[Oldmanmatt]

Pre-print from the Lancet:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1?rss=1

And the article in Forbes that lead me to it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/

[A Jooser]

 

[Offwidth]

Pre-print from the Lancet:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1?rss=1

And the article in Forbes that lead me to it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/

If this is confirmed after peer review it has obvious implications for the reopening of schools.

[galpinos]

Pre-print from the Lancet:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1?rss=1

And the article in Forbes that lead me to it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/

If this is confirmed after peer review it has obvious implications for the reopening of schools.

It does. It would be a mad world that I can go to the pub, gym or climbing wall but my kids couldn't go to school though.....

[SA Chris]

Annoying we can go to pub, restaurant or cinema, but not swimming pool and gym. If school doesn't open fully next week I'll be fucking livid.

Doesn't look good here

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/absolutely-crazy-image-shows-crowd-22460319

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/coronavirus-cases-linked-aberdeen-pub-22463006

Don't see how pubs can possibly stay open.

[gme]

All a bit daily mail. I have been in a fair few pubs now both country and in Newcastle and sheff and not seen anything like that.
I still have more chance of picking it up doing the food shop than in my local pub.
I think what goes on behind closed doors a bigger issue. My kids have been invited to a fair few house parties. Victorian dad has said no but I have let them go to ones on the beach.

[Paul B]

I live in one of the locally locked down areas (as I'm sure others do) and had to cancel my folks (who I haven't seen since Feb) from visiting on Fri for the weekend #firstworldproblems.

I went for a bike ride on Fri through Hebden Bridge and I'm a bit bemused by how my folks visiting carries more of a transmission risk than what I saw at 5pm (mixed age, mixed demographic in relatively small spaces) but I guess that's the behind closed doors factor GME is referring to (i.e. that parents visiting isn't an issue, but other goings-on are)?

I'm not sure what happened with all of the local Eid celebrations but I'm guessing, with next to no cancellation time, a lot went ahead as planned (for one colleague it certainly did and then his Wife then disappeared off to her Mum's).

[SA Chris]

I still have more chance of picking it up doing the food shop than in my local pub.

No you don't. If you move quickly around the supermarket and don't stop any more than you have to, you have less chance than standing next to an infected person for 20 minutes with the ventilation blowing the wrong way.

I know it's a bit Daily mail, the Daily Record is the local equivalent, the articles were the first that come up on google me being lazy. you can read other articles if you like https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53650214 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/2384893/aberdeen-bar-chain-to-close-all-city-venues-until-safe-to-reopen/

[gme]

I am not talking about what’s written in the papers I am talking about my own experience. Been in 6-7 different venues and all fine including two city centre type bars.
This kind of article makes out everywhere is like this and it’s just not true, most people are being pretty sensible.
Big modern supermarkets seem ok but smaller or older ones worse than the bars I have been in with older people in particular not doing the social distancing, don’t touch the stuff you are not buying, thing at all.   

[tomtom]

Each to their own Gav, but i'm a long way from sitting in a bar for a drink or a meal. I've sat outside a couple on holiday (Country beer garden stuff) but being inside with a random mix of people (1m+ apart) for anything more than a minute or two enters my needless risk taking category... but as I said each to their own - which is fair enough.

What does seem bonkers though are the rules that allow this and how they are appleid. My neighbours bar (converted shop in small victorian terrace - narrow and deep 2 floors) seats 25 for drinking (no food) but I went to Homebase on Sunday - usual cavernous industrial unit that was limited to 50 people (one in one out - someone counting). That strikes me as a monstrous differential in terms of people per cubic m...

Looks like 27+ cases linked to one Aberdeen bar so far...

[Paul B]

There's now new area specific legislation:

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1290651684876759041?s=20

It supposedly covers more than was announced last week but I'm not clear if there's an intention on briefing out what it does mean.

[gme]

My issue is with blanket bans being forced on businesses due to others not towing the line.
Shut the bars/shops/gyms/ climbing walls etc that have a problem and let the others operate.
These articles are generally put up as a reason to shut everything down.
I also think have bars etc open is eventually going to make track and trace work rather than everything going on hidden away in houses which it is now.

[SA Chris]

Looks like 27+ cases linked to one Aberdeen bar so far...

Confirmed outbreak links to another restaurant, hotel and another bar. They think it was a french oil worker flying in and going out for a night before mobilising offshore. I expect we will have a city lockdown soon, hope it doesn't extend to 'shire.

[tomtom]

There's now new area specific legislation:

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1290651684876759041?s=20

It supposedly covers more than was announced last week but I'm not clear if there's an intention on briefing out what it does mean.

The legislation also states that Hancock can change which area it is applied in as he pleases. So it can be applied to Newcastle, or London or Skegness as needed etc...

