[petejh]

If you want people to comply with self isolation periods you need to cover their full income whilst they are at home. 
It's a very simple equation but the right wing mentality of this country would suggest that people would abuse this and we don't want people taking an extra 2 week holiday on full pay do we?
The opposition should be shouting this from the roof tops on infinite repeat, a large majority of our population are behind it.

It isn't very useful to discount the viewpoints of a massive portion of society just because they aren't left-wing. It isn't a 'very simple equation' when you actually take viewpoints different to your own into account.
 
What are the incentives?

1. Don't self-isolate, because you'll not be paid.
2. Self-isolate, because you'll be paid.
No brainer it would seem - pay people to self-isolate.


But there are lots of other incentives at play, including:

1. Behave carefully avoiding contacts wherever possible for fear of catching covid, because you won't be paid if you need to self-isolate.
2. Behave less carefully not avoiding contacts wherever possible, because if you catch covid you'll likely be OK and have two weeks paid holiday from work

Society doesn't comprise responsible socialists and public health experts unfortunately. It's full of people who to a greater or lesser degree operate according to (often perverse) incentives.
Look at people currently sending their children to school or travelling, or continuing to ask people to go into the office, or continuing to go indoor climbing up until the point the regs shut gyms, 'because the rules don't say we can't'. What incentives are these people operating by - greater good, or self-benefit?

[mrjonathanr]

What are the incentives?

1. Don't self-isolate, because you'll not be paid.
2. Self-isolate, because you'll be paid.
No brainer it would seem - pay people to self-isolate.


But there are lots of other incentives at play, including:

1. Behave carefully avoiding contacts wherever possible for fear of catching covid, because you won't be paid if you need to self-isolate.
2. Behave less carefully not avoiding contacts wherever possible, because if you catch covid you'll likely be OK and have two weeks paid holiday from work

I am good with the idea of perverse incentives, but sceptical that the numbers of people seeking to deliberately infect themselves is going to be a big problem.

The numbers of people who just can’t afford to be without their wage for a couple of weeks and so don’t get tested or isolate is a massive problem. There are just too many people in that predicament. It needs fixing.

Automatic furlough if you have to isolate with employers adding 20% might be one solution.

[tomtom]

Meanwhile apparently Johnson has been caught cycling (with his security entourage) 7 miles away from Downing street....

[petejh]

What are the incentives?

1. Don't self-isolate, because you'll not be paid.
2. Self-isolate, because you'll be paid.
No brainer it would seem - pay people to self-isolate.


But there are lots of other incentives at play, including:

1. Behave carefully avoiding contacts wherever possible for fear of catching covid, because you won't be paid if you need to self-isolate.
2. Behave less carefully not avoiding contacts wherever possible, because if you catch covid you'll likely be OK and have two weeks paid holiday from work

I am good with the idea of perverse incentives, but sceptical that the numbers of people seeking to deliberately infect themselves is going to be a big problem.

The numbers of people who just can’t afford to be without their wage for a couple of weeks and so don’t get tested or isolate is a massive problem. There are just too many people in that predicament. It needs fixing.

Automatic furlough if you have to isolate with employers adding 20% might be one solution.

Not deliberately infect - I don't know how you'd do that. Just them not being particularly concerned about the consequences to themselves of infection. But I also agree with the principle of supporting people off work through being asked by the government to either isolate or not to open their business. A balance of incentives at play. If work is a significant vector (and it must be) then why not shut more businesses and pay furlough? We all know there's loads of work going on that isn't crucial. But I think it's getting harder to win the hearts and minds the longer this goes on.

..and you have more faith in the 7,000 employees of the company I work for then I do!

[spidermonkey09]

If work is a significant vector (and it must be) then why not shut more businesses and pay furlough? We all know there's loads of work going on that isn't crucial. But I think it's getting harder to win the hearts and minds the longer this goes on.

I agree with these two points. But until they compel Sunak to unpadlock his wallet workplaces will continue taking the piss. My office is still open which is definitely not necessary, for example. I do think compliance has reached something of a ceiling but its very localised depending on what people are used to. Here in Leicester its been Tier 3 or equivalent for so long I think people are basically carrying on as they were before as they are s used to it. In London, which has gone from Tier 2 (which sounds like Eden to me!) to 4 in the space of days, you seem to have a mixture of people scared shitless (correctly) and those chafing against the new restrictions having got used to the old norms (workplaces).

In better news, the vaccine rollout seems to going ok, touch wood. 2m have been jabbed so far and we will get daily updates from today. If we are to get anywhere close to the target the 'ramping up' (remember that buzzword being used for tests back in April?!) will have to get going this week, but the early signs are promising. This guy is a very good follow for those on twitter, has been on the money with a lot of his predictions in the last year and seems optimistic, so I'm clinging that liferaft!

