[Oldmanmatt]

I know you are not Matt but the internet is full of such wish fullfillment shit. Its a threat to everyone as such people won't care about following social distancing.

Reality.

All you are advocating here is the “Lies to children” approach to education/informing the public.
Rather hypocritical considering your vociferous blather everywhere else about the lack of transparency by the Government; whilst simultaneously believing that promulgation of actual data that might add credence to a conspiracy theory (it doesn’t) should be down played.

This is why I accuse you of being swayed by your political agenda, in your attitude to the disease and the Government’s response to it.

[Offwidth]

All I said about the French case is it doesn't matter as it went nowhere and means nothing to what we face now. It's interesting and needs investigation but most people on the internet (and quite a few on UKC) seem to be misusing it to defend the conspiracy that we have all had C19 and so social distancing is pointless. IMHO its stupid not to have that argument countered. With the current level of population infections we are maybe two weeks from hospitals being overwhelmed if a UK 'lockdown' ends and any subsequent change will too late to respond once that becomes obvious from a new rapid case growth.

This is the worst PM and worst ministerial line up I've ever seen... their CVs look like a rouges gallery... so yes I'm biased against them but they work in full face of the public and experts and with a capable although austerity damaged civil service, NHS, public health and council sector. I think their timing of the 'lockdown' was exactly right (as discussed today on the other thread), their finance response was excellent, so I'm happy I can think past my dislike of them but you're free to make personal attacks about it if you want.

[ali k]

I can’t imagine someone admitting they sneaked out of lockdown to shag their married neighbour...

It looks like you get a month's grace on that one anyway. Or at least until when some bad news needs a suitable deflection.

He’s being properly thrown under the bus this morning by the look of it. Hancock now suggesting it’s “a matter for the police”, despite Ferguson not being the one to have left his house so not in breach of the regulations. I don’t remember any of the cabinet suggesting the police should get involved when it was Jenrick in the spotlight. Is that a dead cat I see?

[Oldmanmatt]

All I said about the French case is it doesn't matter as it went nowhere and means nothing to what we face now. It's interesting and needs investigation but most people on the internet (and quite a few on UKC) seem to be misusing it to defend the conspiracy that we have all had C19 and so social distancing is pointless. IMHO its stupid not to have that argument countered. With the current level of population infections we are maybe two weeks from hospitals being overwhelmed if a UK 'lockdown' ends and any subsequent change will too late to respond once that becomes obvious from a new rapid case growth.

This is the worst PM and worst ministerial line up I've ever seen... their CVs look like a rouges gallery... so yes I'm biased against them but they work in full face of the public and experts and with a capable although austerity damaged civil service, NHS, public health and council sector. I think their timing of the 'lockdown' was exactly right (as discussed today on the other thread), their finance response was excellent, so I'm happy I can think past my dislike of them but you're free to make personal attacks about it if you want.

Yes, yes, the French case is not important because he didn’t infect anyone else...

Obviously, he didn’t catch it from someone else and, of course, the person that he didn’t catch it from, did not infect anyone else, so there was no prior chain of infection already in progress prior to his infection.

Also, equally clearly, I’m not in the least bit irritated by being tarred as a conspiracy nut, after sharing established and corroborated information, and didn’t find it even slightly personally offensive.

Let’s just ignore the apparent fact, that comparison of containment between Western countries (apparently battling a new, more infectious strain) and those Eastern countries who faced an earlier, less infectious strain, are increasingly irrelevant (if they weren’t already).

Back to wondering why Germany, still, seems to be doing so much better (test and trace, imho) and what’s going to happen there next.

Then, given the new strain, how prevalent is it?
It looks as though it’s certainly in the UK, from the Sheffield data. Has it hit Germany yet, or is it about to? What does it mean for all of us looking to reopen or relax current measures?

[Offwidth]

You can't have it both ways Matt. If it was the highly infectious Wuhan variant it should have spread from that guy and the contacts linked to him and so would very likely have led to an outbreak and deaths in France in January. We don't know why it made no difference (if it was the same C19 as in Wuhan) but the fact that it made no difference is clear in the later data. If it was C19 then it could have been dumb luck or a much less serious mutation than that in Wuhan.

If that paper is right it would likely mean most of the EU spread is the newer mutation so thinking we might be seing big differences due to different mutations would be be a big assumption: differences would  more likely depend on how well social distancing is working  (Sweden indicates this is not just what the government do in terms of formal restrictions but how well people responded to the very clear advice there to social distance) and other factors like better testing, better PPE and infection control in hospitals, care homes etc.

