[BrutusTheBear]

I think our friends new neighbours may get some ‘dirty post’  ...
Seriously though.. I am unlikely to come across grockles because we’re not leaving home at all, save to go for walks straight from home..  Viruses can’t move by themselves, it’s not hard to grasp, surely.  So either some people really aren’t so sharp or they’re just being selfish cvnts.  Given that our anecdotal sample of ‘self isolating’ Londoners went ‘surfing’ this afternoon in the shittest conditions imaginable, I’m suggesting it’s the latter.

[Will Hunt]

I thought you had been out for walks will?

Not this week.

[Oldmanmatt]

Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some  inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...
...

So only a little more lax than here but with calmer reporting?


My wife has been out walking the kids each day this week and has reported significantly more traffic about. It seems people are getting bored of the lockdown. Or at least have a completely different idea of what the word "essential" means. Some of my work colleagues have been into work to collect a monitor to make it more easy to work at home. Journeys of 10 miles +, sometimes on the M62 there. Hardly essential is it?

We can't say that we're saints on here though, can we? The "how to build a woodie" thread has seen plenty of people out buying wood for instance...    (Sorry if that's you. I have no idea whether the local builder's merchants is right next to the supermarket and you were there anyway).
Not me, though. I haven't left home for a week other than to go to Aldi for an hour - which was the scariest time of the whole situation so far. I kept feeling the urge to say "blessed be the fruit" to everyone.

My supermarket trip was fucking surreal.

That wasn’t the phrase that occurred (but spot on), I was truly expecting cans of Soylent Green...

Under His eye.

[Oldmanmatt]

I think our friends new neighbours may get some ‘dirty post’  ...
Seriously though.. I am unlikely to come across grockles because we’re not leaving home at all, save to go for walks straight from home..  Viruses can’t move by themselves, it’s not hard to grasp, surely.  So either some people really aren’t so sharp or they’re just being selfish cvnts.  Given that our anecdotal sample of ‘self isolating’ Londoners went ‘surfing’ this afternoon in the shittest conditions imaginable, I’m suggesting it’s the latter.

Eggs.

Eggs is good for what ails ye.


Thrown properly.

[gme]

Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some  inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) is basically in charge and tells the government what to do. It’s not politicians or the media dictating rules and regulations, it’s epidemiologists.

Contrarily to what some might think what is in place is a pretty effective yet not restrictive voluntary lockdown. Basically all social contact has come to a standstill. Gatherings of more than 3 people are not allowed. Walking, surfing, cycling, running, walking the dog is allowed. Just keep your distance. No need to get upset over people doing stuff outside where it is not possible to infect others! Big parking lots at very popular outdoor venues have closed or will close during the weekend. Schools have been closed for 3 weeks now, bit kids are still allowed to play together outside. Work and travel is still not restricted, but people are asked to stay home, which has a huge effect.

The funny thing is, in normal live (the live not lived on social media and internet fora) hardly anybody is panicking, even newspapers and television are keeping it sane.  And yes, deaths and IC admissions are still on the rise, but the growth is slowing down, and will probably stabilize
in a few days. RIVM has changed it’s approach since the start of the outbreak, but that's hardly surprising as they will have to act to a known unknown, but do not want to disrupt normal live excessively. It seems they/the government are doing an OK job (disclaimer: I’ve worked @RIVM in the past, but on a different subject).

Today, we saw official data on weekly mortality in 2020 which was compared to weekly mortality in the previous years. It shows the real mortality caused by COVID-19 to be a lot bigger than hospital data (duh...). It also shows COVID-19 mortality to be bigger than mortality caused by the last serious outbreak of the flu. Next weeks data will be even higher: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Concerning IC capacity: today’s 1324 IC beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients. Up by 51. IC Capacity has gone up to 2100 beds (from 1200), and will rise to 2400 in a couple of days. No panic yet.

Thanks for reiterating exactly what I am being told from my partners over there. It seems that there is a much more calm and less reactionary policy in place that appears to be keeping you on at least a similar path to here. Time will tell if it works, as it will our policy.

I suspect both countries will end up in pretty similar places but with the Netherlands not having fucked it’s economy over quite as well as we have.

Prepare to be told your wrong and your all going to die. Or failing that get very few responses to your post.

[mrjonathanr]

Scientists have warned repeatedly that strict lockdowns make it harder to build up immunity and create the risk of a new spike in cases when people are let out again.

You are right, that is what it is meant to do. No herd immunity if no new infection with in the herd.

Lift the lockdown and the epidemic resumes. So there has to be another solution, otherwise we will have to live like a whack-a-mole game- ducking back into our holes as the virus roars back every time restrictions are eased. Until a virus is available.

So then herd immunity  looks attractive. Don’t outrun the unrunnable, just manage its pace. Maybe the Dutch are much shrewder than UK and can make it work..

