[HaeMeS]

Could their laxer policy be down to being able to more efficiently test and quarantine?

TBH I think part of it was we got lucky. It started with localized outbreaks in small villages (close to where I live), but no big cities. Hardly any testing or quarantining when COVID-19 infections at the start.

 But do not underestimate the importance of a very adequate health care system. And the fact that there were no political barriers to overcome once the NL started acting. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment had carte blanche and their advice was and still is leading. Hardly any politics involved. Mark Rutte is ‘als een paling in een emmer snot’, but he knows when to listen to expert advice.

Hospital is ziekenhuis indeed. Like the German ‘Krankenhaus’. Ill/feeling sick=ziek(Dutch)=krank(German). ‘Hospitaal’ has the same meaning as ziekenhuis, but is hardly used nowadays.

[Falling Down]

An good interview with Neil Ferguson of Imperial in today’s FT (article is free if you sign in)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/

Wasn’t sure whether to put this in the politics thread or this one.  It’s about the modelling and potential (or lack of) exit strategies.

[SA Chris]

Hospital is ziekenhuis indeed. Like the German ‘Krankenhaus’. Ill/feeling sick=ziek(Dutch)=krank(German). ‘Hospitaal’ has the same meaning as ziekenhuis, but is hardly used nowadays.

Interesting, another demonstration that Afrikaans is an old undeveloped form of Dutch. Hospitaal is still the only term for one there. Afrikaans they use siek too, not ziek.

[Offwidth]

An good interview with Neil Ferguson of Imperial in today’s FT (article is free if you sign in)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/

Wasn’t sure whether to put this in the politics thread or this one.  It’s about the modelling and potential (or lack of) exit strategies.

Copied FT headline into Google news as others advised.

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiECGsMeUPQouc19YgqglvAUcqFwgEKg8IACoHCAow-4fWBzD4z0gwwtp6?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

Also a Guardian link on a survey of PPE shortages

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/nhs-doctors-lacking-ppe-bullied-into-treating-covid-19-patients

[Oldmanmatt]

Hospital is ziekenhuis indeed. Like the German ‘Krankenhaus’. Ill/feeling sick=ziek(Dutch)=krank(German). ‘Hospitaal’ has the same meaning as ziekenhuis, but is hardly used nowadays.

Interesting, another demonstration that Afrikaans is an old undeveloped form of Dutch. Hospitaal is still the only term for one there. Afrikaans they use siek too, not ziek.

Yeah, some of my olds refer to messy omelettes as “Hondasiek” , which baffled me as a kid.
Many years later, as a skipper, I had a First Mate from Pietermaritzburg and this came up in convo.

Apparently it means “Dog Vomit”.

To be fair, the Rhodesian ancestors, were a fucking hard bunch and probably wouldn’t have flinched at an authentic version, if hungry and with a little seasoning...

[gme]

An good interview with Neil Ferguson of Imperial in today’s FT (article is free if you sign in)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/

Wasn’t sure whether to put this in the politics thread or this one.  It’s about the modelling and potential (or lack of) exit strategies.

This, an pretty much all articles on possible exit strategys, are pretty horrific reading and outline something that i dont think most people have really go there heads around, myself included. We are not going to be able to resume a life like we are used to for a minimum of 18 months.
I dont see a way forward without adoption of some kind of herd immunity unless we sit and wait for a vaccine to be produced then rolled out  which i guess isnt on the horizon for the next 12 months. Therefore we are going to have to let people get out on get on with stuff, get infected and get ill in a manor that does not overload the NHS.
My guess is that this will happen for crucial elements of the economy, schools and unis etc. 1st and then held for a good long while.

My fear is the likes of climbing walls being open for a long time nor general access to the crags as they will just not be deemed essential nor do they add a lot to the economy in the scheme of things. Peoples social lives are going to be radically different for a long time.

[Oldmanmatt]

I don’t think anybody is actually disputing the herd immunity thing, though, are they?

It’s about controlling the rate of infection to a manageable rate.
Somebody up top realised we wouldn’t cope without drastic action, because “they” could see that “we” weren’t taking the social distancing seriously enough.

Everyday, the N⁰10 FB/Twitter account post their data on things like road use, public transport use etc etc, that they seem to be using as guides to amount of social interaction.
I assume their actions a couple of weeks ago were based on similar.

[HaeMeS]

FAZ published an interesting interview with a pulmonologist from the western part of Germany today. He shares an interesting view on how and why people die from COVID-19 and whether treatment by intubation is in their best interest or not.

If his (and his colleagues) opinion/strategy holds true this could have serious implications. It might explain lower mortality in Germany as well.

In short should translation not work:
- hospitals and doctors all around the world were/are panicking.
- intubation is thought to be best treatment for serious cases.
- except it is not for most patients.
- intubation leads to significantly higher mortality.
- stop intubating (unless necessary).

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/gesundheit/coronavirus/beatmung-beim-coronavirus-lungenfacharzt-im-gespraech-16714565.html?premium

^Behind the paywall, but probably readable for first time visitors.

[abarro81]

My fear is the likes of climbing walls being open for a long time nor general access to the crags as they will just not be deemed essential nor do they add a lot to the economy in the scheme of things.

