[Stu Littlefair]

Wow.

Is it possible that they simply don’t have enough swabs?

[tomtom]

Wow indeed!! Damning!

Two of our baby friends work in a testing lab at MRI (they were repurposed for testing) and are flat out when we saw them (from a distance) on Sunday.

Stu - I interpreted it to mean not enough sample swabs were delivered to them...

[Stu Littlefair]

Me too; but if there’s a physical shortage of swabs then they wouldn’t get swabbed and the swabs wouldn’t make their way to the testing centre.

Or there could be a genuine lack of demand; i’ve seen a few comments along the lines of people saying they got a test immediately recently. If that’s the case they should surely be using the spare capacity to sample the population?

[tomtom]

I’d heard a week ago there was a lack of the swab cases and the liquid/substance they keep the swab doused in/damp with in the plastic case en route to lab...

[Nigel]

"Lack of demand" was the reason given during Hancock's Half-Hour - those pesky patients / NHS workers just won't take a test for love nor money!

Personally being the incorrigible cynic I am, I am tempted to agree with Ali K higher up - I suspect that over this week they are stockpiling swabs / everything else needed for the big 100K tests on April 30th. They've probably got these stashed now, so expect test numbers to creep up slowly, slowly until end of April then.... BANG out of nowhere a huge jump to 100K tests just in time to save Hancock's bacon and provide a nice distraction for the media (provided for today by Brexit, in case no-one had noticed).

The above is tongue in cheek btw. Kind of....

[tomtom]

The problem with that theory Nigel is that your plan requires co-ordination, planning and strategy.

Nope. Don’t buy it

[Nigel]

Yeah, there's no way is there....shame, I bet Hancock is having some nice baseball caps with "100,000" emblazoned on the front. What a waste.

[SA Chris]

Yeah, there's no way is there....shame, I bet Hancock is having some nice baseball caps with "100,000" emblazoned on the front. What a waste.

or one with "MAKE THE NHS GREAT AGAIN"

[Falling Down]

This is good. https://critinq.wordpress.com/2020/04/10/ground-zero-empiricism/

[tomtom]

This is good. https://critinq.wordpress.com/2020/04/10/ground-zero-empiricism/

An interesting read FD. To me it resonates two issues.

First that medicine has a bad past record as a science - lots of trial error and anecdote without rationale testing and understanding.. it feels a bit like some reversion

Second - that science tends to advance through systematic steps - and sudden leaps. Both need to work together but the pressure of people dying around the world from this are forcing more people to make sudden leaps - in the hope or gamble that they pay off.

[Oldmanmatt]

Gilead are at it again.

Despite the connotations of their name, they seem quite the hope:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

[Will Hunt]

UK
Coronavirus deaths: 16,060
Virus fighting superheroes created: 0

Singapore
Coronavirus deaths: 11
Virus fighting superheroes created: 5


Come on, Matt Hancock! Where's our Virus Vanguard?!

https://www.gov.sg/article/battling-the-virus


Particular favourite is MAWA Man

MAWA Man enforces safe-distancing (Must Always Walk Alone) as he repels people and objects far apart. To his friends, he is Manzoorakkaman (Man Man for short), a sports super agent in his late 30s.
 

Backstory:

Man Man is a fanatical Manchester United fan who grew up in the 80s when Liverpool kept winning titles and he was constantly taunted by his two Liverpool fan brothers. This made him despise everything Liverpool including their motto You’ll Never Walk Alone (YNWA).
 
His hatred for Liverpool so far exceeds his love for Man Utd that it manifested as a telekinesis power in MAWA Man to push objects and people through his eyes.

 
Abilities:

Repelling power to push objects and people back, aided by a digital distance meter through his eyes.
Uses a special helmet he invented to control the magnitude of force and calculate other tech stuff.

 
Weakness:

Cannot stop Man Utd fans from gathering as he will be compelled to join them.

[rich d]

I'm still struggling to understand the pay off between the damage lock down will cause short, medium and especially long term to the health of the nation and the relatively small number of deaths. There's what around 66 million people in the UK (ish) and so far there have been 16k deaths, so around 0.02% of the population. Yet there's 11 million newly unemployed or furloughed employees and huge infringement on freedoms and way of life, with no date for an exit and talk of "new normal". I still think the measures against corona are much more frightening than the virus.
I really can't see how many businesses will survive this as we continue with extended lockdown and continued social distancing, and everyone who seems to see this as a new more caring reset will probably be in for a rude awakening if the measures are lifted and public services including the NHS are cut hugely due to lack of tax revenue.
I;m not suggested that economic failure is more important than lives, but economic failure surely leads to loss of lives, and although I've not seen accurate figures there must be additional lives being lost at the moment through NHS focus on corona with procedures such as transplants etc being postponed. I think when this finally finishes instead of the enivetable public enquiry concentrating on PPE levels in hospitals and care homes (which are mainly privately run nowadays) it wold be better to compare the longer term effects of this lockdown on society and it's health compared to Sweden where there has been minimal lockdown but looks like a higher death rate.
Mini rant over. Rich

[mrjonathanr]

Fair points, although there are 20,000+ deaths, 16+ is just hospitals. However, the comparator isn't deaths in tens of thousands,  it's hundreds of thousands without lockdown/effective mitigation. That is the figure the gov is, quite rightly, afraid of.

edit - 'effective mitigation' added. The question is the efficacy of UK mitigation without lockdown.
see pp6-7:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[seankenny]

Fair points, although there are 20,000+ deaths, 16+ is just hospitals. However, the comparator isn't deaths in tens of thousands,  it's hundreds of thousands without lockdown. That is the figure the gov is, quite rightly, afraid of.

