[Johnny Brown]

I haven't seen the argument that Sweden has been "proved" right cropping up since the spring.

(typo corrected, I think?)

Clearly Denmark is enviably well isolated from the Times and Telegraph and their army of gammon parrots.

[andy popp]

No, I did mean that I first saw it in the spring and see it occasionally now, typically from friends in the UK (and friends of friends in the US). It's often accompanied by borderline conspiracy theory anti-lockdown thinking ("the government is seeking to control us, etc. etc.")

[Johnny Brown]

Ah right. My Dad, who gets his news entirely from the Telegraph and the BBC, tells anyone in earshot Sweden is the exemplar we're all ignoring.

He's very much a common sense type, and thinks Cummings winning elections by targeted social media activity is a conspiracy theory. However like many on the right he doesn't understand that the economy is not separable from society, and that common sense doesn't accommodate exponential risk.

[slab_happy]

Tangential to current discussions, but this thread seemed the appropriate place to drop these; I've found them really helpful in terms of assessing the relative risks of different situations (including why 2 metres is not a magic figure).

From the BMJ, an immunologist, and an epidemiologist and colleagues respectively:

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

http://www.ezekielemanuel.com/writing/all-articles/2020/06/30/covid-19-activity-risk-levels

[mrjonathanr]

Or promise 'moon shot' solutions like we've had this afternoon.

I’m not sure I understand the practicalities of this ‘moon shot’ testing regime.


When there’s already an issue with getting people to self-isolate if they test positive under the TTI system and there’s so many disincentives to do so then why would anyone suddenly start with the ‘moon shot’ system?

I suspect you are in good company then, since it has been swerved round the National Screening Committee and no one in gov has a clue what is truly required of such an unprecedented programme.

The statisticians are all banging their heads against the wall

David Speigelhalter (Source = anywhere you look on the internet).

How many false positives will it create when millions are being tested daily?

It’s just more magical thinking. Where is that extraordinary new technology to resolve the Irish border issue, anyway?  Surely it’s been rolled out by now?

If the government cannot run a basic world beating test and trace system like the one we have currently, how will it create an unprecedented-science-fictionally-hitherto-never-been-imagined-before world beating system?

No wonder they kept the experts in the screening committee totally in the dark about it, the idea would have been thrown out before lunchtime.

Still, £100bn worth spending on some schoolboy fantasy no doubt. Here’s a reflection on the state of our current system- blue on blue, you could say:

“They keep saying it’s world-leading,” he said. “It’s world-leadingly bad, is what it is. They talk about this huge capacity … well, the capacity is obviously in Inverness. There’s a serious bottleneck in the laboratory, and that determines the capacity, so it’s a lot less than it’s claimed. So how are they going to fix that?”

David Davies

[tomtom]

The false positive is an easy fix though - just take another test... (apparently doing a PCR and antibody test at the same time dramatically ramps up the accuracy and I think this is what Spain do now???).

The more convincing argument for Moonshot failing on the launchpad (as picked up by MrJA above) is that apparently only 20% of people told to isolate/quarantine are obeying this completely. OK - so not obeying it might be going out for a walk around the block when the streets are deserted (ie v low risk) but it does imply that compliance with isolate is woefully low...

We might need Track Trace Isolate and ENFORCE for lift off.

[ali k]

The more convincing argument for Moonshot failing on the launchpad (as picked up by MrJA above) is that apparently only 20% of people told to isolate/quarantine are obeying this completely.

We might need Track Trace Isolate and ENFORCE for lift off.

The only way I can see this being successful is to get rates down to really low levels and then somehow incentivise people to get tested (lottery system?) and/or make it almost attractive to test positive and have to isolate (stay in a luxury hotel/retreat for a week or two on full pay?). Otherwise people will just ignore it if it interferes with life or they lose pay.

[Paul B]

As I've said (I'm probably a bore), compliance to enhanced measures in my immediate peer group is poor so I can easily believe that self isolation isn't rigourously followed. I'd be unclear what it means for instance in terms of exercise?

I have an unfounded suspicion that enforcement doesn't feature highly as it's challenging to do so and, the measures factor in some kind of rate of compliance.

Enhanced measures are remaining across the NW tonight (no change) due to a worsening national picture. This makes me twitch a bit as if you're going to treat things on a borough by borough basis to trigger enhanced measures, then the reverse should be true (local council and MP supposedly were lobbying for us to come in line with the nation as of Monday).

Although I'm aware this is just karma for enjoying the closed roads for cycling during proper lockdown.

Communication on the subject seems dreadful but I'll give the Government credit for the rule of six. Ok, it's not without contradictions but it is at least clear.

 

[mrjonathanr]

The false positive is an easy fix though - just take another test...

As we won’t know which positives are false you are saying every positive result will require a retest?

[tomtom]

The false positive is an easy fix though - just take another test...

As we won’t know which positives are false you are saying every positive result will require a retest?

If you’re making everyone take a test every morning why not? Or as I said earlier and antibody as well as antigen test at same time.