I'm getting the same fear. How many sleeping pills to knock me out until Sept 2021?

[SA Chris]

I'd like to think that allowing people out into the hills / coutryside for walking / climbing is relatively low risk vs perceived mental and physical benefits, compared to not allowing mass participation events,mass spectator events and "confined" exercise environments like climbing walls, pools, gyms, sports centres etc.

[Doylo]

My fear is the likes of climbing walls being open for a long time nor general access to the crags as they will just not be deemed essential nor do they add a lot to the economy in the scheme of things.

I'm getting the same fear. How many sleeping pills to knock me out until Sept 2021?

You’ll be weak as shit though.

[abarro81]

You’ll be weak as shit though.

No change there then.

I'd like to think that allowing people out into the hills / coutryside for walking / climbing is relatively low risk vs perceived mental and physical benefits, compared to not allowing mass participation events,mass spectator events and "confined" exercise environments like climbing walls, pools, gyms, sports centres etc.

Hopefully. It's the mass travel that they'll be scared of though surely? Doesn't make so much economic impact but does have people smashing around the country a lot. I reckon low-key local venues might be viable quite early on. Good venues that you have to drive 1hr+ to I guess will have to wait until 1. travel for recreation is legit and 2. locals wont come at you with pitchforks.

[SA Chris]

Fine by me. I'll break out the pitchfork and defend my projects against strong local wads who are stuck here and start sniffing about.

[Doylo]

It’s not gonna be hard for me to outrun the angry grannies round here.

[SA Chris]

Thought chasing them was more your style.

[Doylo]

Thought chasing them was more your style.

The grandads ye.

[TobyD]

My fear is the likes of climbing walls being open for a long time nor general access to the crags as they will just not be deemed essential nor do they add a lot to the economy in the scheme of things.

I'm getting the same fear. How many sleeping pills to knock me out until Sept 2021?

Three zopiclone and a bottle of vodka would probably do the trick Alex. It'd be an interesting hangover though.

[tomtom]

As others have mused - I can see walls being out of action for until this is near enough over (12-18 months - vaccine+herd immunity stuff).

But crags and the great outdoors will be allowed way before that I think... and part of the reason we’re not going to crags is (a) not to overload the NHS (not sure it would but part of b) (b) setting a good example so all the scrotes don’t go out having BBQ’s at Curbar etc... Once the movement restrictions are loosened (presuming there will still be social distancing) then getting into your car to go to a crag won’t be such a bad thing to do...

That all involves being sensible when climbing, not in groups - not with someone outside of your household, and making sure holds are clean - not been used before you visit (which isnt as hard as you think in the UK - people just need to use their imagination and not go to Plantation and Burbage).

/musing over

[spidermonkey09]

This may have been posted before, so apologies if so, but I enjoyed it.

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/issue-1519/news?fbclid=IwAR2uZUhbGVdYwnXhEhDy3uZ1UvpCnKsRWbMG_GIBVdTxI4jzisR8cfOlHUQ

On the subject of climbing, once rules are relaxed to the tune of pubs being open I think climbing is in regardless of crag choice. Prior to that, it will depend on how many of the rest of the public are following the rules as to what the community does i would have thought. If walking spots are rammed there will be a significant proportion who think 'fuck it, I'm going'.

[mrjonathanr]

I don’t think pubs will be open for the foreseeable.

Let’s hope the IMHE predictions are way off -66,000 by August...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

[Duma]

look at italy and spain on the imhe site -

the numbers for the uk are obviously way off

[mrjonathanr]

Care to explain? Italy and Spain figures are dropping off, UK climbing. It’s how long and how fast that climb will be that is the question.

[Duma]

3 countries similar size - week or two further ahead in the cycle

France peak
25k hospital beds
6k ICU
5K ventilation
1k/day deaths
Total by August 15k

Spain peak
29k hospital beds
7k ICU
6K ventilation
1k/day deaths
Total by August 19k

Italy peak
29k hospital beds
7k ICU
6K ventilation
1k/day deaths
Total by August 20k

UK Projected Peak
102k hospital beds
25k ICU
21K ventilation
3k/day deaths
Total by August 66k

Theres no reason I can see to expect our outbreak to be 3-4 times as bad as any of the countries above

[mrjonathanr]

Thanks Duma. They seem to expect the initial delayed distancing to have a big impact on exponential growth.
From the Guardian:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.
...
The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus death toll stood at 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.
...
Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.
...
The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.

The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said: what had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain, what had happened so far in the UK, and when physical distancing measures were put in place.

In the early stages of the UK outbreak, deaths climbed steeply, which the IHME says is a major driver of predicted deaths. The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 deaths a day.

Important to say Ferguson and Imperial strongly dispute the figures.

Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.
 

[Duma]

They are already way out - the resouces graph shows that by today their base case has a shortfall of ~40k hospital beds and ~11k ICU beds

that's clearly nowhere near the reality.

Deaths the model shows 1250 6th april and 1250 today - actual numbers are 439 and 786 - that's scraping the bottom of their confidence interval

Also look at the shape of the death graph - france, italy and spain all show a very steep peak shape - with corresponding low totals - Ours for some reason is three times as high and a broad hill - maybe they think our lockdown will be much less effective - and I'm no expert, but I can't see it.