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1348657928350400517

[mrjonathanr]

I don’t know your business Pete but I worked on the ropes for 7 years, so may have an inkling..

Anonymising to protect reputations, this is a conversation I had years ago. Let’s call the company ‘Tubitech’.
Me : hi
Mate: You’ll never guess what ‘Bill’ just said to me.
Me: Oh?
Mate: He said the insurance pays out £5,000 for ´loss of limb’ and asked me if his little finger was a ‘limb’.
Me: Why?
Mate (quoting ‘Bill’): ´.... because if it is, it’s coming off.´

[IanP]

On the anecdotal front re vaccination progress the wife (NHS, admin rather than frontline) got vaccinated Sunday, dad (81) is booked in for Friday.  Know a number of other NHS people who have had vaccine and a few other over 80s - feels like things are moving.

[sdm]

If work is a significant vector (and it must be) then why not shut more businesses and pay furlough? We all know there's loads of work going on that isn't crucial.

Another big issue is workplaces requiring/pressuring employees to go in to work for jobs that can easily be done from home.

And pressure to not take sick leave, not get tested, not isolate, hide covid test results from colleagues, not pass on colleague details to track and trace etc etc.

Approximately 50% of my close circle are having to go in to work some or all of the time for jobs that can be done effectively from home.

All of them have workplaces that claim to be "covid secure" which generally means a risk assessment was completed and a couple of token measures were implemented.

This talk about stricter travel and outdoor exercise restrictions is all a bit pointless if the workplace abuse is allowed to continue.

[Bonjoy]

It's worse than pointless. It crushes everyone's spirits for very little benefit, whilst giving the impression something useful is being done, hence reducing the pressure to do something actually meaningful. Something meaningful like have an Ofsted style Covid inspectorate appraising workplace control measures.

[tomtom]

I’ll guess that no employers have yet been fined by the HSE for covid non compliance? (Aside from local councils shutting shops where it’s obvious... that’s happened in a couple of places)

[danm]

It's really annoying to hear when you know your own employer has gone to great lengths to support home working and make things as safe as possible for those who do need to go into the office. I really can't fault "the firm" on anything.

I nearly blew up a few days ago when I went into a wine merchant to pick up my order which was pre-paid so I could just mask up, sanitise my hands and go in and grab the box. In the few minutes it took the assistant to get my order, I had a maskless couple come in and stand right next to me talking away. This pair of arseholes were well dressed and obviously fairly loaded, no surprise to see them get into a 4x4 cuntmobile and drive off afterwards.

[petejh]

I don’t know your business Pete but I worked on the ropes for 7 years, so may have an inkling..

Anonymising to protect reputations, this is a conversation I had years ago. Let’s call the company ‘Tubitech’.
Me : hi
Mate: You’ll never guess what ‘Bill’ just said to me.
Me: Oh?
Mate: He said the insurance pays out £5,000 for ´loss of limb’ and asked me if his little finger was a ‘limb’.
Me: Why?
Mate (quoting ‘Bill’): ´.... because if it is, it’s coming off.´

Ha!

Large industrial group doing everything from cleaning to specialist engineering and design. I manage dopes.

[chris j]

Meanwhile apparently Johnson has been caught cycling (with his security entourage) 7 miles away from Downing street....

That would be local by the definition of most cyclists out in the spring lockdown, have a little charity!

[mrjonathanr]

Personally, I see little wrong with going for a cycle that distance away. I am sure Johnson agrees.

I do see quite a lot wrong with pontificating about the rightfulness of people breaking the rules, like Patel, when the top of government does things which the police would prosecute if they were being consistent in their reading of the rules.

[tomtom]

If the rules were more strictly defined - even if unfair/a bit daft it would be much easier to enforce and for people to obey (not to interpret). You could then give the police the steer to go easy on those bending the rules or not. Eg no more than 5km from your house etc...

[tomtom]

Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort? I appreciate they may well not have fridges/freezers overflowing with the vaccine to give out at the moment, but the pictures of the 7 vaccination centers are somewhat - er meh? As in a que of people outside and inside a few chairs and 5-10 makeshift cubicles... These 7 can apparently do 1000 a day when up to speed - so thats 7 x 1000 x 30 = 210 000 a month... (if they operate 7 days a week).

I’m more impressed now having read more about it. The Etihad vacc centre can do 2000 a day now going up to 8000. C.50k a week. That’s more like it 👍

Our GP is also one of the 7 GP Centres in Manchester doing the vaccinating. Good.

