[mrjonathanr]

Everything is messed up at the minute and very much being done on the hoof as it’s pretty unprecedented

The dates of the Á levels and GCSEs are the on the same Thursdays in August, every year. Lockdown was in March, 5 months ago. There is no excuse for this being done on the hoof now.

I agree with your point that there is no good solution, but the least worst should not include mocks which are not the same test in different schools. They are not secure, not marked the same way, don’t have the same content, aren’t taken at the same time of year and aren’t standardised. And many kids will improve a full grade from mock to real exam.

What might have worked better is to have consulted more effectively, established mechanisms for examining and validating the sources of evidence of centre assessed grades, and then just gone with them. This ad hoc backtracking just undermines confidence in the grade awarded. The students deserve far better than this.

[gme]

They are not going with mock grades though are they. It’s only if your not happy with the estimated grade your given that you can choose to use your mock result.

I suspect a vast majority will be roughly right but there will be a few outliers. All the media and chat is about politics not the kids results.

Not one kid I have talked to is in the slightest bit bothered. Mainly boys and mainly GCSEs. 

[mrjonathanr]

They are not going with mock grades though are they. It’s only if your not happy with the estimated grade your given that you can choose to use your mock result.

I suspect a vast majority will be roughly right but there will be a few outliers. All the media and chat is about politics not the kids results.

Not one kid I have talked to is in the slightest bit bothered. Mainly boys and mainly GCSEs.

Not sure your sample size is enough to validate a national system. I’m not really interested in media chatter Gav; just results.

How is accepting a mock result not going with a mock result?  They are using the mocks as a valid grade if the student chooses it, yet there is no statistical validity for mocks UK wide, which are formative assessment,  useful as a staging post en route to summative assessments which are a judgment on performance. These are major exams which affect careers and life choices, not a pick and mix in the cinema queue.

[spidermonkey09]

Not one kid I have talked to is in the slightest bit bothered. Mainly boys and mainly GCSEs.

Oh great, theres no problem then is there? Come on. Jesus wept.

As others have said, you are absolutely correct that there is no ideal solution, but what people object to is it being freestyled a few days before the results come out (which as mjr has pointed out is the same day every year, so they know its coming). My mocks at school were shambolic. No one took them seriously and I got a D in one mock which I managed to improve to a B. Even proposing it as an alternative is unspeakably dim and I'm yet to see an education professional say its a good idea.

Edit: apologies, this comes across as a bit confrontational which wasn't the intention, but I just find it amazing mocks are being seriously talked about as an appropriate solution by anyone. For the record I think the eventual solution arrived at by the Scots (just go with the teacher grades and have an appeals process) is the best way forward. Just a shame they didn't do it first time.

[gme]

I still don’t see how it can be better.

The teachers give the grade they think they would get,

an algorithm based on schools previous performance then crunches this to ensure schools have not inflated this ( I would imagine that most teachers would err on the upside if a pupil was borderline).

Your given a grade but if your not happy with it you can take your mock result if it’s better ( not normally the case) or you can resit in the autumn.

More than aware this year is going to be an anomaly but how can this be done better.

[gme]

Not one kid I have talked to is in the slightest bit bothered. Mainly boys and mainly GCSEs.

Oh great, theres no problem then is there? Come on. Jesus wept.

As others have said, you are absolutely correct that there is no ideal solution, but what people object to is it being freestyled a few days before the results come out (which as mjr has pointed out is the same day every year, so they know its coming). My mocks at school were shambolic. No one took them seriously and I got a D in one mock which I managed to improve to a B. Even proposing it as an alternative is unspeakably dim and I'm yet to see an education professional say its a good idea.

Edit: apologies, this comes across as a bit confrontational which wasn't the intention, but I just find it amazing mocks are being seriously talked about as an appropriate solution by anyone. For the record I think the eventual solution arrived at by the Scots (just go with the teacher grades and have an appeals process) is the best way forward. Just a shame they didn't do it first time.

Jesus wept!!!! ( to use your vernacular) they are not using the mocks. It’s an option for people not happy with the grade they are offered.

And if your still not happy you can take the exam in October.

[mrjonathanr]

What I would add Gav is that I am really pleased you and your son feel that the system is going to work okay for him and moving to the next stage is assured. What is a worry is those who are going to be disadvantaged because the system isn’t producing a fair result. Tinkering at the last minute isn’t the way to deal with this.

[spidermonkey09]

I think we have different definitions of what 'using the mock' means. For me the fact its anywhere near the process and can be used at all is pretty damning and shows they haven't been listening to teachers. When you add the rushed chaotic nature of things into it, despite the warning they've had, its pretty poor. 

I fear all the issues with the Scottish algorithm will be evident in the English results; those in good schools/postcodes will overwhelmingly emerge ok, but schools in historically underperforming areas will have their results marked down and kids from lower socio economic backgrounds will be more likely to have their grades dropped. Using mocks as a back up for this will not solve it, since mocks (I would bet) will be taken way more seriously at higher achieving schools than lower ones. Thats before you get into the differences between how mocks are assessed at different schools that mjr pointed out. If anything it bakes the inequality into the results even deeper. Its a sop of a policy designed to win over the gullible parents of kids at pretty good schools, but they were never the ones whose kids were going to lose out.

