[Oldmanmatt]

I know, right.

Clearly if capacity is 320k and there were 175k tests carried out, then obviously the system was overwhelmed...


Um.

?

(Actually, the official claim, all pillars is 369k and 249k pillars 1,2 & 4.)

[seankenny]

I thought this Atlantic article, although focussed on America, was interesting and we see many echoes of their mistakes here.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/pandemic-intuition-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

On the whole economy vs the pandemic:

“Meanwhile, as businesses closed and stay-at-home orders rolled out, “we presumed a trade-off between saving lives and saving the economy,” says Danielle Allen, a political scientist at Harvard. “That was foolishness of the most profound degree.” The two goals were actually aligned: Epidemiologists and economists largely agree that the economy cannot rebound while the pandemic is still raging. By treating the two as opposites, state leaders rushed to reopen, leading a barely contained virus to surge anew.”

[SA Chris]

Interesting read, thanks.

[chris j]

In the meantime in Sweden a public health director says "we were right"... Pride before a fall or is he right? Given the theories that a large portion of the population has resistance from exposure to other coronaviruses and the cluster spreading nature of infection there's models that show herd immunity working at around 20% penetration. This might be backed up IRL by examples such as Manaus in Brasil where after overwhelming health care the virus apparently retreated without lockdowns or other containment.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-vindicated-say-swedes-after-coronavirus-cases-hit-new-low-lt3cmlhtg?shareToken=902d0ec617bc109ac1c4c3b358fb4e63

[gme]

One of, if not the only, country not seeing an increase in cases.

Will be interesting to see where there figures are in 2-3 weeks.

[gme]

There approach is also where I think we will all end up in 12 months time when we realise we can’t do anything but learn to live with it.

[Offwidth]

In the meantime in Sweden a public health director says "we were right"... Pride before a fall or is he right? Given the theories that a large portion of the population has resistance from exposure to other coronaviruses and the cluster spreading nature of infection there's models that show herd immunity working at around 20% penetration. This might be backed up IRL by examples such as Manaus in Brasil where after overwhelming health care the virus apparently retreated without lockdowns or other containment.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-vindicated-say-swedes-after-coronavirus-cases-hit-new-low-lt3cmlhtg?shareToken=902d0ec617bc109ac1c4c3b358fb4e63

20% is too low for herd immunity. That's if most of the 20% are immune (people are only clearly known to have caught the virus twice as they were in the category of having caught different genetic strains). I think the main situation in Sweden is the people are on the whole way more sensible than in most of Europe: they understand the importance of social distancing and act on that.

A reminder of the horror in Manaus, a city with a very young average population (that given covid deaths were often not registered as such may have met herd immunity levels)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/brazil-manaus-coronavirus-mass-graves

[SA Chris]

Scotland Track and Trace App goes live today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Up and running..

[Johnny Brown]

Sweden has registered its lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests yet even after its testing regime was expanded to record levels in what one health official said was a vindication of its relatively non-intrusive Covid-19 strategy.

[/quote]quote="The Atlantic"]This policy was folly for Sweden, which is nowhere near herd immunity, had one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death rates, and has a regretful state epidemiologist. [/quote]

The Uk right-wing press has been desperately pushing the Swedish example from the start. Would be interesting to hear from someone who knows Sweden as to which of these is closer to the truth?

[tomtom]

Two CV19 anecdotes today.

1. Sister in law having to isolate / quarantine after a child in her sons nursery class tested positive 2-3yo.

2. Zoom with researchers at other unis today - one who’s colleague is on SAGE. can’t give details but the mood at Sage is ‘just make it through to March’. IOW going to be a bad winter - and by March summer temps, being outdoors, vaccine development etc.. should kick in. 

[HarryBD]

In the meantime in Sweden a public health director says "we were right"... Pride before a fall or is he right? Given the theories that a large portion of the population has resistance from exposure to other coronaviruses and the cluster spreading nature of infection there's models that show herd immunity working at around 20% penetration. This might be backed up IRL by examples such as Manaus in Brasil where after overwhelming health care the virus apparently retreated without lockdowns or other containment.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-vindicated-say-swedes-after-coronavirus-cases-hit-new-low-lt3cmlhtg?shareToken=902d0ec617bc109ac1c4c3b358fb4e63

20% is too low for herd immunity. That's if most of the 20% are immune (people are only clearly known to have caught the virus twice as they were in the category of having caught different genetic strains). I think the main situation in Sweden is the people are on the whole way more sensible than in most of Europe: they understand the importance of social distancing and act on that.

A reminder of the horror in Manaus, a city with a very young average population (that given covid deaths were often not registered as such may have met herd immunity levels)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/brazil-manaus-coronavirus-mass-graves

Why do you say that 20% is too low? There are suggestions that exposure to other coronaviruses provides 'some' immunity to this one which means that 20% penetration of this virus => immune population is greater than 20%. Infection rate depends on the behaviour of the population as well as the fraction of the population who are susceptible. Required immune population for a population who keep their distance/don't use public transport etc is very different to a population who go round coughing in each others mouths. We had 'herd immunity' in May for a world where nobody leaves their homes.

[spidermonkey09]

The Uk right-wing press has been desperately pushing the Swedish example from the start. Would be interesting to hear from someone who knows Sweden as to which of these is closer to the truth?

