[mrjonathanr]

As far as I understand, UK National Screening Committee has been left out of the process of screening LFTs and reviewing their efficacy. We can only imagine why, but the possibility that their advice would contradict the programme’s manner of implementation or the government statements about its success must be high.

As you say Sidehaas, every asymptomatic (true) positive is a win, so long as the person identified has sufficient trust in its accuracy to comply, of course.

Other questions remain though. How much public trust in the results and compliance is there? To what extent are people emboldened by false negatives and more likely to infect others as a result? Without a proper assessment we have no idea if this programme is counterintuitively causing more harm than good, if it is a benefit, and what value for money it offers (ie are there other ways of spending these sums that would better impact the pandemic?).

[abarro81]

So, top 4 priority groups supposed to have 1st jab by mid Feb. Anyone seen a list showing how many people are in each group?

[abarro81]

 :sorry:Answered by own Q in a quick Google... Just under 14m apparently

[Wil]

Strange that they seem to be deliberately avoiding putting a number on it. (Maybe my impression is wrong?)

14m is a big ask, I don't have much faith that we'll make it by mid Feb, but I hope to be proved wrong.

[tomtom]

I’m surprised it’s not being outsourced via pharmacies like the flu jab is. Mine (I’m over 50 now) was - simple 4 field online form - chemist checked via a ref number and did the jab. 2 min total. Expect the whole ‘wait 15 min thing’ doesn’t help that though.

That said - given anaphylaxic reaction might effect 1 in 10000 or higher - surely that’s actually less risky (in terms of fatalities) than not giving the booster dose within 3-4 weeks as recommended....

I dunno. The way we’re counting on it to get out of this mess I’m amazed there’s not more effort going into it...

[sdm]

My understanding is that the current limit on vaccinations isn't the supply of the vaccines, or the number of the number of people available to perform the vaccinations, it's all the logistics in between. So utilising pharmacies wouldn't be very beneficial at the moment.

If we can maintain sufficient supply, and can rollout in large enough numbers, I expect pharmacies will be called on later on. By that time, we are likely to have much more data on who is most at risk of reactions so could send low risk people to pharmacies while higher risk people get theirs in hospitals.

[tomtom]

:sorry:Answered by own Q in a quick Google... Just under 14m apparently

A handy table...

[spidermonkey09]

Johnson's timetable requires an acceleration from 0.3m jabs per week to 1.9m. This seems...unlikely, to put it diplomatically, especially given the government's form, but god knows I'd love to be wrong.

Gove this morning already rowing back on the mid Feb timetable, suggesting 'some but not all' restrictions could be lifted in March.

[tomtom]

Johnson's timetable requires an acceleration from 0.3m jabs per week to 1.9m. This seems...unlikely, to put it diplomatically, especially given the government's form, but god knows I'd love to be wrong.

Gove this morning already rowing back on the mid Feb timetable, suggesting 'some but not all' restrictions could be lifted in March.

There are (I think) two issues at the heart of this new lockdown...

1. The cases going to hospital from now and for the next 2-3 weeks are already 'baked in' (as the stand in Mayor of Liverpool said today). They are going to happen no matter what changes are made to lockdowns or restrictions. So we won't know how bad things actually are for a couple of weeks. London hospitals have had big increases but came from having relatively few existing covid hospitalisations. The hospitals in the NW (and other places) still have patients in them from the November surge/peak - so whilst not (quite) full at the moment could be in a worse position than the London ones in a couple of weeks.

2. We don't know what will control the new strain effectively. The Nov lockdown didn't seem to dent it in Kent/Essex - and we won't know if our now stricter measures are sufficient for a couple of weeks either. I feel sympathy for the government here - whilst they have been slow/reactionary - how to deal effectively with the new strain means we're back to pissing in the wind figuring out what to do and what works best - which was our state in late March.
The vaccine will help of course - but when the impact is felt is unknown - and depends on the roll out speed etc..