[tomtom]

@PailB - you’d think the rule of six was simple - but one of my uni friends sent this last night on WhatsApp

“ While we can still meet anyone fancy meeting up maybe a game of golf then stay in a hotel for a few beers? Maybe a night during half term?”...

So this is still allowed?? (I hate golf anyway)

[seankenny]

I’ve been thinking that the dilemma posed by some posters - Covid vs the economy - is asking the wrong question. In fact it’s a classic trilemma for the government: control Covid, open the economy, be popular, pick two.

If we want to make foreign travel safe again, then clearly we need a robust quarantine scheme which would include follow up checks and large fines (well publicised) for non-compliance. Councils, for example, should have the power to inspect and immediately close pubs and restaurants which break social distancing rules. In fact there’s a good argument that out of the whole economy, the hospitality sector is the least important and it should be open last, or heavily curtailed, with a solid furlough scheme to help employees make it through.

Of course all these draconian measures would be miserable and the freedom brigade (such pale imitations of their full throated American cousins) would howl like babies.

Instead the government has picked popularity and opening the economy as quickly as possible, and as a result Covid cases are rising.

[tomtom]

Indeed - but it’s a tough one. If rules hadn’t been relaxed so people could go away on hols - you might have had more problems with MH issues and civil unrest etc.. people have to let off steam somehow. But the holiday travel (in UK and around) has surely been part of the reason for the increase. Bit too soon for schools effect to kick in I’d have thought.

*govt did something right claxon* - I think the 6 rule is a good idea right now - and glad they’ve done it. Could have been before this weekend (now we have party weekend etc..) but at least it’s a fairly clear rule.

[nai]

*govt did something right claxon* - I think the 6 rule is a good idea right now - and glad they’ve done it. Could have been before this weekend (now we have party weekend etc..) but at least it’s a fairly clear rule.
/quote]

Is it clear though?  It's always been six OR two households but different rules inside and out.  Now it's six from only two households, which presents a bit of a problem for a couple of families wanting to meet up at the park, etc.
Surely more emphasis on the two household part of the rule would be better with a maximum number of adults stated thereafter.

[tomtom]

It was advised to be 6 - now it’s THE LAW.. I believe.

Not that THE LAW is something our government plans to abide by..

[nai]

Ah right, relying on common sense.

[Oldmanmatt]

Ah right, relying on common sense.

Those words...

I do not think they mean what the government think they mean...

[Bonjoy]

Bit too soon for schools effect to kick in I’d have thought.

I dunno. There's been at least five outbreaks in Sheffield schools already. Including two +ve kids in my son's class. So he's back home for two week's isolation after one week in class (and has come down with heavy cold symptoms).
Pretty galling considering how ultra careful we've been for the last six months... Seems like a whole lot of effort for nothing.

[ali k]

Now it's six from only two households

I thought it was six from unlimited households?

[mrjonathanr]

That's in England; 2 households in Scotland; 4 in Wales but only the same four which have formed an 'extended household/bubble'. Think NI like England.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/11/how-the-rule-of-six-differs-in-england-scotland-wales-and-northern-ireland-13255700/#:~:text=Rules%20in%20Scotland%20A%20maximum%20of%20six%20people,and%20beer%20gardens%2C%20as%20well%20as%20in%20homes.

[nai]

Ah right, so not much has changed at all then, more of a reminder.

[Oldmanmatt]

So, the app threw up a request for Polly and I to book a test.

For four days, the nearest available test centre with open slots, is Birmingham...
Only four hours away.

Apparently, from a local test centre volunteer, the test centres are overwhelmed for the following reasons:

If a child has any cold symptoms or a cough, they are sent home from school, along with any siblings and as well as being instructed to isolate, many schools are insisting on seeing a negative test result before allowing return.
 Between my four and their various classes, we worked out that 12 of their peers had been sent home over the last week. Add to that the four absences from my youngest’s class today and three from youngest sons tutor group.
If all of those families are booking tests...

[webbo]

Wife’s  colleague at work was late in to work as she had been trying to find somewhere to get her 17 year old daughter tested. In the end she couldn’t find anywhere. The daughter had been called by her boss from work, she works part time in a shop in the local designer outlet. One of the other girls at work and rung in sick stating she had tested positive  for Covid and was now isolating for 2 weeks. However given there are no local testing facilities that have had tests available. There is a strong suspicion somebody just wanted 2 weeks off work. However the consequences could be interesting depending on what people choose to believe.

[chris j]

@oldmanmatt - the test booking in Devon is bizarre, I needed to get our youngest tested after he threw a temperature on Monday as I've picked up my first offshore work since June and need a clean bill of health. Monday afternoon/evening there were no tests bookable anywhere. Mid-morning on Tuesday I had a choice of Exeter, Tiverton or Taunton with each having 30+ slots available in the next few days. I don't know if we were just lucky with checking bang on the time the slots were released (this was about 11:30) or what...

[Oldmanmatt]

Over dinner, tonight, so around 19:00; tried again.

Cardiff was the closest available.

I guess you have to just keep trying every half hour or something.