoner, also known as the common man, commoners, the common people or the masses, is an ordinary person in a community or nation who does not have any significant social status, especially one who is a member of neither royalty, nobility, the clergy, nor any part of the aristocracy.

[Oldmanmatt]

The definition which I was referring to I’ve pasted below. Also Chomsky has a good point re the media right? I love the bit about how it starts in kindergarten and is all about subordination.

A commoner, also known as the common man, commoners, the common people or the masses, is an ordinary person in a community or nation who does not have any significant social status, especially one who is a member of neither royalty, nobility, the clergy, nor any part of the aristocracy.

Oh I see.

Like Bill Gates then.

I still think his point, presented in this context, sound a bit paranoid. As an aside, where do the Liberal Elite fit into that definition? Are they honorary Aristocracy? If so, I defo want to sign up, I likes me a bit of decadence.
I have worked for and with a couple or six titled “Aristocrats”.
Most we’re actually pretty cash strapped, under employed and powerless, despite all those old school connections etc. On the other hand, I once ran the refit on a yacht for a Russian Hooker, who made a fortune on her back and had a good number of important people willing to move mountains and fair sized economies to her whims.
Then there was Fanny (I kid you not) who was gifted the last yacht I built (Al Hannem when we sold it, she changed the name to “Barbie” and tried to get me to paint it pink, we talked her into a nice grey. 626 tonnes of pink might have been more than the world could take). She was a Greek TV presenter, but the yacht was bought for her as a present by a Turkish gentleman of no mean reputation (well, very mean actually). It was quite revealing how much foreign policy revolved around Fanny’s fanny.

None of them were Aristocratic as you envision it. Some were humble, some came from humble beginnings, yet were anything but humble. 

[Loos3-tools]

By liberal elite I mean this definition -

the group of people in a society who are considered as having a high level of education and liberal ideas

[Oldmanmatt]

By liberal elite I mean this definition -

the group of people in a society who are considered as having a high level of education and liberal ideas

What’s a “high level of education”?
Is this on a global scale?
If it is, isn’t that, like, 99.9% of the British population? Most of us have at least 10 years of formal education and that’s pretty high on the global chart thing-a-me-bob.
Or do you mean, what we refer to as “Higher Ed” in the UK? Is that restricted to STEM subjects though, or are the Humanities the issue? Both?

Oh, and “Liberal”?
What does that mean? Socially liberal? Fiscally? Neo? Classical? Aren’t there “Liberals” across the political spectrum?
You mean “people you don’t like” don’t you?
You mean “people who don’t agree with me, but are well educated, so must be programmed and therefore I can discount their views and opinions and never critically examine my own position”.
(Actually, I can see why you chose “Liberal Elite”, the full version’s a bit of a mouth full, isn’t it).

Edit:

Oh! Oh! What about vocationally trained people, who aren’t mindlessly bigoted and still vote for liberal policies and parties and occupy middle management postions, or even senior management? Can they be Elite too?

And you? Where do you fit in that hierarchy? Ye and Ye’s ultimate truths? 

[Loos3-tools]

I would be classed as liberal elite and therefore form part of the intended audience for the messages pushed by the Guardian and or if I was American the New York Times for example. 

[petejh]

''U.K. Covid19 Vaccinations - 1st doses up to 12/02/21

14,012,224

503,116 increase on yesterday

This is 93.4% of the government target, which is 15m by Monday

They need to vaccinate 329,259 people per day to hit this target''

https://twitter.com/SharePickers/status/1360270034904432640

[petejh]

Good visualisation of hospitalisations since last March. 80% of them were over-80 age.




https://twitter.com/SharePickers/status/1360267877681627149

[Oldmanmatt]

Good visualisation of hospitalisations since last March. 80% of them were over-80 age.




https://twitter.com/SharePickers/status/1360267877681627149

This is good. But it’s not vaccine driven, yet, it’s proof of lockdown effectiveness.
Irritatingly, opening up is likely to lag, though. Too much mutation risk and the threat of  wasting the vaccine progress. May. We might be fully open, if still distanced by May, if I had to guess.

[slab_happy]

Incidentally, turns out Chomsky's fine with lockdowns:

https://tamhunt.medium.com/noam-chomsky-on-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-government-responses-be8301359dbb

[Offwidth]

Good visualisation.....

I linked this Independent SAGE report a couple of weeks ago showing over 80s are only a small proportion of those in ICU (as they largely don't benefit from the invasive procedures). The statistic of 80% of hospitalisations being over 80 is just plain wrong. The relevant bit of this weekly report starts at 10 and a half minutes in and lasts about 3 minutes and it shows clearly why we have a while yet before hospital pressures will drop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKTHqyFfzFs&feature=youtu.be

[dr_botnik]

Irritatingly, opening up is likely to lag, though. Too much mutation risk and the threat of  wasting the vaccine progress. May. We might be fully open, if still distanced by May, if I had to guess.

I saw an article in the s*n saying Johnson wanted to open schools in a big "bang". Didn't actually read it but believe the headline implied relatively soon. So guess that's what downing st are currently briefing, being as how they're in bed with murd*ck

[Falling Down]

I would be classed as liberal elite and therefore form part of the intended audience for the messages pushed by the Guardian and or if I was American the New York Times for example.

