[Paul B]

There's also a reported outbreak at one of the Sheffield universities, 474 cases as of yesterday.

I'd be surprised if there's any further restrictions until the new traffic light system is rolled out (Thursday?) as there's a slight acknowledgment that the situation in the NE and NW isn't overly clear. There's been an attempt to harmonise some of the GM area.

[tomtom]

A week or two ago - 12k cases per day started happening in France. It can't get that bad here can it?

Just as in March/April we seem to be following suit...

As of yesterday 500 per 100k here in Manchester. Twice that of Bolton the previous worst in the UK.

Was on an early morning TEAMs meet with colleagues in Australia - none of them can understand why our pubs and restaurants are open...

Neither can I.

[Paul B]

Because they don't have a financial plan for jobs that are made temporarily non viable by the restrictions?

/cynic

[tomtom]

Scary results in Scotland where IIRC their positive test rate is above 11%...

[SA Chris]

Largely restricted to the Central Belt.

I'm worried about the extent of the "Circuit Breaker" announcement at lunchtime, any half term plans we have may be scuppered.

[Bonjoy]

I think you're right Paul regards awaiting the traffic light system. The Sheffield Star is speculating that we may go straight onto tier three lockdown, meaning:

Red alert (level three) – There would be a ban on social contact with anyone not in your household, pubs, restaurants and leisure businesses would be asked to close once again, and amateur sports (such as bowling, or 5-a-side football) would also be banned. Places of worship would remain open, however.

[Bonjoy]

Largely restricted to the Central Belt.

I'm worried about the extent of the "Circuit Breaker" announcement at lunchtime, any half term plans we have may be scuppered.

Mine too, we're supposed to be staying on Skye for the week. 

[Oldmanmatt]

I just realised, that I assumed everybody was aware of the official map, by post code, of weekly cases. Runs about 4-5 days behind.
If you’ve not seen it:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

A week ago, the map was almost completely white.

[Bonjoy]

Cheers, good map. Looks like it's grouped by something called MSOAs, each of which has approximately the same number of people in it, rather than postcode, so very useful for comparing areas against each other.

This is a map showing number of positive cases in a week by Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOA).  MSOAs are a standard statistical geography of approximately 7,200 people.  Some MSOAs have the same name as local electoral wards and figures within this map should not be compared with ward data you may see published elsewhere

[Will Hunt]

I think you're right Paul regards awaiting the traffic light system. The Sheffield Star is speculating that we may go straight onto tier three lockdown, meaning:

Red alert (level three) – There would be a ban on social contact with anyone not in your household, pubs, restaurants and leisure businesses would be asked to close once again, and amateur sports (such as bowling, or 5-a-side football) would also be banned. Places of worship would remain open, however.

I'm not sure what the demographics of Sheffield are like but if Leeds is anything to go by then all the dark blue areas are the areas where students live either in the community in large numbers or there is a hall of residence. If the authorities are aware that the cases are generally confined to the student accommodation which is already, in effect, in the strictest state of lockdown then they might have decided that life for the general public can go on as (new) normal?

[Nigel]

The dark blue areas of Sheffield are exactly where the accomodation estates of the two universities are Will, yes. Quelle surprise!

[T_B]

Not quite, though whereas back in March/April the cases were in the poor northern areas, now it’s central and around the Uni.

Interesting to keep an eye on somewhere like Norwich, which has a very low infection rate overall. The highest rate is around the Uni.

Good that we’re propping up the universities though whilst so many businesses face ruin.

[SA Chris]

Largely restricted to the Central Belt.

I'm worried about the extent of the "Circuit Breaker" announcement at lunchtime, any half term plans we have may be scuppered.

Mine too, we're supposed to be staying on Skye for the week. 

Bugger. Our two week half term starts Friday, we are hoping to get to Northumberland for the first week.

[Nigel]

If the authorities are aware that the cases are generally confined to the student accommodation which is already, in effect, in the strictest state of lockdown then they might have decided that life for the general public can go on as (new) normal?

As to this part, if the major part of rising cases is a student-led problem I can't see a fair solution. At present any locked-down students have paid up front for their own incarceration in order to do a largely online course, which I doubt they will be overjoyed about. However if they are "unlocked" (don't forget students are the "general public" as well!), which they may be without a decent testing regime as a lot of them will be asymptomatic, then the case for locking down the city arises, which affects everybody, including the students. Its Catch 22. There may have been a fair solution at some point over the summer but that ship has long since sailed.

