[andy popp]

As I've retired it will be a week or so before I get news from my old place but we were overfull before clearing.

The dept I heard from was 25% down ahead of clearing. Here at CBS it was decided a couple of months ago to add 100 new undergraduate places because of demand. A further 200 new places will be added next summer.

[Offwidth]

UCAS shows applicants are up and much to my surprise overseas applicants are up 10% (I guess we will wait and see how many come).

https://www.ucas.com/corporate/news-and-key-documents/news/university-applications-rise-during-lockdown

My niece has had the sense to go to Denmark from September where she has no fees, gets a grant and accomodation is cheaper.

https://studylink.com/countries/denmark/

[andy popp]

My niece has had the sense to go to Denmark from September where she has no fees, gets a grant and accomodation is cheaper.

https://studylink.com/countries/denmark/

Whereabouts? I'm in Copenhagen now.

[Stabbsy]

UCAS shows applicants are up and much to my surprise overseas applicants are up 10% (I guess we will wait and see how many come).

Anecdotally, I’d heard from someone at Sheffield uni that the increase in overseas students was due to the US being viewed as a no-go, with people looking for alternatives.

[IanP]

No it doesn't account for the UK anomaly as it only takes about 10% off the covid deaths

Have you looked at the updated figures? Cases to deaths ratio for the UK look to fit within range of other similar countries:

e,g for 20th Jun / 10th July (based on 7 day average)

       Jun-20       Jul-10   Mortality   Cases / Deaths
France   468       15   3.2%   31
UK           1173     35   3.0%   34
Italy           289       15   5.2%   19
Sweden   1080    10   0.9%   108
Belgium   91        3          3.3%           30
Spain   334        3          0.9%           111

More recent figures for UK have mortality rate down to approx 2%, cases/deaths rations up to 50

I was out yesterday so I didn't get a chance to look at how the changes affected the worldometer data until this morning. My ratios were based on 7 day rolling averages of deaths now and cases three weeks before.

For the UK the ratio using my methodology is now 50 and France 72, so yes the numbers are way more comparable on the new more dishonest UK data.

I don't think language like 'more dishonest UK data' really helps.  Listen to More or Less from 12/8 (recorded just  before the change) which covers in some detail the issues with PHE data on deaths - this confirms that the previous methodology was almost certainly over-counting deaths and that over-counting was becoming much more significant as time goes on and the population of older people with a positive coronovirus test increases. 

They compare deaths reported by gov.uk via previous rules with data produced by ONS from death certificates (which is general viewed as significantly more reliable but has a lag of 1 to 2 weeks in being available) - ONS deaths were significantly high than gov.uk figures during early part of the pandemic but this has now been reversed with ONS figures at end of July less than 50% of gov.uk figures.  The conclusion was that ONS figures are definitely the most accurate numbers but doesn't allow real time view of trends.  Also concluded that Scotland method (28 days) was definitely undercounting deaths, while England method was significantly overcounting deaths over the more recent period.  The move to 28 days for the whole of the UK does look like it will cause issues with undercounting, though if you look into the details a number of other figures are available from gov.uk and ONS. 

In summary counting deaths is not easy particularly if everyone looks for real time update - we had it wrong before , we will have it wrong in a different way now, probably if you want accurate numbers you should look elsewhere than daily headlines.

I'm also interested in why you place such certainty on other countries numbers - I know Spain had controversy over reporting of deaths and I had difficulty finding any detail on methodologies used via quick google (probably doesn't help that anything would likely be in a foreign language!).

I know that we have a shit show for a government but I really don't think it helps if from the other side if we allow a prism of distrust and suspicion to define our view of everything that happens.

[tomtom]

@IanP, given how this government has handled data and information in this pandemic - I think its absolutely ESSENTIAL to view them through a prism of mistrust!

Gosh, where do I begin...
Double counting of test numbers (and including tests sent out)
Counting individual items of PPE (e.g. a glove) when talking about numbers delivered
Many broken promises (we'll test every person in every care home before the end of June - then July)
Track and Trace - quoting misleading success rates (80%+) when if you look at the contacts traced its <60%
The whole Dominic Cummings Barnard Castle affair

I'm sure I've missed a few and others can fill them in...

[IanP]

@IanP, given how this government has handled data and information in this pandemic - I think its absolutely ESSENTIAL to view them through a prism of mistrust!

Gosh, where do I begin...
Double counting of test numbers (and including tests sent out)
Counting individual items of PPE (e.g. a glove) when talking about numbers delivered
Many broken promises (we'll test every person in every care home before the end of June - then July)
Track and Trace - quoting misleading success rates (80%+) when if you look at the contacts traced its <60%
The whole Dominic Cummings Barnard Castle affair

I'm sure I've missed a few and others can fill them in...

