[Snoops]

To put the effect of the previous  low tier down south  vs high tier up here in a binary context_
Sheffield as of this morning is reducing elective operating and increasing ICU capacity, but only as we are taking even more cases from London now. There will imminently be more southerners than locals in.

[tomtom]

Row back on Boris mid Feb vaccination target. Vacc minister today saying vaccination invitations will be sent to all those in the groups specified by mid feb.

[Wil]

Maybe I'm being really naive, but I really don't understand why BJ set himself up to fail on vaccines. The UK was actually doing a reasonably good job of it (obviously faster would be better) and he set a target that was clearly not going to be reached, with no roadmap. If we've vaccinated half of those people by mid February that's not bad, but instead he's going to fail at an arbitrary goal that wasn't necessary. What was the point?

[tomtom]

Maybe I'm being really naive, but I really don't understand why BJ set himself up to fail on vaccines. The UK was actually doing a reasonably good job of it (obviously faster would be better) and he set a target that was clearly not going to be reached, with no roadmap. If we've vaccinated half of those people by mid February that's not bad, but instead he's going to fail at an arbitrary goal that wasn't necessary. What was the point?

Quite. I'd guess its because its a positive soundbite for people to focus on. And he wants to be loved....

[Paul B]

House moving still seems to be legal.

My folks are due to move in with us on Saturday (as their new build isn't ready yet). I'm struggling to find anything that gives clear advice on self isolation or anything ahead of them doing so. Has anyone seen anything?

[Oldmanmatt]

Maybe I'm being really naive, but I really don't understand why BJ set himself up to fail on vaccines. The UK was actually doing a reasonably good job of it (obviously faster would be better) and he set a target that was clearly not going to be reached, with no roadmap. If we've vaccinated half of those people by mid February that's not bad, but instead he's going to fail at an arbitrary goal that wasn't necessary. What was the point?

Quite. I'd guess its because its a positive soundbite for people to focus on. And he wants to be loved....

Haven’t you ever had one of those bosses, that you sit with for an hour before the big presentation to the board? The one where you carefully explain the project timetable, lead times on equipment, six months of planning and detailed job planning down to the half man hour, with the clear statement that if everything goes more smoothly than you can possibly hope, you need 32 weeks to handover?
Then the instant the wanker stands up to talk, he promises to be done in six months at a quarter of the budget you just laid out and you sit there turning blue as you choke yourself, deliberately, with your id lanyard?

[tomtom]

Normally that type of boss behavior generates enough rope for the boss to eventually tangle themselves up in.... Its taking a while for that to happen to Boris but its all mounting up.... The Elder Statesmen of the Tory Party will be logging these down to wheel out when they want rid of him sharpish.

That is of little comfort at the moment.

So - some lockdown bingo. I recon - in the next round of measures (by the end of this week?) we'll have:

(a) Facemasks to be worn at all times outside (or a strong increase in facemask restrictions)
(b) Places of worship to be closed
(c) Tightening of what is considered an essential shop to stay open

Recon we're a way off closing manufacturing and construction but you never know...

[tommytwotone]

I think they'll close nurseries next.

[SA Chris]

I predict further travel restrictions. You know because the general public are just following the actual words used in the restrictions, not the "spirit" of them.

[Bonjoy]

I predict nursery closures, a tightening of keyworker criteria for school attendance, and some rule tightening on travel/exercise.

[mrjonathanr]

I predict a riot.

(Sorry, but Ricky Wilson could make better decisions than this).

[tomtom]

There seems to be a subtle shift in the messaging about outdoor risk (I'm not trying to open the climbing outdoors can of worms any more etc..)... esp WRT ques outside shops and 'market stall environments'....

https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1348569202404298752?s=20

Given that leaks and shifts in messaging tend to herald changes in policy etc...

[Stu Littlefair]

Tighter restrictions are all well and good, but compliance with the current restrictions is actually pretty high, despite all the stories you hear about house parties and bad spotting at burbage. Where compliance is still really low is the numbers of people self isolating.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/

Dealing with this would give much bigger results than increases on the current restrictions. I’m exasperated that more isn’t been done to tackle this, but I guess it’s because it needs the government to put it’s hands in Rishi’s pockets...

[tommytwotone]

...a tightening of keyworker criteria for school attendance...

This is definitely needed - anecdotally (my daughter's primary and the partner's secondary she teaches at) - load more kids in school.