[Oldmanmatt]

I feel the need to highlight the more amusing “stuff” today.

Avery English Covid problem:

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2021/01/11/very-british-tale-of-a-doctor-his-outdoor-shower-and-unfortunate-cat-wildly-viral/?fbclid=IwAR20f79IKzHxIyMSzNYPINnvaTvC0gWCxYtLF1q3WXlMDCx4eEkI9f3O710

[galpinos]

On the anecdotal front re vaccination progress the wife (NHS, admin rather than frontline) got vaccinated Sunday, dad (81) is booked in for Friday.  Know a number of other NHS people who have had vaccine and a few other over 80s - feels like things are moving.

Yep, wife's had her first jab (Doctor) and my Mum and her friends (mid 70s) are getting contacted and their jabs being booked. It does feel like "it's happening".....

[galpinos]

Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort? I appreciate they may well not have fridges/freezers overflowing with the vaccine to give out at the moment, but the pictures of the 7 vaccination centers are somewhat - er meh? As in a que of people outside and inside a few chairs and 5-10 makeshift cubicles... These 7 can apparently do 1000 a day when up to speed - so thats 7 x 1000 x 30 = 210 000 a month... (if they operate 7 days a week).

I’m more impressed now having read more about it. The Etihad vacc centre can do 2000 a day now going up to 8000. C.50k a week. That’s more like it 👍

Our GP is also one of the 7 GP Centres in Manchester doing the vaccinating. Good.

Yep, sounds good. My local tennis club has teamed up with a local pharmacy and turned into a local vaccination centre.

[petejh]

As far as I can calculate - c.2% of UK population covered in c. 2 weeks. So at that rate, only 50 more weeks to go!

Surely more like 100 weeks, given that everyone eventually will receive two doses?

A more positive take on that is, given 80% of deaths and critical illness occurs in the most vulnerable 20% of population, that means it could be 8 weeks or less for vaccines to give protection for the majority of that 80%.

Over 3% of population vaccinated being reported today and the pace is likely to accelerate.

[Duma]

On the anecdotal front re vaccination progress the wife (NHS, admin rather than frontline) got vaccinated Sunday, dad (81) is booked in for Friday.  Know a number of other NHS people who have had vaccine and a few other over 80s - feels like things are moving.

Yep, wife's had her first jab (Doctor) and my Mum and her friends (mid 70s) are getting contacted and their jabs being booked. It does feel like "it's happening".....

[anecdote]

my 80 yo neighbour has had both his jabs

[/anecdote]

Also agree with pete - if the gov get anywhere near the target by mid feb, plus that study that estimated 12.4M already had it, then we'll be looking in pretty good shape by then.

[spidermonkey09]

Also agree with pete - if the gov get anywhere near the target by mid feb, plus that study that estimated 12.4M already had it, then we'll be looking in pretty good shape by then.

The interesting question is what this will mean for restrictions. I understand a lot of people on ventilators in hospital currently are in the 50-70 age bracket, so wont be covered by the initial wave of vaccinations. Although the first set of jabs *should* have an effect on deaths, they may not have as big an effect on hospital admissions and bed capacity as we hope. This might mean waiting for the vaccination of the 50-70 group to be complete as well, which seems to be slated for the end of April, before loosening things. I hope I am wrong on that score!

[Oldmanmatt]

The Times has taken it’s analysis a step further from the link I posted earlier.
Again, paywalled, sorry, but also the headline and first paragraph contain the key points:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-wave-of-covid-better-for-under-60s-but-worse-for-women-bsrs96qwx?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0paVFFD2RCjnAd3rCeBNiRn5J2ReO2BV1G5gtikM5sGnakltmhqVzCcBU#Echobox=1610436202

[Bonjoy]

As far as I can calculate - c.2% of UK population covered in c. 2 weeks. So at that rate, only 50 more weeks to go!

Surely more like 100 weeks, given that everyone eventually will receive two doses?

A more positive take on that is, given 80% of deaths and critical illness occurs in the most vulnerable 20% of population, that means it could be 8 weeks or less for vaccines to give protection for the majority of that 80%.

Over 3% of population vaccinated being reported today and the pace is likely to accelerate.

To be clear, I don't think for a minute the vaccination will take anything like 100 weeks! I was just pointing out that I thought TTT had missed the second dose out of his fag packet calc.

[Snoops]

This is a really interesting comment from Peter Doshi, Associate Editor of the British Medical Journal. From a scientific evidence approach... the data isn't clear. If those results were in my thesis I'd be castigated.
Just to say, this isn't an anti-vac issue (I've already had this vaccine), just that the 'efficacy' figure of 95% seems unsupported at best.



https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/