Under this scenario you’d also get huge numbers of people too sick to work and lots of people doing their own personal social distancing, leading to huge economic problems anyway but without doing much to prevent the spread of the virus. Lots of doctors and nurses would be dead and the NHS would cease to function - good luck to you if you find a nasty little lump. There’d also be a huge loss of trust in the government and across society generally which would inevitably have a long run effect on the economy.

This letter from Australian economists is, as I understand it, fairly representative of lots of the profession:

https://theconversation.com/open-letter-from-222-australian-economists-dont-sacrifice-health-for-the-economy-136686

As for long term effects, we need to pay for the crisis slowly and over many many years, rather than tear more holes in our already battered social fabric.

[Oldmanmatt]

I'm still struggling to understand the pay off between the damage lock down will cause short, medium and especially long term to the health of the nation and the relatively small number of deaths. There's what around 66 million people in the UK (ish) and so far there have been 16k deaths, so around 0.02% of the population. Yet there's 11 million newly unemployed or furloughed employees and huge infringement on freedoms and way of life, with no date for an exit and talk of "new normal". I still think the measures against corona are much more frightening than the virus.
I really can't see how many businesses will survive this as we continue with extended lockdown and continued social distancing, and everyone who seems to see this as a new more caring reset will probably be in for a rude awakening if the measures are lifted and public services including the NHS are cut hugely due to lack of tax revenue.
I;m not suggested that economic failure is more important than lives, but economic failure surely leads to loss of lives, and although I've not seen accurate figures there must be additional lives being lost at the moment through NHS focus on corona with procedures such as transplants etc being postponed. I think when this finally finishes instead of the enivetable public enquiry concentrating on PPE levels in hospitals and care homes (which are mainly privately run nowadays) it wold be better to compare the longer term effects of this lockdown on society and it's health compared to Sweden where there has been minimal lockdown but looks like a higher death rate.
Mini rant over. Rich

We’re not going to be locked down indefinitely. We’re even lucky enough to have comparable neighbours ahead of us from which to learn.

Plus, really, just read what the big dog, central bank type (not the independent) economists are saying. This is better than the alternative.

But, once more, the 16K deaths are what we have today, WITH THE MEASURES IN PLACE. If we hadn’t done that we would have already had tens of thousands more and eventually (upto) 500K deaths, within a year or so.

Then, there’s all the future deaths, because we don’t have any treatment or vaccine. People get older and move further into the at risk group. People develop cancers and other health conditions that push them into at risk groups etc etc. This thing is more deadly than the Flu and it’s not as if the Flu is taking a sabbatical whilst CV19 stands in.

If we develop vaccines and treatments soon (within two years) way-hey and zippity doo dah. Cushty.
If not, we might have to live with this for the best part of a decade.

We don’t even know if it’s seasonal or if it just keeps going.

We don’t even know if catching it and recovering confers immunity, so nobody knows if “herd immunity by exposure” is a thing or not, yet.

So, even if we lifted lockdown today and just pretended it was an extended Spring break and magically nobody was any worse off than they were a month ago; within another month, off we go again with the large numbers of deaths and overwhelming any medical services we could throw at it.

We are already on track to beat the 20k mark, in a period of two months (possibly less).

And it’s not just us, it’s global, so millions of deaths.

[mrjonathanr]

We are already on track to beat the 20k mark, in a period of two months (possibly less).

I agree with you, but just want to highlight this figure. Current numbers are hospital deaths, ignoring community and care home fatalities. We are well over 20k overall already, the estimate from Martin Green, chief exec of Care England suggested possibly >7,000 care home deaths:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/uk-care-home-covid-19-deaths-may-be-five-times-government-estimate

[stone]

Now this is curious: a science grad who wants to test, but whose team don’t receive enough swabs to stay busy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/swab-tester-uk-germany-south-korea
Is that because HM gov can’t organise enough tests despite having spare testing capacity? Or is it that making use of that capacity is not a priority?

That's a fascinating insight. That underused Milton Keynes testing lab is supposed to be one of three giant national swab testing labs (the others being in Nether Alderly and Glasgow) supplementing the patient testing currently being done at NHS labs. I applied to join the Nether Alderly lab back in March but it is yet to open AFAIK. I get weekly emails thanking me for my patience.