In terms of the UK I'm really worried about several factors: those recent ONS care home numbers, that are tested as C19, seemingly still increasing (and community deaths); that R is still estimated at being so high in the UK; and the flat new case data. Look at the last three weeks of new cases of Italy and Spain to see what the decline should look like (presumably due to their stiffer lockdown?) and it indicates we are not anywhere near sensible relaxation as yet and may even need to tighten up a bit.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[tomtom]

Also important to remember that the virus affects different people in different ways - apparently due to our different genetic composition. There is some sensible research on this looking at impacts on infected twins - both identical and non.

So you have a mutated virus (all viruses mutate) that may behave slightly differently - that anyway affects different people in different ways! 

[Oldmanmatt]

You can't have it both ways Matt. If it was the highly infectious Wuhan variant it should have spread from that guy and the contacts linked to him and so would very likely have led to an outbreak and deaths in France in January. We don't know why it made no difference (if it was the same C19 as in Wuhan) but the fact that it made no difference is clear in the later data. If it was C19 then it could have been dumb luck or a much less serious mutation than that in Wuhan.

If that paper is right it would likely mean most of the EU spread is the newer mutation so thinking we might be seing big differences due to different mutations would be be a big assumption: differences would  more likely depend on how well social distancing is working  (Sweden indicates this is not just what the government do in terms of formal restrictions but how well people responded to the very clear advice there to social distance) and other factors like better testing, better PPE and infection control in hospitals, care homes etc.

In terms of the UK I'm really worried about several factors: those recent ONS care home numbers, that are tested as C19, seemingly still increasing (and community deaths); that R is still estimated at being so high in the UK; and the flat new case data. Look at the last three weeks of new cases of Italy and Spain to see what the decline should look like (presumably due to their stiffer lockdown?) and it indicates we are not anywhere near sensible relaxation as yet and may even need to tighten up a bit.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Again.

You ignore the prior chain that infected him.

The later data, of which he is an example, is that undiagnosed transmission and infection was present earlier than originally believed.
The rest of your last post are simply words you insist on placing in my mouth and not anything I have advocated. Again.
There is now a more infectious variant, which is believed to become the dominant strain, in any community it is introduced to, rapidly.
My only speculation is, did anywhere in Europe (maybe Germany) shut down, prior to this strain becoming endemic? Especially, since the implication of the paper linked to earlier, is that the mutation arose in Europe (or, at least, outside the community where the original strain popped up).

Beyond that? Nada.

[Offwidth]

We could loop this forever so this is my last post on the subject. The infectiousness and mortality rate of the Wuhan outbreak variant was simply too high for what you argue. Given there was no French outbreak in January, the French case was therefore highly likely irrelevant. Most EU outbreaks track directly through N Italy ski resorts from SE Asia.  Yes there may have been a different (to what we have now and to Wuhan) less serious Covid19 variant around much earlier but I've seen no clear evidence for that and even if it was there it very likely made no impact from the extensive genetic tracing, after the Wuhan variant left China. I think the French case needs investigating but does not currently have any evidence of any relevance to any current UK or EU C19 actions.

[rich d]

You can't have it both ways Matt. If it was the highly infectious Wuhan variant it should have spread from that guy and the contacts linked to him and so would very likely have led to an outbreak and deaths in France in January.

We don't know it didn't yet, there's a pretty low death rate from actual infection, with lots not showing any symptoms. Those deaths if there were any would have been registered as flu or pneumonia at the time and I doubt they've been back tested, if that's even possible now.
I don't think this means there was a mass pandemic - but it does pour some cold water on the comments from some commentators that the UK and possibly other European countries acted too slowly if it had already been in the population in December, of course you could also look at it as if it's been in Europe since December than it means governments were actually even slower in reacting.
Tin foil hat now being taken off.....

[Offwidth]

As I said, I think that's nonsense, so I'll post something else

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/britain-scores-the-highest-death-toll-in-europe-and-still-the-whinging-carpers-have-nothing-positive-to-say-by-dominic-raab-20200506196174

[stone]

With that phone app for contact tracing. Can't people sidestep their privacy concerns by only switching it on when they are going to the supermarket and not when they are doing bank heists or whatever?

[andy popp]

Irrelevant to most people, but there were just 3 new deaths yesterday here in Denmark (0.6% increase). I wonder if we will soon see a no-deaths day? New cases have increased by less than 2% for the last 10 days (1.2% yesterday).

[Mike Highbury]

With that phone app for contact tracing. Can't people sidestep their privacy concerns by only switching it on when they are going to the supermarket and not when they are doing bank heists or whatever?

Privacy stuff is a big this for me so I love this stuff,

James O'Malley on how the app may or may not work in the background,

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1258327399391006720.html

[Stu Littlefair]

That article doesn’t really answer much though does it?

