[spidermonkey09]

We're at that stage of the run chase now where one bad/good over can make the chase a cakewalk or a nail biter...

Am I the only one who can't see the images on Petes posts?

[abarro81]

For some reason I can see them, then when I return to the thread they're somehow blocked out (true of all pics of Pete's on all threads recently)

[sdm]

I think whether it turns in to a cake walk or a catastrophe from here depends mostly on how we prevent worse variants from developing and how we prevent their import/spread as they develop.

If we run quite hot on cases due to opening up too much or too early, our ability to prevent, track and stop them will be much lower.

Browser issue? I can always see Pete's images fine on Chromium.

[ali k]

An average of 411,791 per day needed to hit the target of 15m by Feb 15th

Is it just me that can’t get excited about whether we hit this arbitrary date or not? Just like the testing targets that Hancock set earlier in the year (and fudged the numbers to hit) it feels like a ball thrown to the media and public to distract. We’re doing well on the vaccine front - shouldn’t that just be good enough without the need to add in these pointless races to an artificial ‘finishing line’?

[mrjonathanr]

The precise figures and dates mean nothing to me either. Overall progress is a different matter.

[Duma]

What they said. Also iirc the target was originally "the top 4 priority groups by mid Feb"
From TT's table (and I think I've seen this figure quoted elsewhere) that's 13.4M not 15M
And I'd call anything between the 10th and 20th "mid feb" (though given the review date is the 15th I can understand the focus on this date)
Main point is the vaccine program is going well, hopefully it can continue to accelerate.
I think this is the government site that these figures all come from:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

[Offwidth]

I don't much care if we miss the target: it's been a very good effort irrespective, especially at the front line of delivery. The Oxford research announcement today is the latest good news. Oxford scientists gave the world a head start on an affordable covid vaccine and even the government response was mostly good (when they got involved a couple of months later). Its not fault free.... what worries me now is vaccine nationalism (as the pandemic only really ends when the world is making good progress on vaccination, especially as mutations crop up) and making sure we don't lose focus on what this is about in the UK...saving lives and protecting the NHS. Once the over 70s and vulnerable are jabbed I think focus should improve on: anyone else in a higher risk group in a constrained residential situation; BAME communities in deprived areas; and older essential workers who cant always social distance..... as those groups are much more at risk of catching the virus and transmitting it than say middle class over 60s safely taking precautions at home.

The self coordinated start of the vaccine response at Oxford, as outlined in the guardian, deserves to be better known:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/23/coronavirus-scientists-developed-oxford-vaccine-at-breakneck-speed

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/29/we-had-to-go-it-alone-how-the-uk-got-ahead-in-the-covid-vaccine-race

On one of the problem areas: the real issues with vaccination in disadvantaged BAME communities, was predicted well before we had vaccines, yet little national preparation seems to have been done to help with this. Some local areas seem to have been using existing health and social networks with some success but overall coordination seems poor.

Changing focus is a tricky balance as we shouldn't be delaying using vaccine stocks or wasting vaccine based on political pressures around postcode lotteries (as some vaccine centres were instructed, on use-by date issues with Pfizer).

[tomtom]

At the moment vaccination uptake seems to be 99% supply limited - but it will hit a point (in a month? or mid March?) when it becomes more demand limited.

[SA Chris]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19045546.covid-scotland-vaccine-manufactured-livingston-site-west-lothian/

We all know it's actually diluted full sugar IRN-BRU, which cures everything, even hangovers.

[slab_happy]

I'm going to throw in another plug for the national vaccine trials registry, because (subject to my blood pressure behaving better than it did today) I might get to be in a trial and I'm feeling the science psyche right now:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/research/coronavirus-vaccine-research/

The one I might potentially be in is looking for folks who are not imminently going to be offered a vaccine in the national rollout (i.e. not in priority groups).

I asked what happens if and when people in the trial do get offered one of the existing vaccines -- apparently the procedure at that point is that they un-blind you, so if you've been on the placebo you can decide to take the vaccine you've been offered. So you don't get put at any disadvantage by taking part.

[Offwidth]

I signed up yesterday as they are looking for people in their 50s in Nottingham for mixed vaccine trials.  Lets wait and see.

[tomtom]

Great Twitter thread here from the FT showing how vaccination is making a real difference in Israel. Good thread - lots of detail - and seems thorough.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528?s=21

[slab_happy]

I signed up yesterday as they are looking for people in their 50s in Nottingham for mixed vaccine trials.  Lets wait and see.

*socially-distanced fist-bump*

That one sounds fascinating and incredibly valuable; we really need to know how mix-and-matching different vaccines for first and second dose works out. Might even end up being more effective, but we need to know.

Meanwhile, as of today, I'm in the Janssen/Johnson & Johnson ENSEMBLE 2 trial, yay!

They recently announced good results with a single dose of their vaccine; this is the overlapping trial testing a two-dose regime, and Northern General Hospital in Sheffield is one of the participating research centres.

Didn't get jabbed today (complications setting up the study app on my phone); going back next week for my first dose of vaccine or salt water.