Yep; a look at front page of the Telegraph today made me laugh. Sombre headline on Christmas and the byline of an opinion piece above "Enough! The Government has gone too far." Times editorials frequently dismiss a second lockdown on the basis that it is unaffordable, which is a futile argument because as Sean's Atlantic piece points out, you can't separate the economy from public health now anymore than we could at the start. If deaths spike then the economy will dip regardless of the government telling everyone to keep drinking/eating out/going to the office.

[chris j]

20% is too low for herd immunity.

Given around half of the population may have resistance via T cells it doesn't actually seem implausible to me?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19

[Oldmanmatt]

20% is too low for herd immunity.

Given around half of the population may have resistance via T cells it doesn't actually seem implausible to me?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19

You do realise we are going to find out, right?

Hospitalisations rose in the last 24hrs to over 140 per day.
Ventilator beds steady at 80.

Just watch. Nothing that happens today (or on Monday) will make any difference for two weeks and what happens over the next two weeks will give an inkling of which hypothesis is the more representative of reality.
My bet is something in between. 

[chris j]

Yes we are, but it was always going to go that way, unless you can do a New Zealand and lock your country up away from the rest of the world forever....

[tomtom]

Yes we are, but it was always going to go that way, unless you can do a New Zealand and lock your country up away from the rest of the world forever....

Australia’s not doing too bad...

And we are an island...

[chris j]

We are indeed an island, but with a much more interconnected society than Australia. I think I read that the Aberdeen outbreak came from a French worker passing through on his way offshore?

I'm not sure the citizens of Victoria would agree with your assessment that they 'aren't doing too bad' either.

Talking of Australia, it's interesting that their premier says they found socializing at home was a massive driver of the second wave, rather than pubs/restaurants.

[tomtom]

Indeed - an interconnected society that did nothing about monitoring people coming in for CV19 until - err - about a month ago??

Unlike both New Zealand and Australia.

It’s very difficult to compare of course - but do you think the economic hit from shutting borders completely on the first of March would be worse than the hit we’ve now taken. My friends in Nz and Australia are all living pretty much as they were (apart from a couple in Melbourne) and afaik both economies have had far less of a dent than ours has....

It was probably too late to do that anyway on the 1st of March - it was already well embedded amongst the population then...

[SA Chris]

I think I read that the Aberdeen outbreak came from a French worker passing through on his way offshore?

Story is the guy flew in to Manchester, got the bus up, stayed in a hotel, went to mobilise, was temp tested and showed positive, was told to isolate, but went to a few pubs for beers instead.

[gme]

Sweden has registered its lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests yet even after its testing regime was expanded to record levels in what one health official said was a vindication of its relatively non-intrusive Covid-19 strategy.

quote="The Atlantic"]This policy was folly for Sweden, which is nowhere near herd immunity, had one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death rates, and has a regretful state epidemiologist. [/quote]

The Uk right-wing press has been desperately pushing the Swedish example from the start. Would be interesting to hear from someone who knows Sweden as to which of these is closer to the truth?
[/quote]

I don’t think anyone is saying they did great but they did just as bad as everyone without anywhere near the disruption to normal life that most other countries have had or are having.
Worth looking at why isn’t it.

[Muscle.Coach]

To create an economic reset a second wave is essential, also creating opportunity for further tracking, population control and a cashless society

[seankenny]

This New Scientist piece on Sweden from last month struck me as fair. Terrible health outcomes, particularly compared to its neighbours. Economy hit, not as badly as elsewhere, but hard to be sure yet.

And yes, they had a lockdown. Just that it was voluntary not imposed. I don’t know much about Sweden, but I have read several accounts of how it’s a deeply conformist society. I think it’s fair to say the U.K. is probably somewhat less conformist.



https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

[andy popp]

Economy hit, not as badly as elsewhere, but hard to be sure yet.

Since the article came out Denmark's Q2 GDP figures have been published at -6.9%, so better than Sweden. There's actually a bit of a surge here right now and for the last few days rates of new infections have been running slightly ahead of Sweden (though deaths remain very low, 5 in the last 15 days) but the government has a pretty much full arsenal of tools available and I would expect them to get it under control again. It's hard to imagine a situation in which outcomes begin to come even close to Sweden's.

Personally, I think the conformity of Nordic societies tends to be somewhat overestimated.

[ali k]

Or promise 'moon shot' solutions like we've had this afternoon.

I’m not sure I understand the practicalities of this ‘moon shot’ testing regime.

Is the £100billion price tag because the govt will pick up the bill for everyone’s tests? Or do individuals buy them? If the latter that’s a barrier straight away.

When there’s already an issue with getting people to self-isolate if they test positive under the TTI system and there’s so many disincentives to do so then why would anyone suddenly start with the ‘moon shot’ system? Or do you have to carry the (time stamped?) negative test result around with you to get access to work and shops etc?

[andy popp]

I don’t think anyone is saying they did great but they did just as bad as everyone without anywhere near the disruption to normal life that most other countries have had or are having.
Worth looking at why isn’t it.

Thus far, Sweden has done much worse than the most appropriate comparison countries; it's Nordic neighbours. So far there is also no evidence that it has suffered less economic damage and the idea that there has been no social disruption in Sweden is incorrect (as an aside, daily life in Denmark has essentially been normal for two or three months now).

I say thus far because it is obvious that this has not run its course in any country and in fact the rate of new daily infections in Denmark is currently running ahead of Sweden's, but it's very hard to imagine a scenario in which outcomes in Denmark (let alone Norway and Finland) begin to get even close to those in Sweden.

I have seen the argument that Sweden has been "proved" right cropping up since the spring. It hadn't been proven then and it hasn't now.