I'm surprised that one of the superforecasters in government didn't twig that the largest annual internal migration of young adults from all parts of the UK into high density accomodation in major cities might spur a rise in cases.

[SA Chris]

Superforecasters, or even the no shit Sherlock department.

[Will Hunt]

If the authorities are aware that the cases are generally confined to the student accommodation which is already, in effect, in the strictest state of lockdown then they might have decided that life for the general public can go on as (new) normal?

I'm surprised that one of the superforecasters in government didn't twig that the largest annual internal migration of young adults from all parts of the UK into high density accomodation in major cities might spur a rise in cases.

The students aren't there because they need to be there to learn (mostly). They're there because it justifies 9 grand's worth of fees and to keep the accommodation services viable. Or at least, that's what I glean from TT's post from a couple of weeks ago.

[tomtom]

Students contribute to the numbers but not everywhere and not to the same degree.

Manchester (today rate is near 550/100000) 90-100000 students. 5-700 hundred cases.

Hull (today’s rate 32/100000) 15000 students, 3 cases.

Two extreme examples - but there are plenty of places in the UK where numbers are rising fast not linked to student populations...

From Wills point - for 95% of degree courses the students do not have to be there this year (if you shunt practical work to next year or come up with alternatives). It’s so they get value for money and the student experience y’all.

[Will Hunt]

So, what you're saying is that Mancs know how to have a good time and Hull students don't...?

[tomtom]

So, what you're saying is that Mancs know how to have a good time and Hull students don't...?

Nope. But I don’t really care if they do or don’t!

[mrjonathanr]

Good that we’re propping up the universities though whilst so many businesses face ruin.

Are you referring to the return of the students or something else TB?

My understanding is that we are in this crisis precisely because the government has not supported the universities and to protect themselves financially, they have encouraged students to return in person.

It is - or should be- a scandal: tens of thousands of young people around the country put in harms  way, just to secure the uni estates’ balance sheets. They are offered nothing but online courses and platitudes in return. Don’t forget they are paying from loans, not grants. It is a form of exploitation, and a particularly nasty one because although young adults mostly come through COVID ok not all will, especially in view of the numbers contracting it.

It’s just wrong. Now who is the Secretary of State for Education 

We have heard nothing from Michelle Donelan either, it’s her brief.

[mrjonathanr]

So, what you're saying is that Mancs know how to have a good time and Hull students don't...?

War of the Roses finished a long time ago, Will.

[abarro81]

RE bonjoy's post about why other countries aren't putting restrictions on us - most of Northern England is now on the German risk list, meaning you'd need to test/quarantine on arrival in line with state rules for the relevant area of Germany.

[Nigel]

The students aren't there because they need to be there to learn (mostly). They're there because it justifies 9 grand's worth of fees and to keep the accommodation services viable. Or at least, that's what I glean from TT's post from a couple of weeks ago.

Sorry if the sarcasm in my last sentence was not clear - of course they knew this would happen, I just doubt they cared! Students are an easy target - either don't vote / vote labour, easily scapegoated as young and stupid (especially with the connivance of the UK media usual suspects), and pre-ghettoised for an easy lockdown.

Your view above is my view too - my partner is a lecturer at Hallam so I am aware that they are now a property management company with a learning subsidiary. My reference to a fair solution being available over summer is what MrJR mentions - gov support for uni's to allow them to lower / abolish fees and do online only i.e. honest, transparent, fair. Now that uni's are marketised all it took was for one to "go over the top" and offer some token face-to-face teaching and then they all did. Which means everyone back. Obviously they knew all along they would be offering 90-100% online anyway, which I can guarantee you from conversations with students I know was not obvious to them in all cases. So not transparent, not fair, plus costly and dangerous for the students. Into the bargain they'll potentially get the blame for student cities going into lockdown in the future. If I was a student I would be miffed to put it mildly. Another fine mess...

[mrjonathanr]

Imagine being a parent having just sent your excited son/daughter off to start adult life in lockdown with Covid. Distraught I would think.

[James Malloch]

RE bonjoy's post about why other countries aren't putting restrictions on us - most of Northern England is now on the German risk list, meaning you'd need to test/quarantine on arrival in line with state rules for the relevant area of Germany.

I think that was my post, but that's good to know. We got the ferry across on Saturday and checked on Friday before the guidance was updated that evening.

We're staying with family in Germany so looks like we're now in quarantine & getting tested...