It’s very risky though, potentially with tragic consequences. Is there any other option? Of course there is. WHO have been shouting from the rooftops for those willing to listen.

You should read this Gav
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

[mark20]

I've been out each day for work this week and noticed that the traffic has slightly increased Weds & Thurs, and massively increased today, as Will also reports. I suspect the majority are a bit fed up of the shutdown now and tossing it off. Our Dear Leader made a worried plea on radio/TV for people to stay at home this weekend as the weather warms up. The death toll seems to be well on track with Spain/Italy, currently without the harsh lockdowns those countries have. I hope He announces stricter measures at the beginning of next week.
Respect to all those on the front line

[remus]

Google have released a mobility report using anonymised data from google maps users to look at how busy certain sectors are compared to baseline. They advise against comparing the figures between countries, but I think within european countries you can probably make a fairly sensible comparison to see how strict the current lockdown situation is in a given country. To pick a couple of relevant countries from this thread:

Sector, UK, Netherlands, Italy

Retail and Recreation, -85%, -65%, -94%
Grocery and Pharmacy, -46%, -29%, -85%
Parks, -52%, -30%, -90%
Transit Stations, -75%, -68%, -87%
Workplace, -55%, -35%, -63%
Residential, +15%, +11%, +24%

Perhaps unsurprising, but it looks to me like the UK is fairly in the middle in terms of lockdown severity.

[Stu Littlefair]

Remus beat me to it!

Trips For:

Retail & Recreation: down 85% (UK), 65% (NL), 24% (Sweden)
Grocery: down 45% (UK), 30% (NL), 10% (Sweden)
Parks: down 52% (UK), 30% (UK), UP 43% (Sweden)
Work: down 55% (UK), 35% (NL), 18% (Sweden)

The Dutch numbers are pretty reasonable, and it’s interesting to note that they dropped a week before ours did, which will help tremendously. Striking that movements to places of work are down 35%, despite businesses not being forced to close.

By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Sweden on the other hand... Perhaps their epidemiologists think the low population density will keep the virus under control there? It might well do.

[mrjonathanr]

Sweden on the other hand... Perhaps their epidemiologists think the low population density will keep the virus under control there? It might well do.

Hard to imagine that, unless you are referring to geographically distant communities with no travel between them. Otherwise surely lower population density = lower rate of transmission? Wouldn’t the  area under the curve ultimately be the same?

[Stu Littlefair]

It will, but that’s true everywhere since there’s no vaccine, and we suspect no natural immunity. All the efforts to date are about slowing the rate of infection, to stop health services being overwhelmed and buy more time for a vaccine.

[tomtom]

And to evaluate which retrovirals work - which will be 6-9 months ahead of vaccines.

[shark]

I’m pretty sure I’ve got it (mildly.). Colleague tested positive and 3/4 of people in my house unwell. The 7 year old is happily unaffected. Symptoms have been dry cough, chest pains and breathless. No fever, although I normally run at 35.6 and got up to 37.   The illness overlapped with having shingles so it was difficult to be specific about tiredness, headaches etc.

I might not change my behaviour in regards to social distancing, but I’ll certainly feel more confident at work - patient facing NHS. In a lot of ways it’s a massive relief to be pretty certain I’ve had it.

Did you get tested to confirm?

[Oldmanmatt]

It will, but that’s true everywhere since there’s no vaccine, and we suspect no natural immunity. All the efforts to date are about slowing the rate of infection, to stop health services being overwhelmed and buy more time for a vaccine.

As I mentioned already, I think restrictions will be eased (end of April?) until load threatens capacity again, and so on.
I would think vulnerable groups will want to keep up their own isolation until tested/vacinated/able to be treated.

“
Exit strategy:

Actually, I reckon, the first  Lockdown, is to buy time to increase Care capacity. Let the deaths drop to a “tolerable” level. 
Then it will be eased and only brought back when the new capacity seems likely to be breached.

I suspect this is why testing is not the priority that “we” think it should be. It’s ultimately not worth it.
Others have already pointed out the issues with passport to work schemes. Likely so fullbof holes as to be pointless and only a couple of people slipping through and starting off the infection cycle again is enough.

We’re in this for the long haul and the lockdown is way more cynical than “we” think and almost certainly “they” think it the least worst option.”

[Ru]

By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?

[mrjonathanr]

3rd article from Tomas Pueyo, about developments in US:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9

The article is quite broad ranging in order to come to a final conclusion.

For those interested in the debate between social distancing and economic impact, I recommend reading it as it considers the issue at some length.

[Oldmanmatt]

By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?

I have, rightly or wrongly, always felt that certain Northern European nations are, simply, better behaved than we tend to be. It’s usually felt that way when I’ve been in those places and it seemed that they regarded us as somewhat juvenile.