So are you liberal elite or not? and if so how do you know?

[Loos3-tools]

Hi, yes I meet the criteria for liberal elite. Educated with liberal ideals and a reasonable job etc

[Ged]

I'm feeling pretty nervy about the fact that they seem to be implying ploughing on with the 8th March for schools. I say this as a teacher, who really would rather not catch covid, and a citizen, who would really rather not watch the whole thing spiral out of control again. Yes, lockdown appears to be working. But that includes schools being closed. Given the noise from sage advising schools to not open then, and the govs track record of ignoring such advice, I'm nervous.

1000 deaths per day to schools open in 3 weeks....

[Offwidth]

People in hospitals and deaths may have roughly halved between now and by the March 8th proposed school opening times. That's way too high for me for full opening and I think teachers have a right to be concerned for their health  If R goes much above 1 because of all the changes that the tory press and backbench tory CRG MPs are pushing hard for, we could be back to near first lockdown levels of infections pretty quickly. The virus just needs social interaction indoors between different households to spread, the Kent dominant variant has a higher R number overall and seems to spread more efficiently in the young than the variants last March.

[tomtom]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/13/world/covid-19-coronavirus

This seems to have passed the UK press by....

UK Kent variant may lead to 40-60% more hospitalisations (and increased deaths) compared to the original variant. nYT base this on a UK report....

[spidermonkey09]

As someone who is not a teacher and so has no skin in the game, from what I've read I feel like 8th March is a reasonable date at the moment. I think it might be better if they do it some sort of stages though, which might well be what ends up happening.

By offwidths criteria we would be waiting until some time in mid summer before opening anything if we are waiting for hospitalisations to drop to minimal levels. That is a pretty unacceptable societal cost for me, and that's from someone who agrees with the lock down policy.

[mrjonathanr]

8th March is a reasonable date at the moment.

Absolutely.

I think it might be better if they do it some sort of stages though

That is the issue.

[Oldmanmatt]

8th March is a reasonable date at the moment.

Absolutely.

I think it might be better if they do it some sort of stages though

That is the issue.

Years 11 and 13 only and possibly until Easter. My guess.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

Possibly of interest to anyone who signed up to participate in the Biobank studies.

On correlation between vit D3 and CV-19:

[tomtom]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/13/world/covid-19-coronavirus

This seems to have passed the UK press by....

UK Kent variant may lead to 40-60% more hospitalisations (and increased deaths) compared to the original variant. nYT base this on a UK report....

Here’s the report. Kent variant 30-70% worse for mortality...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/961042/S1095_NERVTAG_update_note_on_B.1.1.7_severity_20210211.pdf

[tomtom]

Possibly of interest to anyone who signed up to participate in the Biobank studies.

On correlation between vit D3 and CV-19:

On vit D - there’s a preprint out at the moment showing good results (Barcelona study inthink) that’s getting a lot of attention on my Twitter feed for being not very good.   Preprint is only a preprint...

[Ged]

As someone who is not a teacher and so has no skin in the game, from what I've read I feel like 8th March is a reasonable date at the moment. I think it might be better if they do it some sort of stages though, which might well be what ends up happening.

By offwidths criteria we would be waiting until some time in mid summer before opening anything if we are waiting for hospitalisations to drop to minimal levels. That is a pretty unacceptable societal cost for me, and that's from someone who agrees with the lock down policy.

As I understand it, during the November lockdown, when schools were open the Kent variant was not suppressed. I don't see how going back to that scenario in 3 weeks time can be anything other than dangerous.

It seems likely as othrts have said that y11 and y13 will be back. I feel pretty nervous about being shoved back into an enclosed space with between 15 and 32 young adults, with no ppe and no vaccine.

[spidermonkey09]

Totally get your reluctance, which suggests the govt need to improve their messaging (now there's a shock!)

Out of interest, what would your preferred route back be? Seems like at the moment now the most vulnerable have been jabbed the government is content to allow a certain level of virus prevalence in exchange for schools going back. Other societal unlocking will be v slow to allow this to happen. I have to say I don't have a huge problem with this approach as I am profoundly unconvinced by the "zero covid" strategy (which is actually nothing of the sort) preferred by Devi Sridhar et al. I was a big fan of this last summer but now we have a vaccine I don't think it will fly.

[Offwidth]

By offwidths criteria we would be waiting until some time in mid summer before opening anything if we are waiting for hospitalisations to drop to minimal levels. That is a pretty unacceptable societal cost for me, and that's from someone who agrees with the lock down policy.

I'm just repeating what the SAGE experts say (in a personal capacity) and other experts. None of them are proposing anywhere near as late as mid summer ...April to May is the usual estimate for wider opening, with some school years opening in March if the data looks good. Behind the estimate they are clear in the need to follow the data: we need to open bit by bit and watch for any sign of a rising R. Schools are much busier this lockdown than the first, so its unlikely to be a catastrophic expansion, if staged. If we followed the tory backbench CRG recommendations we would all be facing a high chance of a fourth lockdown (the NHS are already prepping for this according to the BBC today).

On the point of the new variant spreading  faster and with higher mortality it hasn't slowed the decline data so this lockdown compliance (where it matters most: indoors) must be better than in the first lockdown (or the research was wrong). The risk of this 'kicking-in' again is why we need to open cautiously.