So no-one really knows how bad things are going to be (or not,..) for the next two weeks at least...

[Duma]

good table TT, cheers.

from that it appears two thirds of deaths are from ~ 3.5M people, that number should be vaccinated in a few weeks.

[tomtom]

good table TT, cheers.

from that it appears two thirds of deaths are from ~ 3.5M people, that number should be vaccinated in a few weeks.

Yes - probably about half way there by now. Good news.

[Oldmanmatt]

It’s not too hard to form a rough outline of “ how bad”, though is it? The Nov surge resulted in >900 deaths per day by the end of Dec:


It’s pretty clear, that even allowing for increased testing, we’ve exceeded the Nov surge by a factor of 3(ish), so it doesn’t seem unreasonable to be expecting upto 3k deaths per day, by end Jan, already “baked in”. Of course, some antibody treatments are coming on line as we speak etc, but, hard to imagine that will be available in sufficient quantities to even halve the death rate, so best case >1.5k/day by end Jan.



I fucking hope I’m way off base, but I won’t be surprised if we have a ~3k death day for each of the 50k new case days we have had/are having right now.

[sdm]

2. We don't know what will control the new strain effectively. The Nov lockdown didn't seem to dent it in Kent/Essex - and we won't know if our now stricter measures are sufficient for a couple of weeks either.

It's early days, and I'll feel a lot happier if the trend continues for a bit longer, but we are starting to see the first drops in younger age groups in London which are hopefully the first signs that Tier 4 was effective at getting the new strain under control (noting that schools have been closed and many people have been off work for a couple of weeks).

I feel sympathy for the government here - whilst they have been slow/reactionary - how to deal effectively with the new strain means we're back to pissing in the wind figuring out what to do and what works best - which was our state in late March.

I don't have any sympathy for them. While we are back at the figuring out stage, it was clear to see the direction that things were moving and the timing of the vaccine made the choice a no brainer. We should have gone hard and early, instead of delaying. It is the exact same mistakes that they have been making since the beginning. They wait until things reach breaking point before they act.

Why did it take until December 19th to react to a trend which was visible by the end of November? Should have announced the current lockdown before Christmas to allow teachers and parents to prepare for remote learning and childcare, rather than giving them 12 hours notice.

[Bonjoy]

I feel sympathy for the government here - whilst they have been slow/reactionary - how to deal effectively with the new strain means we're back to pissing in the wind figuring out what to do and what works best - which was our state in late March.

I don't share your sympathy. They had hard decisions to make, but sending the kids back for a day to add a link onto the Christmas transmission chain was beyond moronic.

[Oldmanmatt]

I hate the idea of defending the government.

But, the sheer stupidity and ability to deny reality, of a large (if not a majority) of both politicians and the general public, tie they’re hands to reacting only when it can be shown by undeniable numbers, that they must.

[James Malloch]

I don't have any sympathy for them.

Me neither. It's beggars belief that he started the conference saying how much worse the NHS position is compared to the peak of the first lockdown, yet he waited until that point to introduce something strict.

[abarro81]

My feeling is that following the SAGE report before Christmas a UKB government would have scrapped Christmas relaxation, possibly locked down, and planned to not reopen schools... and we're a bunch of punters sat on the net between meetings and mince pies So I struggle to have sympathy. It was totally obvious this would happen; waiting until after Christmas was moronic; waiting until some schools had already opened was truly moronic and presumably gives teachers, children and parents limited prep time (thank god I'm not in any of those categories).

[gollum]

I have no sympathy either.

It’s really hard to learn from your mistakes when you deny that you have made any.

As we were watching BoZo last night and he was extolling how the vaccine was the solution, Mrs B and myself turned to each and said, “As long as you don’t cock it up.”