[Ru]

Prof. Van Tam has said that there's no reason to think that the South African variant will become dominant in the UK as it doesn't have a distinct transmissibility advantage. If the current vaccines reduce transmission of the South African variant less than the other strains, how is that not an advantage? Really hope we're not looking at lockdown #4 over the summer whilst we wait for distribution of new vaccines. Also, what happened to the "6 week" turn-around to produce vaccines to new strains? That seems to have mutated into 9 months.

[Sidehaas]

Prof. Van Tam has said that there's no reason to think that the South African variant will become dominant in the UK as it doesn't have a distinct transmissibility advantage. If the current vaccines reduce transmission of the South African variant less than the other strains, how is that not an advantage? Really hope we're not looking at lockdown #4 over the summer whilst we wait for distribution of new vaccines. Also, what happened to the "6 week" turn-around to produce vaccines to new strains? That seems to have mutated into 9 months.

He was only talking about the next few months. If its natural transmissibility is no more than (or less than) the Kent variant, it will take much longer to become dominant than if it were naturally more transmissible as well. I expect it will still be quite a while before enough people in lower age groups are vaccinated that the SA variant starts to take over, assuming that the vaccine gives decent protection from transmission of the Kent variant but not the SA one. VanTam was obviously focusing most of what he said in the press conference on the next few months - he kept repeating that the people needed protection from the immediate threat.

[Ru]

Thanks, didn't see the broadcast and the news source I read didn't include the context of the next few months. Still can't help but feel that this is more of an issue than is currently being reported.

[Sidehaas]

Thanks, didn't see the broadcast and the news source I read didn't include the context of the next few months. Still can't help but feel that this is more of an issue than is currently being reported.

VanTam fairly clearly sees the longer term way forward from this autumn as regular (maybe annual?) booster shots for high risk groups to overcome changing variants of the disease. He made the direct analogy to how flu is managed at least twice.  For me the challenge with that will be keeping cases in the population not getting booster shots low enough that new variants don't pop up too fast. And managing international travel, obviously. I agree it seems a pretty big issue. But to be fair the press conference today was really all about reiterating the importance of people taking up the current vaccine despite all the negative headlines about variaNTS, it's probably not sensible to read too much in to long term strategy.

[tomtom]

I can see the logic that the SA variant can’t out compete the Kent Variant. But it’s sufficiently different to be much less effected by both the vaccine and previous infection/immunity. So surely it can (to a degree) grow on its own? I heard one person on the radio saying you could treat it as a different virus in that respect rather than a variant.

[Bonjoy]

Yes, it seems like semantics/spin for VT to make this point. The older variants eventually dwindle as the pool of non-immunes diminish, whilst the SA variant grows at whatever speed the reduced immunity of vaccinated/infected individuals allow. It is not direct competition, but one supplants the other as a result of selective pressure differentials nonetheless.
I expect it's a short term public messaging position designed to allay fears until the evidence becomes clearer.

[Ru]

VanTam fairly clearly sees the longer term way forward from this autumn as regular (maybe annual?) booster shots for high risk groups to overcome changing variants of the disease. He made the direct analogy to how flu is managed at least twice.  For me the challenge with that will be keeping cases in the population not getting booster shots low enough that new variants don't pop up too fast.

I've watched it now, it seems more like a "don't panic" statement rather than a realistic appraisal. The statement about the SA variant not becoming dominant still doesn't make sense where the variants aren't in competition. If all he meant was that we will be playing catch-up with new variants (and with a 6-9 month time lag between new variant and getting a vaccine), then that's not much better than the situation we found ourselves in at the start of the pandemic last year. It might be that the small degree of residual immunity from the current vaccines slows it down a bit, but overall I'm not reassured.

[Bonjoy]

I fear the same Ru. The vaccine-variant arms race and the response lag look like a recipe for prolonged pain. Hope I'm wrong.

[SA Chris]

Biotech shares anyone

[tomtom]

I fear the same Ru. The vaccine-variant arms race and the response lag look like a recipe for prolonged pain. Hope I'm wrong.

But - timing and summer is in our favour... If the SA variant impact can be managed/slowed until April/May then we might well be OK for getting updated jabs for Oct without too many problems...

[spidermonkey09]

I don't share the pessimism around this news. Think its very likely cases will be on the floor before anything is opened up and opened up slowly when they are. I think the SA variant is unlikely to become a major issue until the vaccine is basically ready as per TTs comment. Also, it seems highly probable, pending data, that the vaccine should still help prevent hospitalisations and deaths from the SA variant which is all we can really ask.

Obviously though, the risk remains that a new variant emerges which evades the vaccines entirely. There is nothing new here though, we always knew it was a risk. Now we have a vaccine it will be a pretty straightforward process to change it each time and turn it into a flu type situation where it causes x amount of deaths every year, but requires few societal measures other than (probably) masks in supermarkets etc.

[tommytwotone]

There was a vaccine expert on R5 the other night saying that there's a different / lighter touch regime for variants of vaccines / boosters.

Didn't get or understand the details, but effectively they're just changing the RNA(?) that links to the "spike" protein in line with the virus mutation.

Kinda makes sense - these vaccines were by definition totally new in concept, but if the mutation tweaks just sounds like a kind of software update type concept.