This needs a lift from non-keyworker employers too IMO (thinking Will's post from a week or so ago), so that non-keyworker parents have the capacity / flexibility to take care of home life alongside a job.

[tomtom]

Tighter restrictions are all well and good, but compliance with the current restrictions is actually pretty high, despite all the stories you hear about house parties and bad spotting at burbage. Where compliance is still really low is the numbers of people self isolating.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/

Dealing with this would give much bigger results than increases on the current restrictions. I’m exasperated that more isn’t been done to tackle this, but I guess it’s because it needs the government to put it’s hands in Rishi’s pockets...

Yes - and this is firmly in TTI remit. It has also slipped under the radar that the way TTI is now assessed has been changed...

Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort? I appreciate they may well not have fridges/freezers overflowing with the vaccine to give out at the moment, but the pictures of the 7 vaccination centers are somewhat - er meh? As in a que of people outside and inside a few chairs and 5-10 makeshift cubicles... These 7 can apparently do 1000 a day when up to speed - so thats 7 x 1000 x 30 = 210 000 a month... (if they operate 7 days a week).

[SA Chris]

...a tightening of keyworker criteria for school attendance...

This is definitely needed - anecdotally (my daughter's primary and the partner's secondary she teaches at) - load more kids in school.

This needs a lift from non-keyworker employers too IMO (thinking Will's post from a week or so ago), so that non-keyworker parents have the capacity / flexibility to take care of home life alongside a job.

Apparently a massive increase in people claiming to be key workers up here.

[sdm]

...a tightening of keyworker criteria for school attendance...

This is definitely needed - anecdotally (my daughter's primary and the partner's secondary she teaches at) - load more kids in school.

This needs a lift from non-keyworker employers too IMO (thinking Will's post from a week or so ago), so that non-keyworker parents have the capacity / flexibility to take care of home life alongside a job.

Apparently a massive increase in people claiming to be key workers up here.

Some numbers from teachers I know:

Derbyshire school had 4% attendance during lockdown 1. It is now up to more than 50%.

Milton Keynes (where cases are now very high) school went from 2% to 60%.

[Johnny Brown]

Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort?

I'm still waiting for Operation Moonshot to take off.

[tomtom]

Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort?

I'm still waiting for Operation Moonshot to take off.

I think a large part of it is in cardboard boxes at schools waiting to be used...

[tommytwotone]

As far as I can calculate - c.2% of UK population covered in c. 2 weeks. So at that rate, only 50 more weeks to go!

[petejh]

Tighter restrictions are all well and good, but compliance with the current restrictions is actually pretty high, despite all the stories you hear about house parties and bad spotting at burbage. Where compliance is still really low is the numbers of people self isolating.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/

Dealing with this would give much bigger results than increases on the current restrictions. I’m exasperated that more isn’t been done to tackle this, but I guess it’s because it needs the government to put it’s hands in Rishi’s pockets...

Yes - and this is firmly in TTI remit. It has also slipped under the radar that the way TTI is now assessed has been changed...

Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort? I appreciate they may well not have fridges/freezers overflowing with the vaccine to give out at the moment, but the pictures of the 7 vaccination centers are somewhat - er meh? As in a que of people outside and inside a few chairs and 5-10 makeshift cubicles... These 7 can apparently do 1000 a day when up to speed - so thats 7 x 1000 x 30 = 210 000 a month... (if they operate 7 days a week).

How many vaccinations do you estimate they'll have done by the end of the second week in February?

[SA Chris]

My mum down in Dawlish got her first jab, she's 81 next month. A slight lightening of worries, now hopefully the rest of the "at risk" members of the family will get theirs soon.

[tomtom]

Good question. The aim is 15 million right?

(I know I'm moaning - but I really f*cking hope they totally smash their target..)

[BrutusTheBear]

If you want people to comply with self isolation periods you need to cover their full income whilst they are at home. 
It's a very simple equation but the right wing mentality of this country would suggest that people would abuse this and we don't want people taking an extra 2 week holiday on full pay do we?
The opposition should be shouting this from the roof tops on infinite repeat, a large majority of our population are behind it.

[Bonjoy]

As far as I can calculate - c.2% of UK population covered in c. 2 weeks. So at that rate, only 50 more weeks to go!

Surely more like 100 weeks, given that everyone eventually will receive two doses?