As I said above, my solutions would be to trust the teachers. Yes this year would see inflated grades but better that than adversely affecting kids futures.

[tomtom]

Judging by the total silence about this issue from my employer (and it’s clearing tomorrow) - our University has no fucking idea how to deal with this.

Through UCAS we’ll have results etx.. but nothing about people’s Mock grades. How will these be validated? Can schools make them up retrospectively (I’m sure they wouldn’t etc..) as mocks are just an informal assessment non? Some taken seriously some less so. With a complete mix of old/past papers.

As earlier - it’s amazing that even this government can screw up a U turn!

[spidermonkey09]

With a complete mix of old/past papers.

Our mocks were quite often just a past paper. On at least one occasion I had coincidentally done the same past paper as revision for the mock about two days earlier so knew all the answers and correspondingly aced it!

[mrjonathanr]

I do think mocks are a valid piece of evidence. One drawn from a number of sources. Just not a replacement for the entire exam.

[ali k]

Everything is messed up at the minute and very much being done on the hoof as it’s pretty unprecedented but I don’t see how anything could be done right as there is no right.

I still don’t see how it can be better.

Without going into the validity of using mock exams as the basis for an appeal I suspect it's the timing that's caused the issue here. As far as I can remember there's never been a mention of using mock exams within the grading process so it looks an awful lot like they've seen what happened in Scotland and tried to avoid that criticism but not wanted to do a full U-turn and rushed this out instead. If it had been a sound way to approach it then surely they would have raised the prospect earlier to give schools and universities time to prepare. As it is it just looks like a cynical last minute political fudge.

[gme]

What I would add Gav is that I am really pleased you and your son feel that the system is going to work okay for him and moving to the next stage is assured. What is a worry is those who are going to be disadvantaged because the system isn’t producing a fair result. Tinkering at the last minute isn’t the way to deal with this.

This is a system issue though not just one caused by corona virus. The system does not produce fair results and the school you go to is key.

I have no idea how the algorithm they are using works but i would have thought it ties in to the average performance of the school over a period of time i.e if a school historically had 50% of pupils getting A-C at A level and of them 5% got 3 A*s they will be looking to align this years grades to that, so if the teachers assessments show 60% A-C and 10% 3 A* then they will mark this down. Likewise in reverse. There is a lot of historical data to make this reasonably accurate.

This will be unfortunate for a situation where you have an outstanding pupil in an average school but likewise advantageous for a poor pupil in an better performing one.

In this situation the outstanding pupil can re sit in October, i suspect they will have already been given offers from the unis they applied to as these are just based on an assessment from the school anyway. Its therefore now down to the Unis to decide how strict they will be on the grades the kids get. My gut feeling is that due to a massive hole in overseas students this year they will be flexible.

GCSEs are pretty irrelevant in my opinion but may effect the subjects the kids can take. The one thing i know out of the bunch of 30 kids i speak to is all but one have places confirmed at 6th form or college regardless of grades.

A bigger issue that has nothing to do with grades is the amount of apprenticeships that have been cancelled. 3 of the above group are now going to college for this reason and thats not what they wanted to do.

[gme]

Everything is messed up at the minute and very much being done on the hoof as it’s pretty unprecedented but I don’t see how anything could be done right as there is no right.

I still don’t see how it can be better.

Without going into the validity of using mock exams as the basis for an appeal I suspect it's the timing that's caused the issue here. As far as I can remember there's never been a mention of using mock exams within the grading process so it looks an awful lot like they've seen what happened in Scotland and tried to avoid that criticism but not wanted to do a full U-turn and rushed this out instead. If it had been a sound way to approach it then surely they would have raised the prospect earlier to give schools and universities time to prepare. As it is it just looks like a cynical last minute political fudge.

And this is the politics that i spoke of before that i am not interested in discussing, and that in no way means i think the government is doing a good job.

If this option is better after months of looking at it, seeing whats happened in Scotland etc. i dont give a fuck about the timing and it has no bearing on the outcome. Sticking to a plan just because you dont want slagging off in the press would be a far greater sin.

[mrjonathanr]

I have no idea how the algorithm they are using works but i would have thought it ties in to the average performance of the school over a period of time i.e if a school historically had 50% of pupils getting A-C at A level and of them 5% got 3 A*s they will be looking to align this years grades to that, so if the teachers assessments show 60% A-C and 10% 3 A* then they will mark this down. Likewise in reverse. There is a lot of historical data to make this reasonably accurate.

Just on this point; yes, that’s how it works.

[Will Hunt]

I have no idea how the algorithm they are using works but i would have thought it ties in to the average performance of the school over a period of time i.e if a school historically had 50% of pupils getting A-C at A level and of them 5% got 3 A*s they will be looking to align this years grades to that, so if the teachers assessments show 60% A-C and 10% 3 A* then they will mark this down. Likewise in reverse. There is a lot of historical data to make this reasonably accurate.