I had a good root through the Apple API docs yesterday and concluded it would work in the background on iOS.

However I had a long chat on Twitter with a VERY qualified dev friend of mine who was adamant it would be flaky and that the real issue was iOS/Android compatibility. I’d like to see THAT tested in the real world.

edited to add link to twitter thread: https://twitter.com/aallan/status/1257936154621612032?s=21

[tomtom]

Article comparing death/cases  For when Italy and France Relaxed lockdown rules compared to the UK. Spoiler - we’re a long way from the point they were at..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-peak-deaths-cases-covid-19-cases-chart-stats-a9502196.html

[T_B]

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere?

The section on Nepal is pretty interesting to me. They stopped issuing visas on 13 March effectively pulling the shutters down (only entry points were via land from China and India) then internally locked down hard soon after.

They’ve had fewer than 100 cases. This explains why they were on top of it:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hn63

[ali k]

Article comparing death/cases  For when Italy and France Relaxed lockdown rules compared to the UK. Spoiler - we’re a long way from the point they were at..

Yes, and given the numbers coming from the BoE today I can’t help feeling we’ll end up both with a massive death rate and a fucked economy. It’s hard to see how lockdown measures can be eased very much given where we are currently relative to the ‘5 tests’ the govt have come up, so the assumption by the BoE that the economy will start coming back on stream from June onwards seems pretty optimistic.

[tomtom]

Article comparing death/cases  For when Italy and France Relaxed lockdown rules compared to the UK. Spoiler - we’re a long way from the point they were at..

Yes, and given the numbers coming from the BoE today I can’t help feeling we’ll end up both with a massive death rate and a fucked economy. It’s hard to see how lockdown measures can be eased very much given where we are currently relative to the ‘5 tests’ the govt have come up, so the assumption by the BoE that the economy will start coming back on stream from June onwards seems pretty optimistic.

Yup. That’s fairly similar to what I think too.

For those more economically astute than me - our whole economic growth is built around buying stuff and doing things. Personally, right now I don’t feel like spending loads on a holiday, or meal, haircut, night out, whatever... I suspect I’m not alone.... I wonder if the demand rather than supply will be the real issue once health concerns fade.

Now climbing shoes is a different matter :D

[Offwidth]

Article comparing death/cases  For when Italy and France Relaxed lockdown rules compared to the UK. Spoiler - we’re a long way from the point they were at..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-peak-deaths-cases-covid-19-cases-chart-stats-a9502196.html

I'd add those eased restrictions in Italy and France are roughly to what we have now. Their harder lockdowns led to the faster decline in cases.

We will have to wait for tomorrow to see what the government has planned (it may just be window dressing) but they have yet again, reading the tory press front pages this am, lost control of the message and any significant UK easing right now would seem to me to be lethal hubris. On the other thread I asked where are SAGE in all this? Is Fergerson's activities being leaked, forcing his resignation from SAGE, conveniently as much to do with this (he really embarrassed the government before when they seemed to ignore him on herd immunity risks) as distracting from the UK having the highest number of deaths in Europe two days ago??

[Mike Highbury]

edited to add link to twitter thread: https://twitter.com/aallan/status/1257936154621612032?s=21

Thanks, that's v interesting

[tomtom]

Sounds like the row back/ uturn on ‘unoockdown’ has started.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-very-limited-lockdown-changes-in-england-downing-street-11984686

[spidermonkey09]

Sounds like the row back/ uturn on ‘unoockdown’ has started.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-very-limited-lockdown-changes-in-england-downing-street-11984686

Expected. Pretty bored of the constant briefing and retraction. Fucking useless.

[ali k]

Surely the ‘briefings from unknown source’ and associated media frenzy building up expectations is part of the strategy? Rather than them losing control of the message. Though I can’t be arsed to think long enough about it to decide what benefit that strategy is to the govt. But as spidermonkey says it’s pretty tiresome whatever it is.

[spidermonkey09]

Surely the ‘briefings from unknown source’ and associated media frenzy building up expectations is part of the strategy? Rather than them losing control of the message. Though I can’t be arsed to think long enough about it to decide what benefit that strategy is to the govt. But as spidermonkey says it’s pretty tiresome whatever it is.

I'm just not sure the government are that Machiavellian for this to all be part of the strategy. It plays into the idea that Cummings is some sort of genius, whereas in reality hes just a middle aged contrarian incel in my eyes.

As per Hanlon's Razor, never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity!

[teestub]

he's just a middle aged contrarian incel in my eyes.

Whatever else he is, he does have a wife (from Chillingham Castle near Hepburn) and son, so if he is an incel it’s not the whole time!