[petejh]

I haven't read Ru's or other posts yet but another point just quickly -
We already have an example in London Transport of workers dying of covid in a high proportion compared to the average covid deaths per head of working age in the entire population.

Surely, it isn't beyond the whit of people to look at this example, and think that this same phenomenon must be going on in other humans who are also still in the workplace mostly without social distancing or PPE, away from the NHS which the media and public seem pre-occupied with.

Oh and: if we can record covid deaths then surely we can find out what their jobs were.. it would be prudent to see if there was a pattern emerging.

[petejh]

Matt, in answer to your last post - I agree. But how many NHS staff, of those reported of having died of covid, worked on covid wards or in ICU etc. (I'm not up with the various areas in a hospital). Do we know? If we don't - and I'm not saying we do or don't btw - then we shouldn't treat 'all NHS' as any different to 'all construction'.

And Alex/Ru -- the stats I re-posted from 'more or less' are for working-age population only, not whole population.

[Oldmanmatt]

Matt, in answer to your last post - I agree. But how many NHS staff, of those reported of having died of covid, worked on covid wards or in ICU etc. (I'm not up with the various areas in a hospital). Do we know? If we don't - and I'm not saying we do or don't btw - then we shouldn't treat 'all NHS' as any different to 'all construction'.

And Alex/Ru -- the stats I re-posted from 'more or less' are for working-age population only, not whole population.

Mate, I’m not making myself clear, sorry.

I don’t think we know enough at all to make even vague calculations.
TFL, were they all drivers? Face to face, close contact with numerous members of the public, or one office with a super spreader?
I know, in that case, it’s reported as the former, so it may be accurate, but otherwise?

[petejh]

The last report I saw was 22 had died and they were reported as all being drivers.

As of today that number of deaths from covid-19 among TfL workers increased to 29. Out of a total workforce of 26,000 (2018/19).

https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/message-from-transport-commissioner-mike-brown-mvo?intcmp=62693

This is a red flag surely.

[Oldmanmatt]

Testing is shit and shit is testing:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/coronavirus-found-paris-sewage-points-early-warning-system?utm_campaign=ScienceNow&utm_source=JHubbard&utm_medium=Facebook#

[tomtom]

Nice post OMM.

Guardian flagging up research saying nicotine may inhibit Cv progress in patients. Based on general rates of hospitalised CV victims in France being c5% smokers - and that of the overall population (of same age) being 20% (I’ve got the figured wrong but you get the jist). Similar to Chinese findings on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

There was another interesting article yesterday about how some mutations of the virus may be more deadly than others - leading to different deaths rates globally...

[Nigel]

Guardian flagging up research saying nicotine may inhibit Cv progress in patients.

Finally! Knew the tabs (now vapes) would come good one day.

[tomtom]

Yes it’s an interesting effect as you’d actually expect the opposite as smokers lungs are more vulnerable.

[mrjonathanr]

Time to buy shares in Nicotine Replacement Therapies.

[Nigel]

You would think that yes. It was due to come back into fashion at some point though.

[Oldmanmatt]

More numbers and indications that the UK is not alone in under reporting it’s daily toll.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/covid19datatrackingcovid19excessdeathsacrosscountriesgraphicdetail

[Nigel]

The last report I saw was 22 had died and they were reported as all being drivers.

As of today that number of deaths from covid-19 among TfL workers increased to 29. Out of a total workforce of 26,000 (2018/19).

https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/message-from-transport-commissioner-mike-brown-mvo?intcmp=62693

This is a red flag surely.

Yes that is a red flag. Are TFL getting good advice on Covid 19 mitigation measures I wonder? It doesn't look like it from those figures. As I intimated in a previous post, I imagine transport companies' risk assessment is more biased towards things like driving hazards / antisocial behaviour / diesel etc. With the best will in the world their H&S team probably don't have the best grasp of infectious diseases. Looks like that needs to change asap. I don't know what they currently have, but mandatory contactless payment, fully enclosed driver's compartment, maybe open driver's window (?), driver's masks, and planned regime of proper bus / train cleaning daily would perhaps be the least to be expected. Anyone in London offer info on the situation? Hopefully the powers that be will increase protection levels beyond what they currently are ASAP, as they don't seem to working. Caveat - unless all cases have been contracted outside work. But again, similar to healthcare workers, in absence of hard evidence precautionary principle says do it anyway. Or shut the transport down.

I will update my FOI request to specify TFL workers (apparently it can speed the response to be quite specific).

Incidentally this will be widespread throughout sectors like retail, transport etc., and it is probably incumbent for those of the general public who can chip in with any knowledge to offer a helpful suggestion to management. E.g. if a local shop has a screen over the side of the checkout but not at the end where you actually stand (happened in my Lidl) then mention it. If there is no spray for the trolley / basket handle - same again.