Maybe we need an order.

Our military, for instance, was, often, absolutely outrageously behaved, until orders were given; when they suddenly snapped into a rather efficient, professional and determined bunch.

[petejh]

By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?

[gme]

By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?

Oh they do. They like a drink as much as the brits.

[gme]

By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?

The Dutch show me loads of similar videos of there own idiots abroad. They have there own versions of Benidorm.

[tomtom]

More grim news on the deaths totals today...

Looks like we’re well in the same zone as Spain and Italy...

[Oldmanmatt]

More grim news on the deaths totals today...

Looks like we’re well in the same zone as Spain and Italy...

The FT are calling it “worse” than Italy.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The Guardian say it’s under reported. One day at the end of March the reported deaths were 159, revised to over 460 two days later. Takes upto 3 days to gather all the data apparently.

Oops. Here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

[tomtom]

Yeah a day deaths are when the tally of the paperwork rather than those who died in the last 24 hours. Which means there’s a 2-3 day potential Lag before the peak is reported... over all it will balance out..

New York’s curve looks fucking scary. Apparently more deaths in West Midlands than London today...

You can do some horrible rough maths. If 50% of ICU CV patients die and someone is in ICU for 10 days.. 8000 ICU beds - means 400 deaths a day from ICU. Of course if the length of stay before death is <10 days then those deaths a day can go up.

[Murph]

3rd article from Tomas Pueyo, about developments in US:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9

The article is quite broad ranging in order to come to a final conclusion.

For those interested in the debate between social distancing and economic impact, I recommend reading it as it considers the issue at some length.

I'm a bit nervous about posting anything about this because I dont want to appear heartless. I wont go into personal anecdotes too much but I have taken this very seriously since the start. I dont think that it doesn't matter or that the consequences will be felt only by other people. But we can still retain some objectivity, right?

Interesting article. Powerful stuff. I loved the bit about where the spring breakers went next.

But I'm not such a fan of red dot chart that seems central to demonstrating the win-win of restrictions causing the best economic and mortality outcomes. 

The top left of the chart - green dots that had restrictive policies and did well economically and mortality-wise - the data points that look like they contribute heavily to the downward sloping (non)tradeoff...they are showing that in the period 1914-1919 employment in those cities *doubled*. Looking at the list of cities it is west coast places that were massively growing in that period - before and after Spanish flu. Look at the list - Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle etc. But over on the bottom right the red dots showing the places that didn't socially isolate(?) and had higher mortality and lower job growth - east coast established cities that were not going through the same boom time at all. In fact the outlier green dots there - a city that isolated but didn't grow - is in Kentucky. It looks to me a little spurious therefore to use growth of employment, manufacturing output, banking assets etc from 1910-1920 as the Y term measure of success of policy X when it cant possibly be the true explanatory factor.

The controls used to correct for the heterogeneous nature of the cities are inadequate - population in 1910 is a control so by that measure presumably boom time LA is the same as any other east coast city that had the same population at that point in time but was growing nowhere near as fast.

If it was true - and I am not being flippant here - then the data would show that what caused Seattle's employment to double was not that it was west coast small city boomtime but that it was *because* of its restrictive social distance policies. There is a massive "something else going on" in the data. Looking at the cities I'm pretty sure I could have a decent line of best fit by just looking at growth in the previous period to explain the growth in the next that is attributed to a policy response here. 

For the avoidance of any doubt, I support doing something about corona, I dont want to see needless deaths, I have been socially isolating to the max and longer and harder than government recommends. But this evidence is really fishy to me - I think it should have been filtered out and so i wonder what else gets through to support a certain position, like a high death rate to make the case.

I am not saying that we should do nothing or that there wouldn't be an economic cost of doing nothing. I am just looking at this bit of analysis that is being used to relate 1918 to 2020 and finding it a bit lacking.

[seankenny]

Murph - did you look at the full paper that the medium post is based on? It is interesting but I'm not sure how robust it is. I totally agree that the control for population isn't good enough, nor is using the 1914 proportion of manufacturing workers given the changes in manufacturing due to WW1, which I assume were noticeable. I suppose in their defence they could argue that the west coast boom at that time was much more based on agriculture (which they mention) and resource extraction (which they don't), and how much extra manufacturing capacity was added in the west over the intervening four years... I have no idea either way tbh.

What I think is useful is that the social distancing and other stringent efforts to contain the pandemic didn't seem to change the overall growth path too much, ie those west coast cities were still growing. That also seems to be the take away from chart #16 in the original article.

And also to add that not only have I been sick with what I strongly suspect is coronavirus (a friend returned to Germany and tested positive), some family friends of ours currently have their grandma in hospital, severely ill. I'm taking the human aspect very seriously - but I find these questions really interesting.