I think a prism of questioning and scepticism is required but outright suspicion and mistrust of everything is not necessarily useful and risks turning into views similar to the anti expert position that seems far too popular.

Have you compared the ONS figures to the old gov.uk figures for England?  If so do you agree that there was significant issues with the gov.uk figures?  The position on here from some posters seems to be that the only possible reason that this could have been changed is to make the figures look better - as said, suggest listening to More or Less which is much better informed than me (its about 10 mins at the start).  I'm not saying the new way of counting is correct either but I do admit there are significant complexities around trying to provide these numbers particularly in real time.

[tomtom]

I think the new way of representing deaths is possibly 'better' in that its more consistent with other parts of the UK (and possibly other countries).

I am also glad they are making quick and firm decisions about quarantine (lets overlook Grant Shapps getting the date wrong yesterday eh...).

But the f*cking tripe that comes out of the government and its ministers is terrible. Jeez - I was listening the other day to them comparing TTI to New Zealands TTI (and How we did so many hundreds of thousands more contact tracing etc..) which was frankly embarrassing given the handful of cases NZ has had in the last four months compared to the 1000 a day we have here...

Ian - we have a government that behaves as if it were in campaign mode. Of a caliber of the vote leave campaign... If they treated the population with the respect we deserve - I would be much happier - and more forgiving.

I'm afraid they are reaping what they have sown - and they carry on behaving the same!!!

[mrjonathanr]

I am also glad they are making quick and firm decisions about quarantine (lets overlook Grant Shapps getting the date wrong yesterday eh...).

Um, yes, but setting the deadline at 4am tomorrow captures all the holidaymakers returning later that day (ie most) who have no option now but to quarantine. Some would have chosen this but many will be frantically working out what it means for their jobs at home.

They sat on their hands long enough. If it was so urgent this decision could have been taken sooner. Could the deadline not have been midnight on Sunday?

[IanP]

Ian - we have a government that behaves as if it were in campaign mode. Of a caliber of the vote leave campaign... If they treated the population with the respect we deserve - I would be much happier - and more forgiving.

This I couldn't agree with more, the way this government behaves and communicates fills me with horror - I just feel that there needs to be a side that tries to fight this with rationality and a belief in democratic norms and sensible governance. 

[Offwidth]

I know that we have a shit show for a government but I really don't think it helps if from the other side if we allow a prism of distrust and suspicion to define our view of everything that happens.

I dont need lecturing about variability, difficulties or diferences in national death rates. I'm prepared to give leeway and account for time to react. Yet are in mid August, half a year after the government knew enough about C19 and, after a litany of testing failures, the latest ONS studies of positive tests to population infection level estimates indicate we are still missing about 80% of those infected in just the first T.  Big contracts went to the likes of Serco. These missing positives was my key point from the beginning of raising this ratio issue.. it has massive implications about our ability to fight new outbreaks, so what government sympathy does anybody fair expect? Show me some other western nations doing this badly on TTT.

[Oldmanmatt]

So, SAGE are unsure that R is below one, because they’re using a model that is lagging daily testing numbers by several weeks. Not really seen an explanation of why that is the case. Does that mean the PHE data is nothing more than media fodder?

Anyway, the curve looks a bit steep to me. If my bearing or exhaust gas temps were showing that kind of rise, I’b be into breakdown SOP’s by now...

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The Independent take of SAGE’s position, gives the impression that they are dithering:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-infection-rate-latest-two-month-high-june-covid19-pandemic-a9671156.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1597419009

[IanP]

I dont need lecturing about variability, difficulties or diferences in national death rates. I'm prepared to give leeway and account for time to react. Yet are in mid August, half a year after the government knew enough about C19 and, after a litany of testing failures, the latest ONS studies of positive tests to population infection level estimates indicate we are still missing about 80% of those infected in just the first T.  Big contracts went to the likes of Serco. These missing positives was my key point from the beginning of raising this ratio issue.. it has massive implications about our ability to fight new outbreaks, so what government sympathy does anybody fair expect? Show me some other western nations doing this badly on TTT.

I'm not looking for sympathy for the government (god forbid) - I was just asking questions about the death figures and how we should measure them accurately.  Since we're no longer talking about that (unless you want to discuss the points raised?) I'm actually interested in the ONS analysis re population prevalence / recorded cases and how they compare to other countries in Europe -do you have any links to similar statistical analysis for other countries?