[Oldmanmatt]

My feeling is that following the SAGE report before Christmas a UKB government would have scrapped Christmas relaxation, possibly locked down, and planned to not reopen schools... and we're a bunch of punters sat on the net between meetings and mince pies So I struggle to have sympathy. It was totally obvious this would happen; waiting until after Christmas was moronic; waiting until some schools had already opened was truly moronic and presumably gives teachers, children and parents limited prep time (thank god I'm not in any of those categories).

Look, I absolutely agree with your proposal above.
More to the point, I wish to fuck the powers that be represented a breadth of education, expertise and experience that the body of posters on this forum do.
But, as an n=1, anecdotal, example (that clearly defeats all counter claims), we picked up my Son’s new MTB for his 14th, yesterday.
Have known the shop owner for decades, he’s no dunce, MTB fanatic, mid forties and Uni educated.
No mask, long and embarrassing lecture about how it’s all overblown and exaggerated. Crowing about how good it’s been for his business.
Fucking idiot is vulnerable, due to his pre-existing and (due to life’s little gifts) back living with his elderly mum.
I couldn’t get out fast enough.
UKB is a broad church, but it’s in no way representative of the larger population.

[Will Hunt]

My feeling is that following the SAGE report before Christmas a UKB government would have scrapped Christmas relaxation, possibly locked down, and planned to not reopen schools... and we're a bunch of punters sat on the net between meetings and mince pies So I struggle to have sympathy. It was totally obvious this would happen; waiting until after Christmas was moronic; waiting until some schools had already opened was truly moronic and presumably gives teachers, children and parents limited prep time (thank god I'm not in any of those categories).

Having schools go back for one day and then shutting is crap.

But, I do have some sympathy for the idea that it's better to close at the last minute than it is to pre-empt closure and possibly end up being overly cautious. If, prior to Christmas, an announcement had been made that schools would not be reopening then schools would definitely not be reopening. Even if, by some miracle (cancel Christmas mixing and have a firebreak?), the spread had slowed, the teachers and schools would have stopped making plans to test children (regardless of how flawed this idea might be), the school buses wouldn't be planning to run, the canteens wouldn't have ordered any food etc. Basically, the infrastructure around schools is not in a position to suddenly open with a day's notice. It might introduce a great deal of inconvenience, but it is much easier to close schools at short notice than it is to open them.

So, if you subscribe to the view that children should be attending school as normal for as much of the time as possible, the only way to make the call is to favour last-minute cancellation over pre-emptive cancellation. That's the altar on which every parent-of-school-age-children's plans for today have been sacrificed on.

[Paul B]

Wouldn't the time have been better spent preparing for online learning?

Canteens will now be disposing of food, something of which the hospitality industry has been complaining about a reasonable amount (being given only a few days notice of closure/potential opening etc. making it a complete gamble as to whether they do or don't order stock).

[tomtom]

To clarify: My sympathy for the government is about having to figure out how to deal with a new strain. 

On pretty much all counts (save possibly the first economic response) they should have acted sooner - at every (often signposted) twist in the CV19 journey so far.

[Will Hunt]

Wouldn't the time have been better spent preparing for online learning?

Not something that's mutually exclusive with planning to open.

Canteens will now be disposing of food

The SARS- CoV-2 pandemic is certainly no rose garden.

[petejh]

:sorry:Answered by own Q in a quick Google... Just under 14m apparently

A handy table...

 
I find it remarkable that the effect of the virus in the UK follows the Pareto principle - 80% of significant effects are caused by 20% of inputs. The same principle holds in many areas from finance to manufacturing.

Or to put it another way approx 80% of covid effects that are most significant to humans (death), happen in approx 20% of the human population.

13 million / 68 million * 100 = 19.1% of population (disregarding .5 million 'carers' as less than 100 deaths in that group)
86% of deaths in this group.


https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/050115/what-are-some-reallife-examples-8020-rule-pareto-principle-practice.asp

[Oldmanmatt]

The SARS- CoV-2 pandemic is certainly no rose garden.

A lot of self important, Yank Republicans, got infected in one, though.