Just on this point; yes, that’s how it works.

So in this circumstance, those who the teachers predicted to just scrape 3 A*'s would be moderated down and only get 2 A*'s and an A or similar. And, if we can assume that the school has not boosted performance by 5% (the figures I briefly heard on he news a few nights ago were actually bigger than this), then this is actually probably what would have happened.

The whole downgrading thing doesn't seem like a problem to me in principle at a population level, but it will clearly have implications for a lot of individuals who would have been the outliers from the statistics. Those people can choose to use a mock grade, or re-sit. If they've got the grades to get into uni, even if through clearing then they might not decide to bother.

The inequality issues seem to be completely independent of Covid.

[mrjonathanr]

So in this circumstance, those who the teachers predicted to just scrape 3 A*'s would be moderated down and only get 2 A*'s and an A or similar.

No this is not correct. You are looking at this from an individual perspective when each exam is moderated at cohort level. The individual’s spread of exams and grades is not considered. For a given qualification, eg A level Geography, or GCSE Art, the cohort as a group is moderated so that the spread of grades in a given exam aligns with the performance of previous cohorts.

Edit- Looking at Will’s example..
None of the 3 grades would be awarded with any knowledge of the others, just like in a normal year. If if all 3 grades were just a bit optimistic, and this were replicated across the whole set of centre assessed grades in all 3 subjects, all 3 would be marked down.

[Sidehaas]

Back on Offwidth's topic about the death rate - it looks like counting methodology is fairly significant after all:

BBC News - Coronavirus: England death count review reduces UK toll by 5,000
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

75% reduction in covid deaths reported last week.

[Duma]

Isn't there something weird about the way we record deaths related to covid? Ie that if you've ever had it and you die, no matter how much later, it's recorded as covid related and included in the stats. Ould that account for the difference? Can't remember where I read about it though, sorry.

The numbers that involves are tiny proportion of the total covid deaths. If anything in the UK covid deaths are underreported as many who die at home still don't get tested. Estimates are as high as 10% (from a proportion of the 10,000 unaccounted for excess deaths to date).

What I meant by the numbers being real are they are the average current daily official government reported covid deaths (which were always lower than the ONS covid excess deaths) and the average daily official government reported cases from 3 weeks back.

Looks like its a pretty big proportion of recent deaths!

Edit, was going to add link but sidehaas has beaten me to it

[Offwidth]

Really!?  A quote from that news article.

"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."

Anyone here think that is honest?

Not that it matters for anyone serious about counting covid deaths as the ONS numbers have been way more trustworthy for a long time.

[Oldmanmatt]

Really!?  A quote from that news article.

"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."

Anyone here think that is honest?

Not that it matters for anyone serious about counting covid deaths as the ONS numbers have been way more trustworthy for a long time.

Yep, that’s a glaring fucking error there. Just means other nations are under estimating death toll and now we are too.

I’m sure there was an overestimate/over zealous recording based simply on a positive test. This is a dumb way to moderate for that. “Oh, sorry, you took too long to die, you don’t count”.

[mrjonathanr]

A point of clarification about A level and GCSEs. Where a school enters 15 or more pupils for that exam, teacher assessed grades are not being used at all. As schools have had to rank order the pupils’ performance top to bottom, only the rank order and the schools historical performance will be used.

[largeruk]

Really!?  A quote from that news article.

"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."

Anyone here think that is honest?

Not that it matters for anyone serious about counting covid deaths as the ONS numbers have been way more trustworthy for a long time.

Yep, that’s a glaring fucking error there. Just means other nations are under estimating death toll and now we are too.

I’m sure there was an overestimate/over zealous recording based simply on a positive test. This is a dumb way to moderate for that. “Oh, sorry, you took too long to die, you don’t count”.

The mismatch between how the UK nations count COVID-related deaths was covered in the latest edition of More or Less - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000llw2 - worth a listen.

[Duma]

Really!?  A quote from that news article.

"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."

Anyone here think that is honest?

Of course not, but no more so than someone who had a positive test in April and was hit by a bus last week.

If you want the gold standard for covid impact on death rates then excess deaths is the way to go - and that's been negative for weeks. But you are comparing with other nations, and in England until this revision, no one ever recovered from covid, so you couldn't compare.

[Oldmanmatt]

Really!?  A quote from that news article.

"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."

Anyone here think that is honest?

Of course not, but no more so than someone who had a positive test in April and was hit by a bus last week.

If you want the gold standard for covid impact on death rates then excess deaths is the way to go - and that's been negative for weeks. But you are comparing with other nations, and in England until this revision, no one ever recovered from covid, so you couldn't compare.

You mean, no one who subsequently died after a positive covid test “recovered” before death.
This was a pretty stupid system.

There are medical professionals who post here, aren’t there? A death certificate will have a cause of death listed, right?
 A medical opinion on the reason for death. Surely this should be the primary criteria for determining who has died of Covid or complications arising from that infection, not an arbitrary four week cut off.