[Oldmanmatt]

Anyone else heard anything? TT, teachers here, or any parents?

Word is "its gonna be a long slow clearing until people are sure of appeals etc.." & "This is going to drag out"

Exactly as I heard just a few moments ago.

I understand/believe this to be a genuine example:

[Oldmanmatt]

I think the new way of representing deaths is possibly 'better' in that its more consistent with other parts of the UK (and possibly other countries).

I am also glad they are making quick and firm decisions about quarantine (lets overlook Grant Shapps getting the date wrong yesterday eh...).

But the f*cking tripe that comes out of the government and its ministers is terrible. Jeez - I was listening the other day to them comparing TTI to New Zealands TTI (and How we did so many hundreds of thousands more contact tracing etc..) which was frankly embarrassing given the handful of cases NZ has had in the last four months compared to the 1000 a day we have here...

Ian - we have a government that behaves as if it were in campaign mode. Of a caliber of the vote leave campaign... If they treated the population with the respect we deserve - I would be much happier - and more forgiving.

I'm afraid they are reaping what they have sown - and they carry on behaving the same!!!

This is long read, but, if it is only a quarter accurate or only a tenth of the anonymous sources genuinely so well informed; it is a stunning indictment of the Government and specifically Bojo’s incompetence.
Possibly a bit rich for an American to be passing judgment on the UK right now, however, the breadth of criticism, on reading, seems entirely justified:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/why-britain-failed-coronavirus-pandemic/615166/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

[Offwidth]

I dont need lecturing about variability, difficulties or diferences in national death rates. I'm prepared to give leeway and account for time to react. Yet are in mid August, half a year after the government knew enough about C19 and, after a litany of testing failures, the latest ONS studies of positive tests to population infection level estimates indicate we are still missing about 80% of those infected in just the first T.  Big contracts went to the likes of Serco. These missing positives was my key point from the beginning of raising this ratio issue.. it has massive implications about our ability to fight new outbreaks, so what government sympathy does anybody fair expect? Show me some other western nations doing this badly on TTT.

I'm not looking for sympathy for the government (god forbid) - I was just asking questions about the death figures and how we should measure them accurately.  Since we're no longer talking about that (unless you want to discuss the points raised?) I'm actually interested in the ONS analysis re population prevalence / recorded cases and how they compare to other countries in Europe -do you have any links to similar statistical analysis for other countries?

You seem to be defending the change. As the mean time to death is reported as anything from 18 to 20 days with a long tail for those on ventilators I'd suggest 35 days would be way more prudent.  The removal of 5000 deaths which is more than a tenth of official covid deaths should be ringing alarm bells when the data says less than 60 a week from baseline stats would be genuinely non covid related. The number of days simply does not affect the practically of their use, or the previous practice of having no limit would have been changed earlier. The official stats are already about 10,000 less than ONS reported covid deaths so you must be misrepresenting what More or Less actually said if you think they said the government were overcounting (I suspect they are just slightly overcounting current weekly numbers).
 
No I don't have data from elsewhere but bioscience colleagues before I left work said the official count systems in the EU were nearly all better than the UK; Belgium being the most honest of all. That they have ratios of mainly over 100 (and some up to 200) while we have 50 after the fiddled data is another indication. Wintertree has revised his calculations on the other channel on the latest data and now thinks 60% to 70% of positives are likely being missed so maybe local organised TTT is starting to had an impact (unlike the expensive Serco efforts).

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/11/uk-government-serco-contact-tracing-contract-leaked-memo

[Offwidth]

My niece has had the sense to go to Denmark from September where she has no fees, gets a grant and accomodation is cheaper.

https://studylink.com/countries/denmark/

Whereabouts? I'm in Copenhagen now.

Sorry about the delay as I thought I'd stupidly forgotten the name... turns out I wasn't told; it's.an IT institution in Copenhagen... studying data and maths.

[IanP]

You seem to be defending the change. As the mean time to death is reported as anything from 18 to 20 days with a long tail for those on ventilators I'd suggest 35 days would be way more prudent.   

The joys of arguing on the internet  .  I defended the need to change the current methodology since it had clear and significant issues, I was clear that the move to 28 days was also potentially a problem the other way:

'The move to 28 days for the whole of the UK does look like it will cause issues with undercounting'
' I'm not saying the new way of counting is correct either but I do admit there are significant complexities around trying to provide these numbers particularly in real time.'

Maybe 35 days would be a better cutoff than 28 days, that argument is not the same as saying the new figures are nothing more than government gerrymandering.