Its going to be loads of waves/spikes of different sizes for the next few months/years. Those who were early to the second spike through early re-opening (e.g. Israel) are now seeing a decline as the second round of restrictions kick in..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

TTI sucess rates have worryingly plateau'd. I suspect this is a limit of what a call centre approach can do - feet on ground - locals with knowledge of the area chasing people up (and overcoming langauge barriers) seems to be the way forward from other countries. Not something MrsTalkTalk and SERCO have managed to acheive yet from their bunker approach. Intersting op/eyewitness accound on sky about this process in Turkey https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-turkeys-covid-detectives-working-to-keep-the-pandemic-under-control-12041863 where people are also being pushed to treatment faster as well (rather than coughing away at home) that seems to result in far lower deaths. Anecdotally etc.. 

[Paul B]

My issue is with blanket bans being forced on businesses due to others not towing the line.

...but this is exactly what's happening with issues inside the home, isn't it?

Like I implied earlier, I'm struggling to see a family visit of 2 people to my house poses more infection risk to people standing in/outside (closely) a pub in Hebden Bridge. I guess the former doesn't cause any economic stimulus so the (paltry?) decrease in infection risk doesn't really come at a 'cost' (apart from grumpy letters from constituents to their MP) and is favored?

...where people are also being pushed to treatment faster as well (rather than coughing away at home) that seems to result in far lower deaths. Anecdotally etc.. 

We've received a 'get tested anyway' flyer today.

[tomtom]

Its not just the testing - its treating people earlier - that could avoid someone ending up in ICU etc...

Can't help but wonder why our mortality rate per cap is so bad compared to the rest of the world. (Care home disaster probably a factor - but given our hospitals were not quite over-run what led to this...?)

[SA Chris]

Higher percentage of population elderly, health issues, or obese?

[petejh]

Can't help but wonder why our mortality rate per cap is so bad compared to the rest of the world. (Care home disaster probably a factor - but given our hospitals were not quite over-run what led to this...?)

No evidence, but instinctively I'd answer: because more Britons are chronically diseased with one or more of the big 4, than people from other European nations.


I'm interested to see if there's any enforcement, or nudging, of self-isolation. As someone who's just returned from Spain I'm now supposed to self-isolate for 14 days. I filled in the forms during the ferry travel back and I thought at the time that something as simple as a daily text message / email reminder (the Gov took emails and contact numbers during the procedure on arrival) might nudge a, perhaps significant, proportion of people to act more responsibly than they otherwise might.

[chris j]

Its not just the testing - its treating people earlier - that could avoid someone ending up in ICU etc...

This is possibly a factor - i read a column in the last couple of days that suggested the 'Protect the NHS' message and virtual closing down of services lead to people soldiering on and presenting at hospital much later than might otherwise have been the case with more serious consequences.

[SA Chris]

Looks like 27+ cases linked to one Aberdeen bar so far...

Confirmed outbreak links to another restaurant, hotel and another bar. They think it was a french oil worker flying in and going out for a night before mobilising offshore. I expect we will have a city lockdown soon, hope it doesn't extend to 'shire.

As predicted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53666665

Luckily we are in 'shire. Still TBC, but told not to travel into city, shame I had first sports massage since March booked for tomorrow.

[tomtom]

Was just going to post about this. Hope they nip it in the bud.

[Offwidth]

I was flicking through Worldometer yesterday to catch up with the situation in't US (positive signs at last ... deaths in Florida and Texas levelling off)  and spotted something else. The UK seem to have a very low ratio of the rolling averages of infections three weeks ago to deaths now. As this is unlikely to be related to higher UK mortality rates it seems to indicate our testing is less effective than elsewhere and our actual infection rates are 3 to 10 times  higher than our numbers indicate...pretty important when judging which countries should face border controls.

Some approximate examples of the ratios

UK  12
Italy 30
Belgium 60
US 70
France 100
Spain 240 (this is so high it shows the vast majority of infections must be in the young)

[Sidehaas]

I don't really understand that.
I could certainly believe we are missing most of the infections,given the number of asymptomatics etc.
However I believe we are now conducting more tests than anywhere else in Europe (apart from possibly Germany?) Certainly more than France, despite their recent uptick in infections. They only just got to a capacity of 700,000 per week according to an article I saw last week, which we have been above consistently for a while now. So their % positive must now be notably higher than ours. I therefore can't see a logical explanation for our higher death rate now than other countries that results from missing cases (this was certainly the case in April/May.) I can't find recent data for Spain as another example, but this provides a cumulative comparison of tests undertaken:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

I can only come to the conclusion that our current and recent infections are more inclined towards the older or more vulnerable population than those in countries suffering an uptick in Europe. There may also be some effect of the issue with death reporting that PHE have been investigating (ie some of the current deaths may have tested positive months ago but not recently). It's worth noting that our excess deaths in the UK have been negative for quite a while now, unless it's changed very recently.

[Duma]

Isn't there something weird about the way we record deaths related to covid? Ie that if you've ever had it and you die, no matter how much later, it's recorded as covid related and included in the stats. Ould that account for the difference? Can't remember where I read about it though, sorry.

[Offwidth]

The numbers are real. Maybe those who should be getting tested in the UK are avoided it to prevent being forced to self isolate.