[Nigel]

More numbers and indications that the UK is not alone in under reporting it’s daily toll.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/covid19datatrackingcovid19excessdeathsacrosscountriesgraphicdetail

Interesting OMM thanks (also thanks for link to FT article earlier saying similar). The only immediate comments I have are that 20K deaths being a "good result" (! Hmmm) for the UK seems to have already definitively been passed. So we are now into doing badly even by our government's own macabre standards. Another is that it would be good to see similar data for Germany as they have been accused by some of under-reporting - this data might give an indication of whether that is true or not. The other would be that despite the shit China is getting from some quarters for its numbers, their retrospective revision looks a little more understandable now.

[Offwidth]

A public health prof's plea to the UK government to watch what happens as countries in Europe ease the lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/23/europe-is-easing-coronavirus-lockdowns-the-uks-failures-have-never-been-so-stark

[seankenny]

I don't know what they currently have, but mandatory contactless payment

Awww bless!
(Sorry I couldn’t help myself. Yes, we have had that for so long I can’t remember using cash on a London bus.)

, fully enclosed driver's compartment, maybe open driver's window (?), driver's masks, and planned regime of proper bus / train cleaning daily would perhaps be the least to be expected. Anyone in London offer info on the situation?

Not sure about the cleaning but they have everything else. My father in law is a London bus driver.

Or shut the transport down.

Transport here is virtually dead in terms of users but still operating on a limited service. Don’t want it shut down tho.

[Nigel]

Thanks for the update Sean, always good to hear tales from the big city. Up here as long as you have a carrot for the horse and a tab for the driver you're all good.

[Will Hunt]

My own n=1 is that the lockdown is now largely defunct. Went out for a lunchtime cycle and the traffic on the roads was equivalent to what I would expect to see on any usual Thursday lunchtime. Multiple people who I would strongly suspect don't live together out and about. Past couple of days I've seen large groups of young people aged between 20s and 30s cycling together (not lycra clad road cyclists - chavs on mountain bikes) going down our road. I expect a lot of these people are off work and are quite bored and just think, "I'm not in the at risk category".

[seankenny]

Thanks for the update Sean, always good to hear tales from the big city. Up here as long as you have a carrot for the horse and a tab for the driver you're all good.

Update: just got on a bus... no touching in required and the drivers area is completely taped off, you enter by the rear  door.

Hope those horses are staying safe...

[ali k]

My own n=1 is that the lockdown is now largely defunct.

That was my experience yesterday. Arterial roads were back to normal traffic levels (god knows where they’re getting the vehicle usage data from as it doesn’t bear any relation to my observations over the last few weeks - including the A1(M) which I can see from my evening walk). Remote pull ins packed, picnickers out in full force, groups blatantly not from the same household etc etc. Basically no different from a regular sunny weekend day.

[ali k]

Also, can anyone help on this?...
There is a morass of Covid 19 data out there. However one thing I cannot find anywhere is a historical record of *how many covid 19 tests per day* have been done in the UK...
The reason is I would like to keep tabs on how the "ramping up" to 100K is going.

There’s a good graphic showing this on the Guardian live blog now. If I was more competent I’d embed the image, but the answer is that the “ramping up” isn’t going well.

[mrjonathanr]

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1253321773480697856/photo/1

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-live-news-update-covid-19-face-masks?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with:block-5ea19afb8f08eb2f433f51d5#block-5ea19afb8f08eb2f433f51d5

Can't embed it either

[tomtom]

Its linear (and not fast enough) rather than the exponential growth that Raab seemed so convinced about at PMQ's.

Not that I'm cynical

[Johnny Brown]

My own n=1 is that the lockdown is now largely defunct.

That was my experience yesterday. Arterial roads were back to normal traffic levels (god knows where they’re getting the vehicle usage data from as it doesn’t bear any relation to my observations over the last few weeks - including the A1(M) which I can see from my evening walk). Remote pull ins packed, picnickers out in full force, groups blatantly not from the same household etc etc. Basically no different from a regular sunny weekend day.

Yes, getting that way in Sheff too bar the fact a lot are still off work. Approx 40 cars at Redmires today (including mine). However I only saw couples and families and everyone was far further apart than at the park. I continue to see it as a good thing that should be encouraged.

However the creep back to normality in towns - and those who continued with non-essential work - is quite the opposite. I can't see how we'll avoid a significant second wave personally.

[tomtom]

From my n=1 it certainly seems busier on the roads today. But a long way from normal. There is also no rush hour. If anything it’s quieter (no one out and about during the day?)

Also from my bubble contractors have started working on a housing development nearby - and other contractors are re-doing all the roadside fillers and pipes around the corner. Neither of which are non essential I’d wager.

I do wonder if we’ll see some stronger enforcement / interpretation before any relaxation. After all now is the critical time.

[moose]

The "creep back towards average" I suspected a week or so ago does seem to be continuing.  I've had fire scene visits in the North East and Lincolnshire this week.  On both occasions there was more traffic on the A1 than previous weeks (which was already an increase from the weeks before that), and more pedestrians in the towns. With the increase in people who had evidently driven to Ilkley Moor last weekend, I fear that a lot of people have pretty much abandoned isolation.  Or maybe I am just gloomily seeing confirmation bias (for 6 weeks the only people I have met and spoken to at any length - at a safe distance of course -  have been fire victims....).