The official stats are already about 10,000 less than ONS reported covid deaths so you must be misrepresenting what More or Less actually said if you think they said the government were overcounting (I suspect they are just slightly overcounting current weekly numbers).

What to say to that  .   

From the More or Less

'now its swapped, daily figures from Public Health England are coming in much higher, sometimes twice as high as those calculated by looking at registered deaths .  The latest ONS figures are hovering around 20 deaths a day rather than 50.' 

I didn't expect to need to transcribe from a very well respected show/podcast but given what you said it seemed worth it.  If you can't find the time to listen to the full 10 minutes, this sections is around 4:00-4:30 (trying not to be sarcastic  ).

[Offwidth]

The latest ONS figures are always going to be undercounts for a month due to the slow speed of processing death stats from death certificates on home deaths.

"this confirms that the previous methodology was almost certainly over-counting deaths and that over-counting was becoming much more significant as time goes on and the population of older people with a positive coronovirus test increases."

The fact is the government stats consistently undercounted covid deaths during the significant excess death period and for a while after it's only recently the position switched. The total undercount was over 10,000, now it's about 15,000 and nothing in the broadcast indicates any different. So More or Less are just saying its current weekly deaths that were undercounted which was my point about your sloppy  comment in quotes above.

On the A level subject I found an analysis of the algorithm.

https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/

[IanP]

The latest ONS figures are always going to be undercounts for a month due to the slow speed of processing death stats from death certificates on home deaths.

Another completely different point, there's a bit of pattern here.  I'm not going to argue since its obviously not worth continuing this discussion, particularly since you can't bring yourself to acknowledge the fact that you were incorrect in accusing me of misrepresenting something you couldn't be bothered to listen to.

[Offwidth]

I just explained why in the edit above, as I guessed that response.

[IanP]

The latest ONS figures are always going to be undercounts for a month due to the slow speed of processing death stats from death certificates on home deaths.

"this confirms that the previous methodology was almost certainly over-counting deaths and that over-counting was becoming much more significant as time goes on and the population of older people with a positive coronovirus test increases."

The fact is the government stats consistently undercounted covid deaths during the significant excess death period and for a while after it's only recently the position switched. The total undercount was over 10,000, now it's about 15,000 and nothing in the broadcast indicates any different. So More or Less are just saying its current weekly deaths that were undercounted which was my point about your sloppy  comment in quotes above.

On the A level subject I found an analysis of the algorithm.

https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/

Including the 2nd paragraph from your 'selective' quoting.  Sloppy comments or sloppy reading?  I'm not sure but don't think such language supports constructive discussion. 

'Listen to More or Less from 12/8 (recorded just  before the change) which covers in some detail the issues with PHE data on deaths - this confirms that the previous methodology was almost certainly over-counting deaths and that over-counting was becoming much more significant as time goes on and the population of older people with a positive coronovirus test increases.

They compare deaths reported by gov.uk via previous rules with data produced by ONS from death certificates (which is general viewed as significantly more reliable but has a lag of 1 to 2 weeks in being available) - ONS deaths were significantly high than gov.uk figures during early part of the pandemic but this has now been reversed with ONS figures at end of July less than 50% of gov.uk figures.  The conclusion was that ONS figures are definitely the most accurate numbers but doesn't allow real time view of trends.  Also concluded that Scotland method (28 days) was definitely undercounting deaths, while England method was significantly overcounting deaths over the more recent period.  The move to 28 days for the whole of the UK does look like it will cause issues with undercounting, though if you look into the details a number of other figures are available from gov.uk and ONS. '

[IanP]

I just explained why in the edit above, as I guessed that response.

And in all seriousness I really suggest listening to More or Less in general at the moment, its coverage of coronovirus has been excellent and often enlightening.

[Offwidth]

It's my favourite radio show and although I think it gets the emphasis slightly wrong occasionally it really annoys me when people misuse it in arguments. In any case there is no more point arguing about the size of the foot of the elephant in the room. Official UK covid deaths long term should be the much larger ONS number (which they say is still an underestimation due to large numbers who died at home with no proper assessment of covid involvement) and if we are ever to return to normality TTT needs to improve massively and preferably quickly.

[IanP]

It's my favourite radio show and although I think it gets the emphasis slightly wrong occasionally it really annoys me when people misuse it in arguments. In any case there is no more point arguing about the size of the foot of the elephant in the room. Official UK covid deaths long term should be the much larger ONS number (which they say is still an underestimation due to large numbers who died at home with no proper assessment of covid involvement) and if we are ever to return to normality TTT needs to improve massively and preferably quickly.

This really is going nowhere now so lets call it a day .