[petejh]

So as per my posts on B3 from here: https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070

and here:
://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488


There's now more evidence to back this up.

Preclinical research on NR and its role in covid-19 infected cells has now been released today in pre-print form, available here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.047480v3

Note my disclaimers - I'm a shareholder in Chromadex (which are up 22% on this news)

[petejh]

Thought I'd share this anecdote because I thought it contrasts with the picture you get from reading the 'covid and climbing' threads.

Did a site visit today to a large industrial site to view some new work. I observed no social distancing in evidence whatsoever among the many maintenance and construction workers I saw (many in their 40s and 50s) going about their work. There's an argument that the site I visited is vital national infrastructure. But I know this to be about 60% bollocks - some of the work is, most of it isn't. This is being replicated all over the country. The NHS will be mopping up the fallout from people like this. Not you sitting at home.

Driving home, I was listening to a teacher and a teacher's union rep saying how carefull we need to be with re-opening schools for fear of spreading covid among pupils and staff. I don't disagree that spreading covid would be bad. But the fact is, no-one gives a flying fuck about 50-year old bob the boiler-maker getting it. Not his employer, not the HSE, not the government, and not anyone who works in an office and who thinks people shouldn't visit the countryside because they might sneeze on a stile.
 
People sit at home and worry about the risk of going shopping, driving for a walk, or nipping out for a discrete boulder, while the real risk of virus transmission is going on in a parallel world out there that I think the majority just don't see.

Then I read the thread about climbing and the BMC's edict that thou shall not climb because it would present a dangerous risk of spreading the virus. Too funny.

There's a split in this country (and prob everywhere) between office/home workers and workers who can't work from an office/home. Driving home listening to teachers scared of schools reopening - and imagining all the office-based people on here agreeing how terrible it was and how poorly thought-out the whole thing is because they may catch covid, just seems ridiculous after visiting a worksite which is like a different planet where you'd be forgiven for believing there's no such thing as a virus.

The stance on outdoor recreation will I hope soon be shown to be mostly nonsensical - but well-intentioned - bollocks. This virus is being spread by people working, commuting to work, and going shopping - not going walking or bouldering or cragging or surfing or mtn biking or fell running.  But I feel the attitude - that people shouldn't go out into the countryside to enjoy time off because it may risk contact with someone outside your household - has much to do with white collar parts of society laying down rules that they themselves can follow but which are blatantly ridiculous for those people who find themselves working daily in close proximity to others without the choice that the people sitting at home enjoy. I'm not saying two wrongs make a right, but I do think there's some self-flagellation going on.
The most socially distant thing I could have done today would have been to nip up to Harmer's Wood or Helsby for a quick boulder.

Just a musing on today.

[ali k]

...the real risk of virus transmission is going on in a parallel world out there that I think the majority just don't see...There's a split in this country (and prob everywhere) between office/home workers and workers who can't work from an office/home...This virus is being spread by people working, commuting to work...

At the risk of your inevitable accusation of being party political, this has been an obvious failing of the social distancing policy from the outset. And was pointed out as such many times in the initial discussions (both on UKB and by the media and opposition parties).

[abarro81]

Isn't that why it makes sense to focus on fixing and/or enforcing those issues rather than telling little Timmy not to do his forward rolls in the park, the little anarchist?

[Paul B]

Did a site visit today to a large industrial site to view some new work. I observed no social distancing in evidence whatsoever among the many maintenance and construction workers I saw (many in their 40s and 50s) going about their work. There's an argument that the site I visited is vital national infrastructure. But I know this to be about 60% bollocks - some of the work is, most of it isn't. This is being replicated all over the country. The NHS will be mopping up the fallout from people like this. Not you sitting at home.

You're going to point it out to them, right? I think there's now a HSE hotline for concerned workers.

[stone]

Did a site visit today to a large industrial site to view some new work. I observed no social distancing in evidence whatsoever among the many maintenance and construction workers I saw (many in their 40s and 50s) going about their work. There's an argument that the site I visited is vital national infrastructure. But I know this to be about 60% bollocks - some of the work is, most of it isn't. This is being replicated all over the country. The NHS will be mopping up the fallout from people like this. Not you sitting at home.

You're going to point it out to them, right? I think there's now a HSE hotline for concerned workers.

Has anyone had a look to see whether construction of the vast new social sciences building at University of Sheffield is ongoing? It was but I think there were complaints about it.

[petejh]

Did a site visit today to a large industrial site to view some new work. I observed no social distancing in evidence whatsoever among the many maintenance and construction workers I saw (many in their 40s and 50s) going about their work. There's an argument that the site I visited is vital national infrastructure. But I know this to be about 60% bollocks - some of the work is, most of it isn't. This is being replicated all over the country. The NHS will be mopping up the fallout from people like this. Not you sitting at home.

You're going to point it out to them, right? I think there's now a HSE hotline for concerned workers.

Interesting. That's good to know. We'll be on there regularly from next month so I'll bear that in mind.